Division Manager, VDMA Sector Group Photovoltaic Equipment ...
Transcript of Division Manager, VDMA Sector Group Photovoltaic Equipment ...
ITRPV
Dr. Jutta Trube
• Division Manager, VDMA Sector Group Photovoltaic Equipment since 12-2015
• Responsible for the International Technology Roadmap for Photovoltaics (ITRPV)
• Vice Managing Director, VDMA Sector Association Electronics, Micro and New Energy Production Technologies
• More than 20 years experience as R&D Director in vacuum equipment manufacturing
• Studied Physics in Göttingen & PhD in electro technical engineering in Berlin
Aug. 8th, 2020
| Dr. Jutta Trube Page 1 |
ITRPV
Current trends and future challenges in
c-Si PV with results of the 11th Edition of
ITRPV and PV production technology
Aug. 8th, 2020
| Dr. Jutta Trube Page 2 |
Source: www.siemens.com/presse
Dr. Jutta Trube
VDMA, Frankfurt, Germany
SNEC, August 8th 2020
ITRPV
VDMA Largest Industry Association
Representation of Interests, Services, Network
Running ITRPV with yearly updates
Aug. 8th, 2020
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Leading Federation of European Engineering
ITRPV
Outline
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1. ITRPV – Status and PV learning Curve
2. ITRPV – Results 2019- Crystallization & Wafering - Materials, Processes, Products - Cell - Materials, Processes, Products - Module - Materials, Processes, Products - Smart Fab Status- Systems
3. Outlook and Summary
ITRPV
ITRPV – Methodology / Status
Aug. 8th, 2020
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Participating companies
Independent data collection / processing
by VDMA
Review of dataPreparation of publication
regional chairsNext ITRPV edition
SILICON CRYSTAL. WAFER CELL SYSTEMMODULE
Parameters in main areas are discussed Diagrams of median values
Photovoltaic Equipment
Chairs PRC
Chairs IND
Chairs TW
Chairs US
Chairs EU
11th edition: > 57 contributors from Asia, Europe, and US
ITRPV
PV learning curve
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Shipments /avg. module price at year end:
2018: 109 GWp / 0.24 US$/Wp2019: 130 GWp / 0.23 US$/Wp
o/a shipment: ≈ 654 GWpo/a installation: ≈ 628 GWp
LR 23.5 % (1976 …. 2019)LR 40.0 % (2006 …. 2019)
high volume shipped w/ increased product diversity Significant change in module concepts
Price learning continued
12/2017
01/2020 500 GWp
ITRPV
Price calculation (year end values): mono-Si share increased; now dominating
mono-Si / mc-Si share = 65% / 35% 0.23 $ /Wp
PV learning curve current trendsPrice reductions continues
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Mono pricing is dominating the avg.- price reduction of mono-Si modules YoY: ≈ 7%- price reduction of mc-Si modules YoY: ≈ 10%
Module conversion causes > 50% of PV module pricing
mc-Si p-type
mono p-type
mono n-type
ITRPV
Outline
| Dr. Jutta Trube Page 8 | Aug. 8th, 2020
1. ITRPV – Status and PV learning Curve
2. ITRPV – Results 2019- Crystallization & Wafering - Materials, Processes, Products - Cell - Materials, Processes, Products - Module - Materials, Processes, Products - Smart Fab Status- Systems
3. Outlook and Summary
ITRPV
Wafer: Materials /Process – wafering
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Trend: wafer thickness Trend: poly-Si utilization
Poly-Si utilization 2020 15.2 g / mono-Si wafer 14.4 g / mc-Si wafer
kerf loss (w/DWS) 2020 2030 70 µm 50 µm
TTV will improve to ≈ 10 µm
mono wafer thickness reduction materializes! 2020 2030
PERx: p/n-type 170 µm 150 µmHJT: n-type 150 µm ≈ 120 µm HJT can use thinner wafers
Trend : kerf loss in wafering
ITRPV
Wafer: Product - market share of wafer sizes
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Trend: mc-Si wafer size several new formats appear
Trend: mono-Si wafer size mono will faster use bigger formats
New module formats are flooding the market Standardization is required
• M2 is disappearing• G1 and M4 will keep share possible w/ upgrades of existing cell tools• M6 and larger, up to M12 will dominate future requires new tools with new fabs
≥ M6
G1M2
M4
≥ M6G1
M2
M4
ITRPV
Outline
| Dr. Jutta Trube Page 11 | Aug. 8th, 2020
1. ITRPV – Status and PV learning Curve
2. ITRPV – Results 2019- Crystallization & Wafering - Materials, Processes, Products - Cell - Materials, Processes, Products - Module - Materials, Processes, Products - Smart Fab Status- Systems
3. Outlook and Summary
