Rethinking Rethinking Development by Development by Leveraging Global Leveraging Global KnowledgeKnowledge

Alex DehganAlex DehganS&T Adviser to the Administrator S&T Adviser to the Administrator of the US Agency for International of the US Agency for International DevelopmentDevelopment

6 Concerns 6 Concerns 5 Trends5 Trends5 Opportunities5 Opportunities

Redefining National SecurityRedefining National Security

Global > LocalGlobal > Local

Meta-analysis of Biological ImpactsMeta-analysis of Biological Impacts

• Correlated 90% changes in 28,800 Correlated 90% changes in 28,800 biological processes against biological processes against observed temperature increases.observed temperature increases.

• Looked at alternative causation due Looked at alternative causation due to landuse changes.to landuse changes.

• In biological systems, changes In biological systems, changes include shifts in spring events (for include shifts in spring events (for example, leaf unfolding, blooming example, leaf unfolding, blooming date, migration and time of date, migration and time of reproduction), species distributions reproduction), species distributions and community structure. and community structure. Additionally, studies have Additionally, studies have demonstrated changes in marine-demonstrated changes in marine-ecosystemecosystem

• In a few hundred years, people have In a few hundred years, people have released amounts of fossil carbon released amounts of fossil carbon that took the planet hundreds of that took the planet hundreds of millions of years to store.millions of years to store.

(Rosenzweig et al., Nature, May 15, 2008)

Increased Variability of Climate ResponsesIncreased Variability of Climate Responses

• Increases in flood risk due Increases in flood risk due to intensification of the to intensification of the global water cycle.global water cycle.

• Milly et al, Nature (2002) Milly et al, Nature (2002) found that during the 20found that during the 20thth century, “great floods”, century, “great floods”, increased substantially.increased substantially.

• Great floods were 1:100 Great floods were 1:100 year floods with basins > year floods with basins > 200,000 km2.200,000 km2.

• Consistent with climate Consistent with climate model. model.

H1: Climate + Environment = Nonlinear Impacts

Habitat loss can cause some extinctions directly by removing all the individuals over a short period of time. Alternatively, it can be indirectly responsible for lagged extinction by facilitating invasions, improving hunter access, eliminating prey, altering biophysical conditions, and increasing inbreeding.

Loss of Biodiversity

•Loss of Pollinators, Increased invasive Loss of Pollinators, Increased invasive species, increased disease risk, loss of species, increased disease risk, loss of economically important species.economically important species.•Only 2.7% of the approximately 1.9 Only 2.7% of the approximately 1.9 million named, extant species have been million named, extant species have been formally evaluated for extinction by the formally evaluated for extinction by the IUCN.IUCN.

•New diseases are emerging at a New diseases are emerging at a "historically unprecedented" rate of "historically unprecedented" rate of one per year. In the last five years one per year. In the last five years alone, WHO has documented more alone, WHO has documented more than 1,100 epidemics including bird than 1,100 epidemics including bird flu, polio and cholera.flu, polio and cholera.•60% of recent EIDs are zoonotic, of 60% of recent EIDs are zoonotic, of those, 71.8% originate in wildlife.those, 71.8% originate in wildlife.

Emerging Infectious Emerging Infectious DiseasesDiseases

Global AgricultureGlobal Agriculture9 Billion people by 2050, 70-100% More Food, 9 Billion people by 2050, 70-100% More Food,

New Growing Middle Class in Brazil, India, New Growing Middle Class in Brazil, India, China, Indonesia. 70% of harvested crops are fed China, Indonesia. 70% of harvested crops are fed to livestock in developed countries.to livestock in developed countries.

