Dimencoes Humanas das Mudancas Globais Ambientais: Os desafios para LBA _____________ Human...

Dimencoes Humanas das Dimencoes Humanas das Mudancas Globais Ambientais: Mudancas Globais Ambientais:

Os desafios para LBAOs desafios para LBA__________________________

Human Dimensions & Global Human Dimensions & Global Environmental Change: The Environmental Change: The

challenge for LBAchallenge for LBA

Emilio F. MoranEmilio F. MoranIndiana UniversityIndiana University

What are What are “human dimensions”?“human dimensions”?

NOT JUST ANTHROPOLOGY, OR NOT JUST ANTHROPOLOGY, OR GEOGRAPHY OR SOCIOLOGY OR GEOGRAPHY OR SOCIOLOGY OR

ECONOMICS OR ECONOMICS OR ““SOCIAL SCIENCES”SOCIAL SCIENCES”

Human dimensions is a way of thinking Human dimensions is a way of thinking about how we do the science: caring to about how we do the science: caring to know what civil society thinks, what are know what civil society thinks, what are their priorities, what do they do, what their priorities, what do they do, what

do they want to know?do they want to know?

In short, how do people impact the In short, how do people impact the environment, and how does the environment, and how does the

environment impact peopleenvironment impact people

What are the reciprocal relations between What are the reciprocal relations between people and the environment?people and the environment?

One of the biggest obstacles we face One of the biggest obstacles we face is the traditional division of labor in is the traditional division of labor in doing science, where there is a lack doing science, where there is a lack

of understanding between the of understanding between the natural and the social sciences —we natural and the social sciences —we need to move towards defining the need to move towards defining the

research questions together so they research questions together so they constitute integrative questions constitute integrative questions

about human-environment about human-environment interactionsinteractions

For example, we can begin to examine how a For example, we can begin to examine how a change in the price of a commodity (e.g. cacao) change in the price of a commodity (e.g. cacao)

in the world market affects the behavior of in the world market affects the behavior of farmers (how long before farmers begin to farmers (how long before farmers begin to

increase area planted), and how this shift in increase area planted), and how this shift in land use affects biogeochemical fluxes (is the land use affects biogeochemical fluxes (is the

shift from forest to cacao, from pasture to shift from forest to cacao, from pasture to cacao, from secondary forest to cacao), and cacao, from secondary forest to cacao), and

how long after prices collapse do farmers shift how long after prices collapse do farmers shift away from it, and those impacts on the away from it, and those impacts on the

physical system and household income.physical system and household income.

We need to recognize that to do We need to recognize that to do human dimensions, we need to human dimensions, we need to

incorporate what matters to incorporate what matters to people into what we examine people into what we examine

scientifically, and that we need to scientifically, and that we need to think how to transfer knowledge think how to transfer knowledge to society, knowledge they can to society, knowledge they can

use use

We need to ask integrated We need to ask integrated questions and to invest in questions and to invest in

getting integrative answers. For getting integrative answers. For example we currently have the example we currently have the capability to observe the earth capability to observe the earth

every few days, daily with some every few days, daily with some satellites…. And even with this satellites…. And even with this

knowledge we have trouble knowledge we have trouble capturing what is happeningcapturing what is happening

1970 Área de colonização

lotes


lotes

Now, just think about the Now, just think about the problem of having an problem of having an

observation of the human observation of the human population in each country only population in each country only

every ten years, through the every ten years, through the demographic census…. How do demographic census…. How do

we link daily observations to we link daily observations to decadal observations? How do decadal observations? How do

we link natural and social we link natural and social sciences?sciences?

Putting the parts togetherPutting the parts together• We need to sit together with a real interest in

surpassing our disciplinary biases, • adding respect for the way others think• try to link data • critically deal with how to sample and how to

measure• how to deal with the whole rather than only with

the parts– • this will require humility, learning a lot of different

ways to get at a problem, and to jointly choose the best approach for the question asked.

