December, 2020 Millat Tractors Limited (MTL)

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Fortune Securities Limited |Equity Research Millat Tractors Limited (MTL) Agriculture stimulus to play out We initiate coverage on Millat Tractors Limited (MTL) with a BUY stance based on our Jun’21 SOTP Target Price of PKR 1,134/share. Our valuation implies an upside of 10.7% along with a dividend yield of 9.1%; translating into a TSR of 19.8%. The agriculture stimulus is expected to play out in favor of tractor industry underpinned by the conducive policies including reduction in sales tax, subsidy on fertilizers, and increase in wheat support prices. We believe that incumbent government is likely to promote farmer economics and ensure food security by announcing pro-agriculture policies in years leading to General Elections by FY23. Therefore, we expect the tractors demand to recover at a CAGR of 29% by FY23E after suffering a drop of 35% in FY20. MTL, being the market leader, is poised to be the major beneficiary of all these policies. We foresee MTL’s volumes to grow at a CAGR of 29% by FY23E, in-line with industry expectations. MTL trades at a forward PE of 12.1/8.4 for FY21/FY22E and offers a DPS of PKR 93.0 & 134.0 over FY21-22. Our investment case is premised by: Sales tax reduction: Subsidy of PKR 1.5bn on sales tax reduction is expected to bolster MTL volumes by c.17k units in addition to the 10.2k volumes sold already in 4MFY21 Room to enhance penetration: Excessive room in the tractor industry evident from 612,000 operational tractors providing lower Horsepower per acre as compared to international standards Improvement in farmer liquidity: The liquidity of farmers is slated to improve amid the PKR 50bn package announced by government to combat the impact of COVID-19 Expanding footmarks in exports: Cheaper international prices of MTL tractors in international arena broadening its share in exports as witnessed in FY20 where more than 1,000 units were exported Key risks: Major downside risks to our investment thesis includes: i) tightening fiscal space/unfavorable regulatory policies can impede agriculture subsidies, ii) unexpected decline in the agriculture output iii) piling up of sales tax refunds on MTL books can restrict dividend payouts, and iv) more than expected currency devaluation 01 st December, 2020 REP-070 MTL Standalone FY18A FY19A FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E Units sold (units) 42,707 32,018 20,706 30,240 37,823 43,946 Net sales (PKR mn) 38,517 31,144 22,942 36,376 47,526 57,207 Gross margin (%) 21.9% 19.1% 18.5% 20.4% 21.8% 22.4% EBITDA margin (%) 20.4% 16.7% 14.3% 16.5% 18.1% 18.9% Net profit margin (%) 13.8% 11.7% 9.4% 11.6% 12.8% 13.4% EPS (PKR) 120.4 73.0 43.2 84.6 121.7 154.4 DPS (PKR) 120.0 85.0 50.0 93.0 134.0 170.0 Payout ratio (%) 99.6% 116.4% 115.9% 110.0% 110.0% 110.0% Dividend yield (%) 10.8% 10.1% 7.5% 9.1% 13.1% 16.6% PE (x) 9.2 11.5 15.5 12.1 8.4 6.6 PB (x) 8.7 8.7 8.2 10.3 9.2 8.7 ROA (%) 31.7% 26.8% 20.1% 35.7% 41.6% 41.4% Source: Company Accounts, Fortune Research Investment Case Target Price 1,134.3 Stance BUY Key Stats KATS Code MTL Bloomberg Code MTL PA Reuters Code MILM.KA O/S shares (mn) 49.8 Market Cap (PKR'mn) 51,039 Market Cap (US$'mn) 319.0 Avg Daily Vol (000) 43.5 Free Float 45.0% Current Price 1,024.3 Target Price 1,134.3 Upside to TP 10.7% 52 week range (PKR) 1030.0-465.5 Rating BUY Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M Absolute 18.1 24.8 48.7 Relative 14.6 25.7 43.5 52-week Performance Muqeet Naeem [email protected] (+92 21) 35309119 Fortune Securities Limited Head Office 3 rd Floor, Razi Tower, BC-13, Block No. 9, KDA Scheme No. 5 Clifton, Karachi Phone: (92 21) 35309101-09 Fax: (92 21)35309155

