Demographic Fear in Northern Ireland Politics, Society and Space Owen McEldowney David McNair Stuart...

Demographic Fear in Northern Ireland

Politics, Society and Space Owen McEldowneyOwen McEldowneyDavid McNairDavid McNairStuart LaveryStuart LaveryCentre for Spatial and Territorial Analysis and Research (C-STAR) Centre for Spatial and Territorial Analysis and Research (C-STAR) School of GeographySchool of GeographyQueen's University BelfastQueen's University BelfastBelfast BT7 1NNBelfast BT7 1NN

[email protected]@qub.ac.uk [email protected]@[email protected]@qub.ac.uk

Unionist fear of Unionist fear of census decline – census decline –

the release of the the release of the 2001 Northern 2001 Northern Ireland census Ireland census

resultsresults

““There is inescapable evidence There is inescapable evidence that there has been a change," that there has been a change,"

““This will concretise the view that This will concretise the view that for nationalists and republicans for nationalists and republicans this is the end phase. There is a this is the end phase. There is a majority emerging.”majority emerging.”

Guardian,Guardian, April 12, 2001 ‘Collapse of Ulster deal feared: Sinn Fein seeks to combat anti-agreement unionists April 12, 2001 ‘Collapse of Ulster deal feared: Sinn Fein seeks to combat anti-agreement unionists

"The countdown scenario is "The countdown scenario is emerging"emerging"

Guardian,Guardian, April 12, 2001 ‘Collapse of Ulster deal feared: Sinn Fein seeks to combat anti-agreement April 12, 2001 ‘Collapse of Ulster deal feared: Sinn Fein seeks to combat anti-agreement unionistsunionists

[[Republicans feel] "a sense of Republicans feel] "a sense of destiny".destiny".

Guardian, Guardian, April 12, 2001 ‘No agreement: But the future in Ulster need not be bleak’April 12, 2001 ‘No agreement: But the future in Ulster need not be bleak’

““There There is no nationalist majorityis no nationalist majority in Northern in Northern Ireland, nor is there any likelihood of one. The Ireland, nor is there any likelihood of one. The Belfast Agreement represents a transition to a Belfast Agreement represents a transition to a normal peaceful society, not to a United Ireland.normal peaceful society, not to a United Ireland.

“……“…….there is no dynamic within the Belfast .there is no dynamic within the Belfast Agreement towards Irish unity, nor does any Agreement towards Irish unity, nor does any such desire exist in Northern Ireland.”such desire exist in Northern Ireland.”

Belfast News Letter, Belfast News Letter, April 13, 2001, Friday ‘REALITY DAWNING ON SF – TRIMBLE April 13, 2001, Friday ‘REALITY DAWNING ON SF – TRIMBLE 'AGREEMENT DOES NOT PROVIDE THE DYNAMIC FOR UNITY''AGREEMENT DOES NOT PROVIDE THE DYNAMIC FOR UNITY'

David McKittrick, HeadlinesDavid McKittrick, Headlines, , Independent,Independent, February 11 2002 February 11 2002

‘‘Unionists filled with foreboding Unionists filled with foreboding at loss of influence’at loss of influence’

‘‘Protestants losing majority in Protestants losing majority in Northern Ireland’Northern Ireland’

‘‘THE PROTESTANT majority in Northern THE PROTESTANT majority in Northern Ireland, the mainstay of the state for eight Ireland, the mainstay of the state for eight decades, may have almost disappeared, decades, may have almost disappeared, demographic experts believe.’demographic experts believe.’

““CATHOLIC MAJORITY' SPARKS UNITY CALL” CATHOLIC MAJORITY' SPARKS UNITY CALL” Belfast News Letter Belfast News Letter December 16, 2002, Tuesday December 16, 2002, Tuesday

ULSTER Unionist MP ULSTER Unionist MP Jeffrey DonaldsonJeffrey Donaldson has has called for unionist unity called for unionist unity as the prospect of a as the prospect of a Catholic majority voting for an all-Ireland Catholic majority voting for an all-Ireland threatens to become a realitythreatens to become a reality..

The anti-Agreement Assembly member was The anti-Agreement Assembly member was reacting to a census reacting to a census which will this week reveal which will this week reveal that the Protestant population has fallen below 50 that the Protestant population has fallen below 50 per cent for the first time in the history of the per cent for the first time in the history of the statestate..

"Nationalists can't have it both ways."Nationalists can't have it both ways.

