Distributed Energy: Benefits & Technologies · CISCO, Landis & Gyr, SP AusNet (chair), CSIRO •...

Distributed Energy: Benefits & Technologies

Ron Li CSIRO Australia 30 November 2009

Outline for today

•  Electricity industry transformation •  Supply and demand •  Smart grids

•  Distributed energy and climate change •  Motivation and early action •  Value of DE •  Modelling results •  Social transformation

•  Technologies at CSIRO •  Snapshots of some present projects

Ron Li, Distributed Energy and Storage, 30/11/2009

Electricity Industry Transformation


Smart grids and renewable energy integration, Informa DE, 9/6/2009

Electricity industry transformation

Centralised dispatch of fuel-based generation

High level of uncontrolled local generation and

renewable generation

(decreasing control)

Largely passive demand not bidding into market

Customer engagement in demand response

programs

(increasing control)

Smart Grids

What is a “SMART Network”

Advanced Metering

Cohesive Network Management Systems (SCADA, DMS, OMS)

Pervasive Wide-Bandwidth Digital Communications Capability

Enterprise Data Management Systems

Remote Control & Monitoring

Smart Sensors & Appliances

Workforce Mobility

Dynamic Load Management

Network Automation & Self-Healing Sustainable

Network Cells

Distributed Energy Resources

Analytics that Transform Data into Intelligence

User Oriented Presentation Portals

Enterprise Asset Management

Systems

Network diagram courtesy of European Commission EUR 22040


What will the Smart Grid be like?

•  Substantial amount of renewable energy local and remote with storage

•  Plug-in hybrid vehicles supply storage •  Intelligent prediction of generation •  Loads controlled to match generation •  Smart meters in houses •  Switches, breakers, transformers will be web-enabled •  Software agents, on behalf of users, negotiate energy use

based on spot market price •  Distributed sensor networks will detect cascading failures

before they happen •  Agent-based control will negotiate and apply corrective

measures •  Communications will be hardened against hackers


Distributed Energy and Climate Change


Fundamentals

Yields in many developed regions decline even if strong carbon fertilisation

Small Mountain glaciers disappear worldwide –

potential threat to water supplies Sea level threatens cities -

London, Shanghai, New York, Tokyo

Coral reef ecosystems extensively and eventually

irreversibly damaged

Possible onset of collapse of part or all of Amazonian rainforest

Many species face extinction (20-50% in one study)

Rising intensity of storms, forest fires, droughts, flooding and heat waves

Risk of weakening natural carbon absorption and possible increasing natural methane releases and weakening of the Atlantic THC

Onset of irreversible melting of the Greenland ice sheet

Increasing risk of abrupt, large scale shifts in the climate system (collapse of the Atlantic THC, West Antarctic ice

sheet)

food

water

Extreme weather events

ecosystems

Risk of rapid climate change and major irreversible impacts

Falling crop yields in many developing regions

0° 1° 2° 3° 4° 5°

400ppm CO2e

450ppm CO2e

550ppm CO2e

650ppm CO2e

750ppm CO2e Eventual temperature increase (relative to pre-industrial)

5% 95%


Responding to climate change

•  Impacts of climate change will vary with time and space •  Policy, technology and behavioural response also likely to vary

with time and space…therefore •  The rate of technology change in Australia will not necessarily be

driven by local (Australian) challenges, policy or regulation. This is a global problem and we live with global markets

•  The UK and France are legislating for zero emission homes, or for homes to be net producers of energy

•  South Korea spent 81% of its economic stimulus on ‘green’ initiatives, over 12 times more than Australia in real terms

•  China spent over 30%, around 7 times more than South Korea in real terms

•  Ultimately we can choose the extent to which we will benefit from new markets that can solve the climate problem



Key findings on the value of DE

•  DE is a critical early action response to climate change providing immediate, low cost, low emission energy

• We project electricity prices to be significantly lower with deployment of DE – saving $800b over 2006-2050

•  Represents a net social gain that may not necessarily be captured proportionally by those implementing DE

•  The role of DE in reducing emissions cost effectively is more important if technologies such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) and hot dry rocks do not emerge at commercial scale

•  Collectively, distributed energy and renewables significantly reduce the water intensity of energy supply (66% by 2030, 83% by 2050), providing risk insurance against the impact of drought on centralised power supply

