DOCUMENT RESUME

ED 316 517 SP 031 997

TITLE Teacher Supply & Demand Guidebock. Strategic Planningfor Association Program Development.

INSTITUTION National Education Association, Washington, D.C.PUB DATE 87

NOTE 36p.; Tables in colored boxes may not reproduceclearly.

PUB TYPE Reports - Descriptive (141)

EDRS PRICE MF01/PCO2 Plus Postage.DESCRIPTORS Elementary Secondary Education; Minority Group

Teachers; *Policy Formation; *Program Development;*Teacher Certification; *Teacher Retirement; TeacherSalaries; *Teacher Supply and Demand; TeachingConditions

ABSTRACTThis guidebook identifies supply and demand concepts

and gives examples of how some National Education Association stateand local affiliates are addressing the teacher supply and demandissue. While not intended as a how-to manual for conductingfull-scale teacher supply and demand studies, the book focuses onsome of the problems associated with current teacher supply anddemand projections and suggests some teacher labor market issues andideas that affiliates can pursue. Six tables are included. (JD)

***********************************************************************

Reproductions supplied by EDRS are the best that can be madefrom the original document.

**********************************************************************

)t.

A

A

I A

.5

A

A

004

rstazaz

Figl

"PERMISSION TO REPRODUCE THISMATERIAL HAS BEEN GRANTED BY

..e.e.-G111

TO 7.1E EDUCATIONAL RESOURCESINFORMATION CENTER (ERIC)."

V

1

11 ip

e

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATIONOffice of Educational Research and ImprovementEDUCATIONAL RESOURCES INFORMATION

CENTER (ERIC)

0 This document has been reproduced asreceived Irom the person or organizationOriginating it

Cr Minor changes have been made to improvereproduction quality

Points of view or opinions slatedtn thtsdocumen! do not necessarily represent officialOERI Oosdion or policy

A4. A k

D A 0 A 01O 0 A jit 0"

8 ST COPY AVAILABLE

2

re I

AIL

---

t.

N

NATIONALEDUCATIONASSOCIATION12Q1 16th Street. i./VasitingtotriADt: 20036

I

'11*

Profess pion arid Oryanientional Devolopinnitt/Hesei:irch Division

(4,

ti

TEACHERSUPPLY &DEMANDGUIDEBOOK

STRATEGIC PLANNINGFOR ASSOCIATIONPROGRAM DEVELOPMENT

CONTENTSForeword 1

Will There Be a Shortage of Teachers? 2

"Not Quantity but Quality" 3

The Components of Teacher Supply andDemand 4

The Bottle and the Bucket 6

Behavioral Factors 7

The Role of Stateand Local Affiliates 10

Monitoring Supply and Demand 11

Projecting Supply and Demand 12

Analyzing Supply and Demand 20

Sources of Data 24

NEA Affiliate Teaches Supply and DemandProjects 26

References 29

Notes 30

Reproduction: No part of this report may be re-produced in any form without permission fromNEA Research, except by NEA-affiliated associa-tions. Any reproduction of the report materialsmust include the usual credit line and the copy-right notice. Address communications to Editor,NEA Research.

Copyright CO 1987 by theRitional Education Association

All Rights Reserved

"While questions, about teacher supply anddemand can be examined empirically, issues ofteacher shortage are ultimately political."

Linda Darling-Hammond (1987)RAND Corporation

FOREWORD

This guidebook intends to meet threeobjectives:

1. Provide a general understanding of theteacher shortage issue

2. Focus on some of the problems associat-ed with current teacher supply and de-mand projections

3. Suggest some teacher labor market is-sues and ideas that affiliates can pursue.

This publication is not meant to be ahow-to manual for conducting a full-scale teach-er supply and demand study. The reality is thatresources, time, and data availability prohibitsuch a study from being completed by moststate and local affiliates.

Currattly, there i' a great deal of debateabout teacher shortages. The possible existence,expectation, severity, and nature of a teachershortage are all points of contention. If teachershortages are acknowledged, then solutions foralleviating or preventing a shortage will cause de-bate. Teachers must participate in these debatesto protect their interests, their profession, andthe quality of education received by theirstudents.

State and local affiliates have available tothem a wide range of actions regarding teacherlabor market issues. They indude activitiesthat

Pressure state agencies to gather andcompile better supply and demand data.

Monitor and react to detrimental stop-gap policies such as emergencycertification.

Promote productive, long-term solutionsto shortages such as increased compen-sation and better conditions of work.

Criticize reports that misrepresent theteacher labor market situation.

Analyze individual behavior, 1 factorssuch as why teachers leave theprofession.

The guidebook gives examples of howsome NEA state and local affiliates are address-ing the teacher supply and demand issues.

Inquiries regarding the contents of this pub-lication may be directed to Edward Hurley of theNEA Research Staff.

1

WILL THERE BE A SHORTAGE OF TEACHERS?

"Should increasing numbers of college stu-dents choose careers in occupations other thanteaching because of better salaries and workingconditions, then the shortage of new teachergraduates could become more severe."

National Center for EducationStatistics (1985)

U.S.Department of Education

"Indications, therefore, are that no shortageof teachers will develop."

Daniel Hecker (1986)Division of Occupational OutlookBureau of Labor Statistics

"After years of teacher surplus, in 1985 jobsand job seekers were roughly in balance. For atleast the ext 10 years, however, there will bemore jobs than applicants."

Carnegie Forum on Education andthe Economy (1986)

".. . contrary to predictions, there seems tobe no problem finding enough qualified teachersto meet demand."

Emily Feistritzer (1986)National Center for EducationInformation

"Contrary to what many modern-dav edu-cators tend to assume, teacher shortages havebeen commonplace throughout the twentiethcentury."

Michael Sedlak and StevenSchlossman (1986)

Center for the Study of the Teach-ing Profession

RAND Corporation

2

IPERSONNEL

"NOT QUANTITY BUT QUALITY"

Policies designed to alleviate shortages re-quire an understanding of the nature of the short-age. In general parlance, shortage means notenough teachers. A shortage in economic termsoccurs when the number of individuals with de-sired qualifications who are willing to offer theirservices as teachers at a wage the schools are of-fering falls short of the number of teaching open-ings that exist.

"Desired qualifications" dictate the short-age perception. The degree to which a shortageexists depends upon what is being measured.For instance, here are three different measures ofteacher shortage:

Number of unfilled positionsNumber of uncertified* teachersNumber of misassigned teachers,

The shortage measure that is utilized cangive results ranging from a disturbing situation toa "no use for alarm" scenario. Figure A illus-trates .low the results of the three measures list-ed above differ.

Number of unfilled positions, number ofuncertified teachers, and number of misassignedteachers are countable and can be monitored. Itshould also be recognized that a shortage ofteachers can be described in more qualitativeterms: a lack of individuals having the dedicationand motivation to teach, a genuine empathywith students, and the skills nreded to carry outthe responsibilities of effective teaching.

The argument over the teacher shortage isan argument about the definition of teacher. TheNEA insists that all professional teaching posi-tions be filled by fully certified individuals whileit simultaneously attempts to have significantinfluence in defining the criteria that constitute acertified teacher.

"Not quantity but quality" must be the par-amount guideline for any teacher supply and de-mand policy. NEA affiliates can serve both aspromoters and watchdogs of this principle.

* Refer to notes on page 3 O.

Figure A

NUMBER OFTEACHERS PER 1,000

1.611111111111111111111111111E111

NUMBER OFUNFILLEDPOSITIONS

12.3

NUMBER OFUNCERTIFIED

TEACHERS& UNFILLEDPOSITIONS

68.0

NUMBER OFMISASSIGNED

TEACHERS

3

THE COMPONENTS OF TEACHER SUPPLYAND DEMAND

he Nature of Teacher Supply andDemand

Any supply and demand prof le at the na-tional level can mask differences between indi-vidual states. Even a state supply ani demandprofile can be accompanied by substantial sur-pluses and shortages of well-qualified teachersat the local level because of varying conditions ofwork, compensation, and quality of life amongdistricts. For instance, rural and inner-cityschools have a particularly difficult time findingand keeping qualified teachers.

