Discovering the economic and climatic boundaries for cropland expansion in Ethiopia

Emily Schmidt and Timothy S. ThomasInternational Food Policy Research Institute

The Future of Ethiopia’s Agriculture: Towards a Resilient System to End

Hunger and Undernutrition

Addis Ababa HiltonDecember 15, 2017Addis Ababa

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Factors associated with changes in cropland

– Evaluate land area change over time (2001-2013) taking into account economic and climatic conditions

Estimate the maximum [economic] cropland expansion potential

– Taking into account a kebele’s unique characteristics, what is the maximum [economic] crop expansion it could achieve?

– Based on current cropped area share, how much more can each kebele expand their cropland share?

Plan of presentation

Agricultural land expansion contributed an important share to overall agricultural GDP growth

All crops Cereals

Non-

cereals

Share of agricultural GDP in 2004/05 100 56.2 43.8

Share of agricultural GDP in 2013/14 100 54.9 45.1

Contribution to total agricultural GDP 100 53.8 46.2

Increase in crop yields 60.3 40.7 19.7

Cultivated land expansion 27.5 15.4 12.0

Reallocating land to higher value

crops 12.2 -2.3 14.5

Contribution to agricultural GDP change, 2004/05-2013/14 (%)

Satellite data analysis of landcover over time

• Use satellite landcover data to evaluate landcover changes over time

– MODIS land use and landcover satellite data produced by NASA: 500 meter resolution between 2001 and 2013

– Average satellite data over time periods: 2001-2004 and 2010-2013

– Estimate kebele averages of cropped area over time (excluding Somali and Afar)

Highland and lowland agriculture classifications

– Ethiopian highlands (>1500 meters above sea level) account for:

• 27% of total landmass

• 92% of total cultivated cereal area

• 81% of the total population

Share of cropped area in 2010-13

Percentage point change in crop area from 2001-04 to 2010-13

Agricultural land expansion appears to be slowing down

Source: Calculated from MODIS satellite data.

Tigray SNNP Amhara Oromia Other Total2001-04 to 2005-09 2.7% 1.2% 3.9% 2.1% -1.5% 2.7%

2005-09 to 2009-13 0.1% -1.1% 0.8% 3.2% 4.0% 1.2%

2001-04 to 2009-13 1.2% 0.0% 2.1% 2.3% 1.1% 1.8%

Total 2001-13 11.6% 0.3% 20.3% 23.2% 10.3% 17.0%

Average Annual Growth in Crop Area, 2001-04 to 2009-13

Evaluating factors associated with change in cropland

• How do bioeconomic variables influence the change in proportion of kebele area in cropland:

∆𝐶 = 𝛼1𝐶 + 𝛼2𝐶2 + 𝑋𝛽 + 𝜖

• After identifying the factors associated with changes in cropland, we solve for the steady state in land conversion, where ∆𝐶 = 0

∆𝐶 = 0 = 𝛼1𝐶 + 𝛼2𝐶2 + 𝑋𝛽 + 𝜖

𝐶 =−𝛼1 ± 𝛼1

2 − 4𝛼2𝑋𝛽

2𝛼2

Factors associated with crop area expansion

• Initial share of cropland:

– The initial share of cropland significantly effects expansion potential

• Compared to a kebele with 40% crop area, the kebele with 8 percent converted 14 percent more land

• Elevation, terrain and precipitation:

– Higher elevation and greater rainfall is associated with greater conversion

• Too much rain decreases land conversion (after 700mm of rain/year)

– Greater terrain roughness is associated with decreases in ag area expansion

• Access to markets:

– The farther a kebele is from town, the lower the probability of converting to cropland.

– A kebele that is the median (distance) from a town (appx. 8 hours) will convert to cropland at a rate of 2.7 percent slower than a kebele next to a town of at least 20k

Maximum [economic] potential cropped area

The highlands, along roads leading to Addis Ababa, have the maximum projected cropland percentages – in the country

Area expansion potential

The highlands have greater potential for cropped area, however much of this land is already cultivated

Area expansion potential

Current % cropland

Potential % cropland

Potential % expansion

Lowlands 15.9 34.5 18.6

Highlands 40.5 53.5 13.0

Ethiopia 37.0 50.9 13.8

• Percent in cropland in the highlands is 150% greater than in the lowlands

• Potential for cropland is over 50% higher in the highlands compared to the lowlands

• Area expansion potential is 50% higher in the lowlands

Urbanization and market connectivity may affect agricultural land area expansion potential

Agglomeration index 2007 Agglomeration index 2015

• Secondary city growth• Agglomeration index: measurement of urbanization taking into

account population density and access to an urban center

• Continued investment in transportation infrastructure

Medium size cities are growing at 5-6% per year.

1984-94 1994-07 2007-15

Cities 100-500k - 6.31% 5.09%

Cities 50-99k 5.37% 6.78% 6.15%

Cities/Towns 20-49k 4.81% 5.29% 5.74%

Growth rates of medium size cities

Maximum [economic] potential cropped area

Maximum [economic] potential cropped area (decreased travel time)

How does improvements in road infrastructure affect potential share of cropland

Potential % cropland

Potential with better

connectivity

Increase in potential cropland

Lowlands 34.5 48.3 13.8

Highlands 53.5 56.0 2.4

Ethiopia 50.9 54.9 4.0

• Increasing market access to urban centers (20k) does not substantially increase the potential to expand agricultural area in the highlands

• Better connectivity increases the potential to expand agricultural area in the lowlands

Summary

• Agricultural area expansion in the highlands (>1500 masl) is reaching its maximum [economic] potential

• Ethiopia should think strategically and spatially about future agricultural productivity

– Continue to promote agricultural intensification in the highlands

– Seek out opportunities to expand agricultural area in the lowlands where underlying economic and climatic factors support agricultural production