• Actually working together in the field in one of the best ways…

Grandes Desafios das Ciencias Grandes Desafios das Ciencias AmbientaisAmbientais

(NRC)(NRC)• 200 temas foram considerados• 8 desafios foram seleccionados• 4 deles para acao imediata• Sine qua non de cada desafio:

integracao das ciencias sociais e naturais

Os 8 DesafiosOs 8 Desafios• Ciclos biogeoquimicos• Diversidade Biologica e Funcionamento do

Ecossistema • Variabilidade Climatica• Sistemas Hidrologicos• Doencas Infecciosas e meio ambiente• Instituicoes e Uso de Recursos• Dinamica do Uso da Terra• Innovacoes no uso de materiais

4 desafios: Acao imediata4 desafios: Acao imediata

• #1• Diversidade Biologica e Funcionamente

dos EcossistemasAtividades: Desenho e manejo de habitats

que possam suportar uso pela biota nativa e uso humano; Impacto da perda da diversidade para a sociedade e os servicos do ecossistema

#2#2

Previsao dos Sistemas Hidrologicos:Atividades: estudo das consequencias

das mudancas nos regimes hidrologicos; estudos das atividades que afetam os sistemas aquaticos

#3#3

• Doencas Infecciosas e Meio Ambiente Atividades: estudos sinteticos e evolutivos das

doencas infecciosas que afetam saude humana, e da flora e fauna; desenvolvimento de uma nova area interdisciplinar com enfoque nos efeitos das interacoes ecologicas sobre a selecao de agentes patogenicos e sua virulencia.

# 4 # 4

• Dynamica do Uso da TerraAtividades: estudos espacialmente explicitos

sobre as mudancas no uso da terra e na cobertura terrestre, as consequencias destas mudancas. Novas formas de simulacao dinamica e espacial.

Avancando na area de Avancando na area de dimensoes humanasdimensoes humanas

Estudos a nivel regionalPapel de Centros de Pesquisa IntegradaCrescer o treinamento em pesquisa

interdisciplinarDa disciplinaridade para a pesquisa

integrada e interdisciplinarGarantindo que a Ciencia beneficia os

varios setores da sociedade, e nao so um

SCIENCE PLANNING SCIENCE PLANNING for the new for the new

Global Land ProjectGlobal Land ProjectIGBP and IHDPIGBP and IHDP

CO-CHAIRS:CO-CHAIRS:Dennis OjimaDennis OjimaEmilio Moran Emilio Moran

The Global LAND ProjectCo-chairs:

Emilio Moran and Dennis Ojima

HERITAGE OF HERITAGE OF LANDLAND

GCTE AND LUCCGCTE AND LUCC

GCTE Global Change and Terrestrial Ecosystems [gcte.org]

Global Change Effect s on Vegetation and Disturbance Regimes

Global Change, Agroecological Processes and Production Systems

Contemporary and Future Terrestrial Carbon Sources and Sinks

Changing Biodiversity and itsConsequences on Ecosystem Functioning

Land Use and Cover Change (LUCC)• Focus one: Comparative Case Studies

• Focus 2:Observations of Land Use/Cover Change

• Focus 3: Integrative Assessment and Modeling

GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE

•INSTITUTIONS(formal and informal)

•POLICY(Incentives,Conservation,Land tenure)

•Culture(Perception, values,Ethics)

•ECONOMY(valuation, cost-benefit)

•DEMOGRAPHY(Number, gender,Consumption, age)

•BioGeochemistry(soil fertility,OM levels,Fluxes)

•BioDiversity(Species, community,Landscape,Genetic,Functional)

•BioPhysics(albedo, Energy exchange,Structure)

LAN

D U

SE

GCTELUCC

OriginsOrigins

• IGBP I , IHDP, WCRP, DIVERSITAS• GCTE, LUCC, BAHC, IGAC and

PAGES, and contributions of many more

• “Terrestrial Futures” meeting• Assessment Community (e.g., IPCC, MEA,

etc.)

