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Transcript of Demographics And Higher Education In Minnesota Presentation to Citizens League Tom Gillaspy, State...
Demographics And Higher Education In Minnesota
Presentation to Citizens League
Tom Gillaspy, State DemographerMn Dept of Administration
May 2004
Minnesota Ranks Highly In Education Attainment
• Ranks 11th highest in percent age 25 and older with at least a bachelors degree
• Ranks 2nd lowest in percent age 25 and older with less than high school diploma
• Educational attainment improved substantially in the 90s
• Part of the reason for Minnesota’s high rank is the state’s low proportion of minority people
• Migration also added people with levels of education attainment
Educational Attainment Rises
24.8%
20.3%17.6%
21.8%19.6%
24.4%
12.1%
27.4%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
US LessThan High
School
USBachelorsDegree or
More
Mn LessThan High
School
MnBachelorsDegree or
More
Per
cen
t O
f P
op
ula
tio
n 2
5+
1990
2000
Minnesota Education Attainment Rose Sharply In The 90s
-22.0%
-0.1%
44.1%
2.5%
40.3%
51.8%
-40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60%
Less Than HighSchool
High School
Some College
Associate Degree
Bachelor's Degree
Graduate or Prof Degree
Percent Change 90-00 In Population 25+
2000 Census
Net Migration To Minnesota By Educational Attainment For People Age 25 And Older
16,400
10,000
9,500
14,900
9,700
02,000
4,0006,000
8,00010,000
12,00014,000
16,00018,000
20,000
Less than HighSchool
High School
Some College
Bachelors Degree
Advanced Degree
2000 Census PUMS 5%
Increased DiversityWill Affect Higher Education
Minnesota’s High Rank Partially Due To Lack Of Diversity
• Minnesota’s minority population is growing rapidly, especially in younger ages
• One reason for Minnesota’s high rank in education attainment is its lack of racial and ethnic diversity
• A major challenge facing Minnesota higher education is increasing participation of minority students
Growth In Minority Population Accounted For More Than 100% Of Minnesota’s
Increase In 18-24 Year Olds 1990-2000
442,809
31,916
470,434
72,220
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
Total Minority
1990
2000
1990 & 2000 Census
Non-English Speaking Students: While Minneapolis and St. Paul have the largest numbers, some
smaller districts also have substantial proportions
32.8%27.7%27.9%
29.7%25.1%25.8%26.2%
40.9%26.9%
38.5%9.3%
8.8%8.0%
7.0%3.0%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Brooklyn CenterButterfield
MadeliaMinneapolis
Mountain LakePelican Rapids
St. JamesSt. Paul
Sleepy EyeWorthington
State 03-04State 02-03State 01-02State 00-01State 93-94
Percent of Students in 2003-04
Source: Mn Dept of Education data
Education Attainment Population 25 To 34
16.1%
27.5%
7.6%
34.5%
11.7%
31.7%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
% less thanHigh School
% Bachelorsor more
MnStd to US MinorityPopulation
Mn
US
2000 Census
Age 25 to 34 Percent With Bachelors Degree or More
34.5%
12.9%
36.7%
15.7%
7.2%
46.1%
27.5%
10.4%
32.5%
15.3%
10.7%
55.0%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Total
Latino
White Not Hisp
Black, Not Hisp
Am Indian, Not Hisp
Asian, Not Hisp
United States
Minnesota
2000 Census
Age 25 to 34 Percent With Less Than High School Diploma
7.6%
42.2%
4.3%
18.6%
22.6%
15.9%
16.1%
43.6%
9.0%
18.7%
20.6%
10.2%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Total
Latino
White Not Hisp
Black, Not Hisp
Am Indian, Not Hisp
Asian, Not Hisp
United States
Minnesota
2000 Census
Percent Of Population 18 To 24 Enrolled In Higher Education
38%
22%
21%
41%
13%
36%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%
White
Black
American Indian
Asian
Latino
Total
Percent Enrolled In Higher Education2000 Census PUMS 5%
Distribution Of The PopulationWill Influence The Delivery
Of Education Services
New Suburbs Are Receiving Most Of The Growth
• Minnesota is growing faster than its neighboring states
• Most growth is in the growth donut around the Twin Cities
• Many areas of rural Minnesota have experienced long term population loss and aging
• Political power in the legislature is increasingly reflecting the shifts
Lost Population
Gained Population
Population Change 1920 To 2000Source U.S. Census
State: +63,555
-2,959 to -60 -60 to 300 300 to 9,343
Projected change in population 15 to 242000 to 2010
Higher Education Critical To Future Economic Growth
The Level of Future Economic Growth Will Depend Ever More On A Highly Productive
Labor Force
• Slower growth of the labor force will place more importance on increasing per worker productivity
• Minnesota’s labor force growth will depend largely on continued activity of older workers and migration to the state
• Training of young Minnesotan’s, retraining of older workers and training and certifications of migrants will be key roles of education
Total Annual Earnings, Currently Employed Minnesotans Age 25 to 54
$20,000
$26,000
$30,000
$38,000
$46,000
$57,000
$0
$10,
000
$20,
000
$30,
000
$40,
000
$50,
000
$60,
000
$70,
000
$80,
000
Less Than HighSchool
High School Diploma
Some College
Bachelors Degree
Masters Degree
Advanced Degree
2000 Census PUMS 5%
Projections for 2010—Labor Force
• Labor force will increase to a range of 2.9 mil and 3.1 mil, increases of between 7% and 16%.