Demand Components

A number of components combine to deter-mine the number of additional teachers neededto be hired in any given school year. If supplyand demand are initially in balance (there are ex-actly enough qualified individuals walling to fillvacant positions at current salaries), any changein the following components should cause achange in the number of teachers,needed:

1. Enrollment Projections. If average classsize remains constant, an increase in stu-dent enrollment will result in an in-creased need for teachers. The NationalCenter for Education Statistics (1985) pro-jects that from now through 199) publicschool enrollment should increase nation-ally by about 7 percent.

2. Retirement Rate. As teachers retire, theymust be replaced. When retirement ratesaccelerate, as is currently predicted inmany states, then the need for newteachers will increase.

3. Class Size. The number of students as-signed to a teacher has a direct effect onthe total demand for teachers. Ent( Ilmentincreases can be absorbed by makingclass sizes larger instead of hiring more

4

teachers. if more individualized instruc-tion is required, smaller dass sizes andadditional teachers will also be required.

4. Attrition. Teachers may leave theirteaching positions for reasons other thanretirement. For example, they may taketeaching positions in other schools ordistricts, become school administrators,pursue other occupations, or devote timeto raising a family. New teachers must befound to take their place.

5. Graduation Requirements. Higher gradu-ation standards usually mean more indi-vidualized instruction, and additional re-quirements mean additional classes toteach More teachers are needed to helpall students meet the additional require,ments and higher standards.

Table 1 summarizes the effect of a change inthe various demand components on the need forteachers. The depicted change for each variableis made with the assumption that other demandvariables do not change and that teacher qualityis not compromised.

111111111111!

TABLE 1.CHANGES IN TEACHER DEMAND

Teacher supply and demand should be ad-dressed primarily at the state and local levels, notonly because of different situations amongstates and districts, but also because most teach-er labor market related policy is set at state andlocal levels.

The degree to which teacher shortages existalso varies within individual schools. Shortageareas that deserve special attention include

Minority Teachers. Minority teachersare diminishing at a time when minor-ity-group children are the fastest growingsegment of the nation's public schoolpopulation. One projection finds that in1990 only 5 percent of the nation's teach-ing force will be members of a minoritygroup, down from about 12.5 percent in1980 (Rodman, 1985). Black and HispanicK-12 student enrollment was approxi-mately 24.2 percent of total student en-rollment in 1980 and is expected to be26.3 percent of total student enrollmentby 1990 (U.S. Department of Commerce,1987).

Specialty Subject Teachers. Positions incertain secondary school subjects aremore difficult to fill than other teachingpositions. Most notably, mathematics,science, and bilingual education are threeareas in which finding qualified teachershas continually proved difficult.

A shortage of teachers will exist until awell-trained, knowledgeable, and dedicatedteacher can be placed in every classroom. Nodistrict should he faced with perpetual teachershortages that hinder the quality of educationfor their students.

Supply Components

The supply of teachers refers to the numberof qualified individuals willing to provide theirservices as teachers at current compensation lev-els and under present conditions of work.

1. College Graduates. The number of teach-ers newly prepared to teach represents asegment of teacher supply. A certain per-centage of recent college graduates havethe required training and coursework tobecome beginning teachers, A percent-age of these individuals actively searchfor a teaching job.

2. Reserve Pool of Teachers. The reservepool of teachers includes individualswho are qualified to teach but are pres-ently not teaching. It includes individ.uals who received training but never be-came teachers, former teachers who leftteaching to pursue other occupations, for-mer teachers who left teaching to raisefamilies, teachers who moved to otherdistricts without the promise of a job,and teachers who lost their jobs due to re-trenchment. Only a small fraction of thetotal reserve pool are willing to teach atcurrent compensation levels and underexisting conditions of work. This smallfraction can be counted as supply. Themajority of the reserve pool representsonly potential supply.

10

THE BOTTLE AND THE BUCKET

Figure B illustrates the teacher supply anddemand components.

Pictured are a bucket filled with water anda bottle. The water in the bucket represents thetotal population of teachers currently working.

The bottle holds the potential supply ofqualified teachers. This supply represents recentcollege graduates and reserve pool members.

The bucket represents the total demand forteachers. The size of the bucket is primarily de-pendent on student enrollment, pupil-teacherratios, and student graduation standards. Thebucket needs to be full for teacher supply anddemand to be in balance. A less-than-full bucketrepresents a shortage of teachers. An overflow-ing bucket represents a surplus.

The flow of water from the bottle to thebucket represents the number of individuals ac-tively seeking teaching positions. The leaking ofwater from the hole in the bottom of the bucketrepresents teachers leaving the profession. If thebucket is to remain filled to capacity (teacher sup-ply and demand are in balance), then theamount of water flowing from the bottle mustequal the amount of water leaking from the bot-tom of the bucket.

The size of the bucket becomes larger whenenrollment increases, average class size declines,tougher graduation Standards are implemented,or some combination of these changes occurs.With a larger bucket, the flow from the bottleneeds to exceed the leak from the bucket tomaintain a su olyldemand balance.

The flow of water both into and out of thebucket depends on the "tilt" of the bottle and thesize of the leak. The tilt of the bottle determinesthe propensity of new college graduates and re-serve pool teachers to actively seek teaching po-sitions. The size of the leak determines the rate atwhich individuals leave the teaching professioneither permanently or temporarily.

The purity of the water is the equivalent ofteacher quality. Filtration is the setting of stan-dards. Filtration lets the dean water into thebucket and keeps the "polluted" water uut. Oneway to fill the bucket when not enough water isflowing from the bottle is to remove the filter andaugment the dean water with polluted water(i.e., emergency certificates and misassignments).

FIGURE RNEW COLLEGE

GRADUATESRESERVE POOL

11

BEHAVIORAL FACTORS

"Although it is nothing more than a com-monplace, it needs to be emphasized that thesupply of qualified teachers relates directly tothe attractiveness of teaching careers."

--Panel on Statistics on Supply andDemand for Precollege Science andMathematics Teachers, National Re-search Council (1987)

There are a number of factors that influencethe quantity of individuals willing to teach (helpdetermine the tilt of the bottle). The teacher be-havioral factors indude-

1, CompensationBeginning salaryCareer earningsEmployee benefits

2, Conditions of Work (job Satisfaction)Hours of workJob resourcesAdministrative supportDecision-making discretionAmount of stressOrderly environment

3. Job Availability (Regional Unemploy-ment Rate)

4. Cost of Educational TrainingRequirements

Loan forgivenessScholarshipsTuition reimbursements

5. State and Local Educational StaffingPolicies

Alternative certificationEmergency certification

LI MisassignmentsL] Part-time employment policy

Early retirement policy.

The above factors affect primarily the fu-ture supply of teachers. Some of these behavioralfactors also affect the attrition rate (usually re-ferred to as a demand variable). Conditions ofwork, careers earnings, and early retirementpolicies are examples of factors that influence thepropensity for teachers to leave the profession(the size of the leak).

Compensation. Increasing the level ofteacher salaries, both beginning salaries and sala-ries throughout a teaching career, and providingmore employee benefits should increase the sup-ply of individuals who are willing to becometeachers. The increased salaries and benefitsmust be relative to the salaries and benefits ofother occupations requiring a college education.If salaries and benefits for teachers increase atthe same rate as they do in comparable occupa-tions, the net result theoretically would be nochange in the potential supply of individuals will-ing to teach.

An increase in compensation relative toother professions will tilt the bottle at more of anangle, causing more college students to examineteaching as a possible career and enticing morecertificated individuals out of the reserve pooland into the dassroom. Recent U.S. Departmentof Labor figures suggest that, nationwide, teach-er salaries are beginning to increase at a fasterrate than salaries for other occupations. If such atrend continues, the teaching profession will beable to attract the additional qualified individ-uals needed to improve educational quality.

Higher salaries and benefits will also slowdown attrition (reduce the leak). Teachers will beless likely to switch to selling real estate or be-coming bu;:iness managers when they can stopworrying about making a decent living.

