Population Aging and the Three Demographic Dividends in Asia
Demographic Dividends and National Transfer Accounts
description
Transcript of Demographic Dividends and National Transfer Accounts
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August 22, 2006 Andrew Mason
Demographic Dividends and National Transfer Accounts
Andrew Mason
University of Hawaii at Manoa
East-West Center
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August 22, 2006 Andrew Mason
The Issues
• How will changes in age structure over the demographic transition affect the macro economy?
• How are macroeconomic outcomes influenced by– the economic lifecycle– the economic support system
• What policies should be pursued?
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August 22, 2006 Andrew Mason
Results
• Changes in population age structure have important implications for economic performance.
• Population aging may lead to substantial increases in income and wealth.
• Avoiding excessive reliance on public and familial transfer programs is critical.
• Large regional shifts in the size of Asia-Pacific economies seems highly likely.
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August 22, 2006 Andrew Mason
Outline
I. The Consumption IdentityII. The Support RatioIII. The first demographic dividend – the
benefit of a population concentrated at the working ages
IV. The second demographic dividend – the benefit of a population concentrated at old ages
V. Concluding remarks
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August 22, 2006 Andrew Mason
I. The Consumption Identity
Consumption per effective consumer
Output per effective producer
Support ratio: effective producers
per effective consumer
Consumption as a fraction of labor
income
( ) ( ) ( )( )
( ) ( ) ( )
lC t Y t L tc t
N t L t N t
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August 22, 2006 Andrew Mason
In Growth Terms
( ) ( ) ( )( )
( ) ( ) ( )
where is the growth rate.
lC t Y t L tgr gr c t gr gr
N t L t N t
gr
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August 22, 2006 Andrew Mason
II. The Support Ratio
0
0
( ) ( , )( )
( )( ) ( , )
( ) - productivity age profile
( ) - consumption "needs" age profile
( , ) - population
a
a
a P a tL t
N ta P a t
a
a
P a t
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August 22, 2006 Andrew Mason
Japan’s Economic Lifecycle, 1999
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
500000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90
Age
Mo
nth
ly p
er
cap
ita (
Yen
)
Labor Income
Consumption( )a
( )a
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August 22, 2006 Andrew Mason
Transforming people into consumers
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000
0-4
10-14
20-14
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
90+
Population of Japan, 2000 Effective Consumers in Japan, 2000
Adjust to
reflectneeds
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000
0-4
10-14
20-14
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
90+
Childrenconsumeless than
adults
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August 22, 2006 Andrew Mason
Transforming people into producers
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000
0-4
10-14
20-14
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
90+
Population of Japan, 2000 Effective producers in Japan, 2000
Adjust to
reflectproductivity
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000
0-4
10-14
20-14
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
90+
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August 22, 2006 Andrew Mason
Japan’s Age Structure Transition1950-2050
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August 22, 2006 Andrew Mason
Effective number of consumers and producers by age
25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
90+
Effective Consumers
Effective Producers
1950Large non-producing
child population
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August 22, 2006 Andrew Mason
Effective number of consumers and producers by age
25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
90+
Effective Consumers
Effective Producers
1955
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August 22, 2006 Andrew Mason
Effective number of consumers and producers by age
25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
90+
Effective Consumers
Effective Producers
1965
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August 22, 2006 Andrew Mason
Effective number of consumers and producers by age
25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
90+
Effective Consumers
Effective Producers
1975
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August 22, 2006 Andrew Mason
Effective number of consumers and producers by age
25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
90+
Effective Consumers
Effective Producers
1985
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August 22, 2006 Andrew Mason
Effective number of consumers and producers by age
25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
90+
Effective Consumers
Effective Producers
1995
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August 22, 2006 Andrew Mason
Effective number of consumers and producers by age
25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
90+
Effective Consumers
Effective Producers
2005
Large producing population
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August 22, 2006 Andrew Mason
Effective number of consumers and producers by age
25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
90+
Effective Consumers
Effective Producers
2010
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August 22, 2006 Andrew Mason
Effective number of consumers and producers by age
25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
90+
Effective Consumers
Effective Producers
2020
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August 22, 2006 Andrew Mason
Effective number of consumers and producers by age
25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
90+
Effective Consumers
Effective Producers
2030
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August 22, 2006 Andrew Mason
Effective number of consumers and producers by age
25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
90+
Effective Consumers
Effective Producers
2040
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August 22, 2006 Andrew Mason
Effective number of consumers and producers by age
25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
90+
Effective Consumers
Effective Producers
2050
Large non-producing old
population
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August 22, 2006 Andrew Mason
Summarizing the Balance Between Producers and Consumers
The support ratio measures the number of producers per consumer.
