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Docket Number: 17-IEPR-07

Project Title: Integrated Resource Planning

TN #: 217132

Document Title: Global EV trends and forecast

Description: 4.18.17 Presentation by Alejandro Zamorano of Bloomberg

Filer: Raquel Kravitz

Organization: Bloomberg

Submitter Role: Public

Submission Date: 4/17/2017 4:45:58 PM

Docketed Date: 4/17/2017

Global EV trends and forecastIEPR workshop on Light Duty Vehicle

Transportation Electrification

Alejandro Zamorano

April 18, 2017

1 April 18, 2017

2017 forecast

Agenda

Drivers of transport electrification: the role of mobility

2 April 18, 2017

North America selected EV model sales, Q1,Q2 2015 – 2016 (thousand units, % change)

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, automakers, vehicles registration agencies

Chevrolet

Volt

Tesla

Model S

Tesla

Model X

Nissan

Leaf

Ford Fusion

Energi

Ford C-max

Energi

Toyota

Prius Prime

BMW

i3

Q4 2016 (units) 9,338 8,825 6,485 5,058 4,309 2,635 2,422 1,947

Q3–Q4 2016 (%) 20% -10% 0% 29% -3% 20% -35%

Q4 ’15 – Q4 ’16 (%) 39% -6% 26% 50% 36% -40%

2016 (units) 28,208 32,037 20,148 15,381 16,055 8,140 2,422 8,081

2015 – 16 (%) 67% 11% -17% 64% 5% -30%

3 April 18, 2017

Bloomberg New Energy Finance

Global EV sales, 2012 – 2017e (thousand units)

36

114

283378

3066

96

182

209

275

5696

116

115

158

240

2729

32

23

21

25

23

122206

288

448

695

962

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

China Europe US Japan Canada Korea RoW

+39%+56%+40%+69%+135% +55%Cumulative global EV sales

hit one million in Q4 2015

We expect the next million

to be hit by Q2 2017

16 13 22 31 48 3667 72

107

23

85118

152

20 24 2329 37

40 37

6849

47 49

64

55

63

69

88

2232 32

30 2330 28

33

27

3745

49

48

57

64

71

5969 76 84 83

99108

158

127

160176

232

145

222

268

328

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2014 2015 2016 2017

China Europe US Canada Japan Korea RoW

2017 total: 962 thousand unitsRegional 2017 totals:

APAC - 426k unitsAMER - 259k unitsEurope - 275k unitsRoW - 2k units

4 April 18, 2017

Japanese EV sales dropped 12% year-

on year. Driven by: shrinking market,

restricted model availability.

North America EV sales up 39% year-on

year. Driven by: refreshed versions of

current models. Welcomed change from

2015. Fuel prices and consumers awaiting

longer range BEVs inhibiting broader

uptake.

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

EV sales trends – Changing growth patterns

Europe: up 15% year-on-year Driven by:

Strong policy support in: Norway, UK, France.

Germany recently introduced incentives. But

growth is slowing from last 18 months.

China EV sales up 148% year-on-year.

Driven by: strong domestic policy support,

new models and strong growth in BEVs.

Looking Up Moving sideways

North America Europe China Japan

Q3 – Q4

2016

Q4 ’15 – Q4

’16

Q3 – Q4

2016

Q4 ’15 – Q4

’16

Q3 – Q4

2016

Q4 ’15 – Q4

’16

Q3 – Q4

2016

Q4 ’15 – Q4

’16

EV sales 8% 47% 29% -6% 48% 122% 18% -12%

5 April 18, 2017

2016 end of year update

Agenda

Drivers of transport electrification: the role of mobility

6 April 18, 2017

drivers

1 Technology development

2 Mobility

7 April 18, 2017

drivers


2 Mobility

8 April 18, 2017

18.6

16.4

14.0

10.9

22.7

20.7

19.4

19.2

20.3

19.8

19.2

19.4

15.2

5.4

5.3

5.2

5.1

5.4

5.4

5.5

5.5

5.9

5.9

5.8

5.8

5.6

1.0

0.9

0.9

0.8

1.7

1.6

1.6

1.4

3.1

3.5

4.1

3.2

3.2

0.50

0.45

0.40

0.33

0.59

0.55

0.53

0.52

0.58

0.58

0.58

0.56

0.48

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Kia Soul EV

Nissan Leaf

Ford Focus EV

Chevrolet Spark EV

Toyota Prius PHEV

Ford C-MAX Energi

Ford Fusion Energi

Chevrolet Volt

Honda Accord

Toyota Camry

Chevrolet Malibu

Ford Fusion

Chevrolet Cruze

Total cost of ownership, thousand $

Price, net

Running costs

Fuel

With incentives:

The TCO of a BEV is up to 25% lower than an average midsize gasoline vehicles

PHEVs cost the same as midsize gasoline vehicles: higher purchase price, lower incentivesLabels in italics are $/mile; Price includes down payment, financing and sales tax and is net of incentives and resale value; running costs consist of road

tax, insurance and maintenance. Based on $0.125/kWh electricity and $2.50/gal fuel prices. 10,100 miles driven per year, TCO is calculated over the first

5 years of ownership Bloomberg New Energy Finance

With incentives, the TCO of BEVs is lower than all but the cheapest ICE vehicles in the US…

BEV

PHEV

ICE

$/mile

US 2015 models

9 April 18, 2017

28.6

26.4

24.0

20.9

26.7

26.2

29.4

28.2

20.3

19.8

19.2

19.4

15.2

5.4

5.3

5.2

5.1

5.4

5.4

5.5

5.5

5.9

5.9

5.8

5.8

5.6

1.0

0.9

0.9

0.8

1.7

1.6

1.6

1.4

3.1

3.5

4.1

3.2

3.2

0.69

0.65

0.60

0.53

0.67

0.66

0.72

0.69

0.58

0.58

0.58

0.56

0.48

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Kia Soul EV

Nissan Leaf

Ford Focus EV

Chevrolet Spark EV

Toyota Prius PHEV

Ford C-MAX Energi

Ford Fusion Energi

Chevrolet Volt

Honda Accord

Toyota Camry

Chevrolet Malibu

Ford Fusion

Chevrolet Cruze

Total cost of ownership, thousand $

Price, net

Running costs

Fuel

Without incentives:

Current BEV models are more expensive than midsize gasoline cars by ~13%, PHEVs by 15%

The Chevrolet Spark EV is still cheaper due to its low upfront price (~$25k)

Labels in italics are $/mile; Price includes down payment, financing and sales tax and is net of incentives and resale value; running costs

consist of road tax, insurance and maintenance. Based on $0.125/kWh electricity and $2.50/gal fuel prices. 10,100 miles driven per year,

TCO is calculated over the first 5 years of ownership Bloomberg New Energy Finance

…but BEVS/PHEVS are still more expensive without purchase incentives

BEV

PHEV

ICE

US 2015 models

$/mile

10 April 18, 2017

0200400600800

1,000

H1

20

12

H2

20

12

H1

20

13

H2

20

13

H1

20

14

H2

20

14

H1

20

15

H2

20

15

MW

h

0

500

1,000

H1…H2…H1…H2…H1…H2…H1…

MWh of sales ofbatteries in newEVs

Vehicle lithium-ion battery prices and monthly volumes of lithium-ion batteries sold in new EV sales, 2012-2015 ($/KWh and MWh)

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: Prices include both pack and cell costs

The decline in price is partly due to technology

improvements, increased plant utilization and aggressive

pricing strategy by large players

1

The five largest battery manufacturers control 64% of li-

ion battery capacity for EVs

Panasonic supplies batteries to at least 18 models, LG

Chem to 12, Samsung to 6

2

H1 2012: $689/kWh

H2 2012: $642/kWh

H1 2013:$599/kWh

H1 2014: $568/kWh

H2 2014:$540/kWh

H2 2015:$350/kWh

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600$/k

Wh

689642599

Range betweenminimum and maximumprice reported

Volume-weightedaverage battery price

11 April 18, 2017


Bloomberg New Energy Finance recorded learning rate of SI PV modules and Li-ion battery packs2004 – 16 (multiple units)

1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000

0

1

10

100

0

1

10

100

1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000

Cumulative lithium-ion EV battery pack production (MWh)

Cumulative crystalline PV module production (MW)

Cry

sta

llin

e S

i P

V M

od

ule

price

(US

D/W

)

Lith

ium

-ion

ba

ttery

pa

ck p

rice

(US

D/W

h)

m=14%

m=26.3%

Crystalline Si PV module prices have

fallen 26.3% on average for every

doubling of cumulative production

capacity in 2004 – 15

1

Li-ion battery pack prices have fallen

19% on average for every doubling

of cumulative production capacity in

2010 – 16

2

m=19%

12 April 18, 2017

Observed and forecast EV lithium-ion battery prices2010-30 ($/KWH)


Note: values shown are taken from BNEF’s annual EV lithium-ion battery price survey. Forecast is based

on a learning rate of 14-20%. EV cost parity is calculated on an unsubsidised total cost of ownership

(TCO) basis. The date range reflects cross over with different vehicle classes in the US.