Conditions of Work. Individuals care aboutthe quality of their work environment as well asthe monetary rewards associated with particularemployment alternatives. If the intrinsic rewardsof teaching are enhanced, the primary result willbe a decrease in the attrition rate. Polls havedemonstrated that many teachers leave the oc-cupation or transfer to a different school becauseconditions of work negatively affect their profes-sional performance (e.g., see Louis Harris and As-sociates, 1985).

job Availability. If unemployment exists,an occupation that needs employees will be ableto attract some qualified people just on the basisof job availability. Presently, the number of college students nationwide indicating an interestin teaching has slightly increased because of Thisfact. Recent media publicity about impendingteacher shortage will help somewhat to increaseteacher supply.

In addition, the unemployment rate affectsattrition rates. During periods of significant un-employment, teachers are less likely to leavetheir jobs because of fears about not being re-hired or because jobs in alternative occupationsare scarce.

Cost of Educational Training Requirements.College students who pay for their educationmake an investment with an expectation thatthey will receive a future return on that invest-ment. The cost of a college education has in-creased dramatically during the past 10 years.Students are accumulating large debts. In somecases, because of burdensome loan payments,graduates are avoiding the lower paying careers,such as teaching, to pursue more lucrative jobs.

Loan forgiveness, scholarships, and tuitionreimbursements for students interested in teach-ing are policies that would reduce the costs oftraining. These policies would have a positive, al-

beit small, effect on the supply of new graduateslooking for teaching positions.

State and Local Educational Staffing Pali-des. State and local school staffing policies areexternal institutional forces introduced into theteacher labor market. Most policies aimed atteacher supply are implemented to ensure thatthere are enough employees to fill dassrooms.Policies allowing for emergency certification, al-ternative certification, and misassiginnents do in-crease teacher supply. However, the increasedoes not suggest a Hit of the bottle but rather aninflow of polluted water. This water is taintedbecause it represents a lowering of professionalstandards. Less-than-qualified people are al-lowed into the teaching ranks.

13

From where do these harmful policies ema-nate? Alternative certification procedures are di-rectly controlled by a state agency. A 1986 sur-vey indicated that 26 states had alternativecertification programs (American Association ofColleges for Teacher Education, 1986).

Emergency certificates are issued by stateagencies, but local districts have the discretion ofmaking the request (Roth, 1986). Assigningteachers to classes is done within state guidelines(if they exist), but local administrators have agreat deal of clout in the process (Roth, 1986). Inmany states, misassignment of teachers is legal.In states having guidelines, illegal misassign-ments usually occur without detection (Robin.son, 1985).

A less harmful means of increasing the sup-ply of teachers is for districts to implement part-time and shared-time teacher policies. A portionof the fully certified teachers in the reserve pool,especially homemakers, would return to teach-ing if flexible schedules were to be provided. Inaddition, current teachers planning to leavetheir jobs to raise a family may want to stay on apart-time basis.

Early retirement plans induce veteranteachers to leave the profession before their nor-mal retirement date. Such plans are a help in re-ducing a surplus of teachers. In a shortage periodsuch policies contribute to the lack of qualifiedteachers. Gary Watts, NEA Assistant ExecutiveDirector, suggests that retirement policies be ad-justed so that recently retired teachers could con-tinue to receive their full retirement benefitsand still earn a regular teaching salary. The extramonetary incentive would help retain staff eligi-ble for retirement and also attract retirees backinto teaching (Watts, 1986).

TABLE 2.TEACHER SUPPLY AND DEMAND:CAUSES AND EFFECTS

I

THE ROLE OF STATE AND LOCAL AFFILIATES

Teacher labor mark-t theory presents a use-ful tool for state and local affiliates to advocatefor much needed changes in the educational are-na. A great deal of debate will center around themeans for solving the shortage. The solutionswill have a substantial impact on the teachingprofession.

A national perspective of the teacher labormarket is valuable because it serves to summa-rize the general trends of teacher supply andteacher demand. But it's like the weather: Whileit may be winter across the nation, the local pic-ture shows a wide variety of temperatures andprecipitation. Because teacher supply and de-mand is so localized, to estimate the degree towhich a shortage does or does not exist, why itexists, and what can be done about it, optimallyit should be researched at the state and locallevels.

Three general approaches can be taken thataddress the teacher supply and demand issue:

1. Monitoring. State and local affiliates canserve a watchdog function by checking tosee if school districts are compromisingeducational quality through the use ofdetrimental staffing practices. The moni-toring operation would produce descrip-tive statistics about key indicators ofschool staffing policies and practices.

2. Projections. State and local affiliates canhelp create an awareness of the possibili-ty of critical teacher shortages in the com-ing years. If resources and data are avail-able. affiliates can make their own in-house projections of individual demandand supply components, some combina-tion of components, or pm-Ably project acomplete supply and demand outlook.

10

An increasing number of state govern-ments and public policy institutions areissuing reports that attempt to projectteacher supply and demand years into thefuture. These reports can prove useful foradvocacy purposes, although they shouldbe carefully scrutinized. Teacher supplyand demand projections are only as validas the assumptions on which they arebased.

3. Analysis. State and local affiliates can ad-vocate constructive solutions to the teach-er shortage. Establishing behavioral con-tent in the supply and demand arena canlead policymakers to appropriateremedies.

Promoting greater teacher compensationand better conditions of work as solutions to theshortage requires convincing data. Data can becollected that establish causality among supplyand demand variables.

A sequence of steps should be followed tomake any of the three approaches to teacher sup-ply and demand operational:

Li Establish the purpose of the analysis.

L.] Collect enough data to construct a cur-rent profile.

Li If possible, collect historical data thatmay point to significant trends.

Li Evaluate and interpret the data.

I 1 If so warranted, create an awarenessabout an alarming situation.

L Advocate for constructive solutions.

MONITORING SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Teacher Staffing Practices. The number ofteachers with emergency certificates combinedwith the number of teachers who are teachingout-of-field can be a fairly good representation ofcurrent teacher shortages, especially in specificfields, When positions are difficult to fill in a par-ticular field, it can be expected that teachers notcertified in that field will be commonly used tofill vacancies. An approach should taken todocument and publicize the number of teacherswho are misassigned in each district in the stateand to document and publicize the number ofnoncertificated teachers in each district in thestate,

A monitoring approach would serve thelong-term interests of the educational system, itsstudents, and the general public by serving twopurposes:

I. The publicity increases the pressure onstate legislatures and school districts toraise teachers' salaries and improve con-ditions of work. Such initiatives wouldattract larger numbers of well-qualifiedyoung people into the profession.

2. Attracting more well-qualified individ-uals into teaching increases public confi-dence in the abilities of teachers and inthe profession as a whole, thereby af-fording some hope of sustaining the pres-sure for high salaries and salary growthbeyond the period of immediateshortage.

Assemblage of Data. Data need to be gath-ered relating teacher Assignments to teacher qual-ifications. Examples of questions relating tostaffing practices might be

How much control does the principalhave over defining and filling vacancies?

How many vacancies were difficult to fillor were not filled?

El How were vacancies filled? Were uncer-tified teachers hired? Were class sizes in-creased? Were current teachers reas-signed to classes that they had notpreviously taught?

Determining the number of teachers whoare misassigned requires a working definition ofthe relationship between certification areas andteaching fields. It is not always clear from one'steaching certificate which courses may be legiti-mately taught.

Judgmental decisions on what constitutesmisassigned teacher have to be made whendrawing conclusions about a possible shortage.For instance, in small rural schools, teachers of-ten cover diverse subject areas, some of whichdo not fall within their area of certification. Sucha situation may be a consequence of the way arural school organization must be structured rath-er than representing a teacher shortageproblem.

11

PROJECTING SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Looking Into the Futur

From a policy perspective, it is important tohave an impression about the future need forteachers as well as a foresight about whetherthis need can be met. Given the relatively smallpercentage of college students currently trainingto become new teachers, the greater the need foradditional teachers in the future, the better thechances that overall teacher quality will slip un-less compensation and conditions of work areimproved.