Transcript of December, 2020 Millat Tractors Limited (MTL)

Millat Tractors Limited (MTL)
Agriculture stimulus to play out
We initiate coverage on Millat Tractors Limited (MTL) with a BUY stance based
on our Jun’21 SOTP Target Price of PKR 1,134/share. Our valuation implies an
upside of 10.7% along with a dividend yield of 9.1%; translating into a TSR of
19.8%. The agriculture stimulus is expected to play out in favor of tractor
industry underpinned by the conducive policies including reduction in sales tax,
subsidy on fertilizers, and increase in wheat support prices. We believe that
incumbent government is likely to promote farmer economics and ensure food
security by announcing pro-agriculture policies in years leading to General
Elections by FY23. Therefore, we expect the tractors demand to recover at a
CAGR of 29% by FY23E after suffering a drop of 35% in FY20. MTL, being the
market leader, is poised to be the major beneficiary of all these policies. We
foresee MTL’s volumes to grow at a CAGR of 29% by FY23E, in-line with industry
expectations. MTL trades at a forward PE of 12.1/8.4 for FY21/FY22E and offers
a DPS of PKR 93.0 & 134.0 over FY21-22. Our investment case is premised by:
Sales tax reduction: Subsidy of PKR 1.5bn on sales tax reduction is expected to bolster MTL volumes by c.17k units in addition to the 10.2k volumes sold already in 4MFY21
Room to enhance penetration: Excessive room in the tractor industry evident from 612,000 operational tractors providing lower Horsepower per acre as compared to international standards
Improvement in farmer liquidity: The liquidity of farmers is slated to improve amid the PKR 50bn package announced by government to combat the impact of COVID-19
Expanding footmarks in exports: Cheaper international prices of MTL tractors in international arena broadening its share in exports as witnessed in FY20 where more than 1,000 units were exported
Key risks: Major downside risks to our investment thesis includes: i) tightening fiscal space/unfavorable regulatory policies can impede agriculture subsidies, ii) unexpected decline in the agriculture output iii) piling up of sales tax refunds on MTL books can restrict dividend payouts, and iv) more than expected currency devaluation
01st December, 2020
th June, 2015
Units sold (units) 42,707 32,018 20,706 30,240 37,823 43,946
Net sales (PKR mn) 38,517 31,144 22,942 36,376 47,526 57,207
Gross margin (%) 21.9% 19.1% 18.5% 20.4% 21.8% 22.4%
EBITDA margin (%) 20.4% 16.7% 14.3% 16.5% 18.1% 18.9%
Net profit margin (%) 13.8% 11.7% 9.4% 11.6% 12.8% 13.4%
EPS (PKR) 120.4 73.0 43.2 84.6 121.7 154.4
DPS (PKR) 120.0 85.0 50.0 93.0 134.0 170.0
Payout ratio (%) 99.6% 116.4% 115.9% 110.0% 110.0% 110.0%
Dividend yield (%) 10.8% 10.1% 7.5% 9.1% 13.1% 16.6%
PE (x) 9.2 11.5 15.5 12.1 8.4 6.6
PB (x) 8.7 8.7 8.2 10.3 9.2 8.7
ROA (%) 31.7% 26.8% 20.1% 35.7% 41.6% 41.4%
Source: Company Accounts, Fortune Research
Investment Case
Key Stats
Free Float 45.0%
Current Price 1,024.3
Target Price 1,134.3
Rating BUY
Fortune Securities Limited
Head Office 3rd Floor, Razi Tower, BC-13, Block No. 9, KDA Scheme No. 5 Clifton, Karachi Phone: (92 21) 35309101-09 Fax: (92 21)35309155
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Millat Tractors Limited
Valuation
Our SOTP based Jun’21 target price of PKR 1,134/share offers an upside of 10.7% besides a dividend yield of 9.1% from last close translating into TSR of 19.8%.