Effective number of producersSupport ratio
Effective number of consumers
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August 22, 2006 Andrew Mason
Total number of producers and consumers and support ratio by year, 1950-2050
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
tota
l n
um
ber
s o
f co
nsu
mer
s an
d p
rod
uce
rs
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
sup
po
rt r
atio
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August 22, 2006 Andrew Mason
II. The First Demographic Dividend
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August 22, 2006 Andrew Mason
The First Dividend Labor productivity may increase due to techno
progress and capital deepening, but is
independent of L/N
An increase in the support ratio (L/N) leads to an equal percentage rise in
C/N
c(t) is held constant (as in Solow model)
( ) ( ) ( )( )
( ) ( ) ( )
lC t Y t L tc t
N t L t N t
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August 22, 2006 Andrew Mason
Total number of producers and consumers and support ratio by year, 1950-2050
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
tota
l n
um
ber
s o
f co
nsu
mer
s an
d p
rod
uce
rs
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
sup
po
rt r
atio
+28%
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August 22, 2006 Andrew Mason
Japan’s First Dividend
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
500000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90
Age
Mo
nth
ly p
er c
apit
a (Y
en)
Labor Income (t)
Consumption
1950
2005
C/N rises by 28% relative to labor
income
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August 22, 2006 Andrew Mason
Total number of producers and consumers and support ratio by year, 1950-2050
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
tota
l n
um
ber
s o
f co
nsu
mer
s an
d p
rod
uce
rs
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
sup
po
rt r
atio
-25%
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August 22, 2006 Andrew Mason
The End of Japan’s Dividend
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
500000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90+
Age
Mo
nth
ly p
er c
apit
a (Y
en)
Labor Income (t)
Consumption
1950
2005
C/N ends up 3% lower than in 1950
relative to Yl/L
2050
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August 22, 2006 Andrew Mason
0.85
0.95
1.05
1.15
1.25
1.35
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Su
pp
ort
Rati
o
Japan US India China
The First Dividend
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August 22, 2006 Andrew Mason
First Dividend Period
Annual increase in per capita
income
Total increase in per capita
income
Japan 1950-1995 0.5% 27.8%
China 1970-2015 0.8% 45.6%
India 1975-2045 0.4% 35.2%
US 1970-2000 0.4% 11.4%
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August 22, 2006 Andrew Mason
0.85
0.95
1.05
1.15
1.25
1.35
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Su
pp
ort
Ratio
The End of the First DividendJapan, US, India, China
Japan
China
India
US
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August 22, 2006 Andrew Mason
Net Effect of the Support Ratio, 1950 - 2050
Percentage change in support ratio,
1950-2050
Japan -3.5%
China 5.5%
India 27.4%
US -8.2%
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August 22, 2006 Andrew Mason
First Dividend Summary
• Demographic transition leads to favorable change in age structure (increase in support ratio).
• If the saving rate is held constant, consumption increases relative to labor income by the same percentage as the support ratio – the First Dividend.
• The First Dividend is transitory.
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August 22, 2006 Andrew Mason
III. The Second Demographic Dividend
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August 22, 2006 Andrew Mason
The Second Dividend
• First dividend creates a “window of opportunity”. • Rise in support ratio makes it possible to
increase per capita consumption and the saving rate at the same time.
• Population aging leads to an increase in the demand for wealth to meet pension needs.
• If workers save more (increase asset-based reallocations), higher consumption is possible even after the first dividend period has come to an end.
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August 22, 2006 Andrew Mason
The Second Dividend: Closed Economy
c(t) declines in the current period
( ) ( ) ( )( )
( ) ( ) ( )
lC t Y t L tc t
N t L t N t
Increase in domestic
capital
Increase in labor
productivity in the future
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August 22, 2006 Andrew Mason
The Second Dividend: Open Economy
c(t) declines in the current period
( ) ( ) ( )( )
( ) ( ) ( )
lC t Y t L tc t
N t L t N t
Increase in foreign assets
Increase in c(t) in future
periods
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August 22, 2006 Andrew Mason
Critical Issue: How will population aging influence c(t) and assets?• Population aging will lead to an increase in the
old-age lifecycle deficit.• Reallocations from the working ages to old ages
must increase.• Either transfers from workers to the elderly must
increase; asset-based reallocations must increase; or both.
• To the extent that asset-based reallocations increase (higher saving), the Second Dividend is realized.
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August 22, 2006 Andrew Mason
Model of Consumption/Saving
• Cross-sectional profile of labor income is fixed– No changes in labor force participation– Age profile of productivity is fixed
• Cross-sectional profile of consumption is fixed– Generational differences in consumption
reflect unchanging altruism– Different from the lifecycle hypothesis
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August 22, 2006 Andrew Mason
Lifecycle wealth (W)
W = PV[C]-PV[Yl]
– PV[C] is the present value of current and future consumption for those who are currently adults.
– PV[Yl] is the present value of current and future labor income for those who are currently adults.
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August 22, 2006 Andrew Mason
Two Components of W
W = Tk + Wp
• Child transfer wealth (Tk)– The present value of future transfers to children– Tk is a liability and negative
• Pension wealth (Wp) – The present value of consumption in excess of labor
income (the old age lifecycle deficit) in future periods
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August 22, 2006 Andrew Mason
Components of Pension Wealth
• Transfer wealth
• Assets (A(t))
• Key assumption: assets is a constant fraction of pension wealth.