ITRPV
Cell: Product – market share of cell technologies
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Trend: share of cell technologies • BSF 30% share in 2019 (mc-Si) will disappear after 2024
• PERx (incl. passivated contacts) >65% share in 2019 market mainstream in coming years on p- and n- type
• Si- heterojunction (SHJ) 2% in 2019 >15% in 2030
• Back contact concepts 2 % in 2019 5% in 2029
• Si-Tandem expected after 2023 onwards
PERx - technologies will stay PV working horse(2019 ITRPV data are similar to IHS Markit)
IBC
BSF
PERx / TOPCON
SHJ
Tandem
Bifacial Bifacial cells will gain share 20% in 2020 80% in 2030
Bifacial ready
Monofacial
ITRPV
Cell: Process – metallization trends
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Silver reduction will continue 90 mg Ag for p-type cells (G1 format) n-type concepts require more Ag
Measures: - reduction of finger width more bus bars- finger width 40µm 20µm in 2030- Single-print still mainstream, Dual-print gains share
avg. module power 330W labeled ; ** Assumption ≈ 30,800t / 991.8 MOz 2019 market https://www.silverinstitute.org/all-world-silver-surveys/
BB trend: 5 BB+ is mainstream 3/4 BB will disappear
Rear side Al trend:850mg for mono-facial 200mg for bifacial
bifacial uses 25% only
Trend: remaining Silver Trend: number of bus bars
Trend: remaining Aluminum
330W (120HC/1.7m²) ≈ 5.5 W/ cell * ≈ 16.4 t / GWp ≈ 2130 t @130GW = 6.9 % of world Silver market 2019**Photography 1996: 40% of annual Silver market**
March 2020: 560 US$/kg ≈ 0.92 $cent/ Wp*
3 /4 BB
5 BB
BB less
6++ BB
ITRPV
Cell: Product – cell efficiencies in mass production
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Trend: cell efficiencies in production n-type leads in efficiency with SHJ and IBC
Trend: Cell fab size 5GW will be min. Fab size
2020 2024 2030mc-Si PERC: 20.8% 21.4% 22.0%p-mono PERC: 22.8 23.2 24.0%n-mono PERX / passivated contacts: 23.1% 24.0% 24.5% may bridge the gap to SHJ SHJ: 23.8% 24.5% 25.0%Tandem: - 27.0% 29.0% expected in 2024
2 GW
≤ 2 GW
≥ 5 GW
ITRPV
Outline
| Dr. Jutta Trube Page 15 | Aug. 8th, 2020
1. ITRPV – Status and PV learning Curve
2. ITRPV – Results 2019- Crystallization & Wafering - Materials, Processes, Products - Cell - Materials, Processes, Products - Module - Materials, Processes, Products - Smart Fab Status- Systems
3. Outlook and Summary
ITRPV
Module: Product – module technology
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Trend: cell dimensions
half cell share will increase module formats and sizes are diversifyinghigher power: w/ larger modules w/ larger cells
half cell
full cell
1/3, 1/5, 1/6 … cell
Trend: CTM
1-1.5 % difference mc- / mono-Si 2 % CTM boost for half-cell module
mono – multi
full – half
ITRPV
Module: Product –module power in mass production
| Dr. Jutta Trube Page 17 | Aug. 8th, 2020
Trend: Module power “60-cell” (G1) format 1.7 m² (all half-cell data)
p-PERC n-PER/TC SHJ2020 half-cell: 345 Wp 355 Wp 360 Wp2024 half-cell: 355 Wp 365 Wp 370 Wp
Trend: Module power “72 cell” (G1) format 2.0 m² full cell (open symbols): lower power
p-PERC n-PER/TC SHJ2020 half cell: 415 Wp 425 Wp 430 Wp2024 half cell: 425 Wp 435 Wp 445 Wp 2024 full cell: 417 Wp
halffull
ITRPV
Module: Product – product warranty
| Dr. Jutta Trube Page 18 | Aug. 8th, 2020
Modules quality improves
improvements cell:- overcome LID by Ga doping- introduction of 9, 12 busbars- AOI
improvements module:- PID resistant encapsulation- half cell technology- MES
Trend: product warranty 2020 2022 2030 1st year degradation: >2% 2% 2% performance warranty: 25y 25y 30y product warranty: 12y 15y 15y
warranty conditions will improve
ITRPV
Outline
| Dr. Jutta Trube Page 19 | Aug. 8th, 2020
1. ITRPV – Status and PV learning Curve
2. ITRPV – Results 2019- Crystallization & Wafering - Materials, Processes, Products - Cell - Materials, Processes, Products - Module - Materials, Processes, Products - Smart Fab Status- Systems
3. Outlook and Summary
ITRPV
Smart fab trends – throughput / OEE / AOI
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Trend: cell process tool throughput
wet keeps the lead >10.000 wf/h soon metallization continues impressive progress thermal processing is still behind
Trend: Overall equipment efficiency (OEE)
Trend: Work in progress (WIP) tracking standard
Will the throughput figures be valid for ≥ M8….M12?