Key Risks
impede agriculture subsidies
Unexpected decline in the agriculture output
Piling up of sales tax refunds on MTL books can restrict
dividend payouts
Investment Thesis
Sales tax subsidy of PKR 1.5bn is likely to fuel MTL volumes
Pro-agricultural policies including increase in minimum support
prices and fertilizers subsidy
adequate room for growth
Company Profile
Millat Tractors Limited is a public limited company and was
incorporated in Pakistan in 1964 under the Companies Act, 1913
The Company is principally engaged in assembling and
manufacturing of agricultural tractors, implements and multi-
application products
MTL is the market leader in Tractor industry with above 60% of
market share
Shareholding Pattern
Volumes growth FY21 EPS & Target Price
13% 14% 15% 16% 17% FY21E FY22E FY23E FY24E FY25E TP
2.00% 1,259 1,164 1,084 1,016 957 30.00% 78.3 112.7 143.1 116.2 94.8 1,001
2.50% 1,296 1,194 1,109 1,036 974 35.00% 81.4 117.2 148.7 120.8 98.7 1,039
Growth 3.00% 1,337 1,227 1,134 1,059 993 Growth 40.00% 84.6 121.7 154.4 125.4 111.9 1,134
3.50% 1,382 1,263 1,165 1,083 1,013 45.00% 87.7 131.1 160.1 130 116.1 1,182
4.00% 1,432 1,303 1,197 1,109 1,035 50.00% 90.9 135.8 165.7 139.9 120.4 1,230
Source: Company Accounts, Fortune Research
Dividend Discount Model FY21E FY22E FY23E FY24E FY25E
Adjusted DPS (PKR)* 93 130 163 131 118
PV of DPS 93 113 124 87 68
Terminal value 1,028
Entity PKR/s hhh
% Methodology Equity held % held % PV of DPS 484 42.7%
PV of Terminal Value 592 52.2% Firm value 1,076 94.9% DDM Hyundai Nishat Motors 41 3.6% Sustainable ROE 18.00%
Millat Industrial Products 2 0.1% Sustainable ROE 64.09%
Millat Equipment Limited 4 0.4% Sustainable ROE 45.00%
TIPEG Intertrade DMCC 1 0.1% Book value 75.00%
Bolan Castings Limited 8 0.7% Market price 46.26%
Balochistan Wheels Limited 2 0.2% Market price 9.62%
SOTP value 1,134 100.0% Source: Company Accounts, Fortune Research, *Adjusted DPS (ex. Subsidiaries div income)
CAPM
Millat Tractors Limited
Fortune Securities Limited |Equity Research
Government subsidies enhance tractor sales
Tractor volumes have always been influenced by government policies. The industry
touched its peak demand of c.70k units in FY10 and FY18, the former was due to the
cash subsidy of PKR 200k each on 30,000 tractors, whereas, the latter was achieved
on account of pro-agriculture policies announced by government along with Sindh
Tractor Scheme (cash subsidy of PKR 200-300k each on 6,200 tractors).
The demand of tractors has declined sharply in the last couple of years owing to lack
of focus of authorities towards improvement on farmers’ economics and tight fiscal
space. However, the recent measures of GST reduction on tractors, increase in wheat
support price, and fertilizer subsidy are likely to bring about a prosperous agriculture
outlook and promises potential tractor demand growth of 40% in FY21, in our view.
Duopolistic structure of the market
Tractor industry is mainly dominated by two heavyweight players, Millat Tractor
(MTL) and Al-Ghazi Tractors (AGTL), having a total annual capacity of 90,000 units on
double shift basis and capturing more than 99% of market share (as per PAMA
reported numbers). Alongside, a few other players such as Orient IMT tractors,
Belarus Tractors, John Deere, and imported tractors are also hunting for their spot in
the market.
MTL commands a strong presence in the agricultural fraternity of Punjab having more
than 60% market share of total industry, whereas, AGTL is the preferred choice in
Sindh districts. This duopoly structure effectively sets up barriers of entry for any
other player to gain a foothold and simultaneously allows them to easily pass-on any
cost hike, ensuring sustainable margin over the years without any fear of losing in
market share. As a matter of fact, MTL raised its prices by 9% in FY19 which was
followed by further 12% hike in FY20 to support its margins to a certain extent amid
the outbreak of currency devaluation.
Source: PAMA, Fortune Research
Year Schemes Govt Units
FY16 Sindh scheme Sindh Not mentioned 3,216
FY18 Sindh scheme Sindh 200,000-300,000 6,200
Source: Newspaper articles, Fortune Research
Tractor demand takes steam
from the government subsidies
enter in the marker
Millat Tractors Limited
High localization keeps currency risk under control
In 1980s, the government decided on indigenization of tractors and assigned this task
to Pakistan Tractor Corporation which was then later transferred to Millat Tractors.