An affiliate basically has four options whenconsidering the use of supply and demand pro-jections for advocacy purposes. First, if the data,time, and resources are available, the affiliate cando or contract to do a comprehensive teachersupply and demand study. By presenting possi-ble teacher shortage scenarios five and ten yearsinto the future based on accurate data and feasi-ble assumptions, the study can cause a realiza-tion among the general public and public officialsthat unless remedial measures are implement-ed, there simply will not be enough qualifiedteachers to instruct the coming generation.

The second option is to concentrate on pro-jections for one or two of the demand variables.Data availability primarily defines the feasibilityof making projections. If data are not available toproduce a comprehensive supply and demandstudy (which is probably true in a majority of thestates), then choosing a variable for which datado exist and then making future projections forthat variable alone can still prove useful.

Although a possible future teacher shortageis not quantified with this second option, the pro-jection of an individual shortage variable, suchas enrollment, can still provide evidence to poli-cymakers that constructive long-term staffingpolicies urgently need to be considered. For a dis-trict experiencing significant population growth.enrollment projections take on critical impor-tance. In the same vein, the value of retirement

12

projections escalates for states with a relativelyexperienced teacher population.

The third option is for affiliates to use exist-ing teacher supply and demand studies for advo-cacy purposes. Due to increasing concern abouta lack of teachers, more and more governmentand academic institutions are studying the sup-ply and demand situation in their state. Somestudies may provide valuable evidence of alooming state or local teacher bhortage. Otherstudies may make dubious assumptions, usepoor methodolog , and misrepresent the presentas well as the future supply and demand pic-ture. Affiliates should be openly critical of studiesthat have little reason for drawing a conclusion.

The final option for affiliates is to avoid pro-jections altogether. The severe limitations im-posed by a lark of accessible data, the time in-volved, the cost, and questionable validity of theresults may dissuade the use of supply and de-mand projections for advocacy purposes. The al-ternative to supply and demand projections aresupply and demand relationships, which is a top-ic discussed later in this guidebook.

Projections vs. PredictionsIt is important to understand the difference

between a projection and a prediction and theimplications of that difference. In terms of teach-er supply and demand, a projection is an esti-mate of the possibility and severity of a teachershortage in the future, based on current or pasttrends, Present teacher supply and demand rela-tionships are "projected" forward to determine ifa teacher shortage could develop in the future.

A prediction is a more positive statement.A teacher shortage will occur by 1990" repre-

sents a prediction. Predictions are made basedon observation, analysis, and scientific reason-ing. Enrollment levels and retirement rates canbe projected with good "predictive" accuracy. Fu-ture attrition rates or the numbers of studentsenrolling in teacher education programs in 1990are projections with very little "predictive"power. None of the teacher supply and demandmodels used by state education agencies haveany predictive power because they base theirshortage prognoses on current or past teachersupply and attrition trends.

Due to current limitations of knowledgeand methodology, only teacher shortage projec-tions can be made, It would be nice to be able to

FIGURE C

predict, for instance, how many qualified individ-uals in the reserve pool would offer their ser-vices as teachers if teacher salaries were in-creased by 10 percent, but such research is onlyin its infancy. Current projections should not bejudged by their eventual accuracy as predic-dons. The value of projections is that they can de-pict the possible consequences of keeping thestatus quo.

Projecting Demand

Many assumptions are made about the in-dividual demand variables when proj ectingteacher demand. The assumptions, many ofwhich are grounded in opinions of what consti-tutes appropriate educational conditions, de-serve particularly close attention when makingprojections or reviewing other models. Providedbelow is a brief discussion of the various demandvariables.

Enrollments. Many state and local agenciesor institutions make population projections byage and/or enrollment projections, years intothe future (see, for example, Figure CI. Such pro-jections are valuable for determining in whichgeographical areas teachers will be needed.

2000.01 PROJECTIONCHANGE IN K-12 STUDENT POPULATION

BASE YEAR 1985.86

NINIMMINOMINNIn

riType IInulincrease over 10%

Type IIincrease between 0.1 and 9.9

Type IIIdecrease between 0.1 to 9,9

IType IVdecrease over 1)%

FROM: Voice. Jan iary 19. 1987.Pennsylvania StateEducation Association

SOURCES: Pennyslvania State Population Research Centerof the Pennsylvania State University

Pennsylvania Department of EducationPSEA Research Department

13

Enrollment projections are usually on tar-get. They are based on fertility rates, migrationtrends, historical analysis of birth cohort-to-grade survival rates, and grade-to-grade retentionpatterns. Future changes in parental preferencesfor private versus public schooling arid changesin dropout rates are the most likely events dis-turbing enrollment projections.

Pupil-Teacher Ratios. Once increased en-rollment is projected, it is divided by a pupil-teacher ratio to calculate how many additionalteachers will be needed to meet that additionalenrollment. Many of the teacher supply and de-mand studies assume that the current pupil-teacher ratio reflects the number of teachers de-manded per pupil. This can be an importantpoint of contention when reviewing demandprojections.

A slight change in the pupil-teacher ratioused to project demand can bring about a signifi-cant change in the projected number of teachersdemanded. Affiliates should set their owngroundrules as to what pupil-teacher ratioshould be used in the demand calculation. A pu-pil-teacher ratio that reflects the realities of theclassroom and educational improvement willthen optimally reflect the number of teachersper pupil demanded.

Retirement Rates. The rate at which teach-ers leave the profession due to retirement can inmost cases be projected accurately , There existsa correlation between the retirement rate andagelexperience of teachers. A district that has adisproportional number of experienced teachersshould have an accelerating retirement rate inthe near future. Age and experienc' of the teach-ing force can be gauged by examining surveydata or state pension records,

The rate at which administrators retire canalso be an important variable. Many teacherseventually become administrators. If the admin-istrator retirement rate accelerates, more teach-ers will be moving to fill these vacancies whichin turn will increase the number of teachervacancies,

14

Turnover Rates. A significant component ofteacher supply and demand is the rate at whichteachers leave their jobs prior to being eligiblefor retirement. Turnover is one of the most ques-tionable pieces of information in current teachersupply and demand studies. Most methodolo-gies employ a single assumption about the turn-over rate and use either a number based on thecurrent year's rate or a rate reflecting a turnovertrend during a number of past years.

Turnover is a function of many factors,among them being age. experience, gender, andsubject taught. As the composition of these fac-tors change in the future, so will the turnoverrate. For example, as the retirement rate acceler-ates, increasing numbers of younger teachers willbe hired to replace the experienced retiringteachers. Turnover is significantly higher forteachers in their first five years of employment.Based on just this particular factor, the futureturnover rate should be higher than thepresent rate.

There is a great deal of research to be ac-complished on turnover rate patterns and theircauses. Some of this research is important foradvocacy purposes and will be discussed in anupcoming section on analyzing turnover.

Educational Reform Measures. One of themain goals of the recent educational reformmovement is the imp:ementation of more strin-gent high school graduation standards. Imposedand proposed standards in many states requireadditional dasses in certain subject areas andmore individualized instruction. If increasedclass sizes are to be prevented, educational re-form will require more teachers, and most sup-ply and demand studies ignore such future re-form scenarios in their calculations.

Educational reform policies should be care-fully monitored. They may look beneficial at firstglance, but without the needed resources inplacemore teachers for instancereform poll-des could be self-defeating. State and local affili-ates should be prepared to sound an alarm overproposed "educational excellence" policies thatare potential follies because the resources need-ed to make these policies work G f. beingjanored.

Emergency Certification and Misassign-ments. Many teacher supply and demand studiesdo not account for the number of teachers cur-rently employed with emergency credentials, orwho are teaching out-of-field. As previouslymentioned, teachers who are not fully creden-tialed in the field in which they teach representa compromise of educational quality.

Projected teacher demand should includethat number of teachers needed if emergency cre-dentials are no longer allowed. If 300 membersof the current teaching force have emergency cer-tificates, then 300 should be added to the totalnumber of additional teachers demanded. Thenumber of additional teachers needed to replaceemergency credentialed teachers could be 'e-duced if emergency credentialed teachers fill-filled the certification requirements within a one-year time frame.