101099 ha of Natural Systems will be converted to ha of Natural Systems will be converted to global agriculture. Loss of Natural Ecosystems equal global agriculture. Loss of Natural Ecosystems equal to the US total Area. Losses from Latin American to the US total Area. Losses from Latin American (Cerado, Amazon) and Sub-Saharan Central Africa. (Cerado, Amazon) and Sub-Saharan Central Africa. Loss of 1/3 Remaining tropical and temporate Loss of 1/3 Remaining tropical and temporate forms, savannahs, etc.forms, savannahs, etc.2.7x Phosphorus added, 2.4x Nitrogen, 2.7x 2.7x Phosphorus added, 2.4x Nitrogen, 2.7x Pesticides, Eutrophication has huge impacts on coast Pesticides, Eutrophication has huge impacts on coast waters.waters.Irrigated Area increased by 1.9xIrrigated Area increased by 1.9x

Water ChallengesWater Challenges2.8 billion of the world’s poor – half the developing 2.8 billion of the world’s poor – half the developing world’s total population continue to live without world’s total population continue to live without access to an improved source of drinking water (0.9 access to an improved source of drinking water (0.9 billion) or basic sanitation facility (1.9 billion) as of billion) or basic sanitation facility (1.9 billion) as of 2008.2008.

Unsafe drinking water and poor sanitation account Unsafe drinking water and poor sanitation account for nearly 10 % of the global burden of disease. In for nearly 10 % of the global burden of disease. In developing countries, about 1.6 million children developing countries, about 1.6 million children under the age of five die annual from diarrheal under the age of five die annual from diarrheal diseases caused by unsafe water.diseases caused by unsafe water.

Agriculture. 60-70%+ of water use goes to Agriculture. 60-70%+ of water use goes to Agriculture. Problems of salinity. Worldwide, some Agriculture. Problems of salinity. Worldwide, some 17 percent of agricultural lands are irrigated, 17 percent of agricultural lands are irrigated, producing 40 percent of total cereal productionproducing 40 percent of total cereal production

EnergyEnergy

2.6 billion people in the world, roughly 40%, don’t 2.6 billion people in the world, roughly 40%, don’t have access to reliable electricity.have access to reliable electricity.

Challenge that many of these are present within Challenge that many of these are present within groups of small communities with low population groups of small communities with low population densities. Challenge of economic viability of densities. Challenge of economic viability of operating a utility grid.operating a utility grid.

Question: What happens Question: What happens when the bottom billions when the bottom billions connect to the grid and connect to the grid and want air conditioning?want air conditioning?

Less Developed Countries will have changed from Less Developed Countries will have changed from 2x the population of Developed Countries in 1950, 2x the population of Developed Countries in 1950, to 6x by 2050. to 6x by 2050.

Virtually all the population growth in the next 45 Virtually all the population growth in the next 45 years will be in less developed regions. Half of the years will be in less developed regions. Half of the Global Increase will be in 9 Countries: India, Global Increase will be in 9 Countries: India, Pakistan, Nigeria, DRC, Bangladesh, China, Uganda, Pakistan, Nigeria, DRC, Bangladesh, China, Uganda, Ethiopia, and the US.Ethiopia, and the US.

51 countries or areas, most in the economically 51 countries or areas, most in the economically more developed world, will lose population between more developed world, will lose population between now and 2050.now and 2050.

Shifts to Shifts to Developing World Developing World

2. Democratization of Science2. Democratization of Science

Cost of Whole Genome SequencingCost of Whole Genome Sequencing

•Cost of sequencing the human genome, 13 years, 2.7 billion 1991 dollars.•Cost of sequencing a single genome soon, <$1,000•Complete Genomics is developing a sequencing system that will increase its throughput to 80 genomes per day.

Moore’s Law: The number of Moore’s Law: The number of transistors that can that can be placed inexpensively on an be placed inexpensively on an integrated circuit doubles approximately every two years. doubles approximately every two years.

Cheap StorageCheap Storage

Computing power of the internet – parallel Computing power of the internet – parallel processing processing

The power of computing is increasing exponentially, The power of computing is increasing exponentially, while the cost is decreasing exponentiallywhile the cost is decreasing exponentially

Computing Power (increased power, Computing Power (increased power, decreased cost, exponential) decreased cost, exponential)

 5 Billion Cell phones around the world – they are now gateways to human knowledge, tools to create music and artwork, the are sensors. 

In Africa: It took nearly 20 years to attract the first 100 million subscribersIt took less than 3 years to attract the next 200 million subscribers. Leapfroging. 2012: 13 Million fixed Landlines, 500 M+ mobile phone subscriptions.

 Developing Countries.