2020 / 2024chemical: 92.5% / 95%metallization: 92% / 94%thermal: 90% / 92.5%
carrier and wafer tracking will become mandatory
link cell to module tracability will be enabled
ITRPV
Smart fab trends – in-line process control /MES
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Trend: in-line inspection in module lines
EL is standard AOI of cells in stringing is in implementation
Fab automation + machine learning will maintain high quality PV products
Trend: in-line process control
printer inspection will lead other inspection at lower share
ITRPV
Outline
| Dr. Jutta Trube Page 22 | Aug. 8th, 2020
1. ITRPV – Status and PV learning Curve
2. ITRPV – Results 2019- Crystallization & Wafering - Materials, Processes, Products - Cell - Materials, Processes, Products - Module - Materials, Processes, Products - Smart Fab Status- Systems
3. Outlook and Summary
ITRPV
System components: application areas
| Dr. Jutta Trube Page 23 | Aug. 8th, 2020
Trend: end-use PV installations
power plant installations stay core application Rooftop share will stay stable Niches: floating PV, building integrated PV
Trend: system voltage
Trend: trackers
1500V
1000V
1-axis tracking
no tracking
Floating PV
power plants
rooftop installations
Building integrated
1500V will become mainstream
1 axis tracking well established but not dominating
VDMA | Dr. Jutta Trube
Systems: LCOE and system trends
Trend: LCOE in different insolation regions2019: China coal-fired power cost***: 4.0 $ct/kWh2020: Germany PV auction – avg.**: 5.4 $ct/kWh
Germany PV auction – min.**: 3.8 $ct/kWh2021: AbuDhabi 1.5GW tender 2020*: 1.35 $ct/Wp
2019: IRENA****weighted avg. LCOE: 6.8 $ct/kwh PV showed steepest learning in renewables PV enables competitive subsidy free LCOE
Aug. 8th, 2020
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* ~1.35 $ct/kWh Abu Dhabi’s 1.5 GW tender draws world record low solar bid: https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/04/28/abu-dhabis-2-gw-tender-draws-world-record-solar-bid-of-0-0135-kwh/?utm_source=pv+magazine+USA&utm_campaign=ec3feac75c-RSS_EMAIL_CAMPAIGN&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_80e0d17bb8-ec3feac75c-158960861** 3.8 $ct/kWh (3.55 €ct) avg. bid February 2020 in Germany (1000 kWh/kWp)** 5.4 $ct/kWh (5.01€ct/kWh) in avg. https://www.pv-tech.org/news/prices-fall-below-4-cent-per-kwh-mark-at-german-solar-auction*** 4.0 $ct /kWh = 0. 283 Yuan/kWh for coal fire power plant (ECOPV data in WSC webinar)****6.8 4$ct/kWh IRENA (2020), Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2019, International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi.. ISBN 978-92-9260-244-4; www.Irena.org/download
ITRPV
Outline
| Dr. Jutta Trube Page 25 | Aug. 8th, 2020
1. ITRPV – Status and PV learning Curve
2. ITRPV – Results 2019- Crystallization & Wafering - Materials, Processes, Products - Cell - Materials, Processes, Products - Module - Materials, Processes, Products - Smart Fab Status- Systems
3. Outlook and Summary
ITRPV
PV today and in future
| Dr. Jutta Trube Page 26 | Aug. 8th, 2020
Different calculated scenarios in 11th edition:BNEF NEO 2019 Breyer (“Electricity”) Breyer (“Broad electrification”)low: 7.6 TWp/ 9.3 PWh (22% global electricity) high: 22 TWp/ 38 PWh (69% global electricity) mix: 63 TWp/ 104PWh (69% global energy)
market peak:400+GWp / 2050 market peak: 1,400+GWp /2050 market peak:4,500+ GW/ 2050 Shipments 2019 were close to approaches!
ITRPV finding:- PV learning continues and progresses, but market will remain volatile esp. in Corona season Several 100GW markets are ahead, and can be served based on todays PV technologies Further effort is required to meet x TWp market requirements!
ITRPV will provide also in future guidance to handle the PV challenges
ITRPV
Thank youThank you
for your attention!to all contributors!
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| Dr. Jutta Trube
Visit us at itrpv.org
Free download of roadmap and presentationSource: www.siemens.com/presse