Demand for Education and Training: Stimulus package and beyond Center on Education and the Workforce...

Demand for Education and Training: Stimulus package and beyond

Center on Education and the Workforce

March 6th 2009

Figure 1: The Jobs are trending and will continue to trend downwards

Establishment Employment (in millions)

2007 2008 2009

MA Forecast

Dec 07recession

Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009Source: CEW’s Analysis of Macroeconomic Advisers, Long-term Economic Outlook, January 2009

Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009

Less than 4 years of High School

4.6%

10.1%

4 or more years of High School, no College

2.9%

5.8%

2.9%

Some college, 1-3 years 4.2%

1.3%BA and above

2.1%

4.4%

All

0.0%

4.0%

8.0%

12.0%

16.0%

20.0%

1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Nov 73-Mar75Recession

Jan 80-Jul 80Recession

Jul 81-Nov 82Recession

Jul 90-Mar91Recession

Mar 01-Nov 01Recession

Dec '07-presentRecession

Figure 2: Those with relatively lower levels of human capital are most

negatively affected by recessions demonstrating the task before the Workforce Investment Boards

Unemployment by education Level

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Situation

Less than a high school diploma

12.6%

7.4%

8.3%

4.7%

High school graduates, no college

Some college or associate degree

3.8%

7%

Bachelor's degree or higher

4.1%

2.1%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Feb 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 08 Jan 09 Feb 09

Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Situation

Figure 2b: Most current data on unemployment by education level

Unemployment by education Level

Tom Toles Washingington Post, 3-4-09

The experts have their say on the depth and length of the recession.

Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009Source: The Washington Post, Match 4th 2009


Figure 3: ¿¿¿ Will it ever end???

Establishment Employment (in Millions)

Source: CEW’s Analysis of Macroeconomic Advisers, Long-term Economic Outlook, January 2009

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

MA Forecast

Dec 07recession


Figure 4: The business cycle: We need think about acting in a recession as setting the grounds for recovery

Establishment Employment (in Millions)

Source: CEW’s Analysis of Macroeconomic Advisers, Long-term Economic Outlook, January 2009

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

MA Forecast

Mar 01-Nov 01 recession

Jul 81-Nov82

Jul 90-Nov91

Jan 80-Jul 80

recession

Dec 07-present

recession

Topics of discussion

Job growth by industry and occupation The Education and training requirements of

stimulus jobs Training in the recession and recovery And what about “Green” Jobs? – Many

emerging jobs can’t be predicted easily Thinking beyond the recession Our ongoing research


Table 1: What Types of Jobs? (The Highlights)

General Specific

Infrastructure

Weatherization

Fixing and upgrading road and bridges

Creation of new and improvement of commuter and light rail transit

Clean Water, Flood Control and Environmental Restoration

Expanding broadband services

Modernizing more than 75% of federal buildings and improve the energy efficiency of two million American homes.

Health Care Maintenance of Medicaid programs

Implementation of computerized Health care Technology

Science and Technology Study of genetic disorders

Doubling the production of alternative energy in the next 3 years.

Climate Science and bio fuels

Education Systems State Fiscal Stabilization Fund

Local School Districts Fund

Source: American Recovery and Reinvestment Act

The White House, February 2009

11,000

26,000

50,000

98,000

99,000

158,000

214,000

240,000

244,000

345,000

408,000

499,000

604,000

678,000

Jobs Created by Industry, 2010Q4

Construction

Retail Trade

Leisure and Hospitality

Manufacturing

Professional and Business Services

Government

Education and Health Services

Financial Activities

Wholesale Trade

Other Services

Transportation and Warehousing

Mining

Information

Utilities

3,675,000 Total

Figure 5: A Breakdown of Jobs by Industry, Obama Administration’s Plan for

Jobs based on the Stimulus Package. –Construction (18%), Retail (15%), Hospitality (14%) and Manufacturing (11%) produce 60% of the Jobs

Source: Romer and Bernstein (2009) based on their estimates of the effects by industry from Mark Zandi’s Source: Romer and Bernstein (2009) based on their estimates of the effects by industry from Mark Zandi’s ““The Economic Impact of a $600 Billion Fiscal Stimulus Package,” Moody’s Economy.com, November 28th 2008.The Economic Impact of a $600 Billion Fiscal Stimulus Package,” Moody’s Economy.com, November 28th 2008.