In 2000 the developing countries accounted for around one-quarter of the world’s 700m or so mobile phones. By the beginning of 2009 their share had grown to three-quarters of a total which by then had risen to over 4 billion.

Connectivity: MobileConnectivity: Mobile 

Connectivity: InternetConnectivity: Internet 

Increase in Africa: 2,968%, Penetration: 13% World Average: 528%, Penetration: 32%

Crisis Camp Haiti: Random Hacks of KindnessCrisis Camp Haiti: Random Hacks of Kindness

Base layer map for Port Au Prince: This Base layer map for Port Au Prince: This project would create a new collection of project would create a new collection of imagery and a new base map for NGOs imagery and a new base map for NGOs and relief agencies. Post available imagery and relief agencies. Post available imagery to share with the public for open source to share with the public for open source applications. applications.

Family Locators for Quake Victims Faster relief information and data sharing CrisisCamp will brought together domain CrisisCamp will brought together domain

experts, developers, and first responders experts, developers, and first responders around improving technology and practice around improving technology and practice for humanitarian crisis management and for humanitarian crisis management and disaster relief. disaster relief.

•Knowledge and the form of knowledge are Knowledge and the form of knowledge are expanding exponentiallyexpanding exponentially

•Increase in sensors and opportunities for input.Increase in sensors and opportunities for input.•GenomicsGenomics•Remote SensingRemote Sensing

•Amount of Data may be now doubling every 2 Amount of Data may be now doubling every 2 yearsyears•Understand process from patternsUnderstand process from patterns

The Age of Big The Age of Big DataDataNew York Times, Feb. 12, 2012

Data.Worldbank.orgData.Worldbank.org

3D Printers3D Printers

Maker’s Fairs and DIYMaker’s Fairs and DIY

Potential for Decentralization of Potential for Decentralization of ManufacturingManufacturing 

Rethinking Development by Rethinking Development by Leveraging Global KnowledgeLeveraging Global Knowledge

PremisesPremises

• Development has become a living condition where Development has become a living condition where billions of people have access to a few centuries of billions of people have access to a few centuries of human technological progress, but where another human technological progress, but where another few billion people do not.few billion people do not.

• There is an accelerating gulf between those who are There is an accelerating gulf between those who are connected and those who are not.connected and those who are not.

• Challenges are increasingly global, and require Challenges are increasingly global, and require global partnership to address. They are also global partnership to address. They are also opportunities.opportunities.

• Challenges are multidisciplinary and fluidChallenges are multidisciplinary and fluid

• There are great ideas in the developing world. We There are great ideas in the developing world. We need to jointly define the problems and the solutions need to jointly define the problems and the solutions together. This is required for our own economic together. This is required for our own economic growth. growth.

Crowd-Sourcing the WorldCrowd-Sourcing the World

• How do we bring new solvers How do we bring new solvers into development? How do we into development? How do we find new technological solutions find new technological solutions that may exist in other fields.that may exist in other fields.

• How do we better capture How do we better capture existing knowledge and solutions existing knowledge and solutions and apply them to development? and apply them to development? How can we capture indigenous How can we capture indigenous innovation?innovation?

Saving Lives at Birth

A woman dies from

childbirth every 2 minutes

• The onset of labor marks start of high-risk period for mother and baby until at least 48 hours after birth. Each year –

150,000 maternal deaths 1.6 million neonatal deaths 1.2 million stillbirths

• Majority of deaths in low and middle income countries – less than half of these mothers deliver in hospitals

The ChallengeWe seek groundbreaking

ideas that can LEAPFROG

conventional approaches in three areas…technologies.

Roadblock: lack of medical technologies appropriate for the community or clinic setting

Target: bold ideas for science and technology advances that prevent, detect or treat maternal and newborn problems at the time of birth.

service delivery.Roadblock: too few trained, motivated, equipped and properly located health staff and caregivers

Target: bold ideas for new approaches to high-quality care at the time of birth

demand.Roadblock: mothers in resource-

poor settings often lack information about services they

need, what they can do, and benefits from accessing health

care or adopting healthy behaviors.