Integrating out-of-field teaching into the de-mand projections requires a definition of the de-gree to which teachers are outside their area ofcertification. If on average the total number ofout -of field teachers spend 50 percent of theirtime in areas outside their certification field, thenthe number of additional teachers needed willbe half of the total number of out-of-field teach-ers. For example, if 800 teachers are spending onaverage 50 percent of their time in subjects forwhich they aren't certified, then 400 should beadded to the total number of additional teachetsdemanded.

Table 3 presents an example of a typicalmethodology used by analysts to project teacherdemand. The numbers are purely hypotheticaland are provided only to demonstrate the pro-cess by which a total number of additionalteachers needed is reached. Table 3 shows a pro-jection one year into the future. Conventionalsupply and demand models usually project fiveand ten years into the future.

TABLE 3.PROJECTING DEMANDONE YEAR INTO THE FUTURE

CURRENT DATA: 2 50.000 students10.600 full-time teachers

15

First, the number of additional students tobe enrolled next year in addition to the currentstudent population is calculated. In this hypo-thetical example the student population is pro-jected to increase 4 percent, from 250,000 to260,000.

The additional 10,000 students is then di-vided by 23.6, the hypothetical current pupil-teacher ratio. The result indicates that 424 morefull-time teachers need to be hired to meet the in-creased enrollment.

To the 424 figure is added another 424teachers needed to replace those who will retireduring the next year (assumed to be 4 percent ofthe teaching force) and 636 teachers to replace in-dividuals who will leave teaching for reasonsother than retirement (assumed to be 6 percentof the teaching force).

In this example, a total of 1,484 additionalteachers will need to be hired next year if the as-sumptions hold true. As in many demand pro-jections, additional teachers needed to meet edu-cational reform measures and additionalteachers needed to replace those with emergencycredentials have inappropriately been left out ofthe calculations.

16

Projecting Supply

Supply projections are usually enveloped inconfusion and controversy. Theoretically, supplyshould be defined as the number of qualified in-dividuals who are willing to work as teachers atprevailing salary levels and under present work-ing conditions. Practically, this is a very difficultnumber to calculate.

The critical supply questions when makingprojections concern the definition of "qualified"supply and the propensities of individuals, bothnew teacher graduates and reserve pool mem-bers, to enter the teaching force. The best an-swers are to insist that only fully certified indi-viduals can b' defined as potential teachersupply and to assume that current teacher supplypropensities will exist in the future. The latteiassumption is based on the belief that unlessteaching presents itself as a relatively more at-tractive profession, the willingness of qualifiedpeople to enter or reenter teaching will not in-crease from year to year.

Three supply variables used most often insupply and demand models are discussed brieflybelow.

New Teachers Without Experience. Thenumber of newly trained individuals who wantto teach is one important source of supply. Pro-jections of this number have usually been basedon either of three pieces of data: students en-rolled in college education programs within thestate, new graduates of teacher training pro-grams, or newly certified teachers.

Whatever the statistic used, it must be ad-justed by some percentage to account for the factthat a substantial number of potential teacherseither lose interest in teaching as a career, do notmeet the licensing requirements for becoming ateacher, choose to delay their entrance intoteaching, or migrate to other states. Not all stu-dents graduate, not all graduates become certi-fied, and not all certified individuals apply forteaching positions within a state.

The percentage adjustment used to calcu-late a projection is usually based on the currentpercentage of potential new supply seeking

teaching jobs. By using the current propensity topursue a teaching job, the calculated projectedsupply number theoretically should reflect a con-dition of no improvement in the attractivenessof teaching as a career,

Most models use the number of individualshired as a measurement of current supply whenmaking projections. A supply number ideallyrepresents the number of qualified individualsactually desiring to be hired as a teacher. If thenumber of people currently looking for teachingjobs exceeds the number of jobs available, thena supply calculation based on number of peoplehired will be understated.

A countervailing factor is the geographicalimmobility of many teacher candidates. On astate level, the total number of graduates seek-ing teaching jobs may exceed the number of jobsavailable, suggesting an oversupply of teachergraduates. However, this oversupply could beconcentrated in a few high-paying districts inthe state, thereby masking shortages throughoutmost districts in the state. If college graduateslooking for teaching jobs cannot be attracted todistricts needing teachers, then a state shortageproblem will persist,

Teachers Moving from Other States. Cre-dentialed individuals arrive from other stateslooking for teaching jobs and become part ofteacher supply. They may move across state linesto follow a spouse, to pursue better opportuni-ties, or for other reasons. They can be newly cer-tified individuals or veteran teachers.

Projecting the number of teachers enteringfrom other states and adding to total future sup-ply is mostly conjecture, The variables that in-fluence interstate movement are numerous andcomplicated. The most common technique is touse the number of teachers who came from outof state during the most recent year as the num-ber who will come from out of state in futureyears.

The Reserve Pool. The reserve pool repre-sents the number of people presently not teach-ing but who may do so in the future. Some thinkthe reserve pool will be the solution of any possi-ble teacher shortage. More than half of the

teachers presently being hired are from the re-serve pool (National Education Association,1987).

The reserve pool is defined differently, de-pending on hiring practices. In some states, ev-eryone with a bachelor's degree is potentially inthe supply pool. Retired military personnel andretired corporate scientists are starting to be in-duded as members of the reserve pool. It is im-perative that state and local affiliates scrutinizethe boundaries that define the reserve pool inteacher supply and demand studies. The reservepool should ix limited to those individuals withvalid, up-to-date credentials.

The methodology for projecting future sup-ply from the reserve pool is comprised of twosteps. The first is to determine the size of the re-serve pool, and that should be only the numberof people with valid credentials who are avail-able to teach. The second step is to determine thenumber of reserve pool members who are likelyto apply for teaching jobs.

It may be fairly easy to find from state filesthe number of individuals that have valid teach-ing credentials. What is not easy is determiningthe number available to teach. From the totalnumber of individuals on file with valid teach-ing credent ds should be subtracted individualswho are current public school teachers, privateschool teachers with credentials, persons whohave retired, died, or become disabled, and indi-viduals who have moved away from the state.The net result is an approximation of the re-serve pool the number of individuals certifiedto teach but not presently teaching.

The reserve pool represents potential sup-ply but not actual supply. If teacher salaries wereto be tripled, then it would not be surprising ifmost everyone in the reserve pool started apply-ing for teaching jobs. It is safe to say that teachersalaries won't triple and that not everyone in thereserve pool wants to become a teacher. The re-alistic question is how many resr:rve pool mem-bers can be counted as actual supply for projec-tion purposes.

17

A minimal amount of research exists aboutthe likelihood of various members of the reservepool to seek teaching positions. Broad tenden-cies of reserve pool members to seek teachingjobs have been defined.

In ger ral, teachers on maternity or healthleave have a high probability of returning toteaching. Teachers who recently became victimsof a reduction-in-force also have a high probabili-ty of seeking a teaching job.

A little farther down the spectrum areteachers newly certified who for one reason oranother did not initially obtain teaching jobs.Many of these individuals will eventually seek ateaching position.

Teachers whose credentials are older andwho have been out of teaching for several yearsare less likely to reenter the teaching job market.Finally, people with teaching certificates whohave followed a completely different career

18

path for many years have little likelihood of everseeking a teaching position.

These observations are qualitative whilesupply and demand analyses are usually qtpati-tative, Most studies that attempt to project sup-ply use the number of reserve pool membershired as teachers in the current year as a substi-tute for estimating the number of future reservepool members who will actively seek a teachingposition.

Table 4 presents a typical methodologyused by analysts to project teacher supply for astate. Again, the assumptions and numbers pro-vided as examples are hypothetical.

TABLE 4.PROJECTING SUPPLYOC1E YEAR INTO THE FUTURE

IMIXII11011

All assumptions made when projectingteacher supply are based on the premise that thesupply situation in the current year will contin-ue to be the same supply situation in the follow-ing year. In the example, 250 students complet-ed teacher education programs in the stateduring the current year, so it is assumed that 250students will complete teacher education pro-grams in the coming year. Of the graduatingteacher education students, only 25 percent actu-ally pursued teaching jobs. This percentzoo isused to arrive at the 63 college graduates willingto be teachers a year into the future.