The weighted average battery price in

2016 was $273/kWh. Based on a

learning rate of 19%, we anticipate

battery prices will reach $73/kWh by

2030

1

The decline of battery pack prices has

accelerated since 2014 due to

improvements in energy density and

pack design, and large contracts as

mass market EVs such as the Bolt and

the Model 3 are introduced.

2

Moderate scenario

Aggressive scenario

$273/kWh

13 April 18, 2017

Lithium-ion battery cost breakdown for a US plant, by component, BEV pack2015 – 16 ($/kWh)

Cathode

Anode

Separator

Electrolyte

Electrical connections

Pouch

Pack HousingBattery Management

SystemModule control

Module housing

Thermal management

Cell operating

Pack operating

Cell capital

Pack capitalLabour

15%

8%

7%

5%

3%1%

14%4%3%

2%1%

11%

5%

17%

3%

Cell materials

39%

Pack materials

24%

Operating16%

Capital20%

$223/kWh

2016: $223/kWh


2015: $384/kWh

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Note: 40 kWh NMC/graphite pack

Cathode

Anode

Separator

Electrolyte

Electrical connections

PouchPack Housing

BMS

Module control

Module housing

Thermal management

Cell operating

Pack operating

Cell capital

Pack capitalLabour

20%

7%

9%

4%

3%1%

14%

4%3%

2%1%

11%

5%

13%2%

Cell materials

44%

Pack materials

24%

Operating16%

Capital15%

$384/kWh

$384/kWh: production costs of a

1GWh output plant, in the US, with a

12% WACC, 10 year lifetime

1

High volume US plants can produce

batteries below the average market

price ($273/kWh), despite high

capital costs.

2

$223/kWh is our indicative 2016

battery pack price for a large

(3GWh), US based plant that is

optimized for high volume

production.

3

14 April 18, 2017

BNEF battery price survey 2016 and experience curve forecast2010-30, ($/KWh)

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Note: values shown are taken from BNEF’s annual EV lithium-ion battery price survey. Forecast is based on a learning rate of 19%. EV cost

parity is calculated on an unsubsidised total cost of ownership (TCO) basis. The date range reflects cross over with different vehicle classes in the US.

89

730

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Bottom-upanalysis

Survey-basedanalysis

BNEF observed values

EV cost parity cross-over

15 April 18, 2017

Unsubsidized total cost of ownership of EVs will reach parity with ICE in the mid-2020’s

Note: 10,100 miles per year, 5-year ownership. Gasoline and electricity prices from EIA’s 2015 Annual Energy Outlook ‘Low Oil Price’

scenario (ranging from $50 to $65 between 2015 and 2025). The fuel economy of an internal combustion engine vehicle increases by 3.5%

per year and its price increases by 1% per year. The purchase price of a battery electric vehicle is based on the battery pack price, using an

adjustment factor of 3-to-4 between 2015 and 2030, plus a profit margin of 7%. All other costs remain constant in 2015 dollars. Bloomberg New Energy Finance

$0.0

$0.2

$0.4

$0.6

$0.8

$1.0

$1.2

$1.4

2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036

$/mile

Midsize

Compact

BEV 60 kWh

BEV 45 kWh

Between 2020 and 2030, EVs will become cheaper to own than ICE cars on an unsubsidized basis

16 April 18, 2017

Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: ICE+HEV = internal combustion engine and hybrid vehicles, BEV = battery electric vehicles, PHEV = plug-in hybrid electric vehicles.

