Demographic and Socio-Economic Trends · 2019. 11. 28. · census tracts boundaries based on...
Transcript of Demographic and Socio-Economic Trends · 2019. 11. 28. · census tracts boundaries based on...
SOUTH SA N FRANCISCO GENERAL PLAN UPDATE
UPDATE
Demographic and Socio-Economic Trends November 2019 | EXISTING CONDITIONS REPORT
1 Existing Conditions Report
Chapter 1: Demographic and Socio-Economic Trends Understanding a city’s demographic and socio-economic trends helps planners, public health professionals, and city decision makers plan for change and target appropriate programs and services. This chapter presents data at the citywide and sub-area levels for age, race, households, origin and language and socio-economic conditions, such as educational attainment, employment, income, and housing costs.
Key Findings The following represent key findings, issues, and opportunities related to the demographic and socio-economic
trends in South San Francisco.
• As the City has continued to grow, the racial composition has evolved since 1990, with a majority Asian
Pacific Islander and Latino population in 2017. The majority of Asian Pacific Islanders reside in the
Westborough sub-area, while the majority of Latinos reside in the Downtown sub-area.
• Since 1990, the city has seen a significant increase in older adult population (age 60+) and
stable/decreasing youth population (age 18 and under). The majority of children live near downtown,
and the majority of older adults live in the western side of the city.
• More than half of all South San Franciscans speak a language other than English at home. Nearly a
quarter of the population speaks English less than very well.
• Since 1990, more people (families, multi-generational families, and non-families) are living together in a
single household.
• Rates of educational attainment have greatly increased since 1990, but Pacific Islanders and Latinos
have the lowest high school graduation rates (under 75%).
City of South San Francisco General Plan Update 2
• Although housing costs in South San Francisco are lower than San Mateo County overall, apartment
rents and home sales prices are rapidly growing in the city and county.
• Housing affordability challenges in South San Francisco were worsened by relatively slow growth of
median household incomes in both the city and San Mateo County (from 2010-2017).
Sub-Areas Building on the sub-areas established for the 1999 General Plan Planning Sub-Areas Element, data was
aggregated from census block groups to city sub-areas to provide a summary comparison across the City.1 Figure
1 is a map of the City’s sub-areas for reference throughout this chapter.
Figures in this chapter show US Census tract boundaries overlaid on top of the City. The US Census created
census tracts boundaries based on population size. Neighborhoods with lower populations are grouped
together. Maps showing US Census data with original census tract boundaries will show data for East of 101 and
Lindenville, where there are no residents2. This same census tract extends to residential portions of Orange Park
and El Camino.
General Demographics Information on the general demographic characteristics of a population are important because people of
different ages, genders, and race and ethnicities have different service needs. For example, neighborhoods with a
larger proportion of older adults may require longer crossing times at intersections to account for slower walking
speeds. Neighborhoods with more children may need greater access to parks and childcare services. Knowing
the racial composition of a community can provide context about needed language services and culturally-
appropriate solutions.
Current population demographics are compared to past numbers (1990-2010), as well as comparisons to San
Mateo County or other neighboring cities, such as Redwood City and San Mateo to give perspective on the
contrast between South San Francisco and the region.
1 Census block groups do not follow city boundaries, therefore estimated aggregate total values differ from the South San
Francisco Census Designated Place total by approximately 3,000. 2 Census tract (060816023001) covers all of East of 101 and Lindenville. It also includes most of Orange Park and a portion of El
Camino.
3 Existing Conditions Report
Figure 1: Planning Sub-Areas
City of South San Francisco General Plan Update 4
Population South San Francisco has steadily grown since it was incorporated in 1908, as shown in Figure 2. The major boom
in growth began in 1940 and continued until 1960. During these two decades the city grew from just under 7,000
people to almost 40,000 people. The city has continued to grow since that period. In the last 20 years, the city’s
population has increased by 24%.3 The City currently holds 9% of the San Mateo County population.4
Figure 2: Population Change Over Time
Source: US Census Bureau Decennial Censuses (1910 – 2010); American Community Survey, 5-year estimates (2013-2017)
Age Profile Figure 3 shows the change in the total number of city’s residents by age category. South San Francisco has a
stable to declining youth population and a growing older adult population (Figure 3). The number of residents
over the age of 45 and the number of older adults over the age of 65 have both increased significantly. Children
under the age of 17 have slightly decreased over the past 50 years and children under 5 remain one of the
smallest populations in the City. Stable to declining youth populations may indicate fewer young families
settling down in the city.
