"Definitions, sources and measures for internal mobility and secondary migrations: a focus on

Non-EU citizens"

Cinzia Conti, Domenico Gabrielli, Luciana Quattrociocchi, Fabio Massimo Rottino

Joint UNECE/Eurostat Work Session on Migration Statistics(Geneva, 17-19 October 2012)

Migrations and migrants statistics:

TODAY

The availability today of administrative registers containing micro-data completely changes the perspective and the approach for studying internal and international migration, leading also to a reflection on the definition of 'migration'. Both international migrations and internal migrations

THE PAST

Traditional measurements present many limitations related to the type of source that the use of linked data-sets overcomes

Migrations and migrants statisticsTHE PAST

Limitations of traditional measurements

a) they only give information on the “migrations” that give rise to a variation in the POPULATION REGISTER. This is only a share of the global mobility;

b) they show only the MOVEMENTS OCCURRED IN A GIVEN YEAR and not the paths of individuals, and in particular secondary migrations. Actually, for the study of migratory chains and networks it seems particularly useful the analysis of sequences of internal movements in close connection with the international migrations;

c) from the point of view of migration mainstreaming it seems of great interest to understand the differential characteristics of those moving and those who remained on a territory. The traditional sources provide information on those who move, but you can not compare the two different collectives.

Migrations and migrants statisticsPRESENT and FUTURE

Currently some experiments have been conducted using the archive of residence permits, which refers only to non-EU citizens, and other administrative archives regarding integration of immigrants in our country

In this presentation the attention is focused on: a) Internal and international migrations of non-EU citizens studied through record linkage techniques; b) the different propensity to mobility, according to different individual characteristics (sex, age, citizenship, etc.) has been studied through regression models;c) Different form of immigration/presence on a territory. Since foreign immigrants are formally "present" simultaneously in multiple territories, the concept of “presence/residence” on a territory is being studied through record linkage between different administrative sources.

Further perspectives of analysis based on a methodology similar to that used for residence permits have been opened with the acquisition of the municipal registries (micro-data) for EU citizens. In particular, with regard to this specific case, the definition of “immigrant” (particularly long term) could be discussed.•

Integration of data to study integration of migrants

• Integration of information about individuals in a multidimensional perspective

• Opportunity to follow the life of individuals using a longitudinal approach. The best approach to study a multidimensional phenomenon: the integration process

• Opportunity to study the timing of the events

Record linkage

Record linkage: recent experiences

Methods•Deterministic record linkage using tax code as key•Probabilistic record linkage (for residuals)

Residence

permits

Longitudinal Record Linkage RP

Record linkage between RP and Social security notifications

Record linkage between RP and Resident population register

Migration History

Cohort arrived in Italy during 2007

Event: family reunification,

mobility, marriages, fertility, job, ect

.

Integration proce

ss

Survivals at the end of the period

Record linkage for the analysis of internal mobility (longitudinal - using the same source)

• Deterministic linkage (the key used is the tax code, available for 81% of the cases).

• The cohort of new inflows entered in 2007 was followed in time by connecting the archives of residence permits from 2008 to 2012.

• 66.7% of the non-EU citizens entering in 2007 have still a valid permit in 2012

• We have focused the attention on this sub-group to study internal mobility

The 15% of Chinese immigrants have moved twice or more between 2007 and 2012

Migrations statistics trough the linkage between different archives

• Istat is currently developing a project based on the exploitation of different administrative data for the study of the integration of foreigners in Italy in a multidimensional and longitudinal perspective.

• A consequence is the change of perspective: towards a multi-source approach

• Different sources for measuring better the phenomena and for fulfilling the definitions

Data for Regulation 862/2007: definitions

Presently for Regulation 862/2007 Italy provides data derived from municipalities registers trough statistical data collection.

•Article 2.1•… (b) ‘immigration’ means the action by which a person establishes his or her usual residence in the territory of a Member State for a period that is, or is expected to be, of at least 12 months, having previously been usually resident in another Member State or a third country;•(c) ‘emigration’ means the action by which a person, having previously been usually resident in the territory of a Member State, ceases to have his or her usual residence in that Member State for a period that is, or is expected to be, of at least 12 months;…

Traditional sources, definitions and new possibilities

In Italy the duration of stay is presumed on the basis of the fact that people enrolled in the municipalities registers have the intention to stay at least one year in the country.

Some limits: In Italy Eu-citizens have to enroll in the municipalities registers for migrations that last more than 3 months

In theory in the municipalities’ registers data you consider also a Eu-citizen that will stay for 4 monthsAt the same time not all the Eu-citizens enroll themselves in the municipalities registers.

Now are available the individual municipalities registers and using the tax code is possible to realize longitudinal record linkages and linkages among different archives

For example, using a record linkage between individuals municipalities registers and the Social Security register (INPS) archive (2010) you can individuate about 126.300 unregistered Romanians in Municipal population registers (2010).

Time criteria applied for statistics on immigration flows

Sorce: Eurostat

The case of non Eu-citizens and new forms of «mobility»

• Even in the case of non Eu-citizens it is possible to individuate some limits of the traditional source: About 126,900 long-term residents in 2011 - on the basis of residence permits - are not present in the Municipal population registers (2011). Consequently these people are not counted as "immigrants" even if they have been in Italy for more than five years (one year is the period required by the international definitions).

• A first experiment was carried out through a record linkage between the residence permits and archive and the archive of domestic workers and workers employed by the Social Security register (INPS).

Different sources for internal mobility

The linkage among different archives adds information also on internal mobility. For example:

• Considering the first ten citizenships of people entered in Italy in 2007, it turns out that about 17% of people considered (64,046) works in a province other than that in which it was issued the residence permit. The share is more significant for men (23%) than for women (12%) and among young people. The manual workers are also more "mobile" in the area compared to domestic workers and caregivers.

Non Eu-citizens registered in Social Security (first ten citizenships) in a province different from the one of issue/renewal of the residence permit

Final remarks• Administrative data sources are already widely used for migration

statistics, but it seems possible, by developing statistical harmonization and integration strategies, to make a better use of the collected data.

• A starting point to improve the available statistical information about immigrants is the coordination among the statistical institutes and institutions which keep administrative records

• Definitely, a significant contribution to the continuity between administrative files and statistical files about immigrants and migrations is given by the entry into force of Regulation (EC) 862 of 2007, involving, as providers of statistics to Eurostat, both the National Statistical Institutes and the Ministries of Interiors

• On the other hand the European Commission itself has noted that the necessary information for policy planning go far beyond those provided by the Regulation and it was introduced the "Migration Statistical Mainstreaming"

Final remarks• The national statistical institutes should invest resources on harmonization

and integration of information from archives of different institutions for a multi-dimensional interpretation of a complex phenomenon such as that of foreign immigration. Consequently the NIS should play an important role in transforming administrative data in statistics of high quality and in the development and application of statistical definitions (metadata) and methods.

• The data about acquisitions of citizenship (Reg.862/2007, art3) will be provided to Eurostat using a multi-source approach and record linkage techniques, using both administrative data-sets and statistical data collection

• It is essential to reflect on the use of traditional data sources and on the fulfillment of traditional sources to international definitions and renewed complexity of migration.

• Integrate-dissemination: the new web page dedicated to migrations and immigrants will be on line by the end of the year