OBJETIVO OBJETIVO dodo

Global Land ProjectGlobal Land Project

IDENTIFICAR, E AVALIAR AS MUDANCAS NO SISTEMA HUMANO-AMBIENTAL E OS THRESHOLDS DE VULNERABILIDADE EM VARIAS ESCALAS: LOCAL, REGIONAL E GLOBAL

Drivers and Dynamics

Goods and Services

Vulnerabilidade

Thematic approaches:

Tema 1: Drivers and DynamicsTema 1: Drivers and Dynamics(Exemplos de Atividades)(Exemplos de Atividades)

• Mudancas no ciclo de Nitrogenio• Interacoes entre as mudancas climaticas e as

mudancas criadas pela populacao humana• Mudancas no uso da terra e o resultado em

movimentos de gases, aerosoles, e sedimentos• Mudancas na frequencia e magnitude de fogo

com as mudancas globais• Mudancas historicas no estoques de carbono

Tema 2: Goods and ServicesTema 2: Goods and Services(Exemplos de Atividades)(Exemplos de Atividades)

• Impacto e feedbacks da agricultura• Multiple Estresses multiples e a

capacidade e resiliencia dos sistemas terrestres em estocar o carbono

• Como os sistemas biofisicos e humanos interagem para afetar a vulnerabilidade dos sistemas complexos?

Tema 3: VulnerabilidadeTema 3: Vulnerabilidade(Exemplos de Atividades)(Exemplos de Atividades)

• As diferencas em escala das vulnerabilidades dos sistemas naturais e humanos

• Dinamicas da paisagem urbano• Mudancas na distribuicao da

biodiversidade em sistemas dominados pela acao humana e as consequencias para a vulnerabilidade destes sistemas

The Earth System

Eco

syst

em S

ervi

ces

Integrative Analysisand Modeling

T3.1 Emergent Properties & ThresholdsT3.2 Vulnerability-SustainabilityT3.3 Effective governanceT3.4 Data and models

T1: Causes and Nature of Land System ChangeT2: Consequences of Land System ChangeT3: Integrative Analysis and Modeling

Dec

isio

n m

akin

g

Environment Sub-System [Ecosystem]• BGC• Biodiversity• Biophysical properties•Water•Soils•NPP and Yields•Pest and Diseases•Pollinators•Herbivores

Human Sub-System• Agent heterogeneity• Institutions• Markets & infrastructure• Population•Culture and knowledge systems•Environmental histories•Technology

T1.1

T1.2

T2.4

T2.3

T1.3

Land Use & Management

Coupled Land System

Disturbance

T2.1T2.2

Trade-offs in multi-use landscapesTrade-offs in multi-use landscapes

extensive intensive

urbanprotectedIntendedhigh food production

Unintendedwater and air pollution,biodiversity lossIntended

nature conservation,recreation

Unintendedchanged fire regime

• Trade-offs• within individual land use types

• spatial arrangement and connections• across land use types• spatial and temporal scales

Glo

b al a

ndre

gion

a l c

o nte

x tRegionaltrade-offs

Foley et al. 2003

Effects of climate-induced land Effects of climate-induced land cover change on surface cover change on surface

properties of transition zonesproperties of transition zones

Spread of Population Over Spread of Population Over Indiana 1810-1880Indiana 1810-1880

ForestWetlandPrairieWaterRow CropPasture/GrasslandUrban

Landcover Circa 1820 (Lindsey)

Landcover 1992 (Indiana GAP Analysis)

Landcover has Changed from Primarily Forest to Primarily Agriculture

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Year

Perc

ent F

ores

t in

Indi

ana

Indiana has Experienced Massive Indiana has Experienced Massive Deforestation in the 1800s Followed Deforestation in the 1800s Followed

by Reforestation in this Centuryby Reforestation in this Century

Primary Forest

Secondary Forest

IHDP Global Change and Human Security Core Project

Aids is not just a direct killer but a major contributor to famine, according to aid agencies. Some countries are expected to lose a quarter of their agricultural workforce to Aids by 2020. Early deaths deprive new generations of vital knowledge about farming methods, while food consumption in families hit by HIV/Aids drops by up to 40%.