3 US Census Bureau Decennial Censuses (1910 – 2010); American Community Survey, 5-year estimates (2013-2017) 4 American Community Survey, 5-year estimates (2013-2017)
1,989 4,411
6,193
6,629
19,351
39,418 46,646
49,393 54,312
60,552
63,632
67,120
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2017
5 Existing Conditions Report
Figure 3: Age Distribution Over Time5
Source: US Census Bureau Decennial Censuses (1910 – 2010); American Community Survey, 5-year estimates (2013-2017)
The youth population is predominantly Hispanic or Latino (49%) and Asian (34%), while the older adult
population is predominantly White (42%) and Asian (41%). More than half (60%) of older adults (over 65 years of
age) are foreign born, compared to 40% in the county.6
Figure 4: Percentage of Population Over 60 and Under 18 Years Old by Race
Source: American Community Survey, 5-year estimates (2013-2017)
5 For some years, population is an estimate calculated by dividing the age 15-19 age group by two and splitting between the two
age groups (5-17 and 18-24) 6 American Community Survey, 5-year estimates Table S0102 (2013-2017))
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2017
Under 5 5-17 18-24 25-44 45-64 65+
0.01% 0.2%0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Hispanic
or Latino
Asian White Some
Other
Race
Two or
More
Races
Black Native
Hawaiian
and
Pacific
Islander
American
indian
Alaska
Native
Youth (under 17) Older Adults (65+)
City of South San Francisco General Plan Update 6
The age profile differs significantly by sub-area. Areas such as Westborough, Avalon, and El Camino have higher
proportions of older adults, whereas the Downtown sub-area has the highest concentration of children (under 17
years old) and adults between the ages of 25-44. Sunshine Gardens has the highest concentration of young
adults (ages 18-24) (Figure 5).
Figure 5: Age by Sub-Area7
Source: American Community Survey, 5-year estimates (2013-2017)
The growth and decline of population by age category has important implications for planning and can pose
new challenges for South San Francisco, including changing demands on schools, City services, and needed
housing types.
7 Summarized using the block group proportion method
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
East of 101
Lindenville
Sign Hill
Orange Park
Paradise Valley/Terrabay
El Camino
Avalon
Sunshine Gardens
Winston Serra
Downtown
Westborough
0-17 18-24 25-44 45-64 65+
7 Existing Conditions Report
Race and Ethnicity Like the city’s age profile, the racial and ethnicity composition of the city’s residents has evolved. South San
Francisco has shifted from majority White to majority Asian Pacific Islander since 1990, while the county remains
majority White (Figure 6). The African American population decreased even further since 1990. The Westborough
sub-area has the largest Asian Pacific Islander population (73%) in the city. Likewise, the Downtown sub-area has
the largest Latino/Hispanic population (68%) in the city (Figure 7). These evolving demographic characteristics
may require new services and programs to meet the needs of these populations.
Figure 6: Race and Ethnicity Over Time
Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Censuses (1990 – 2010); American Community Survey, 5-year estimates (2013-2017)
Figure 7: Race by Sub-Area (ranked by largest total population)8
Source: American Community Survey, 5-year estimates (2013-2017)
8 Summarized using the block group proportion method
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Sign Hill
Orange Park
Paradise Valley/Terra Bay
El Camino
Avalon
Sunshine Gardens
Winston Serra
Downtown
Westborough
Asian or Pacific Islander Hispanic/Latino White Other (Other and AIAN) Black or African American
City of South San Francisco General Plan Update 8
Family Type and Size Despite adding nearly 2,000 housing units since 1990, the number of people per household has increased by
eleven percent from 2.9 to 3.2.9 A number of factors may be contributing to the increase in household size. Multi-
generational households and non-relatives living at home (roommates) have doubled since 2000 (Figure 8).
Furthermore, as housing costs have risen across the city and region, placing increasing housing stress on
families, more people are crowding into each residential unit.
Figure 8: Increase in Household Size
Source: American Community Survey, 5-year estimates (2013-2017)
Place of Origin and Language Spoken at Home Determining the origins and language abilities in a community can help South San Francisco identify community
needs and provide effective bilingual programs and other services. 40% of South San Francisco residents were
not born in the United States, compared to San Mateo County, where about 35% of residents are foreign-born,
and the state, where 27% of residents are foreign-born.
Foreign-born households include both documented and undocumented residents. According to the Public
Policy Institute of California, more than half of (52%) of immigrants in the State are naturalized United States
citizens and another 34% have legal status, including green cards and visas.10 The number of undocumented
immigrants in California has decreased from 2.0 to 1.5 million (2010-2017).
