Shirish Patil, Principal Investigator, UAF Abhijit Dandekar, Co- Principal Investigator, UAF And
Developing Human System Modules for Climate Models Jessie Cherry, IARC/ARSC@UAF.
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Transcript of Developing Human System Modules for Climate Models Jessie Cherry, IARC/ARSC@UAF.
![Page 1: Developing Human System Modules for Climate Models Jessie Cherry, IARC/ARSC@UAF.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e3b5503460f94b2d778/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Developing Human System Modules for Climate Models
Jessie Cherry, IARC/ARSC@UAF
![Page 2: Developing Human System Modules for Climate Models Jessie Cherry, IARC/ARSC@UAF.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e3b5503460f94b2d778/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Typical treatment of human/resource dimensions
• Offline model runs• Use of projections and scenarios• Qualitative characterizations of the future
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Climate Change Planning
Walsh & Chapman:
PRISM downscaled multi-model projections of temperature and precipitation for AK under various scenarios of Greenhouse Gas emissions
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Problems with this approach
• Creates a strong disconnect between the physical modeling community and the climate impacts community
• Makes it more difficult to provide decision support to stakeholders
• Could be missing important feedbacks between human agents and the climate system
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Approaches to CCIAV
IPCC, 2007
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Integrated Assessment
Definition: any model which combines scientific and socio-economic aspects of climate change primarily for the purpose of assessing policy options for climate change control (Kelly & Kolstad, 1998)
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Integrated Assessment Modeling
McGuffie & Henderson-Sellers, 2005
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Integrated Assessment Models
McGuffie & Henderson-Sellers, 2005
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Characterizing the Future
IPCC, 2007
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Proposal:
Code Human System Modules directly into a new Arctic System Model to make it truly ‘next generation’ and ‘system’
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Example of Human System Module
Cherry
Goal is to be model independent; work with CCSM and other models/ couplers
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Some Human Dimensions in the Arctic :
• Oil and Gas Recovery (& spill transport)• Freshwater Supply• Renewable Energy (wind, hydro, geo)• Commercial, Subsistence, & Sport Fishing• Infrastructure• Coastal Erosion• Subsistence Harvest of Furbearers, Caribou• Marine Transport
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Decision-Support
• What is that?• Turban defines it as "an interactive, flexible,
and adaptable computer-based information system, especially developed for supporting the solution of a non-structured management problem for improved decision making. It utilizes data, provides an easy-to-use interface, and allows for the decision maker's own insights.” (Wikipedia)
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https://rsgis.crrel.usace.army.mil/aedis/
Example of Climate-Related Decision Support
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Goals of a Pilot Project
• Create one or more model-independent modules for socio-economic decision-making
• Test in AK, but should have international applications at least across pan-Arctic
• Create cutting edge model, i.e. one that includes human dimension directly
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Interactions between Module components/Climate model
• Need not occur at every model time step
• One or two way coupling may be appropriate depending on the system
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BSIERPFEAST Higher trophic
level model
NPZ-B-DLower trophic
level
ROMSPhysical
Oceanography
Economic/ecological model
Climate scenarios
BSIERP Vertically Integrated models
Nest
ed m
odelsB
EST
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Infrastructure
Impact of Climate Change on Infrastructure study done for Alaska by Peter Larsen and collaborators
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Flow Chart of Model Processes
Climate Projections
NCARUAF GI
Import_Wx_UAF_NCAR_10_10_06.sas
$
Depreciator_10_10_06b.sas
Graphs Infrastructure Type Replacement Cost Units Baseline Useful Life (years)
Agriculture N/A N/A N/AAirport 5,664,812$ Whole 10Bridges 10,000$ Per foot 40Courts 16,150,618$ Whole 40Defense 305,441$ Whole 40Emergency Services 467,110$ Whole 20Energy 31,570$ Whole 30Grid 100,000$ Per mile 15Harbor 162,050$ Whole 30Hospital 44,772,750$ Whole 40Law Enforcement 3,917,245$ Whole 30Misc. Building (govt) 1,030,578$ Whole 30Misc. Building (health) 1,631,781$ Whole 30Pipeline 32,225,000$ Per mile 30Railroad 2,795,717$ Per mile 30Roads 3,000,000$ Per mile 10School 2,486,167$ Whole 40Sewer 30,000,000$ Whole 20Telecommunications 299,576$ Whole 10Telephone Line 50,000$ Per mile 15Water 5,000,000$ Whole 20
Tables
Depr.Matrix
Denali
DRM
DCCED
DNR
Others
APID
Infrastructure_DB_09_28_06.sas
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ISER Public Infrastructure Study
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Wind Farm Parameterization for WRFAdams & Keith
Modification of the MYJ PBL scheme
Similar work being done commercially by 3TIER, AER, others
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MMS-WRF winds 1
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MMS-WRF winds 2
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MMS-WRF winds 3
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MMS-WRF winds 4
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Hydropower AEA
AEA Energy Atlas, 2007
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Ship track
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Readiness? If we don’t start to integrate these models they may never
become ready…
Data management may be the biggest challenge
May need to modify existing couplers/design a human dimension standard
May need to design ‘community’ decision support tool
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Readiness:
• Oil and Gas Recovery (& spill transport)• Freshwater Supply• Renewable Energy (wind, hydro, geo)• Commercial, Subsistence & Sport Fishing• Infrastructure• Coastal Erosion• Subsistence Harvest of Furbearers, Caribou• Marine Transport (& emissions)
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A few of the many challenges
• Data acquisition and management (international)
• Models appropriate for the pan-Arctic domain
• Decision support interface
• Representing uncertainty quantitatively (including inter-temporal discount rate)
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Why code human systems directly into models?
• There are (nearly) appropriate existing models
• We have the computing resources
• Bridges the gaps between physical system and human dimension
• It’s interesting work at the frontiers of research!!!
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Thanks
?
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Communicating uncertainty
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New Scientific Methodology?
Funtowicz & Ravetz, in Ecological Economics, 1991
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Arctic human dimensions
• Oil and Gas Module (spill transport)
• Rural Resilience (wind power potential)
• Coastal Erosion (evolving coastline)
• Freshwater (hydropower, water supply)
• Marine Fisheries (Bering ecosystem)
• Marine Transport (ice cover trajectories)
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Ammonium
Euphausiids
Neocalanus
SmallPhytoplankton
Detritus
Smallmicrozooplankton
Largemicrozooplankton
Nitrate
LargePhytoplankton
Pseudocalanus
Iron
14 component ModelNPZD-Benthos
PredationLosses
BenthosBenthicInfauna
Benthic Detritus
BSIERPLower Trophic Level
Ecosystem Model