O impacto da globalizacao O impacto da globalizacao economicaeconomica

• Perda da autonomia das pessoas, no primeiro e no terceiro mundo

• Acordos mercantis regionais resultam na imposicao de estrategias que danificam o ambiente

• Esforcos dos cidadaos limitados a escolher entre alternativas parecidas, e nao questionar o conceito mesmo

• Nao e facil questionar o processo

Interstate 69“The NAFTA Corridor”

Connection to the Connection to the International Human International Human

Dimensions Programme Dimensions Programme (IHDP)(IHDP)

Comparison of Land Use SystemsComparison of Land Use SystemsInstitutionsInstitutions

Biodiversity and ConservationBiodiversity and ConservationVulnerability and SustainabilityVulnerability and Sustainability

Population and EnvironmentPopulation and Environment

Declining Age-Specific FertilityDeclining Age-Specific Fertility

Age-Specific Fertility Rates by Birth Cohort, Altamira

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

0.5

15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49

1930-19341935-19391940-19441945-19491950-19541955-19591960-19641965-19691970-1974

Source: Authors’ estimates from 1998 survey data

Age-Specific Fertility Rates by Birth Cohort, Santarem

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49

1930-19391940-19491950-19591960-19691970-19791980-1989

Source: Authors’ estimates from 2003 survey data

Dimensoes Humanas no LBADimensoes Humanas no LBA

Levantamento bibliografico Levantamento bibliografico revelourevelou

na decada dos 90 na decada dos 90 97 livros, 87 monografias,97 livros, 87 monografias,120 teses e disertacoes120 teses e disertacoes

e grande numero de artigos e e grande numero de artigos e capituloscapitulos

Temas principais tratados:Temas principais tratados:

Populacao e DesenvolvimentoPopulacao e DesenvolvimentoPopulacoes IndigenasPopulacoes IndigenasMigracao e DemografiaMigracao e Demografia

Politicas Publicas para AmazoniaPoliticas Publicas para AmazoniaAtividades agropecuariasAtividades agropecuarias

Economia Politica e Credito RuralEconomia Politica e Credito RuralSistemas Urbanos e IndustriaisSistemas Urbanos e Industriais

AgronegociosAgronegociosEducacao e SaudeEducacao e Saude

What is lacking?What is lacking?

Lack of syntheses at regional Lack of syntheses at regional scale on major themes of HDscale on major themes of HD

Evans, T.P., et al. 2001 Ecological Modelling 143:95-113

S c e n a r i o 1 L a n d U s e F r e q u e n c i e s ( L a n d s c a p e V e r s i o n )

0

2 0 0

4 0 0

6 0 0

8 0 0

1 0 0 0

1 2 0 0

1 4 0 0

1 6 0 0

0 5 1 0 1 5 2 0 2 5 3 0 3 5 4 0

T i m e

Num

ber o

f Hec

tares

R i c e B e a n s M a i z e

M a n i o c C a c a o B l a c k P e p p e r

P a s t u r e ( n o c a t t l e ) P a s t u r e ( w i t h c a t t l e )

L a n d u s e f r e q u e n c i e s f o r s c e n a r i o 1 u s i n g t h e l a n d s c a p e v e r s i o n o f L U C I T A

S c e n a r i o 1 L a n d U s e F r e q u e n c i e s ( L a n d s c a p e V e r s i o n )