9 US Census Bureau, Decennial Censuses (1990 – 2010); American Community Survey, 5-year estimates (2013-2017) 10 Johnson, H. and S. Sanchez. (2019). Immigration in California. Retrieved from: https://www.ppic.org/publication/immigrants-
in-california/
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
Parents and In-laws Living at
Home
Non-Relatives Living at
Home2000 2017
9 Existing Conditions Report
Since 1990, the city experienced a ten percent increase in foreign-born residents. The foreign-born population is
older in South San Francisco with a median age of 51.9 years, compared to a median age of 29.6 years for US-
born residents. Foreign-born residents who live in South San Francisco experience very different socio-economic
conditions from US-born residents. Foreign born residents are more likely to have a larger household size (3.6
compared to 2.8 for US-born), not be a high school graduate for population 25 and over (22% compared to 7%
for US-born), and speak a language other than English at home (92% compared to 33% for US-born).11
More than half of all South San Franciscans (58%) speak a language other than English at home.12 The top three
languages are Spanish, Tagalog, and Mandarin or Cantonese (Figure 9). Mandarin and Tagalog speakers are
clustered in the Westborough sub-area and Spanish-speakers in the Downtown sub-area. Nearly a quarter (23%)
of the total population speak English less than very well (Figure 10).13 Nearly 22% of students enrolled in the
South San Francisco School District are English Learners.14
Figure 9: Languages Spoken at Home
Source: American Community Survey, 5-year estimates (2013-2017) - C16001
11 American Community Survey, 5-year estimates Table S0501 (2013-2017) 12 American Community Survey, 5-year estimates Table C16001 (2013-2017) 13 American Community Survey, 5-year estimates Table CP02 (2013-2017) 14 English Learners (2017-2018). Ed-Data.org. Retrieved from: http://www.ed-data.org/district/San-Mateo/South-San-
Francisco-Unified
English Only42%
Spanish26%
Tagalog13%Mandarin or
Cantonese10%
Other Indo-European
Lagnuages4%
Other languages3%
Other Asian and Pacific Island
languages2%
City of South San Francisco General Plan Update 10
Figure 10: People Who Speak English Less than Very Well
Source: American Community Survey, 5-year estimates (2012-2016)
This map shows US Census data with original census tract boundaries. One particular census tract extends from East of 101 and Lindenville to residential portions of Orange Park and El Camino.
11 Existing Conditions Report
Socio-Economic Conditions Information relating to education, employment, income, and housing costs are important because lower, higher,
or changing rates impact the community of South San Francisco. When available, data was disaggregated by
race to consider social and economic factors.
Education As of 2017, over 30% of South San Franciscans have a Bachelor’s degree or above (Figure 11). This represents a
48% increase (since 1990) in South San Francisco adults over the age of 25 that have received a college degree or
higher. Despite this increase, the proportion of residents with a high school degree or less is significantly greater
than the county as a whole (36% to 27%). The latest cohort graduation data shows that Pacific Islanders (58%)
and Latinos (74%) have the lowest graduation rates among their peers (Figure 12).15
Educational attainment is low in areas of Downtown, with less than 15% of residents in the area closest to the
Caltrain station holding at least a Bachelor’s degree (Figure 13). Nearly 14% of South San Francisco students
receiving special education services. The city has the highest rate when compared to other San Mateo county
school districts (average 11.5%).16
15 California Department of Education DataQuest (2017-2018). Graduates as a Percentage of a 4-year adjusted cohort by Race 16 Special Education Enrollment. (2018) KidsData.org Retrieved from: https://www.kidsdata.org/topic/95/special-needs-
education-enrollment/table#jump=why-
important&fmt=1146&loc=4,5,6,7,8,9,13,14,15,16,18,19,20,17,21,22,23,24,25,27,28,30,31,32&tf=108&sortColumnId=1&sortType=des
c
City of South San Francisco General Plan Update 12
Figure 11: Educational Attainment of Population 25 Years and Older
Source: American Community Survey, 5-year estimates (2013-2017)
Figure 12: High School Graduates by Race (4-year adjusted cohort)17
Source: California Department Education DataQuest, 5-year estimates (2017-2018)
17 African American and American Indian or Alaska Native data for the City was suppressed by the California Department of
Education. The CDE suppresses data when the cohort is 10 students or less.
15%
11%
21%
16%
31%
25%26%28%
7%
20%
South San Francisco San Mateo County
Did not complete high school High school or equivalency
Some College Bachelor's degree
Master's degree or above
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Asian Filipino Two or More
Races
White Hispanic or
Latino
Pacific Islander
South San Francisco San Mateo County
13 Existing Conditions Report
Figure 13: Percent of Population with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher, by Census Block Group, 2017
Source: American Community Survey, 5-year estimates (2012-2016)
This map shows US Census data with original census tract boundaries. One particular census tract extends from East of 101 and Lindenville to residential portions of Orange Park and El Camino.
