DESIGN AND PROPOSAL OF SOLAR PANEL INTEGRATION IN …
Transcript of DESIGN AND PROPOSAL OF SOLAR PANEL INTEGRATION IN …
Model Analysis Conclusions & Future Work
Sensitivity Analysis
Context Analysis
Solar Energy Gap
Now: Traditional electricity distribution with net metering
Risk of NOVEC failing to identify the effects solar energy in their system
Risk of NOVEC failing to identify if changes in the current business model
Potential: Solar Energy Integration to utility company customers
Method of Analysis
Business Model Results
Problem and Need Statement
Problem StatementAs solar penetration levels rise in Virginia, NOVEC will begin to lose
revenue from the loss of traditional energy being distributed.
Need Statement There is a need to analyze the effects of increasing amounts of solar
energy users in NOVEC’s distribution network on their current business
model. Furthermore, there is a need to identify the feasibility of new
business models that incorporate solar energy into their distribution network.
How does Solar effect NOVEC and it’s CustomersPotential Solar Outputs for a Average and Optimal Homes
Stakeholder Analysis
Do Nothing
(NOVEC maintains their current
power distribution system)
OR
Current Environment in Virginia
Solar Penetration in Virginia is currently at 0.1% for Residential solar
• On the Rise
Average cost of Solar is estimated to be $0.12 cents per kWh
• On the Decline
Average cost of Electricity for NOVEC Residence is $0.13 per kWh
• On the Rise
• Esri ArcGIS 10.4
• Combined Loudoun County
(2016) Vector data and raster
images with NOVEC service
regions and address points
• Solar Factors: Surface Area of
Roof, Shading, Weather/Time
of Year, Radiation in Region,
Angle/Slope
Geospatial Information System Model
• Image of Loudoun County
(2016)
• ~1600 Rooftops analyzed in
model (.1% of Serviced Homes)
Model Information
Data in GIS
DESIGN AND PROPOSAL OF SOLAR PANEL INTEGRATION IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA POWER
DISTRIBUTION
Michael Ham, Billy Mudd, Ramona Rubalcava, Shakib Vafaei
System Engineering & Operations Research at George Mason University
Sponsored by: Center for Air Transportation Systems Research (CATSR)
• Homes that go Solar will want
maximum benefit
Total Solar Produced = 9200
kWh/year
Total % of Energy by Solar = 69%
Net metered Energy = 970 kWh/year
Net Metering: April, May, June
Optimal NOVEC Homes (~6%-10%)
Figure Solar Potential Image in July
• Average Home offsets about 50% of energy
Optimal Customer Savings
as of 2018 over 20 Yrs.
Customer Savings as of 2023
Conservative Solar Growth Effects on
NOVEC
Aggressive Solar Growth Effects on NOVEC
Optimal Home has 14 Yr. ROI with a $10,000 Profit
Optimal Home has 10 Yr. ROI with $27,000 Profit
Sensitivity of Cost Factors onto NOVEC & Customers
• Most Important Factors are
Electricity, Solar Produced by
roof, and Solar Panel Costs
• Based on a small survey, NOVEC
customers want to profit ~$10k
over 20 years to go solar
• ~10% of homes reach this criteria
• Be careful when electricity prices
reach $0.18 & Solar Production
for homes reaches ~9200 kWh
yearly
Final Results and Recommendations• At 1% Solar Penetration NOVEC’s current plan will lead to a net loss of $31million
• At 15% Solar Penetration NOVEC’s current plan will lead to a net loss of $570million
• Selling Solar panels (2) can offset 45-55% of these losses
• NOVEC as of NOW should continue to NOT sell solar energy, but be prepared to
increase electricity costs as solar penetration rises
• Be Prepared to Re-evaluate in 5 years with government changes
• NOVEC should survey current customers about when they would switch to solar
Net Loss for NOVEC