They undertook the responsibility of setting up assembly plant & facilities and
achieved it within a year. Today, the tractor industry has an indigenization level of
above 90% which shields their margin to a considerable extent against currency risk,
however, most of the base raw material for local components is subsequently
imported by vendors, hence the exposure to currency devaluation still persists. PKR
depreciated sharply by 16% in FY18 and 34% in FY19 against the greenback, the
impact of this development was witnessed with a lag in the gross margins in
subsequent years, but not as significant as observed in the case of mainstream OEMs.
Seasonality in tractor volumes
Tractor accounts for most of the farm modernization practices in Pakistan. In a
ploughing or tilling process, tractors are widely used to loosen the soil in initial
agriculture practices before the sowing of seeds. The demand for tractors takes
steam during the months of Apr-Jun which is attributable to i) Kharif: the first sowing
season, begins in April-June in which seeds are sown for major crops including
Cotton, Sugarcane, Rice, and Maize; and ii) Rabi harvesting season also takes place in
Apr-May in which major cultivated crops are Wheat, Gram and Tobacco.
Source: PAMA, Fortune Research
Millat variants localization
Gross margin % - Currency devaluation %
against forex risk
Apr-Jun due to i) Kharif sowing
season, and ii) Rabi harvesting
season
Millat Tractors Limited
Fortune Securities Limited |Equity Research
This phenomenon is also explained graphically by plotting the monthly sales from
FY08-20, exhibiting strong demand in the months of Apr-Jun.
Run-up to elections triggers demand
Historically, tractor volumes have gained traction from the government’s efforts
taken in the run-up to General Elections. In 2013, the sinking volumes during the year
were aided by the cash subsidy of PKR 200k each on 10,000 tractors under Green
Tractor Scheme. Similarly, in previous election year, the agronomy attained its boom
stemming from conducive agriculture package announced by the government which
led agriculture growth to peak at 4% during the year. Considering the past trend, we
have projected tractor volumes to grow at a 3yr-CAGR of 29% to revive its peak of
c.70k units in FY23.
As witnessed in the year subsequent to General Elections, the volumes declined
significantly by 34% and 29% in FY14 and FY19, respectively. Therefore, we expect
the volumes to decline to c.52k units by FY25 which is the average volumetric
demand of last 13 years.
Source: PAMA, Fortune Research
Source: PAMA, Fortune Research
Forecasted industry volumes (units)
Run-up year to General
Elections bolsters the demand
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Millat Tractors Limited
More room for growth
In Pakistan, agriculture accounts for 19% of GDP and employs 38.5% of total labor
force. In spite of the enormous importance of this sector, it has been neglected in
terms of modern agriculture practices and farm mechanization. Currently, the
number of operational tractors in Pakistan is hovering around 612,000 units, which
translates into per acre availability of 0.9 horsepower (HP) against international
norms of 1.4 HP per acre (source: Economic Survey). This demonstrates the true
potential for growth to add more HPs in farm mechanization to be in-line with the
international norms. The lower HP availability in Pakistan emanates from the land
fragmentation, which is evident from the fact that average farm size in Pakistan is
nearly 2.5 acres that accounts for 85% of total land holding.
Expected improvement in farmer’s income
The government announced the relief package of PKR 1.2tn to combat the impact of
COVID-19, out of which PKR 50bn was allocated for the agriculture sector. Some of
the important policies are:
i) Sales tax reduction; a trigger to bolster demand
Sales tax was not implemented on tractor industry until FY10 but the enforcement of
input tax on tractor components which was not refunded timely by government
created a liquidity crunch for tractor manufacturers. Eventually, a 17% sales tax was
introduced on tractors in FY11 which was eventually pulled down to 10% in FY13
before jumping back to 16% in FY14, dwindling the tractor sales by 34% in FY14. The
reduction of sales tax in FY17 from 10% to 5% was an imperative measure which led
volumes to grow at a 2yr-CAGR of 44% (FY16-18). Government’s subsidy of PKR 1.5bn
on the reduction of sales tax from 5% to 0% for the current year has been approved
recently on 23 Nov’20 which is likely to be a key trigger in demand growth, going
forward.
As per our calculations, we believe that PKR 1.5bn subsidy would bolster the industry
volumes by c.25k-26k units. MTL having a market share of more than 60% can share
up to c.17k units in addition to the 10.2k units sold already in 4MFY21.
