Diurnal cycles of fossil fuel CO 2 : Comparison of model results with observations at Heidelberg and...
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Transcript of Diurnal cycles of fossil fuel CO 2 : Comparison of model results with observations at Heidelberg and...
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Diurnal cycles of fossil fuel CO2: Comparison of model results with observations at Heidelberg and Schauinsland Felix Vogel 1
including work of:I. Levin 1, U. Karstens 2, C. Rdenbeck 2, M. Krol 3, S. Houweling 3, P. Peylin 4, P. Bousquet 4, C. Aulagnier 4, C. Geels 5, A. Vermeulen 61 Institut fr Umweltphysik, Universitt Heidelberg2 Max-Planck-Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena 3 National Institute for Space Research Utrecht 4 Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette5 National Environmental Research Institute Roskilde6 Energy research Center of the Netherlands, Petten
5th CarboEurope-IP Integrated Project Meeting, Pozna 2007
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Introduction
Methods- Calculating FFCO2 from observations
- Statistics
Comparison- Heidelberg- Schauinsland
Summery & OutlookOutline
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Introduction
Methods- Calculating FFCO2 from observations
- Statistics
Comparison- Heidelberg- Schauinsland
Summery & OutlookOutline
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Calculating FFCO2 from observationsweekly excess D 14C
weekly excess CO2continuous excess COcalculated continuous excess FFCO2weekly excess ratioFFCO2/CO X=weekly excess COweekly excess FFCO2[Levin et al. 2003 GRL Vol.30/23]
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Mean diurnal cycle - Heidelberg 2002Central European TimeCalculating FFCO2 from observations
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Introduction
Methods- Calculating FFCO2 from observations
- Statistics
Comparison- Heidelberg- Schauinsland
Summery & OutlookOutline
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Methods - StatisticsWrong phasing of the diurnal cycle significantly decreases the correlation coefficient !Mean diurnal cycle - Heidelberg summer 2002
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R < 0.2R = 0.63R = 1 Find maximal correlation coefficient Determine time shifts in model data Possibly validate diurnal cycle of the emission inventories No measure for variability! (Amplitude x 2)Methods - StatisticsTime shift = 2hTime shift = 1hTime shift = 0h
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Methods - StatisticsWhy diurnal analysis and not pure comparison of the time series?Advantages: Less sensitive to pollution events Reduction of uncertainties Less computational effortImplicit assumptions: Similar emission statistics for each season Diurnal cycle is significant compared to the noise
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Motivation
Methods- Calculating FFCO2 from observations
- Statistics
Comparison- Heidelberg- Schauinsland
Summery & OutlookOutline
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Results - HeidelbergExcess FFCO2 diurnal cycle Heidelberg Winter 2002unshifted
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Results - HeidelbergExcess FFCO2 diurnal cycle Heidelberg Winter 20020.80.70.30.80.31.2FFCO2, corr = FFCO2,mod xRnmodRnmeasAmplitudeshifted
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Results - HeidelbergExcess FFCO2 diurnal cycle Heidelberg Winter 20020.71.20.61.5Amplitudeshifted0.80.70.30.80.31.2
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Results - HeidelbergExcess FFCO2 diurnal cycle Heidelberg Summer 20022.21.30.72.30.72.10.90.71.40.81.8shiftedAmplitude
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Results - HeidelbergExcess FFCO2 diurnal cycle Heidelberg summer 2002
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Introduction
Methods- Calculating FFCO2 from observations
- Statistics
Comparison- Heidelberg- Schauinsland
Summery & OutlookOutline
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Results - SchauinslandExcess FFCO2 diurnal cycle - Schauinsland Winter 2002unshifted
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Results - SchauinslandExcess FFCO2 diurnal cycle - Schauinsland Winter 2002shifted
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Results - SchauinslandExcess FFCO2 diurnal cycle - Schauinsland Winter 2002
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Motivation
Methods- Calculating FFCO2 from observations
- Statistics
Results- Schauinsland- Heidelberg
Summery & OutlookOutline
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Differences between IER and EDGAR are not significantbut IER seems to perform better in Heidelberg
Large spread in models
Ensemble analysis shows that the significant shifts in the diurnal cycle are not likely due to the inventories
Winter better than summer- less variable boundary layer height in winter- vertical mixing in summer is still a problem
Summery
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Analysis:- Extensive variability analysis- Running R on continuous recordsMethods:- Studies on CO diurnal cycle- Include 14Cbio- Further studies on the radon source- Measurements at more representative sites
Outlook