Disruption and Transformation of the ICT Industry After COVID

Jason Schenker CMT® CFP® FLTACertified Futurist and Long-Term Analyst

NACD Governance FellowPresident of Prestige Economics

Chairman of The Futurist Institute

COVID-19 Disruption

Technology Saved the Day – and was Already Ascending

• Remote Work

• Online Education

• E-Commerce

Global ICT Market Forecasts – Trillions USD

Source: IDC, Prestige Economics, The Futurist Institute

ForecastsHistorical

Global ICT Industry Breakdown (2019) / New Technologies to Grow

Source: IDC, Prestige Economics, The Futurist Institute

New Technologies in ICT Industry Breakdown

Data Source: 2017 Data from IDCAnalysis from: Prestige Economics, The Futurist Institute

Remote Work

FT Survey: Most Critical Technologies Impacting Millennial Future Work

Source: Financial Times: https://www.ft.com/content/0c7906d6-be89-11e5-9fdb-87b8d15baec2

*Based on Interviews with 16-25 year olds in 9 countries.

**Percent who named the driver in their top 3.

34%

33%

28%

27%

25%

21%

20%

Mobile/Internet/Cloud Technology

Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning

The Rise of Big Data

The Internet of Things

Advanced Robotics/AutonomousTransport

Advanced Manufacturing/3D Printing

Shifts in Gender Equality

Change in Commuter Mode Change Between 2005 and 2015

Source: Global Workplace Analytics, Flexjobs, U.S. Census Data, Prestige Economics, The Futurist Institute

Recent Averages on U.S. Remote Work

Source: BLS, Prestige Economics, The Futurist Institute

Occupational Remote Workers

Source: BLS, Prestige Economics, The Futurist Institute

Source: BLS, Prestige Economics, LLC

American Workers who Teleworked or Worked from Home at any Time in September 2020 Because of the COVID-19 Pandemic – by Education

Education Level 25 Years and Over

1 Data refer to those who teleworked or worked at home for pay specifically because of the coronavirus pandemic. This does not include those whose telework was unrelated to the pandemic, such as those who worked entirely from home before the pandemic.

Source: BLS, Prestige Economics, The Futurist Institute

Education

Source: Class Central: https://www.class-central.com/report/moocs-2015-stats/

Growth of Massive Open Online Courses

Source: BLS, Prestige Economics

Relationship Between Education, Unemployment and Wages

Source: Arntz, Gregory, and Zierahn (2016) calculations based on the PIAAC 2012, White House, Prestige Economics.

Share of Jobs with Highly Automatable Skills by Education

44%

19%

8%6%

1% 0%0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Less than HighSchool

Diploma

High SchoolDiploma orEquivalent

Trade SchoolCertificate

AssociatesDegree

BachelorsDegree

GraduateDegree

Supply Chain

E-Commerce Retailer Percent

Source: Census, FRED, Prestige Economics, LLC

Future New Orders for Material Handling Show Record Strength

Source: MHI, Prestige Economics, LLC

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Future New Orders (12-Months Ahead, Compared to Current)

Future New Orders

Six-Month Moving Average

Expansion > 50Breakeven = 50Contraction < 50

Breakeven Line

Total Major PMIs Expanding

Source: Markit, ISM, Prestige Economics, LLC

Looking Beyond 2021

Risks and Opportunities for ICT Industries

• Regulation

• Governance

• Trade War

• Remote Life

• Convenience

• Automation ROI

• Safety and Contactless

• Data Volume and IoT

Risks Opportunities

Moore’s Law is Breaking Down

Source: Ray Kurzweil, DFJ, Rodney Brooks, Prestige Economics LLC, The Futurist Institute

Big Uses and Successes by Implementation Difficulty

Source: HBR, NewVantage Partners Big Data Executive Survey (2017), Prestige Economics

Easiest

Toughest

Cut Costs

Finding New Innovations

Transforming a Business

Establish a Data Driven Culture

Global ICT Market Forecasts

Source: IDC, Prestige Economics, The Futurist Institute

ForecastsHistorical

Quantum Computing

Source: Image Courtesy of Google

Global and Korean Trends in ICT

Regional Dynamics ICT Breakdown with Asian Importance

Data Source: 2017 Data from IDCAnalysis from: Prestige Economics, The Futurist Institute

Emerging ICT Activities with Asian Importance

Data Source: 2017 Data from IDCAnalysis from: Prestige Economics, The Futurist Institute

Korean ICT Market Importance Growing – Forecasts in Trillions KRW

Source: Statista, Prestige Economics, The Futurist Institute

ForecastsHistorical

Represents around 10% of global ICT

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