• Uncertainty about labor force growth results from uncertainty about migration and labor force participation, especially over 60.
• Most growth will be among 45 to 64 (increase of 32% to 39%). Age 24 to 44 will see a decline as much as 10%.
Projected Labor Force--2003
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
3500000
4000000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Census
Series A
Series B
Series C
Series D
State Demographer projections
Higher Education Workforce Is Also Aging
Higher Education Workforce Is Also Aging
• Corresponds to overall aging of the workforce and especially the government workforce
• Many instructors, administrators, and other workers are in their 40s and 50s
• Will higher education also face a retirement boom in the next decade?
Minnesota Post Secondary Teachers
2300
3000
25002700
3100 3000 2900
2200
1700
1100800
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Under25
25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70+
Age Group
2000 Census PUMS 5%
Median Age Of Minnesota Post Secondary Teachers
45
36
45
43
0 10 20 30 40 50
Private Not-for-Profit
Private For-Profit
State Government
Total
2000 Census, PUMS 5%
Trends In College AgePopulation And Enrollment
Aging Population And Enrollments
• Traditional college age population will increase this decade then level off
• K-12 enrollments have already begun to decline
• Extrapolated future enrollment shows little change over the next 25 years
• Most future growth will be in middle-aged to older population likely changing the ordering of budget and society priorities
Minnesota Population Age 18-24
297,071 284,222
433,382
558,498
442,809470,434
535,332507,083
529,325
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Census & State Demographer projection
Minnesota Public School Enrollments Have Peaked: Declines Not Expected To Be
Sharp
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Projections by MnDCFL
Though People Of Many Ages Groups Are Enrolled In Higher Ed, Most Are 18 to 24
35.8%
13.4%
7.8%4.8% 3.9% 3.1% 2.3%
0.9% 0.6% 0.4% 0.3%0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
18-2
4
25-2
9
30-3
4
35-3
9
40-4
4
45-4
9
50-5
4
55-5
9
60-6
4
65-6
970
+
Age
Pe
rce
nt
En
roll
ed
In
Hig
he
r E
du
ca
tio
n
Census 2000 PUMS 5%
Interstate Migration Also Affects Enrollments
45,169
15,542
46,441
10,263
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000
CollegeUndergrad
Grad/Prof
Out Mig
In Mig
2000 Census PUMS 5%
Extrapolated Higher Education Enrollment For Minnesota
299,000321,000 329,000 329,000 326,000 328,000 335,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Extrapolated from 2000 Census enrollment by 5 year age group to state demographer projections
Impact Of Aging On Higher Education
Aging Will Have A Profound Impact On Society
• Most future growth will be in middle-aged to older population
• Overwhelming growth in the older population will likely change the order of budget and society priorities
• Aging also offers some opportunities for higher education—training for new careers, training and certifying volunteers, learning for fun
Projected Change 2000 to 2030 By Age Group In Minnesota
13 10.1 6.7 5.115.9 18.5
10.80.4 1.6
1220.1
47.9
89.7
134.9130.6
111
99.590.8
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
0-4 5-9 10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
Age Group
Pe
rce
nt
Ch
an
ge
Source: State Demographer projection
After 2010, Most Population Growth In Minnesota Will Be In People Age 65+
26%23%
9%16%
60%
95%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1970-80 1980-90 1990-00 2000-10 2010-20 2020-30
Ra
tio
Ch
an
g 6
5+
to
To
tal
Po
pu
lati
on
State Demographer projection