0

2 0 0

4 0 0

6 0 0

8 0 0

1 0 0 0

1 2 0 0

0 5 1 0 1 5 2 0 2 5 3 0 3 5 4 0

T i m e

Num

ber o

f Hec

tares

R i c e B e a n s M a i z e

M a n i o c C a c a o B l a c k P e p p e r

P a s t u r e ( n o c a t t l e ) P a s t u r e ( w i t h c a t t l e )

L a n d u s e f r e q u e n c i e s f o r s c e n a r i o 2 u s i n g t h e l a n d s c a p e v e r s i o n o f L U C I T A

K. Lim, et al. In press

T = 1

t = 1 0

t = 2 0

t = 3 0

t = 4 0

S n a p s h o t s o f s c e n a r i o 1 s i m u l a t i o n u s i n g 1 - h o u s e h o l d v e r s i o n o f

L U C I T A .

t = 1

t = 1 0

t = 2 0

t = 3 0

t = 4 0

S n a p s h o t s o f s c e n a r i o 2 s i m u l a t i o n u s i n g 1 - h o u s e h o l d v e r s i o n o f

L U C I T A .

L e g e n d K e y f o r F i g u r e x a n d F i g u r e x . ( B l a c k s q u a r e i s a h o u s e )

K. Lim, et al. In press

Índice de Chuvas em Santarém (Anos de 1980-2000)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Ano

Prec

ipita

cao

(mm

)

1972-73 1977-78

Chuvas em Santarém Anos de 1980-2000Chuvas em Santarém Anos de 1980-2000e Anos de El Ninoe Anos de El Nino

Anos de seca mais lembrados

Anos de El Nino

Efeitos de um Ano Seco

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

Pasto Seco Atraso noPlantio

Diminuiçãode Colheita

Aumento daÁrea

Suscetível aoFogo

Fogo Invade aPropriedadedo Vizinho

Fogo Entrana sua Área

Problemas deRespiração

Acidentes deTrânsito

Afeta aCapoeira

Afeta o Gado PerdasEconômicas

Tamanho da Amostra= 442 (Multiplas RespostasPermitidas)

Efeitos de um Ano SecoEfeitos de um Ano Seco

Ocorrencia de incendio acidental em Santarem e Altamira2001 e 2002

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

Altamira Santarem

Ano

Oco

rren

cia

de fo

go a

cide

ntal

What do the local people think?What do the local people think?

• In some locations, they are mobilizing: concerned with what they recognize are changes in local patterns of precipitation

• In the two regions, i.e. Altamira and Santarem, they comment that the rainy season now commonly starts two months later than it did just 25 years ago

• In Santarem, the vulnerability is even greater during ENSO events, when drought increases the vulnerability of forests to burn

• They understand there must be a connection between forest cover and precipitation– and want to create a large protected area to ensure adequate precipitation for their agriculture

What is needed?What is needed?

Invest in syntheses of knowledge already availableInvest in syntheses of knowledge already availableConnecting syntheses to major themes of HDConnecting syntheses to major themes of HDCreate a database of researchers to facilitate Create a database of researchers to facilitate

creation of networkscreation of networksIdentify an agenda for what should be addressed Identify an agenda for what should be addressed

next as priorities in research on HDnext as priorities in research on HDFocus on underlying factors: intra-regional Focus on underlying factors: intra-regional

migration processes and public policies that affect migration processes and public policies that affect human-environment dynamics (particularly human-environment dynamics (particularly

infrastructure, environmental management, and infrastructure, environmental management, and zoning)zoning)

New approaches are needed to link science to New approaches are needed to link science to society:society:

engaging stakeholders in defining what they need engaging stakeholders in defining what they need to know to solve environmental problems and have to know to solve environmental problems and have

science deliver the tools and information.science deliver the tools and information.

Finding common ground and working together as Finding common ground and working together as scientists in the service of civil societyscientists in the service of civil society

THANK YOUTHANK YOU

Dimencoes Humanas das Mudancas Globais Ambientais: Os desafios para LBA _____________ Human...

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