Distrupol NIPA Presentationpolymersni.com/media/nipa-presentation.pdf · Shale Gas developments in...
Transcript of Distrupol NIPA Presentationpolymersni.com/media/nipa-presentation.pdf · Shale Gas developments in...
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The ‘Development & Supply Partner’ to the Plastics
Industry
Distrupol NIPA
Presentation
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Leading European Supply Partners
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• Oil and Gas to Plastics
• Polymer Consumption Growth by Region
• Pricing Relationships and Trends
• Impact of Shale Gas Development
• The Changing World of Propylene
• Conclusions
4
Pricing and Trends in Commodity Polymers
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Polymers from Oil
5
Transportation
Domestic
Power
Generation
Industry
Other
PetrochemicalsOther
Polymers - 4%
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Petrochemical Feedstock Sources
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Crude
Oil
Gasolines (C5/C6)
(70-140C)
Naphtha- Heavy (C7/C9)
(140-200C)
Atmspheric Gas Oil
Kerosene (C9/C16)
(175-275C)
Diesel Fuel (C15/C25)
(200-370)
Gases
Methane (65-90%)
Ethane, Propane, Butane
Heavy Fractions
Lubricating Oil
Heavy Fuel Oil
Asphalt
Crude Oil
Distillation<29 C
>370 C
200 C
70 C
140 C
300 C
Boiling Point
Yield from Crude Oil
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Cracking Naphtha
8
Quench
Boiler
Primary
Fractionator
Compressors
Distillation
ColumnsBoiler feed
water
Furnace
Naphtha
Steam
Gasoline
Fuel Oil
Propylene
Ethylene
Hydrogen
Methane
Butadiene
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Monomer Yield by Feedstock
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0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Ethane Propane Butane Naphtha Gasoil
Other Hydrocarbons
Butadiene
Propylene
Ethylene
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Feedstock Source by Region
10
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Western Europe Japan USA
Ethane
Propane
Butane
Naphtha
Gasoil
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Ethylene (C2) to Polyethylene
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C=C
H H
H H
C=C
H H
H H
C=C
H H
H H
Ethylene
C C
H
H
H
H
C C
H
H
H
H
Polyethylene
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Polymers from Monomers
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Petrochemical Feedstock
PropyleneBenzene ParaxyleneEthylene
Chlorine
EDC
VCM
Ethylbenzene
Styrene
GP Polystyrene
BR
HI Polystyrene
PTA
PET
MEGPVC
LDPE LLDPE HDPEPP Co PP Homo
Other Feedstock
Intermediate
Polymer
EO
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Global Polymer Demand
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Polymer Growth by Region 1983 - 2011
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Forecast Growth by Region to 2016
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Comments on Pricing
• Current pricing is predominantly influenced by Feedstock
prices
• Crude Oil Prices have remained high
• Supply issues with Crackers have meant high
monomer values
• Crude normally traded in $’s, so currency movements
affect feedstock values
• Overall global supply/demand balance strongly
influenced by Chinese growth rates
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Polyolefins Historic Pricing
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Shale Gas Development
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US Shale Gas Drilling Projects
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% of US Ethylene from different sources
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Gas Vs Oil Disconnect
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The Changing World of Propylene
• Shift to Ethane feedstock in North America – Shale Gas
• Emphasis on continued use of Ethane in Middle East
• Limited co-product supply
• Ethylene derivatives in surplus – propylene shortage
• Limited availability of propylene within refinery systems in
North America and Europe
• Forecast demand growth implies propylene must be
sourced elsewhere
• Propane Dehydrogenation in ME and US
• Refineries and Coal in Asia
• Higher investment costs imply higher propylene values
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PDH Projects across the world
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Conclusions
• Pricing in Commodity Polymer Markets are currently
driven by feedstock prices
• Main driver for Feedstock Prices are Oil/Gas prices and
Exchange Rates
• Shale Gas developments in North America will lead to a
significant cost advantage for C2 producers there
• North America will become a significant exporter of
Ethylene derivatives
• Move to Ethane from Shale Gas for Ethylene will lead to
shortage of Propylene, with oversupply of Ethylene
• Non-traditional routes to Propylene are more expensive,
so price differential between C2 and C3 will increase
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A Polymer for every Application
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