The largest portion of projected supply isfound in the reserve pool of certified teachers.The number of individuals who are certified toteach but are not presently teaching is estimatedto be about 45,000. Based on what occurred dur-ing the most recent hiring period, approximately2 percent of individuals in the reserve poolor900 peoplewill actively pursue a teaching job.

Fifty teachers who are projected to moveinto the state from other states and look forteaching jobs (the same number that came fromother states during the current year) are includedas part of teacher supply. Adding the collegegraduates prepared and desiring to teach, teach-ers who move from other states, and individualsfrom the reserve pool who now want to enter orreenter teaching results in a supply figure of1,013 for the coming year.

Projecting a Shortage

If the projected demand one year into thefuture is taken from Table 3, and the projectedsupply one year into the future is taken from Ta-ble 4, the number of additional teachers neededexceeds the number of additional teachers avail-able and the projected shortfall is 471. What doesa shortfall mean from a policy standpoint?

Administrators have a number of optionsto alleviate a projected shortfall. If they do noth-ing except publicize open positions, some of theneed might be fulfilled by qualified individualsfrom the reserve pool who will be attracted sole-ly by the availability of a job.

Administrators can also raise the number ofpupils-to-teacher ratio. In the example, if the pu-pil-teacher ratio is raised from 23.6 to 25.0. 24fewer teachers will be needed.

Certificates can be issued on an emergencybasis to individuals without the required train-ing. Alternative certification routes may be es-tablished to circumvent the prescribed prepara-tion needed to be an effective teacher.

These short-term solutions harm the quali-ty of education that students receive. The twomain long-term solutionsraising compensationand improving conditions of workwill providethe most powerful and lasting means for in-creasing teacher supply.

If an ideal future educational scenario issketchedlower pupil-teacher ratios, a fully certi-fied teacher in every dassroom, and a reservepool restricted to only those fully qualified toteachrather than a future scenario based onpresent conditions, the number of teachers need-ed increases and the number of qualified teachers available shrinks. A perceived teacher supply/demand balance is really a shortage; a projectedshortage increases in magnitude. For this reasonit is important to review and critique the as-sumptions used in any projection study.

"Supply will follow demand" is often heardfrom some teacher labor market observers,which implies that any shortage will eventuallydissipate over the long run. If jobs are available,they say, qualified individuals will soon beready to fill them.

Such optimism is not completely support-ed. Supply does not directly follow demand.What supply does react to is the perception ofteaching as a rewarding profession, both intrinsi-cally and monetarily. The greater the projectedshortage, the more districts must do to maketeaching an attractive occupation.

19

ANALYZING SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Analysis delves deeper into the teachershortage question than monitoring or projecting.In addition to reporting salient supply and de-mand statistics, the analysis function examinessupply and demand relationships. Trends areobserved, and causal relationships between vari-ables are evaluated to help determine policyneeds.

Four areas in which the analysis functioncan prove useful are the following:

Sources of teacher supply

Attrition for reasons other thanretirement

Teacher retrenchment

Variables that affect teacher supply,most notably compensation and condi-tions of work.

Analyzing Teacher Supply. Potential teach-er supply refers to qualified individuals willingand available to be hired as teachers. The pur-pose of investigating various components of thesources of teacher supply is to help determine ifa problem exists in attracting enough qualifiedteachers to a state or district. It is also importantto know whether a problem is becoming worseor better.

20

Some examples of the data-generatingquestions to be asked indude the following:

I. Who are the new hires?

1. Recent graduates of state credentialprograms?

2. Credential holders from out of state?3. Age?4. Race?5. Gender?6. Degree status?7. Teaching field?8. Teachers returning after a period of

time away from teaching (the so-calledreserve pool)?

a. Why are they returning to teaching?

II. How many individuals trained in one stateleave to teach in another state?

1. Why are they leaving?2. Where are they going?

III. How many individuals trained to be teach-ers never apply for a teaching job?

Why do they never apply?

IV. What is the trend in the number of statetrained college students being trained forthe teaching profession?

Analyzing Turnover. Not only is the rate atwhich teachers leave the occupation important,but also knowing the types of teachers wholeave can prove valuable for guiding policy deci-sions. Research has found that most employeesleave their jobs, not because they are attracted toalternative jobs, but because they are unhappywith their current work. Estimating a turnoverrate can demonstrate the degree to which aproblem in a school, district, or state may exist.Estimating turnover patterns will put a focus onthe types of teachers especially prone to leavingtheir jobs.

For example, one study found that approxi-mately 50 percent of the teachers with less thanfive years of experience left the profession(Mark and Anderson, 1985). Such results indicatethat with a teaching force made up of both veryinexperienced teachers and teachers ready to re-tire, the demand for future teachers will be eve-dally high. The turnover results also suggest thatspecific policies should be studied and institutedto moderate turnover among young teachers.

The Metropolitan Life Insurance Companyrecently commissioned Louis Harris and Asso-ciates (1985) to do a national survey of formerteachers. The types of information they soughtnationally could be used as a model for stateand local studies of turnover. The questions theyasked centered on the following topics, withsome of the results provided in italics:

1. The characteristics of those who leave.

a. Experience -4G percent of formerteachers have less than 10 years, expe-rience compared with 22 percent ofcurrent teachers.

b. GenderTwo-thirds of former teach-ers are men while 71 percent of cur-rent teachers are women.

c, Teaching fieldSecondary schoolteachers are more likely to contem-plate leaving than are elementaryschool teachers.

2. "he positive aspects of their new posi-tion-1. Salary, 2. Professional prestige, 3.Control over one's own work, 4. Equip-ment one .-,as to work with.

3. Their reasons for leaving teachingInad-equate salary and poor working condi-tions dominate the list of reasons thatformer teachers give for leaving.

4. Any possible plans for reentry into teach-ingOnly 17 percent say they are likelyto return to teaching in the next fiveyears.

Teacher Retrenchment. Although manyschool districts are frantically searching for teachers to fill classrooms, there are pockets of thecountry where teachers are involuntarily leavingtheir jobs.

Teacher layoffs are basically due to the fol-lowing two reasc 15:

1. A significant drop in enrollments causesa decline in the number of teachersneeded at certain grade levels and for specific subject areas.

2. Teachers are needed, but there are notenough funds to pay them. Teachers aredismissed to save money.

Presently, teacher retrenchment involves acombination of the above two reasons. Somegeographic areas have declining enrollments be-cause of poor economic conditions. Familiesmove away to search for better economicopportunity.

When teacher retrenchment occurs, it is important to find out why. A depressed local econo-my casts the problem into the realm of school finame and requires at the least a lobbying effortat the state and federal levels for remedial fiscalmeasures.

21

If the real issue is not money but a drop inenrollments, then publicity should be generatedabout which subjects and grade levels have anoversupply of teachers. Hopefully, this wouldprevent local teacher education students fromtraining in those particular subjects and gradelevels.

A localized economic recession that causesan out-migration of people requires a strategy re-volving around information and mobility. Un-employed teachers need to know where thereare jobs and whether the benefits of relocatingto another area outweigh the costs.

What other districts in th a state might needteachers? What other parts of thia country are fac-ing a shortap of teachers? Information is crucialfor both experienced teachers desiring to relocateand new teacher graduates searching for theirfirst job.

NEA President Futrell suggests that the U.S.Department of Education establish a nationalclearinghouse to help states locate graduat, s ofteacher preparation programs, particularly thoseaccredited by the National Council for Accredita-tion of Teacher Education. State education agen-cies should do the same.

Incentives need to be provided to helpmake relocation economically feasible. State leg-islatures should be lobbied to enact interstatereciprocity provisions that increase teacher mo-bility across geographic regions. Such provisionsshould indude total transfer of pension accruals(portability) and full credit for experience.

Variables That Affect Teacher Supply. Anal-ysis of variables that directly affect the quantityand quality of individuals willing to teach canprovide persuasive evidence when advocatingfor the improved status of teachers. The twomost prominent variables that should be exam-ined are compensation and conditions of work.Labor economic theory's basic tenet regardingsupply states that as compensation and condi-tions of work improve in teaching relative to oth-er jobs, more individuals will be willing to pro-vide their services as teachers.