"They can't claim the consent of the "They can't claim the consent of the majority isn't sufficient for a system of majority isn't sufficient for a system of government and on the other hand claim government and on the other hand claim that massive constitutional change would that massive constitutional change would only require the consent of an overall only require the consent of an overall majority "majority "

December 16, 2002 December 16, 2002 Irish NewsIrish News ‘A united Ireland could be a reality’’ ‘A united Ireland could be a reality’’

"What would be needed would be a majority "What would be needed would be a majority within each community, because that has within each community, because that has been the only agreed way of making any been the only agreed way of making any governmental decision within Northern governmental decision within Northern Ireland.Ireland.

"Any practical deal has had to be cross-"Any practical deal has had to be cross-community because it must be something community because it must be something that does last, and not just a decision for one that does last, and not just a decision for one year which could be reversed the next year."year which could be reversed the next year."

Irish News,Irish News, December 16, 2002, ‘A united Ireland could be a reality’ December 16, 2002, ‘A united Ireland could be a reality’

"I believe the "I believe the censuscensus will confirm the pro- will confirm the pro-union population is shrinking to the extent union population is shrinking to the extent that for the first time it will represent less that for the first time it will represent less than 50%.than 50%.

"It is understandable that unionists are "It is understandable that unionists are nervous and unsure about the futurenervous and unsure about the future given the demographic trend, but refusal given the demographic trend, but refusal to face change will not prevent it."to face change will not prevent it."

Belfast Telegraph December 16, 2002 Protestants drop below 50%: SF claim Belfast Telegraph December 16, 2002 Protestants drop below 50%: SF claim [my italics][my italics]

Sunday Tribune,Sunday Tribune, 15 December 2002, Susan McKay ‘Northern State of 15 December 2002, Susan McKay ‘Northern State of Confusion’Confusion’

““A Nationalist Party could easily emerge as A Nationalist Party could easily emerge as the largest party after the scheduled the largest party after the scheduled assembly elections”assembly elections”

““Imagine if Gerry Adams was swaggering Imagine if Gerry Adams was swaggering around New York as the leading politician around New York as the leading politician in Northern Ireland? Do you think I am in Northern Ireland? Do you think I am scaremongering? Believe me I am not.”scaremongering? Believe me I am not.”

[United Ireland is] “not even a remote [United Ireland is] “not even a remote possibility”.possibility”.

““The figures are much better than many The figures are much better than many people were predicting but I don't like to people were predicting but I don't like to rely on some sort of sectarian head rely on some sort of sectarian head count”count”

‘‘Republican hopes dashed after census say unionists’ December 20, 2002 Republican hopes dashed after census say unionists’ December 20, 2002 Irish NewsIrish News

““Catholic share of the population [will] Catholic share of the population [will] never reach 50 per cent and certainly not never reach 50 per cent and certainly not in the next 20 to 30 years.” (paraphrased)in the next 20 to 30 years.” (paraphrased)

““The challenge therefore for nationalism The challenge therefore for nationalism and republicanism is to stop dreaming and republicanism is to stop dreaming that they can either that they can either breed or bomb breed or bomb Northern Ireland out of the UKNorthern Ireland out of the UK and start and start to genuinely cooperate with unionists"to genuinely cooperate with unionists"

‘‘Bombed Out, Blown Out Bombed Out, Blown Out and Bred Out!’and Bred Out!’

DUP assembly member Edwin Poots said one of DUP assembly member Edwin Poots said one of the major points raised by the figures was the the major points raised by the figures was the relatively high number of young Protestants relatively high number of young Protestants leaving to study or work in England and leaving to study or work in England and Scotland.Scotland.

"It is the responsibility of universities and "It is the responsibility of universities and employers to provide career opportunities to employers to provide career opportunities to retain these young Protestants in Northern retain these young Protestants in Northern Ireland and for politicians to address the Ireland and for politicians to address the perceived chill factor in existence at present”perceived chill factor in existence at present”