•  At projected rate of uptake, we predict DE has largely positive network benefits, few negative impacts


The value of DE – energy mix (Garnaut 450ppm scenario)

The value of DE – emission reductions (Garnaut 450ppm scenario)


The value of DE – water intensity of stationary energy supply (four scenarios)


The value of DE – reducing annual average wholesale price ($/MWh)


BAU

CPRS 15%, no DG

Garnaut 450ppm, no DG

CPRS 15%, with DG

Garnaut 450ppm, with DG

2020 $26.92 $104.72 $68.68 $47.21 $37.94

2030 $36.66 $55.87 $54.97 $35.46 $32.40

2050 $110.74 $110.10 $203.17 $38.67 $52.20

Enabling DE: policy complexity


•  Huge latent demand for addressing climate change, but limited willingness to pay or change behaviour.

•  Policies designed to achieve technology change can impact on drivers for social change in a perverse way

•  Voluntary action/social change can be crowded out

•  Early adopters driven by desire for energy security, making a social statement for its own sake, or setting an example for social change.

•  But still strongly influenced by financial considerations – may prefer avoiding potential loss over benefit seeking?

•  Policy networks can help ensure this complexity is effectively worked through and considered

Technology transformation

Social transformation

But we need both

Enabling DE: Social change is dynamic


Technologies at CSIRO


Local Energy Solutions in CSIRO

•  Energy for Buildings •  APP Solar cooling • Desiccant heating and cooling •  Thermal electrics •  Zero Emissions home •  Electric Driveway – GIV’s

•  Efficient Energy Management •  APP minigrids •  Secure Grids •  Intelligent Heating, Ventillation, and Air Conditioning •  Local Energy Storage •  Intelligent Grid •  Smart Grids


Smart Grids Australia •  Established mid 2008 incorporating Utilitel

•  Currently 41 members

•  Executive members •  Paul Budde, Robin Eckermann, IBM, Country Energy, Integral Energy,

CISCO, Landis & Gyr, SP AusNet (chair), CSIRO

•  .Vision •  The coming decade will be defined by a rampant growth in new Intelligent

Energy technologies.. Making our energy systems “smart” holds the key to protecting our planet and to fuelling our global economy.

•  Innovative approaches to deliver energy-efficient and environmentally-friendly processes and products will be enabled by the application of information systems.

•  Empower the user to actively participate in this process, through a range of interactive intelligent home appliances.


Government stimulus – July 2009


Intelligent HVAC


•  Control building heating, ventilation, and air conditioning • Optimise each HVAC zone for occupant comfort •  Deployed in several Hornsby Library and CSIRO buildings

Solar heating and cooling


Zero Emission Home – first demonstration house (Melbourne)

Laurimar


Vehicles & Local Storage

Electric Vehicle

‘Second Life’ EV batteries deployed as distributed storage

Smart Meter

Touchscreen Display & User Control Interface

House Monitoring & Control System

Internet Connection

13.4

5.8

3.5 157

12.1

Home Energy

Management

Site Solar Gen.

Site Wind Gen.

Intelligent House & Grid Integration

SmartGrid

Networks

Large Scale Renewables

Fossil Fuel


ZEH and the Electric Driveway

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

0:30 2:00 3:30 5:00 6:30 8:00 9:30 11:00 12:30 14:00 15:30 17:00 18:30 20:00 21:30 23:00 0:30 Time of Day

Pow

er D

eman

d (k

W)

Room heater Light Stove Peak WH Oven Refrigeration Cooktop Video/TV Pool Microwave Freezer Water Bed Clothes Dryer Dishwasher Washing Machine Misc Air Conditioners Off Peak 2 Water

Air Cond.

PHEV

PHEV Off Peak

Vehicle to House/Grid load management (peak load reduced)

Source: UTS Sustainable Futures


Vehicle to home/grid load management (Summer peak in NSW)

•  What if we introduced regulations, policies, incentives & technologies over different time frames?

•  What would be required to bring down Australia’s housing stock’s carbon footprint to be 5% of 2000 levels in 2020? 60% by 2050?