22

71

Compensation. It is important to the sup-ply/demand issue to examine trends in the eco-nomic status of teachers in a locality relative tovarious other occupational groups in that locality,induding other public sector employees (stateand municipal) and high-income professionalssuch as managers, training specialists, doctors,dentists, lawyers, engineers, and accountants.Economic status ideally should cover beginningsalaries, career earnings, and benefits. A study ofthis nature may provide one plausible reasonfor students not becoming teachers or teachersleaving the profession to work in otheroccupations.

One possible approximation of the relativeeconomic status of teachers is the incidence of"moonlighting," that is, holding a second job inaddition to a regular one. Employees moonlightmostly to meet regular expenses or pay offdebts. Other reasons for moonlighting includegetting experience in other occupations, build-ing up a business, and a desire to save for thefuture.

A recent Department of Labor study foundthat male teachers had the highest incidence ofmoonlighting of any occupation. Between 16and 19 percent of all male teachers held a secondjob. Female teachers also had a comparativelyhigh moonlighting rate at 7 percent. The averagerate for all employed workers was 5.4 percent(Stinson, 1986).

A comparatively high percentage of teach-ers moonlighting indica*As a problem with thelevel of compensation they receive for their pri-mary job of teaching. Analysis of teacher moon-lighting can provide evidence that teachers areunderpaid and that unless remedies are institut-ed the attraction and retention of qualifiedteachers will suffer,

It is also important to examine the econom-ic status of teachers in a locality relative to theeconomic status of teachers in neighboring local-ities or states. Teacher mobility among districtsbecause of economic status differences has seri-ous equity implications. Districts that have thehighest compensation levels will be able to at-tract the most highly skilled teachers (ignoringconditions of work for the moment). Districtswith relatively low levels of compensation willbe especially harmed by periods of teachershortage.

Conditions of Work. Studies have foundthat many individuals are attracted to teachingbecause of the intrinsic rewardsthe appeal ofbeing able to work with children, an interest in asubject matter field, and the opportunity to pro-vide a valuable service for society. Intrinsic re-wards are also directly influenced by the quanti-ty and quality of supportive material resources,the opportunity for decision making in theschool, and the communication proces betweenteacher and administrator.

Better intrinsic rewards will help attract andretain highly skilled teachers. Surveys need to beconducted to provide insight on the extent towhich school-level processes and conditions ofwork hinder the ability of teachers to performeffectively.

Summary. Linda Darling-Hammond (1987)of the RAND Corporation states:

Though opponents and proponents ofteaching reform have justified theirviews by their beliefs about teachershortages, the real debate should beconducted on educational grounds.What policies and practices are mostlikely to strengthen the education re-ceived by students in schools?

Her point is well taken; the bottom line isthe quality of education received by students.The NEA believes an education that reflects amastery of a range of knowledge and skills canonly be provided by a well-trained, 'aighly quali-fied staff of instructors. The role of teacher iswhere the larger debate should be centered.

The teacher shortage question, however, isa crucial part of that larger debate. We know thatteachers do matter and should be treated as avalued resource. The profession needs to createan awareness of the skills needed to he an effec-tive teacher and then, as this guidebook suggests,demonstrate that unless constructive policiesare implemented there will be a serious shortfallof skilled teachers in many districts. Studentswill then suffer the consequences.

n 623

SOURCES OF DATA

Our respondent interviews stunningly re-vealed why good data about teachers are not rou-tinely collected by states and districts. In moststates the key actors do not see public educationas a major, labor intensive enterprise whosequality would be markedly improved if it wereprofessionally managed. They therefore do notsee the need for data about the human resourcesof that enterprise."

Sue E. Berryman (1985) RANDCorporation

Approximately 30 percent of the stateshave the necessary data to develop reasonableteacher supply and demand models. In somestates, supply and demand data are spreadacross a number of agencies. California is a goodexample of a state with extensive data bases re-posited in various agencies (see Table 5).

Much of the data that are available havenot been fully utilized. Fortunately, bec.ause of in-creasing fears about teacher shortages, states arestarting to put more of an emphasis on gatheringand using supply and demand statistics. Table 6provides a list of state teacher su ,ply and de-mand reports.

Still, the fact remains that a majority ofstates have little available in the way of databases. In addition, all of the studies listed in Ta-ble 6 are open to some criticism. One of the mostimportant tasks that state affiliates face is to ad-vocate better teacher supply and demand dataand effective utilization of these data to buildstate models.

24

Research on the behavioral components ofteacher supply and demand, especially supply,needs to be increased substantially. The behav-ioral aspects are where public policy can influ-ence both the quantity and quality of teachersupply. State and local affiliates can participate inthe measurement of key behavioral relation-ships. Investigating the link between the decisionof teachers to stay or leave and the factors relat-ed to that choice or the forces underlying teachermigration are two examples.

TABLE 5.CAUFORNIA AGENCIESPOSSESSING SUPPLY AND DEMAND DATA

TABLE 6.SELECTED STATE TEACHERSUPPLY AND DEMAND STUDIES

One of the most complete state studies todate is the Policy Analysis for California Educa-tion (PACE) report Teacher Supply and Demandin California: Is the Reserve Pool a RealisticSource of Supply?The PACE analysis uses all ofthe data listed in Table 5 to make projectionsabout teacher supply and demand conditions infuture years. The PACE report concludes that ifeducational reforms are enacted, as much as a94,000 teacher supply shortfall could occur by1989.90 and a 167,000 teacher supply shortfallby 1994-95.

25

NEA AFFILIATETEACHER SUPPLY AND DEMAND PROJECTS

Summarized below are some examples ofteacher supply and demand projects fromaround the country. These projects have al-lowed NEA and its affiliates to take an active rolein the teacher shortage debate.

DELAWARE STATE EDUCATION ASSOCIA-TION (DSEA)

FLORIDA TEACHING PROFESSION-NEA(FTP-NEA)

Labor Market Component: Teacher Short-age Projections

Objective: To use state projections of ateacher shortage as a lever for increasing teachercompensation.

Project: The DSEA and the FTP-NEA areboth examples of state associations that are usinggovernment-generated data and teacher supply/demand projections as evidence in the case forhigher teacher salaries. The DSEA has used a De-partment of Public Instruction analysis for advo-cacy purposes. The analysis finds that a signifi-cant shortage of teachers will occur in the nearfuture unless current policies change. The DSEAhas taken the shortage projections as evidencethat Delaware teachers are underpaid. Most ofthe effort has been focused on lobbying thelegislature.

The FTP-NEA has taken data from annualDepartment of Education reports on teacher sup-ply and demand in Florida to publicize the in-creasing need for teachers. Teacher turnoverrates, growth in student enrollments, and teach-er graduate trends are all highlighted. TheFTP-NEA continually explains the causality be-tween low salaries and the teacher shortage to itsmembers, the lqislature, and the taxpayers.

Data Collection Method: Published reports.

26

NATIONAL EDUCATION ASSOCIATION, RE-SEARCH DIVISION

Labor Market Component: Conditions ofWork

Objectives:

To publicize the fact that the most criti-cal obstacles to improving the education-al system are the current characteristicsof the learning workplace.To show that the current conditions ofwork negatively affect teacher careercommitment.

Project: A study on the conditions and re-sources of teaching (CART) sought to assesswhether teachers can effectively perform giventhe conditions of work and the resources provid-ed to them to complete their work. The studyrepresents the first national effort to identify em-pirically the specific problems teachers havewith the work conditions of schools.

The survey and analysis focused on the fol-lowing four themes:

Job resource-related problems ofteachersDecision making in schoolsCommunication with building-leveladministratorsCorrelates of teacher satisfaction and ca-reer commitment.

The fourth theme is especially relevant tothe teacher supply and demand picture. Resultsfrom the survey established that both quantity-and quality-related problems are highly associat-ed with job satisfaction and career commitment.Higher frequencies of resource problems arelinked to lower job satisfaction and lower careercommitment.

Data Collection Method: Mail survey of anational sample.