December 20, 2002, December 20, 2002, Irish NewsIrish News

Unionist fear of the Unionist fear of the electionelection

% Protestant Population and % Unionist Seats by Constituency

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Bel

fast

Wes

t

Foyl

e

Wes

t Tyr

one

Dow

n S

outh

New

ry/A

rmag

h

Mid

Uls

ter

Ferm

anag

h S

Tyro

ne

Bel

fast

Nor

th

Bel

fast

Sou

th

Upp

er B

ann

Der

ry E

ast

Ant

rim

Sou

th

Ant

rim

Nor

th

Laga

n V

alle

y

Ant

rim

Eas

t

Str

angf

ord

Dow

n N

orth

Bel

fast

Eas

t

%Protestant Population Census 2001 % Unionist Seats 2003 Assembly Election

% Catholic Population % Nationalist Seats by Constituency

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Bel

fast

e

Dow

n N

Stra

ngfo

rd

Ant

rim E

Laga

n V

alle

y

Ant

rim N

Ant

rim S

Der

ry E

Bel

fast

s

U B

ann

Bel

fast

n

Ferm

S T

yron

e

Mid

Uls

ter

Dow

n S

New

ry/A

rmag

h

W T

yron

e

Foyl

e

Bel

fast

w

%Catholic Population Census 2001 % Nationalist Seats 2003

1998 Assembly Election1998 Assembly ElectionSF

SDLP

Non-AlignedUUP

DUP

Other Un

2003 Assembly Election2003 Assembly Election

SF

SDLP

Non-AlignedUUP

DUP

Other Un

Unionist fear of Unionist fear of the referendumthe referendum

1998 Good Friday 1998 Good Friday AgreementAgreement

‘‘CONSTITUTIONAL ISSUES’, ANNEX A, SECTION 1CONSTITUTIONAL ISSUES’, ANNEX A, SECTION 1

DRAFT CLAUSES/SCHEDULES FOR INCORPORATION IN DRAFT CLAUSES/SCHEDULES FOR INCORPORATION IN BRITISH LEGISLATIONBRITISH LEGISLATION

1. (1) It is hereby declared that Northern Ireland in its 1. (1) It is hereby declared that Northern Ireland in its entirety remains part of the United Kingdom entirety remains part of the United Kingdom and shall and shall not cease to be so without the consent of a majority not cease to be so without the consent of a majority of the people of Northern Ireland voting in a pollof the people of Northern Ireland voting in a poll held held for the purposes of this section [..].for the purposes of this section [..].(2) But (2) But if the wish expressed by a majority in such a if the wish expressed by a majority in such a poll is that Northern Ireland should cease to be part poll is that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland, the Secretary of State shall lay before Ireland, the Secretary of State shall lay before Parliament such proposals to give effect to that wishParliament such proposals to give effect to that wish as may be agreed between Her Majesty’s Government in as may be agreed between Her Majesty’s Government in the United Kingdom and the Government of Ireland.the United Kingdom and the Government of Ireland.

Good Friday AgreementGood Friday Agreement[…][…]SCHEDULE 1SCHEDULE 1POLLS FOR THE PURPOSE OF SECTION 1POLLS FOR THE PURPOSE OF SECTION 1

1. The Secretary of State may by order direct the 1. The Secretary of State may by order direct the holding of a poll for the purposes of section 1 on a holding of a poll for the purposes of section 1 on a date specified in the order.date specified in the order.

2. [..]the Secretary of State shall [do so] [..].. if at any 2. [..]the Secretary of State shall [do so] [..].. if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland.form part of a united Ireland.

3. The Secretary of State shall not make an order 3. The Secretary of State shall not make an order under paragraph 1 earlier than seven years after the under paragraph 1 earlier than seven years after the holding of a previous poll under this Schedule.holding of a previous poll under this Schedule.

Whilst unionists, the majority, could not pass a Whilst unionists, the majority, could not pass a motion banning hare coursing, motion banning hare coursing, if nationalists ever if nationalists ever became the majority, a vote of fifty percent plus became the majority, a vote of fifty percent plus one could lead Northern Ireland into a united one could lead Northern Ireland into a united IrelandIreland. .

This is a ludicrous arrangement, to which the UUP This is a ludicrous arrangement, to which the UUP agreed. It is only because there does not appear to agreed. It is only because there does not appear to be the slightest chance of a majority of people in be the slightest chance of a majority of people in Northern Ireland supporting a united Ireland that Northern Ireland supporting a united Ireland that this issue is not of greater this issue is not of greater immediate importanceimmediate importance. It . It does however reflect an inept negotiating strategy does however reflect an inept negotiating strategy by the UUP. An intelligent negotiator would be by the UUP. An intelligent negotiator would be guarding for the futureguarding for the future as well as the present. as well as the present.

DUP Policy 2004 (after winning the election)

2003 Life and Times Survey Do you think the long-term policy for Northern Ireland should be for it ...

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

...to remain part of the UnitedKingdom

Or, to reunify w ith the rest ofIreland?

(Independent state)

No religion

Protestant

Catholic

2003 Life and Times Survey Protestant Unionists :'If the majority of people in Northern Ireland ever voted to become part of a United

Ireland do you think you..' Catholic nationalists: If they never did….