Global LDV and EV yearly sales, 2015 –2040 (million vehicles sold per year, %)

35%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

ICE +HEV

BEV

PHEV

EV % ofnewsales

m vehicles sold per year % of new car sales

Global sales penetration

forecast:

2020: 2%

2025: 8%

2030: 20%

2040: 35-47%

17 April 18, 2017

drivers


3 Mobility

1 Fuel efficiency

18 April 18, 2017

0.2 0.2 0.4

5.3

11.3

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Other

Ola

Lyft

Didi

Uber

The rise of shared services and new mobility business models

Investments in ride-hailing companies,

2011-15 ($ billion)

Operator car sharing

Peer-to-peer ride sharing

Peer-to-peer car sharing


On-demand ride-hailing

19 April 18, 2017

Sensitivity of the TCO of BEVS to changes in costs, using purchasing incentives

Bloomberg New Energy Finance

Running and fuel costs have a smaller impact on BEV’s total cost of ownership…

…but vehicle utilization rates important factors in determining competitiveness of EVs relative to gasoline

cars…

…specially in a scenario where the global vehicle fleet is utilized around 5% of the time.

1

ICE

BEV

BEV

-12% -9% -6% -3% 0% 3% 6% 9% 12%

Purchase and financing costs

Running costs

Fuel costs

Change in TCO for a 10% change in given variableChange in total cost of vehicle ownership for a 10% in a given variable

20 April 18, 2017

Global average unsubsidized total cost of ownership outlook of BEVs compared with internal combustion engine vehicles 2016 – 2036 ($/mile)


Any mass adoption of EVs – over 5% of new

vehicle sales – needs to be supported by

competitive TCO.

Economics are not the only factor, but they are

the leading indicator of future EV adoption.

1

Using EIA’s “low” reference crude oil price to 2040

($50-$75/barrel) – and our battery cost forecast –

BEVs will not be competitive on a TCO-basis with

ICEs until 2022

2

We project that a long-range 60kWh BEV can be

competitively priced at $21,500 by 2040 (2015

dollars).

At that point, the total addressable market could

exceed 50% of new sales for most markets

3

PHEVs only

BEVs only

$0.0

$0.2

$0.4

$0.6

$0.8

$1.0

$1.2

$1.4

2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036

$/mile

Midsize

Compact

BEV 60 kWh

BEV 45 kWh

Between 2020 and 2030, EVs will become cheaper to own than ICE cars on an unsubsidized basis

21 April 18, 2017

TCO scenario where EV utilization doubles relative to ICE vehicles2016 – 2036 ($/mile)

$0.0

$0.2

$0.4

$0.6

$0.8

$1.0

$1.2

$1.4

2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036

BEV 60 kWh

BEV 45 kWh

Midsize

Compact

Higher EV utilization relative to ICE may drive down TCO dramatically and push up adoption faster


If ICE vehicle miles travelled are held constant in

2014 – 40, and BEV miles are doubled, TCO falls

dramatically

1

The effect on ownership economics is sharp and

in 2025 the per-mile cost of owning and operating

an EV falls by about 40%

2

The additional electricity and maintenance costs

are small and spread over a large number of

miles driven.

3

22 April 18, 2017

BNEF global NEW EV sales forecast by geography, 2015–2040 (million vehicles per year)

EQUAL NUMBER OF MILES TRAVELLED DOUBLED THE EV MILES TRAVELLED

Under equal vehicle miles travelled the number of new EVs sold in

2030 globally is about 22m

The inclusion rate of EVs that year is 20% of new vehicles sold

1

When doubling the utilization rate of plug-ins, the number of

new EVs sold in 2030 increases to 25m

The penetration rate of new vehicle sales in 2030 increases to

close to 24%

2

23.75%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030

Plug-ins

Plug-insas % ofnew sales

20%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030

Plug-ins

Plug-insas % ofnew sales

23 April 18, 2017

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The information contained in this publication is derived from carefully selected sources we believe are reasonable. We do not

guarantee its accuracy or completeness and nothing in this document shall be construed to be a representation of such a

guarantee. Any opinions expressed reflect the current judgment of the author of the relevant article or features, and does not

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Copyright and disclaimer

Coverage.

Renewable Energy

Power & Utilities

Gas

Carbon Markets & Climate Negotiations

Energy Smart Technologies

Storage

Electric Vehicles

Mobility and Autonomous Driving

Frontier Power

Emerging Technologies

Bloomberg New Energy Finance is a

research firm that helps energy

professionals generate opportunities. With a

team of experts spread across six

continents, BNEF provides independent

analysis and insight, enabling decision-

makers to navigate change in an evolving

energy economy.

BNEF research and analysis is accessible

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[email protected]

about.bnef.com

@BloombergNEF

Alejandro Zamorano-Cadavid

[email protected]

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