City of South San Francisco General Plan Update 14
Teachers and public school staff are not reflective of the diverse South San Francisco population. Latinos and
Asian Pacific Islanders (Asian, Filipino, Pacific Islander) are the largest populations in the city, but they have lower
rates of teachers and staff per 100 students (Figure 14).
Figure 14: Teacher and Staff Diversity (Same race per 100 students of same race)
Source: Advancement Project California. Race Counts. American Community Survey, 1-year estimates (2014-2015)
Income The median household income in South San Francisco in 2017 was $92,704, nearly $14,000 lower than San Mateo
County ($105,667) (Figure 15).
In South San Francisco, median household income varies significantly by race and ethnicity. Asian median
household income ($111,486) is more than two times higher than Native Hawaiian Pacific Islander median
household income ($49,667).18 Native Hawaiian Pacific Islanders make up one-percent of the city’s population
(991 residents) and are the only race citywide making less than 80% of the State median household income.19
18 Asians and Pacific Islanders are usually aggregated when conducting demographic analysis due to small sample sizes. The
populations were statistically reliable to disaggregate and we are able to see that these populations experience live in South
San Francisco differently. 19 The California Median Household Income (MHI) for ACS 2017-5 year is $67,169. 80% of the CA MHI is $53,735.
1.4% 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0%3.2% 1.7% 1.0% 0.5% 1.2%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
White Black Asian Filipino Two or
More
Races
Pacific
Islander
Latino Native
American
South San Francisco San Mateo County
15 Existing Conditions Report
Figure 15: Median Household Income by Race/Ethnicity
Source: American Community Survey, 5-year estimates (2013-2017)
Only 7% of people live under the poverty level in both the city and county. The city, however, has higher rates of
youth in households below the poverty level when compared to the county (Figure 16).
Figure 16: Youth and Older Adults in Households Below the Poverty Level
Source: American Community Survey, 5-year estimates (2013-2017) - S0901 and S0102
Geographically, higher income households are concentrated in Paradise Valley/Terra Bay, Winston Serra, Avalon,
and Westborough sub-areas. Figure 17 shows the distribution of median income households in the City,
including those households that make less than 80% of the state median household income. As previously
stated, a majority of residents in the Downtown sub-area make less than 80% of the state median income.
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
$140,000
Total Asian
Alone
White
Alone
Two or
More
Races
Latino Other
Alone
Black
Alone
Native
Hawaiian
Pacific
Islander
AloneSouth San Francisco San Mateo County
9%8%
5%6%
South San Francisco San Mateo CountyYouth (under 17) Older Adults (60+)
City of South San Francisco General Plan Update 16
Figure 17: Median Household Income by Census Block Group
Source: American Community Survey, 5-year estimates (2013-2017)
This map shows US Census data with original census tract boundaries. One particular census tract extends fromEast of 101 and Lindenville to residential portions of Orange Park and El Camino.
17 Existing Conditions Report
Housing Recent housing rent and sales price trends illustrate why changes in housing affordability are creating
community concerns about displacement and future access to housing for low- and moderate-income
households in South San Francisco. In general, changes in local housing costs are important indicators of
displacement risk because rent appreciation is a consistent predictor of displacement.20 Increases in home
prices also increase the likelihood of a landlord’s interest in selling a unit, potentially triggering renter evictions.
Although housing costs in South San Francisco are lower than the county overall, apartment rents and home
sales prices are rapidly growing in the city and county. According to real estate analytics and sales firm Redfin,
the median sales price per square foot of single family homes in South San Francisco increased 109% from 2012
to 2019 (from $383 to $799), compared to 123% in San Mateo County (from $386 to $861) (Figure 18). Apartment
rents per square foot in multifamily buildings increased by 46% in South San Francisco between the first quarter
of 2009 and the first quarter of 2019 (from $2.13 to $3.10), according to data available from CoStar (Figure 9). This
is slightly below the rate of increase in San Mateo County, where rents grew 51% (from $2.27 to $3.43).
Housing affordability challenges in South San Francisco were worsened by relatively slow growth of median
household incomes in both the city and San Mateo County. The median annual income in South San Francisco
only increased by 24% between 2010 and 2017, from $74,158 to $92,074.21
20 Zuk, Bierbaum, Chapple, Gorska, Loukaitou-Sideris (2017). Gentrification, Displacement, and the Role of Public Investment.
Journal of Planning Literature. 21 U.S. Census American Community Survey data via Social Explorer, 2006-2010 and 2013-2017 5-year estimates.
