Do Diesel Cars Make Sense For India
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Michael P. WalshInternational Consultant
Chairman, Board of Directors, ICCT
CSE Roundtable: Is clean diesel a myth or a solution?Delhi, India
10 December, 2007
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PM Air Pollution in India Cities is Already A Very Serious Problem; NO2 and Ozone Also Concerns
New Diesel Vehicles in India Emit One to Two Orders of Magnitude Higher PM Than Gasoline Vehicles; At Least Three Times More NOx
If ULSD (< 50 ppm S) Was Available, Tight Standards Requiring Diesels As Clean As Gasoline Would Be Possible
Until Then, Diesel Cars Are Not Environmentally Viable In India
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JanuaryMarch
MayJuly
SeptemberNovember
0
100
200
300
400
PM2.5
PM10
WHO PM2.5
WHO PM10
Source: Dr. SenguptaCPCB
Concentration of PM 2.5 & PM 10 in 2005 Delhi (B.S.Z. Marg)
10
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
PM 10 & 2.5CONTINUOUS MONITOR AT
BHADUR SHAH ZAFAR MARG (ITO), NEW DELHI
PM 10 & 2.5CONTINUOUS MONITOR AT
BHADUR SHAH ZAFAR MARG (ITO), NEW DELHI
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0
50
100
150
200
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300
Valu
es in
ug/
m3
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
Reg
iste
red
Vehi
cle
Popu
latio
n in
Mill
ions
Residential Industrial Traffic Intersection Vehicle Population
Residential NA NA NA 120 139 127 131
Industrial NA NA NA 150 167 140 140
Traffic Intersection 200 216 191 180 270 244 228
Vehicle Population 3 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.8 4.1
1997-98 1998-99 1999-2000 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04
RESPIRABLE SUSPENDED PARTICULATE MATTER (RSPM) LEVELS IN AMBIENT AIR
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Valu
es in
ug/
m3
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
Reg
iste
red
Vehi
cle
Popu
latio
n in
Mill
ions
Residential Industrial Traffic Intersection Vehicle Population
Residential 29 27 29 28.7 33 37.9 40
Industrial 35 34 34 29 35 36 42
Traffic Intersection 63 60 59 67 75 94 89
Vehicle Population 3 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.8 4.1
1997-98 1998-99 1999-2000 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04
OXIDES OF NITROGEN (NOX) LEVELS IN AMBIENT AIR
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Gobin
dgarh
Ludhiana
Raipur
Lucknow
Kanpur
Jala
ndhar
Alwar
Jhar
ia
Dehra
dun
Farid
abadAgra
Ahmed
abad
Vapi
Solapur
Jam
nagar
Indore
Ankales
hwar
SatnaSura
t
Dhanbad
Bhilai
Delhi
Howra
h
Guwah
ati
Kolkat
a
Patna
Nagda
Jodhpur
Nasik
Chandra
purKota
Varan
asi
Pune
Visak
hapat
nam96
Rourkela
Vadodar
a
Chandig
arh
Jabal
pur
Jaip
ur
Mum
bai
Udaipur
Trive
ndrumKorb
a
Hyder
abad
Rayag
ada
Bangalo
re
Nagpur
Kozhiko
de
Titico
rin
Angul
Gajr
aula 51
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
RSPM Annual average concentration during 2005 in
India (micrograms/m3)
Delhi
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Combustion products
Minerals
Salt
Diesel sootDiesel soot
Source: Umweltbundesamt, Wien
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8
Developmental EffectsDevelopmental Effects
HospitalizationHospitalization
Asthma Attacks and BronchitisAsthma Attacks and Bronchitis
PrematurePremature DeathsDeaths
CancerCancer
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0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
All CausesPulmonaryLung Cancer
9Journal of American Medical Association, March 2002
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10
Clean Diesel or Clean Diesel or Dirty Diesel?Dirty Diesel?
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SCR behind CDPF
NOx trap in front of CDPF
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12Euro 4 2005 Euro 5 2010 Euro 6 2015 US Tier 2 Avg0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
Grams/Km
Gasoline NOx Diesel NOx Diesel PMx10
EU and US Light Duty Gasoline and EU and US Light Duty Gasoline and Diesel Vehicle StandardsDiesel Vehicle Standards
May/Will Include ANumber Based PMStandard
Clean Vehicle Technologies Are Already Entering The Marketplace
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0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
EURO 1 EURO 2 EURO 3 EURO 4
g/k
m
NEDCCADC
EU 5
Limit
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
EURO 1 EURO 2 EURO 3 EURO 4
g/k
m
NEDCCADC
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
EURO 1 EURO 2 EURO 3 EURO 4
g/k
m
NEDCCADC
Actual NOx Levels Are Much Higher Than Type Approval Indicates
How have specific NOx emissions of diesel passenger cars evolved in the past?
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Sulfate (SO4)
Adsorbed Hydrocarbons
Solids (SOL) Solid Carbon Spheres
(0.01-0.08 mm) combine to make agglomerates(0.05-1.0 mm) Adsorbed Hydrocarbons
Adsorbed Hydrocarbons
Liquid Condensed Hydrocarbon Particles
Sulfate with Hydration
Vapour Phase Hydrocarbons
Soluble Organic Fraction (SOF)/Particle Phase Hydrocarbons
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Inlet Outlet
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16
Low Sulfur Fuel is Critical to Get Maximum BenefitsLow Sulfur Fuel is Critical to Get Maximum BenefitsSensitivity to Sulfur With Catalyzed Soot FiltersSensitivity to Sulfur With Catalyzed Soot Filters
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17
0 20 40 60 80 100
Tier 4 nonroad
Heavy-dutyhighway
Tier 2 Light-dutyhighway
$ Billion Annually in 2030
cost
benefitTotal Cost: $11 billionTotal Cost: $11 billionTotal Benefits: $175 billionTotal Benefits: $175 billion
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181995 2000 20050
50
100
150
200
250
300
(tons/year)PM Emissions
0
1
2
3
4
5
ThousandsNumber of Buses
PM Buses
The Bottom Line: From 1995-2005, Fleetwide PM Reduced 97% While Fleet
Grew By 33%
As Part of An Overall Strategy, Retrofits and CNG Work
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Initiative „No DIESEL without Filter“ started
Automotive Industry shall only sell diesel cars with soot filters from summer 2003
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Greenpeace Germany Demonstrations
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Would You Rather PutA Filter on Your CarOr Your Child?
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23
No UnlessUS Tier 2 or
Euro 5 Standards Apply &
ULSD Available
Euro 4 2005 Euro 5 2010 Euro 6 2015 US Tier 2 Avg0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
Grams/Km
Gasoline NOx Diesel NOx Diesel PMx10
EU and US Light Duty Gasoline and EU and US Light Duty Gasoline and Diesel Vehicle StandardsDiesel Vehicle Standards
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1/1/2006 – New Gasoline Cars Meet Euro 4 standards
1/1/2006 – New Diesel Cars Meet CA LEV2 standards
ULSD (Maximum 50 PPM) Required At Present
Tax Incentive Introduced Dec 1 For 10 PPM Sulfur Limits
24
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PM Air Pollution in India Cities is Already A Very Serious Problem; NO2 and Ozone Also Concerns
New Diesel Vehicles in India Emit One to Two Orders of Magnitude Higher PM Than Gasoline Vehicles; At Least Three Times More NOx
If ULSD (< 50 ppm S) Was Available, Tight Standards Requiring Diesels As Clean As Gasoline Would Be Possible
Until Then, Diesel Cars Are Not Environmentally Viable In India