FREDERICK COUNTY, VIRGINIA, EDUCATIONASSOCIATION (FCEA)

Labor Market Component: Attrition

Objective A report was presented to theFrederick County School Board to answer its re-quest for specific information regarding thenumber of teachers leaving the teaching occupa-tion and their reasons for doing so. FCEA pro-posed specific and productive recommendationsfor improving the conditions under which teach-ers work.

Project: FCEA researched pertinent litera-ture on teacher turnover and then addressedthree questions:

Who is leaving?Why?What can be done to correct thesituation?

A report was written describing a teacherturnover problem in Frederick County. The turn-over rate in Frederick County waF found to belarger than the rate for either the state of Virginiaor the nation. Also, the attrition rate was discov-ered to have increased over the years 1982-1985.The report concluded that "the lack of such op-portunities for and appreciation of teacher excel-lence is the primary cause of low teacher moraleand the attendant decision to leave our schoolsystem."

Data Collection Method: Exit interview bytelephone.

INDIANA STATE TEACHERS ASSOCIATION(ISTA)

Labor Market Component: Attrition

Objective: To determine the primary causesof teacher attrition in Indiana. The results of thestudy can then be used to help guide policy deci-sions aimed at curbing the turnover rate.

Project: The Indiana State Teachers Associ-ation is conducting a survey of former teachers todetermine the reasons and conditions that con-tribute to teacher flight in Indiana. The survey isbased on the national survey of former teachersnone by Louis Harris and Associates (1985) forthe Metropolitan Life Insurance Company. ISTAis seeking data on the following topics:

DemographicsTeaching experienceReasons for leaving teachingPossible enticements for returning toteaching.

Data Collection Method: Mail survey.

IDAHO EDUCATION ASSOCIATION (LEA)

Labor Market Component: Moonlighting

Objective To draw attention to the fact thatbecause teacher salaries are too low, much of theexisting teacher work force has to take addition-al employment.

Project: The lEA sponsored a study to deter-mine the percentage of Idaho teachers that heldsecond jobs. The study found that over half ofthe current male teaching force is moonlighting.The results suggest that the high moonlightingrate carries negative implications for teacher pro-ductivity, stress, and burnout. Such conse-quences cause the attraction and retention ofqualified teachers to suffer.

Data Collection Method: Mail survey.

WISCONSIN EDUCATION ASSOCIATIONCOUNCIL (WEAC)

Labor Market Component: New TeacherGraduates

Objective To provide prospective teacherswith salary and employee benefit information forall districts in Wisconsin. WEAC realizes that bypublicizing salary and benefit data, the lowerpaying districts will be at a greater disadvantagewhen recruiting than they would if this informa-tion were not as readily available to prospectiveteachers. The new compensation "awareness"should incite districts to become more competi-tive in the hiring of teachers.

Project: WEAC has prepared a packet forstudents interested in teaching in Wisconsin pub-lic schools. The packet has basically two sec-tions. The first section provides general informa-tion about the teaching profession and morespecific information about NEA, WEAC, arid theUniSery function.

27

The second section provides the followinginformation for each district in the state:

[1 Entry-level salarybachelor's degreeEntry-level salarymaster's degreeNumber of salary schedule stepsMaximum salarymaster's degreeEstimate of potential total earnings overa careerEmployee benefitsTuition reimbursementCurriculum development stipends.

The information will be useful not only tostudents about to enter the teaching job marketbut also to students contemplating academicmajors and potential careers. Research hasshown that once career or job choices have beennarrowed to a potential few, tile two factors thathave the most influence in the selection of a par-ticular career or job are the level of compensationand the availability of employment. WEAC'sproject aims to shed much light on the formerfactor.

Data Collection Method Analysis of districtcontracts.

MICHIGAN EDUCATION ASSOCIATION(MEA)

Labor Market Component: School Employ-ee Attraction and Retention

Objective To focus concern on districts' fu-ture ability to replace the education employeeswho will soon take advantage of Michigan's ear-ly retirement plan.

Project: MEA researched the intentions ofteachers regarding a recently enacted early retire-ment package. The results showed that 65 per-cent of those eligible would take advantage ofthe package, raising the distinct possibility of anunprecedented number of teachers (and adminis-trators) retiring from education over the nextfive years.

Although recent Michigan enrollment pro-jections imply no additional need for teachers.the high projected retirement rate expresses aneed to focus on making teaching an attractiveprofession. Not only will retiring teachers need

28

to be replaced, but also teachers who will replacethe large number of administrators expected toretire.

MEA has conducted focus-group sessionswith college students interested in teaching to as-certain ways in which teaching can improve it'simage and status. A focus group is much like agroup interview, only the interviewer is really amoderator directing conversations down a chan-nel bounded by various discussion topics.

MEA also plans to conduct mail sui, veys ofindividuals who were certified but never taughtand of teacher and ESP (educational support per-sonnel) members who have left education withinthe past five years. Responses to the surveysshould help determine the needed changes thatwill attract qualified teachers into Michiganschools.

Data Collection Method: Surveys, focusgroups.

REFERENCES

American Association of Colleges forTeacher Education. Teacher Education Poli-cy in the States: 50 State Survey of Legisla-tive and Administrative Actions. Washing-ton, D.C.: the Association, 1986.Berryman, Sue E. "Knowledge About theNation's Teachers, Or: You've Lost the WarIf You Can't Find the Battlefield," 1985.(Draft)

Carnegie Forum on Education and theEconomy. A Nation Prepared: Teachers forthe 21st Century. Washington, D.C.: Carne-gie, 1986.

Darling-Hammond, Linda. "What Consti-tutes a 'Real' Shortage of Teachers?" Educa-tion Week, January 14, 1987.

Feistritzer, C. Emily. Teacher Crisis: Mythor Reality? Washington, D.C.: National Cen-ter for Education Information, 1986.Hecker, Daniel. "Teacher's Job Outlook: IsChicken Little Wrong Again?" OccupationalOutlook QuP.:,:rrry (Bureau of Labor Statis-tics) Winter 1986.

Louis Harris and Associates. The Metropoli-tan Life Survey of Former Teachers in Amer-ica. New York: Harris, 1985.Mark, Jonathan, and Anderson, Barry."Teacher Survival Rates in St. Louis." Ameri-can Educational Research Journal, Fall 1985.National Center for Education Statistics,The Condition of Education. Washington,D.C.: U.S. Department of Education, 1985.National Education Association. Status ofthe American Public School Teacher, 1985-86. Washington, D.C.: the Association,1987.

National Research Council. Toward Under-standing Teacher Supply and Demand.Washington, D.C.: National AcademyPress, 1987.

Robinson, Virginia. "Out-of-Field Teaching:Barrier to Professionalism." American Edu-cator, Winter 1985.Rodman, Blake. "Teaching's 'EndangeredSpecies,' Education Week, November 20,1985.

Roth, Robert "Emersency Certificates. Mis-assignment of Teachers, and Other 'DirtyLittle Secrets.' Phi Delta Kappan, June1986.

Sedlak, Michael, and Schlossman, Steven.Who Will Teach? Historical Perspectives onthe Changing Appeal of Teaching as a Pro-fession.

ChangingMonica, Calif.: RAND Corp.,

1986.

Stinson, John F. Jr. "Moonlighting By Wom-en Jumped to Record Highs." Monthly LaborReview, November 1986.U. S. Department of Commerce, Bureau ofthe Census. Statistical Abstract of the UnitedStates 1987. Washington, D.C.: Govern-ment Printing Office, 1987.

Watts, Gary D. "And Let the Air Out of theVolleyballs." Phi Delta Kappan, June 1986.

29

Notes

* The terms certificate, license, and credentialand variants thereof are used interchangeablythrough this report. Current NEA policy distin-guishes between the certification and licensureprocesses, as follows:

Certification: The process by which a nongov-ernmental agency or association grants profes-sional recognition to an individual who has metcertain predetermined qualifications specified bythat agency or association.

Licensure: The process by which an agency ofstate government grants permission to personsmeeting predetermined state qualifications topractice the education profession.

30

r

JP

P

6

National Education Association1201 Sixteenth Street) N.W.

Washington, D.C. 20036