House-stock level modelling

•  Plug-in charge & discharge •  Extra battery capacity x4 •  Advanced monitoring &

control of energy flow


Conversion of 3 Toyota Prius for SP AusNet

Data analysis for self-healing grids •  Planning for optimal sensor placement (within a grid)

•  Multiple sensor layouts available - which one is best to use? •  Maximise value of information & minimise cost of sensor

deployment? • Demand forecasting:

•  Deal with large amounts of multi-dimensional data? •  Anomaly/event detection (within a grid):

•  Identify faults, outliers, and adapt the “event” definitions in real-time? • Risk assessment:

•  Deal with cascading failures, and likelihood-severity profiles? • Optimal real-time control of distributed nodes:

•  Reconcile multiple objectives (e.g., demand-supply)? •  Self-healing (grid):

•  Integrate monitoring, evaluation, diagnosis, prognosis, decision-making and control systems?


Control systems for smart grids

Thanks to Dave Cohen , GridWise & Geoff James CSIRO

Self organising complex system

SCADA tomorrow

SCADA today


Security attributes for self-healing smart grids

•  Make electricity system less vulnerable to disruptions due to intentional acts

•  Help restore the integrity of the national electricity system subsequent to disruptions.

•  Facilitate nationwide, interoperable emergency communications & control of the electricity system during times of localized, regional, or nationwide emergency.

•  Identify/manage risks which create vulnerability to security threats as a result of the ICT infrastructure


What is a Minigrid?

1.  Local distributed generation 2.  Local loads 3.  Energy Management System


CSIRO Minigrid planning tool

• Models for generators, renewables, power lines and batteries

•  Uses load profiles to accommodate hourly changes in power flow

•  Provides a trade-off between competing objectives

•  Software at prototype demonstration stage


Next-generation inverters

•  The inverter is the enabling technology for distributed generation

•  Contains micro-controller that could be re-programmed to: • Collect and share electrical data

across the minigrid •  Provide reactive power support • Correct harmonics •  Adaptively adjust its parameters

to maximise efficiency •  Participate in shared fault

awareness


The Wizard’s toolbox: energy storage

•  Costs for large-scale storage (New Scientist, 11/10/2008) •  CAES: US$700 per kW •  Na-S: US$2000 per kW •  Zn-Br: US$2900 per kW (???) •  Zn-Br: A$1,750/kW in 2010 A$437/kW in 2016 •  Vanadium: US$3150 per kW •  Compare with coal: US$475 per kW

•  But these are misleading •  Each technology presents a different relationship between power

capacity, power duration, and energy capacity •  Costs will be transformed by the electric car industry

•  Proposition: storage may be efficiently provided at local customer and network sites


Storage – distribute and aggregate

Transmission services through market dispatch

Firmness for renewable

energy generators

Distribution support and peak

load mitigation Secure supply

and tariff management for

customers

DISTRIBUTED LOCAL STORAGE

CENTRAL STORAGE

Value streams Technical requirements

•  Perhaps local, distributed storage may be more effective than large, central storage because it enables multiple applications and therefore multiple value streams?


Customer proposition

• Multiple applications for local storage technologies •  Tariff plays for the customer (time-of-use and feed-in) •  Network support services (peak load, voltage support, total flow) •  Aggregation for the market (FCAS may be feasible) •  Aggregation for renewable energy businesses (peaking plants)

•  Each of these can generate a revenue stream •  Local storage may efficiently meet the national requirement •  Attractive for second-life batteries and battery-swap stations

•  Presently engaged in a quantitative study •  Placement, sizing, and application in distribution networks •  Valuation of storage from a customer/owner perspective •  National requirement/market for storage technologies


National scale: storage versus transmission


Vision for a trans-SE-Asia energy network (Desertec Australia)

•  Desertec Australia is inspired by proposals to obtain power for Europe from the Sahara desert.

• Overlapping gas and electricity infrastructures to reduce costs.

•  Access massive solar, wind, and geothermal resources in China and Australia.


Contact Us Phone: 1300 363 400 or +61 3 9545 2176

Email: [email protected] Web: www.csiro.au

Thank you


CSIRO ICT Centre Ron Li Senior Research Scientist

Phone: +61 2 9372 4714 Email: [email protected] Web: www.ict.csiro.au

Distributed Energy: Benefits & Technologies · CISCO, Landis & Gyr, SP AusNet (chair), CSIRO •...

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