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Department of Economics Biofuel Markets and Mandates MID-CO Winter Conference 2009 Ames, Iowa...
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Department of Economics Biofuel Markets and Mandates MID-CO Winter Conference 2009 Ames, Iowa January 29, 2009 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist [email protected] 515-294-9911
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Department of Economics Ethanol Production Jan. – Oct Sources: Renewable Fuels Association, Energy Information Administration
Transcript of Department of Economics Biofuel Markets and Mandates MID-CO Winter Conference 2009 Ames, Iowa...
Department of Economics
Biofuel Markets and Mandates
MID-CO Winter Conference 2009Ames, Iowa
January 29, 2009
Chad HartAssistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist
Department of Economics
Crude Oil Prices
Source: Energy Information Administration
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140
$ pe
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Department of Economics
Ethanol Production
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Jan. – Oct. 2008
Sources: Renewable Fuels Association, Energy Information Administration
Department of Economics
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1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
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Biodiesel ProductionJan. – Sept. 2008
Sources: National Biodiesel Board, Energy Information Administration
Department of Economics
Ethanol Margins
Source: ISU, CARD
Department of Economics
Projected Ethanol Margins
Source: ISU, CARD
Department of Economics
Biodiesel Margins
Source: ISU, CARD
Department of Economics
Projected Biodiesel Margins
Source: ISU, CARD
Department of Economics
Projected Crude Oil Prices
Source: NYMEX
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Mar.2009
Dec.2009
Dec.2010
Dec.2011
Dec.2012
Dec.2013
Dec.2014
Dec.2015
Dec.2016
$ pe
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Department of Economics
Government Policies for BiofuelsEthanolAd valorem tariff of 2.5%Import duty of $0.54 per gallonVolumetric Ethanol Excise Tax Credit (VEETC)
$0.45 per gallon starting in 2009
BiodieselBiodiesel Mixture Excise Tax Credit
$1.00/0.50 per gallon
CellulosicCellulosic Biofuel Producer Tax Credit
$1.01 per gallon
Department of Economics
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2009
2010
2011
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2015
2016
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Bill
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Conventional Biofuels Cellulosic Biofuels
Biodiesel Additional Advanced Biofuels
Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS)
60% GHG Emission Reduction
50% GHG Emission Reduction
20% GHG Emission ReductionIf construction started after Dec. 2007
Department of Economics
Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS)
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2009 2010 2011
Billi
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Additional Advanced Biofuels BiodieselCellulosic Biofuels Conventional Biofuels
CropYear
Billion Bushels
2008 3.572009 4.112010 4.43
Department of Economics
U.S. Blended Motor Gasoline Consumption
Source: Energy Information Administration
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145
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Actual Feb. Proj. July Proj. Dec. Proj.
Department of Economics
Fuel Prices
Source: Nebraska Energy Office
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0.50
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1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
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$ pe
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Ethanol Gasoline
Rack prices in Omaha
Department of Economics
Fuel Futures Prices
Sources: NYMEX and CBOT
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1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
$ pe
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Ethanol Gasoline
Department of Economics
Thank you for your time!
Any questions?
My web site:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/faculty/hart/
Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/