610,785

486,814

543,972

498,586

423,845

13,325

497,566

157,840

241,766

199,501

Management, business, & related occs

Professional and related occs

Service occs

Sales and related occs

Office & administrative support occs

Farming, fishing, and forestry occs

Construction & extraction occs

Installation, maintenance, & repair occs

Production occs

Transportation & material moving occs

Distribution of 3.7 Million Stimulus Jobs by Occupation

Figure 6: Distribution of 3.7 Million Stimulus Jobs by Occupation. The

Majority of these jobs (59%) will be in Managerial (17%), Service (15%), Construction (14%) and Sales (14%) related occupations.

Source: Carnevale, Strohl and Smith’s analysis of March CPS data, 2005-2007 (pooled sample)


Figure 7: Education Requirements for Stimulus Package Jobs.

Source: Carnevale, Strohl and Smith’s analysis of O*NET Education and Training data by Occupation


46% College Jobs

54% non-College Jobs445,396

1,258,637

287,303

338,514

336,807

691,095

49,936

168,494

9,633

50,658

36,163

1,364

High school dropout, 12%

High school graduate,

34%

Post-secondary certificate, 8%

Some college no degree, 9%

Associate degree, 9%

Bachelor's degree, 19%

Post-bachelor's certificate, 1.4%

Master's degree, 5%

Post master's certificate, 0.3%

First professional

degree, 1.4%

PhD, 1%

Post doctoral training,

0.04%

3,675,000 Total

This is not you father’s WPA

Non-College Jobs require formal and informal training

Many jobs require extensive experience Mapping skill sets to emerging jobs will be an

important function to move the unemployed from one trade to another

O*NET might be key ( more discussion later)

586,00025%

677,20129%

251,66111%

286,60912%

243,35810%

146,3606%

83,4334%

61,2283%

None or shortdemo

Short demo to 1Month

1-3 months 3-6 months 6-12 months 1-2 years 2-4 years More than 4years

*Non-college jobs include high school dropouts, high school graduates, post-secondary certificates and some college but no degree.

Carnevale, Strohl and Smith’s analysis of O*NET Education and Training data by Occupation Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009

Figure 8: Many of the non-college jobs * require Employer-Provided Classroom Training which is often short and could be satisfied by job preparation

and other training.


292,71213%

531,51823%

454,21419%

360,32615% 342,604

15%

160,8337%

101,2914.3% 84,351

3.7%

None or shortdemo

Short demo to 1Month

1-3 months 3-6 months 6-12 months 1-2 years 2-4 years More than 4years



Figure 9: Many of these non-college jobs * also require Informal On-the-

Job Training


521,06522%

126,8605% 84,806

4%

118,1925%

249,50511%

456,89120%

377,40516%

195,3908%

66,2393%

133,4996%

None Up to 1month

1-3 months 3-6 months 6-12months

1-2 years 2-4 years 4-6 years 6-8 years More than 8years



Figure 10: Work Experience is Required for

non-College Jobs *

521,06567%

126,86015%

84,8068%

118,1924%

249,5053% 456,891

2% 377,4051%

None Up to andincluding 1 year

1-2 years 2-3 years 3-4 years 4-5 years 5-6 years

Figure 11: Registered Apprenticeship Training Required

for non-College Jobs in the Stimulus Package*

*Non-college jobs include high school dropouts, high school graduates, post-secondary certificates and some college but no degree.Apprenticeships presented in this chart are those with a registered US Department of Labor program that provide a certificate of completion. They represent approximately 25-50% of all Apprenticeship programs in the United States. (This number is a rough estimate provided by industry experts. Estimates of unregistered apprenticeship programs are difficult to obtain).

Source: Carnevale, Strohl and Smith’s analysis of O*NET Education and Training data by Occupation Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009


396,000

206,000

215,000

269,000

0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000

AL

AK

AZ

AR

CA

CO

CT

DE

DC

FL

GA

HI

ID

IL

IN

IA

KS

KY

LA

ME

MD

MA

MI

MN

MS

MO

MT

NE

NV

NH

NJ

NM

NY

NC

ND

OH

OK

OR

P A

RI

SC

SD

T N

T X

UT

VT

VA

WA

WV

WI

WY

Figure 12: Employment Impact of the Stimulus PackageBy State- While the numbers differ the per capita

impact is fairly even

Source: American Recovery and Reinvestment Act: State-by-State Impact, The White House, February 2009

WSJ estimates 1/27/09 http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-STIMULUS0109.html