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

...w ould f ind this almostimpossible to accept

...w ould not like it, but couldlive w ith it if you had to

..w ould happily accept thew ishes of the majority?

(don't know )

Catholic Nationalist

Protestant unionist

2003 Life and Times Survey 'At any time in the next 20 years, do you think it is likely or unlikely that there will be a United Ireland?'

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Very likely Quite likely (Even chance) Quite unlikely Very unlikely (Don't know )

Catholic

Protestant

Demographic Fear Demographic Fear at community levelat community level

Demographic Fear at Demographic Fear at community levelcommunity level

Fear of cultural declineFear of cultural decline Fear of local territorial contractionFear of local territorial contraction Fear of Demographic / Socio-Fear of Demographic / Socio-

economic declineeconomic decline

Fear of cultural decline Fear of cultural decline (1)(1)

Source: http://www.irishnews.com

Fear of cultural decline Fear of cultural decline (2)(2)

““Its not just threat from Catholic Its not just threat from Catholic neighbours. They see in the protestant neighbours. They see in the protestant community something that they don’t community something that they don’t understand. It is inherently threatening. It understand. It is inherently threatening. It involves a lot of paramilitary domination involves a lot of paramilitary domination and buying into that philosophy of life, and buying into that philosophy of life, and a lot of the members of the and a lot of the members of the congregation here are not prepared to do congregation here are not prepared to do that.”that.”

Protestant Minister – West BelfastProtestant Minister – West Belfast

Fear of local territorial Fear of local territorial contraction (1)contraction (1)

Source: Orange Standard (Publication of the Orange Order)


““we’ve seen it here. The Catholics have we’ve seen it here. The Catholics have completely overtook a lot of what was ours completely overtook a lot of what was ours here in Suffolk. I’ve seen it, and we are such a here in Suffolk. I’ve seen it, and we are such a small tiny wee community surrounded by small tiny wee community surrounded by Catholics. You can’t walk in and out of this Catholics. You can’t walk in and out of this estate. Whenever I came here at 5 year old, we estate. Whenever I came here at 5 year old, we could walk away up the top near Black could walk away up the top near Black Mountain and you were safe. There was no Mountain and you were safe. There was no Catholics there. You cant do that now. I don’t Catholics there. You cant do that now. I don’t know where this all came from and it’s got to know where this all came from and it’s got to be breeding… be breeding…

Protestant Female Resident – Suffolk – West BelfastProtestant Female Resident – Suffolk – West Belfast


Source: Ulster Review, Summer 2003Source: “Cluan Place – Still British the cry is no surrender” – The Union Jack Shop


Source: East Belfast Observer 13 March 2004

Fear of Demographic / Fear of Demographic / Socio-economic decline (1)Socio-economic decline (1)

““This is an increasingly elderly area because This is an increasingly elderly area because the Protestant ethos of the younger people is the Protestant ethos of the younger people is up and out. Those who stay around are those up and out. Those who stay around are those who are unable to [leave] economically. who are unable to [leave] economically. Fundamentally it’s because of an Fundamentally it’s because of an individualistic bent within Protestantism in individualistic bent within Protestantism in general, whereas there’s much more of a general, whereas there’s much more of a communitarian philosophy within the communitarian philosophy within the Catholic community...Protestant areas are Catholic community...Protestant areas are left quite disempowered in terms of human left quite disempowered in terms of human resources.” resources.”

Protestant Minister – West BelfastProtestant Minister – West Belfast

Fear of Demographic / Fear of Demographic / Socio-economic decline (2)Socio-economic decline (2)““If you were a Catholic, you got it slapped round If you were a Catholic, you got it slapped round your ears –get educated – the only way out of here your ears –get educated – the only way out of here is to get educated. Working class Protestants on the is to get educated. Working class Protestants on the other hand didn’t have to worry about getting other hand didn’t have to worry about getting educated – you’d get an apprenticeship…Protestant educated – you’d get an apprenticeship…Protestant working class children are loosing out. With the working class children are loosing out. With the demise of the Shipyard, shipbuilding and all that…demise of the Shipyard, shipbuilding and all that…Catholics got educated and went into other spheres Catholics got educated and went into other spheres of work like law, education, community, public of work like law, education, community, public sector. Protestants didn’t go for that cause they sector. Protestants didn’t go for that cause they seen their area as industry. But now the industry seen their area as industry. But now the industry has gone down, there's a void there.” has gone down, there's a void there.”

Trade Union RepresentativeTrade Union Representative


Source: The Independent 3.5.2004

Demographic Fear in Northern Ireland Politics, Society and Space Owen McEldowney David McNair Stuart...

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