( ) (1 ) ( )pA t W t
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August 22, 2006 Andrew Mason
Financing Old-age Consumption Taiwan, Korea, US
0102030405060708090
100
US 2000 Japan 1999 Korea 2000 Taiwan1998
Work
Asset-basedReallocation
FamilialTransfers
PublicTransfers
Source: Mason et al. 2006
US relies more on saving option
Japan relies more on public transfers
Taiwan and Korea rely on a combination of public and private transfers
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August 22, 2006 Andrew Mason
Will aging lead to greater wealth?
• Fewer children leads to less spending on children.
• Older adults are wealthier than young adults.
• Increase in life expectancy leads to longer retirement and greater demand for wealth.
• Increased reliance on transfer option undermines these effects.
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August 22, 2006 Andrew Mason
Simulations I
• Detailed methodology described in Mason et al. 2006.
• Current consumption and production profiles persist into the future. Japanese profiles used except for US.
• Asset-based reallocations provide 65% of old-age support; transfers provide 35% of old-age support.
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August 22, 2006 Andrew Mason
Simulation of Pension Assets Relative to Labor Income
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1950 1975 2000 2025 2050
Pen
sio
n a
sset
s/la
bo
r in
com
e .
India
US
China
Japan
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August 22, 2006 Andrew Mason
Total Pension Wealth, National Shares, Simulated Values
2000
14%
3%
25%58%
China India Japan US
2050
15%
12%
11%62%
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August 22, 2006 Andrew Mason
Simulation II
• Niger – highest fertility in the world
• Small open economy
• Details: Mason and Lee 2006 (NTA WP06-01)
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August 22, 2006 Andrew Mason
Simulation II Assumptions
Productivity growth 1.5%
Depreciation rate 3.0%
Discount rate 3.0%
Interest rate 6.0% 4.2%
Age profiles Taiwan 1977
Familial share of transfers to children
0.67
Pension transfers as a share of pension wealth
0.35
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August 22, 2006 Andrew Mason
1950-2000: Decline in support ratio due to higher child survival depresses consumption
2000-2090: Window of opportunity, 1st dividend favors economic growth
2090-2200: 1st dividend turns
negative
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August 22, 2006 Andrew Mason
C/Y declines relative to L/N leading to increase in A/Y
Increase in A/Y allows higher
consumption to be sustained
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August 22, 2006 Andrew Mason
Combined effect of 1st and 2nd dividends ranges up 1% p.a. Significant as compared with
productivity growth of 1.5% p.a.
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August 22, 2006 Andrew Mason
Decline in child transfer wealth: fewer children; fewer young parents; but
spending per child higher.
Rise in pension wealth and assets:
fewer children, longer retirement, more
elderly
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August 22, 2006 Andrew Mason
Saving boom
Leads to higher
sustained consumption
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August 22, 2006 Andrew Mason
The Demographic Dividends
• First Dividend – Leads to 50% increase in consumption per
equivalent adult– Dividend period (window of opportunity) lasts
for 70 years– First dividend is ultimately transitory – by
2200 support ratio is only 10% above its 1950 level
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August 22, 2006 Andrew Mason
The Demographic Dividends
• The Second Dividend – First dividend is being capitalized:
consumption depressed by about 5% until near the end of the first dividend period
– Adds almost 20% to consumption at the peak and thereafter
• Combined effect of the two dividends: explains 25% of growth from 2030-2090.
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August 22, 2006 Andrew Mason
Limitations
• Closed economy model not complete
• World-wide effects of population aging not considered
• Assumption about asset-based reallocations (constant tau) too simple.
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August 22, 2006 Andrew Mason
Conclusions
• Age structure has important macroeconomic effects on income, consumption, assets, and other important variables.
• An important and permanent second dividend is available.
• Critical that countries emphasize saving option over transfer option during the “window of opportunity”.
• Substantial regional shifts in GDP and assets are likely.
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August 22, 2006 Andrew Mason
Relationship to earlier work
• Lee, Miller, and Mason (SJE and other)– Standard lifecycle saving model– Transfer system was directly modeled
• Reformed US public transfer system to make it sustainable• Phased out familial transfers in Taiwan
• Mason (Mexico City paper)– Constant tau and altruism as here– Assumed surplus before age 50 went to children and
after age 50 to retirement; no need to calculate child costs
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August 22, 2006 Andrew Mason
Model and NTA
• NTA estimates provide model parameters– Labor income and consumption– Public and private transfers to children– Public transfers to the elderly
• Projections of macro variables for NTA– Labor Income– Consumption– Non-labor income– Familial transfers– Public transfers
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August 22, 2006 Andrew Mason
Notes, Sources, and Funding• Production and consumption profiles
– Japan: Nihon University Population Research Institute under direction of Naohiro Ogawa.
– Taiwan: East-West Center (Honolulu) and Academia Sinica (Taipei) under direction of Andrew Mason and An-Chi Tung.
– United States: Center for the Economics and Demography of Aging, University of California at Berkeley under direction of Ronald Lee.
• Methodology – Mason and Lee 2006.– Mason, Lee, Tung, Lai, and Miller 2005.– Lee, Lee, and Mason 2006.– www.ntaccounts.org
• Funding– National Institute on Aging (US): R01 AG025488 and R37 AG025247
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August 22, 2006 Andrew Mason
The End