Table 2: Large numbers of training dollars will flow to the states quickly but in per capita terms coverage varies

widely: Alaska-$20 per capita, California -$13.80, Iowa -$5.46

Job Training Job Training Job Training

Alabama 31,416,013 KY 48,165,776 ND 8,761,506

Alaska 13,715,640 La 43,401,452 Ohio 155,039,850

Arizona 48,538,123 Maine 11,934,126 Oklahoma 23,305,408

Arkansas 27,607,040 MD 34,576,551 Oregon 39,414,636

California 507,839,639 MA 60,581,167 Pa 103,928,168

Colorado 32,525,697 MI 200,786,089 RI 15,238,027

Conn 31,929,081 Minn 47,418,790 SC 65,977,433

Delaware 7,020,525 Miss 46,179,669 SD 8,573,825

DC 10,657,624 Missouri 69,653,391 Tenn 68,591,645

Florida 149,882,674 Montana 9,259,009 Texas 196,591,556

Georgia 91,984,831 NE 10,982,375 Utah 15,033,125

Hawaii 7,625,013 Nevada 26,232,582 Vermont 6,978,923

Idaho 10,254,185 NH 8,150,501 Virginia 39,295,584

Illinois 163,074,364 NJ 65,122,101 Wash 56,799,208

Indiana 60,372,907 NM 15,888,368 WVa 14,647,874

Iowa 16,390,905 NY 189,868,406 Wisc 42,542,980

Kansas 19,106,629 NC 81,338,934 Wy 7,322,768


Training in the recession

Substantial amounts of money in the stimulus package are devoted to training

These monies are mandated to be spent quickly

The timeliness of the problem demands training occur through existing channels to meet the requirements of today’s “shovel-ready jobs”

Stimulus bill allows education and training to extend UI.


Training in the recession cont’d

We can expect increased demand for short-term training

Currently, specific size of this demand is difficult to predict until the pool of skills of the unemployed is utilized

Current technology holds promise to improve the understanding of employer demand


Current Technological Advances

Data Systems are evolving The future of training systems suggests that

real time job openings data are able to provide quick and accurate snapshots of job demand and thus help predict changing training needs

LED and LEHD data provide trend and extensive local data

O*NET can be used to understand skill transferability as well as better targeting training

And What about ‘Green Jobs’

Green jobs reference the “Green Jobs Act of 2007” which was later included in the Energy Security and Independence Act

Unlike other workforce efforts focusing on Industry or Occupation green jobs are defined by their impact on the environment

Innovative job creation and training offers a unique opening for workforce development in that new jobs can be created. While ripe for abuse (relabeling old jobs) Jobs can be grown through Green Job Monies Yesterday’s Civilian Conservation Corps can become

today’s Green Jobs Corps


Thinking Beyond the Recession I

The stimulus will deliver monies that can leverage the existing training system to evolve if people on the ground are not overwhelmed by crisis and see that recovery follows.


Thinking Beyond the Recession II

Accelerated Curricula and Course Clusters can provide training that is responsive to evolving workforce needs.

Longer term employment projections still suggest extensive growth in education demand for some college and above.

The story is not all middle-skill jobs either. The middle-skill story derives from BLS

truncating education demand; A method BLS, is changing.



Highest Education Level Attained 2006 2016 %age Change

Less than high school 14.2 15.0 5.7%

High School Diploma 44.1 41.4 -6.2%

Some College 25.8 27.3 5.8%

Less than an Associate’s Degree 84.1 83.7-0.5%

Associate’s Degree 15.5 20.0 29.3%

Bachelor’s Degree 34.5 42.7 23.8%

Graduate Degree 16.6 19.9 19.8%

AA degree and higher 66.6 82.624%

Total 150.6 million 166.2 million 10.4%

Table 3: Projected Demand for Education to 2016, CEW estimates

(in millions)

Source: Center’s calculations of projections in the demand for education using March CPS data, various years

Conclusion

The recession will bring relatively high unemployment especially among marginalized populations.

Unemployment among BAs and Graduates is pushing 4% while High School and Less is bridging 12%

The Stimulus purposely distributes monies through the existing WIA channels because this is where the ‘Rubber hits the Road’

Thinking beyond the recession gives opportunity to leverage training monies towards new, innovative, and fluid training systems built on signaling from real time data, and delivered via accelerated curricula, when appropriate


Ongoing research at the Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce

We are engaging the Department of Labor and other groups to develop the use of Real Time Job Openings as a tool for Workforce Development.

We are adjusting current employment projections for the effects of the recession and stimulus

Once the adjustments are made nationally we will reproduce in-depth analyses at that state and sub-state levels.


Demand for Education and Training: Stimulus package and beyond Center on Education and the Workforce...

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