City of South San Francisco General Plan Update 18
Figure 18: Median Single Family Home Sale Price per Square Foot
Source: Redfin, 2019; Strategic Economics, 2019.
Figure 19: Effective Monthly Rent per Square Foot for Multifamily Buildings
Source: Costar, 2019; Strategic Economics, 2019.
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,2001/
1/20
12
5/1/
2012
9/1/
2012
1/1/
2013
5/1/
2013
9/1/
2013
1/1/
2014
5/1/
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5/1/
2017
9/1/
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1/1/
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5/1/
2018
9/1/
2018
1/1/
2019
5/1/
2019
South San Francisco San Mateo County
$0.00
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
2008
Q1
2008
Q3
2009
Q1
2009
Q3
2010
Q1
2010
Q3
2011
Q1
2011
Q3
2012
Q1
2012
Q3
2013
Q1
2013
Q3
2014
Q1
2014
Q3
2015
Q1
2015
Q3
2016
Q1
2016
Q3
2017
Q1
2017
Q3
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Q1
2018
Q3
2019
Q1
QT
D
South San Francisco San Mateo County
19 Existing Conditions Report
Appendix Age by Neighborhood Chart
Sub-Area 0-17 18-24 25-44 45-64 65+
# % # % # % # % # %
East of 101 0 0 0 0 0
Lindenville 0 0 0 0 0
Sign Hill 541 19.8 113 4.1 865 31.6 780 28.5 438 16
Orange Park 768 21.3 323 9.0 1115 30.9 962 26.7 440 12.2
Paradise
Valley/Terra
Bay 686 18.7 310 8.5 1056 28.8 1082 29.6 528 14.4
El Camino 703 16 345 7.9 1269 28.9 1245 28.3 832 18.9
Avalon 941 14.9 654 10.4 1768 28.1 1763 28 1178 18.7
Sunshine
Gardens 1359 19.5 787 11.3 2060 29.5 1765 25.3 1008 14.4
Winston
Serra 2309 21.2 629 5.8 2826 25.9 3285 30.1 1851 17
Downtown 3117 25.7 1018 8.4 4177 34.4 2568 21.1 1267 10.4
Westborough 2264 16.9 916 6.8 4051 30.2 3747 28 2426 18.1
Source: American Community Survey, 5-year estimates (2013-2017)
Race by Neighborhood Chart
Sub-Area API Latino White Other Black
# % # % # % # % # %
East of 101 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 -
Lindenville 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 -
Sign Hill 939 34.8 1072 40 635 24 43 1.6 6 0.2
Orange Park 1320 37.8 1674 47.9 439 13 6 0.2 56 2
Paradise
Valley/Terra
Bay
1702 48 1333 37 501 14 17 0.5 25 1
El Camino 1644 39 1376 32 1129 27 3 0.1 98 2
Avalon 1969 34 1529 26 2251 38 0 0 101 2
Sunshine
Gardens 2686 40 2653 39.3 1246 18.47 69 1 93 1.4
Winston
Serra 4251 40 3150 30 3039 29 0 0 75 1
Downtown 1909 16 7949 68 1459 13 54 0.5 250 2
Westborough 9477 73 1207 9 1666 13 59 0.5 540 4
Source: American Community Survey, 5-year estimates (2013-2017)
City of South San Francisco General Plan Update 20
Percent of Population Identifying as Hispanic or Latino (of any race), by Block Group, 2017
Source: American Community Survey, 5-year estimates (2013-2017)
This map shows US Census data with original census tract boundaries. One particular census tract extends fromEast of 101 and Lindenville to residential portions of Orange Park and El Camino.
21 Existing Conditions Report
Percent of Population Identifying as Asian, by Block Group, 2017
Source: American Community Survey, 5-year estimates (2013-2017)
This map shows US Census data with original census tract boundaries. One particular census tract extends from East of 101 and Lindenville to residential portions of Orange Park and El Camino.
City of South San Francisco General Plan Update 22
Percent of Population Identifying as Black or African American, by Block Group, 2017
Source: American Community Survey, 5-year estimates (2013-2017)
This map shows US Census data with original census tract boundaries. One particular census tract extends from East of 101 and Lindenville to residential portions of Orange Park and El Camino.
23 Existing Conditions Report
Percent of Population Identifying as Native American, Pacific Islander, Biracial, or Any Other Race, by Block Group, 2017
Source: American Community Survey, 5-year estimates (2013-2017)
This map shows US Census data with original census tract boundaries. One particular census tract extends from East of 101 and Lindenville to residential portions of Orange Park and El Camino.