Target: bold ideas for empowering and engaging pregnant women and

their families

DevelopmentXChange – Overview

Agenda at a Glance

27

Key components

Competition: 75 finalists compete for funding by displaying and explaining project to selection committees (“interview”) (CLOSED)

Innovator Workshops/Networking: Structured discussions/workshops to engage finalists on key challenges (business plan support, M&E, capacity building for scale, BCC, accessing financing, etc.) (CLOSED)

Development Exchange: Innovations displayed in open marketplace; opportunity to network and exchange ideas with finalists, innovators, funders and development experts (OPEN TO PUBLIC)

Award Ceremony/XChange Talks: Series of “TED-like” talks combined with select innovator presentations (INVITATION ONLY)

Three Day Event

Open Source CollaborationOpen Source Collaboration

• Saturday: Saturday: Innovating Innovation: Open Source Successes Innovating Innovation: Open Source Successes for Neglected Diseases and Beyond.for Neglected Diseases and Beyond.

• Give away everything you know, and more will come back Give away everything you know, and more will come back to you.to you.

• Using Open Source Collaboration, Journals, Research design Using Open Source Collaboration, Journals, Research design to create opportunities for participation in resource-poor to create opportunities for participation in resource-poor environment. Clear advantages to allow for faster environment. Clear advantages to allow for faster advancement of fields.advancement of fields.

• How can we use this for promoting knowledge based How can we use this for promoting knowledge based collaborations with the developing world? collaborations with the developing world?

Connecting the UnconnectedConnecting the Unconnected

• Digital Science Libraries (CRDF Global, State, USAID)Digital Science Libraries (CRDF Global, State, USAID)

• Open Access Journals.Open Access Journals.

• Open Data Bases (genetics, biodiversity, remote Open Data Bases (genetics, biodiversity, remote sensing)sensing)

• Real-time Google Earth.Real-time Google Earth.

• I-Tunes UI-Tunes U

• MIT Open CoursewareMIT Open Courseware

• Stanford AI Class (Sebastian Thun & Peter Norvig) – now Stanford AI Class (Sebastian Thun & Peter Norvig) – now through Udacitythrough Udacity

• Grand Challenge for Development: Education & Grand Challenge for Development: Education & AgricultureAgriculture

• Khan Academy: Free world-class education to anyoneKhan Academy: Free world-class education to anyone

122,383, 239 lessons delivered122,383, 239 lessons delivered

Opportunities Global for Scientific Opportunities Global for Scientific PartnershipsPartnerships

• Nature of Science is increasing collaborative as Nature of Science is increasing collaborative as the problems require crossing more disciplines the problems require crossing more disciplines and bringing together more data.and bringing together more data.

• PEER (PEER (www.nas.edu/peer). NSF-USAID. Scaling ). NSF-USAID. Scaling the Bilateral S&T model to 79 developing the Bilateral S&T model to 79 developing countries around the world. (countries around the world. (Drs. Annica Drs. Annica Wayman, Frederico Prado, Mark DoyleWayman, Frederico Prado, Mark Doyle). Almost ). Almost 500 applications, from >50 countries.500 applications, from >50 countries.

• Bilateral S&T Programs: India, Egypt, PakistanBilateral S&T Programs: India, Egypt, Pakistan

A grants program to enhance partnerships between NSF-funded Scientists and their Developing Country Collaborators.

US Scientist receives an NSF award to do research in

country X

Partner scientist in country X applies to USAID for support

to facilitate collaboration.

USAID Award supports in-country scientists, students,

and institutions.

NSF Award supports the research and training of

US Scientists and Students

- PEER will align with areas of joint USAID and NSF priorities.

- USAID leverages NSF investment and merit review.

- Will build research capacity at local institutions.

Partnerships for Enhanced Engagement in Research Partnerships for Enhanced Engagement in Research (PEER) (PEER)

Current Models of Universities (and Science)Current Models of Universities (and Science)

Next Generation CGIARNext Generation CGIAR

• Creative, Open, Multidisciplinary, Entrepreneurial.Creative, Open, Multidisciplinary, Entrepreneurial.

• Universities as laboratories for applying science, Universities as laboratories for applying science, technology, and creativity to development.technology, and creativity to development.

• Universities as incubators.Universities as incubators.

Go to: www.usaid.gov/universitiesGo to: www.usaid.gov/universities

Thank you.Thank you.