Dodge 2014 Construction Outlook
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Dodge 2014 Construction Outlook Cliff Brewis Senior Director Operations
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Dodge 2014 Construction Outlook. Cliff Brewis Senior Director Operations. U.S. Macroeconomic Outlook. On balance, the pace of economic expansion remains lackluster. GDP Pattern : History Forecast 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Dodge 2014 Construction Outlook
Dodge 2014Construction OutlookCliff BrewisSenior Director Operations
U.S. Macroeconomic Outlook
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On balance, the pace of economic expansion remains lackluster.
GDP Pattern:
History Forecast 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014+2.5% +1.8% +2.8% +1.6% +2.7%
Shape of Recovery:• Private Sector Dependency• Sequestration• Government Uncertainty• Fed Tapering• Improving Local Conditions
U.S. Macroeconomic Outlook
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Employment growth has also been tepid.
State Performance: Employment
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Three unique markets
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
U.S. Construction Market Outlook –
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The Dodge Momentum Index offers insight on what’s ahead.
Residential- Single Family- Multifamily
Nonresidential- Stores- Offices- Hotels- Other Commercial- Manufacturing- Education- Healthcare- Other Institutional
Nonbuilding- Highways & Bridges- Environmental Public Works- Other Public Works- Electric Utilities
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U.S. Construction Market Outlook –Percent Change, 2009-2014, for Total Construction Starts and Major Sectors.
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2013 Value
27% of Total Const.
32% of Total Const.
41% of Total Const.
Los Angeles/Orange County: Single Family
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Continued strong contribution
‘$000.00
Los Angeles/Orange County: Multi Residential
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Continued strength.
‘$000.00
Los Angeles/Orange County: Retail
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Modest recovery
‘$000.00
Los Angeles/Orange County: Hotel
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Occupancy and revenue per room are up
‘$000.00
Los Angeles/Orange County: Health
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We expect consolidations to limit construction
‘$000.00
Los Angeles/Orange County: Education
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Bottomed out, but not recovering yet.
‘$000.00
Los Angeles/Orange County: Highways
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Expected to soften after 2014
‘$000.00
Los Angeles/Orange County: Totals
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Unquestionable Improvement
‘$000.00
Structure 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014EDUC 1,928,343$ 3,255,471$ 1,183,684$ 2,016,495$ 1,193,546$ 1,185,499$ 1,148,236$ 1,205,727$
68.8% -63.6% 70.4% -40.8% -0.7% -3.1% 5.0%HEALTH 393,261$ 384,757$ 1,084,142$ 331,297$ 713,891$ 365,822$ 174,842$ 300,089$
-2.2% 181.8% -69.4% 115.5% -48.8% -52.2% 71.6%HIGHWAY 801,558$ 771,075$ 1,051,431$ 999,188$ 984,876$ 961,821$ 807,351$ 899,660$
-3.8% 36.4% -5.0% -1.4% -2.3% -16.1% 11.4%HOTEL 746,149$ 168,785$ 64,279$ 41,917$ 43,758$ 238,677$ 278,799$ 392,469$
-77.4% -61.9% -34.8% 4.4% 445.4% 16.8% 40.8%MULTI RES 2,713,135$ 1,755,974$ 341,702$ 518,713$ 1,203,042$ 1,816,763$ 1,363,349$ 1,847,767$
-35.3% -80.5% 51.8% 131.9% 51.0% -25.0% 35.5%OFFICE 766,938$ 430,160$ 322,480$ 187,487$ 214,915$ 278,535$ 356,031$ 561,973$
-43.9% -25.0% -41.9% 14.6% 29.6% 27.8% 57.8%ONEFAM 2,540,555$ 1,480,877$ 1,267,419$ 1,496,213$ 1,475,596$ 1,862,355$ 2,684,424$ 3,521,727$
-41.7% -14.4% 18.1% -1.4% 26.2% 44.1% 31.2%PUB 112,603$ 170,393$ 110,549$ 105,097$ 358,489$ 141,099$ 80,272$ 83,076$
51.3% -35.1% -4.9% 241.1% -60.6% -43.1% 3.5%RETAIL 662,245$ 740,580$ 291,767$ 330,954$ 339,124$ 441,201$ 340,899$ 432,562$
11.8% -60.6% 13.4% 2.5% 30.1% -22.7% 26.9%SEWERS 645,512$ 622,493$ 227,269$ 149,272$ 87,656$ 136,334$ 493,459$ 249,552$
-3.6% -63.5% -34.3% -41.3% 55.5% 261.9% -49.4%WAREH 276,672$ 176,357$ 140,835$ 55,585$ 106,343$ 127,446$ 162,960$ 191,206$
-36.3% -20.1% -60.5% 91.3% 19.8% 27.9% 17.3%WATER 269,706$ 551,484$ 361,904$ 260,898$ 304,555$ 269,653$ 260,729$ 279,249$
104.5% -34.4% -27.9% 16.7% -11.5% -3.3% 7.1%TOTAL 15,556,461$ 13,251,992$ 9,064,543$ 10,266,895$ 10,499,030$ 11,832,592$ 13,423,015$ 13,946,086$
-14.8% -31.6% 13.3% 2.3% 12.7% 13.4% 3.9%
QUESTIONS?
•Cliff Brewis•Senior Director Operations•McGraw-Hill Construction/Dodge•510.566.0913•[email protected]
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