Source: Newspaper articles, Fortune Research
Sales tax %
against international norms of
growth
c.25-26k units in FY21
Millat Tractors Limited
input costs is likely to improve
the disposable income of
ii) Subsidies on input costs
The subsidy allocated on fertilizers was around PKR 32-37.5bn out of the total PKR
50bn package. Recently, the announcement of DAP subsidy of PKR 1,000/bag would
substantially abate cost pressures of farmers. Previously in FY17, a similar package
announced on DAP of PKR 300/bag and a minimal amount on urea, which improved
the farmer economics in the past, and the impact was also witnessed on the soaring
tractor volumes. It is pertinent to note that cost of fertilizer in the cultivation of crop
constitutes in the bandwidth of 15-20%.
Besides the subsidies on fertilizers, the relief would also be given to farmers in the
cost of pesticides, better quality of seeds, and subsidized rate of electricity for
tubewells.
iii) Boosting support prices of major crops
Support prices of crops have recently been considered by the government for the
crushing season of FY21. Wheat prices are increased to the tune of PKR 250/bag to
stand at PKR 1,650/bag. Uplift in the support prices can potentially substitute import
of wheat, incentivizing farmers to produce more wheat to cater the demand of 25mn
tons per annum.
Sugarcane, a cash crop for Pakistan, also witnessed price hike to a mild extent to PKR
200/bag. With a lucrative increase in the per kg/hec yield of sugarcane by 5.5% in
FY20 as well as increase in support price would likely increase the disposable income
of farmers.
Wheat and sugarcane support
prices increased to PKR
1,650/bag and PKR 200/bag,
Millat Tractors Limited
Premium geographical location helps expand market share
MTL, a brand of Massey Ferguson, ensures quality products and offers a wide variety
of variants in a range of 50 HP to 85 HP tractors. Being situated in the agriculture-
centric province of Punjab, the company has majorly captured the agriculture
districts of the province. MTL expanded its market share significantly from 50% in
FY09 to 63% in FY20. The company has touched its peak volumes of c.42k units in
FY11 and FY18 in-line with the industry peak.
Going forward, we expect the volumes to grow at a 3yr-CAGR of 29% to achieve its
new peak of c.44k units by FY23 (below the capacity constraints of 45,000 units)
before declining to sustainable level of c.33k units by FY25. It is pertinent to mention
that during 4MFY21, the market share of MTL enhanced even further to 67.2% but
we assume market share to remain in a bandwidth of 62-64% over our forecast
horizon.
Lucrative payout ratio
MTL is one of the highest dividend yielding stock listed on KSE 100 index with a 3yr
average dividend yield of 9.4% and an average payout ratio of 111% for the last 5
years. The demand & supply balance in tractor industry leaves no gap for expansion,
therefore, all of the earnings of tractor players are distributed to their shareholders
translating into an alluring dividend yield of 9.1% for FY21.
Source: Company Accounts, Fortune Research
Dividend Yield %
EPS & DPS – Payout ratio %
MTL market share expanded
from 50% to 63%
highest dividend yielding stocks
listed on KSE 100
Product mix % in 9MFY20
Forecasted MTL volumes (units)
Millat Tractors Limited
Broadening footprint in construction sector and exports
MTL has expanded its footprint in the construction sector besides its primary focus
on agriculture which is evident from the fact that around 20-30% of their volumes
stem from the construction sector. With an improving outlook of construction &
related activities and taking proxy from the 4MFY21 cement local sales growth of
18% YoY, we expect this development is likely to bode well for the MTL as well.
The exposure of MTL is also widening in the exports and it has sold more than 1,000
units of tractors in Afghanistan and African markets during FY20. Higher localization
level keeps the prices of Pakistani tractors lower as compared to the regional players
which gives them competitive advantage in international arena.
Release of sales tax refunds improved liquidity
The input tax on tractor components accounts for 17%, whereas the output tax on
tractors was 5% since FY17 before reducing it to 0% on 23 Nov’20. The dissimilarity
between both the taxes piles up sales tax refunds on MTL books, resulting in a
liquidity problem to finance their working capital requirements in past. However,
during the last quarter of FY20, the FBR has released refund to the tune of PKR 2bn
to support the industry in combating with COVID-19.
Moreover, the seasonality factor also come into effect in 4QFY20 and gave some
respite to 9MFY20 profitability, proving to be the best quarter for the year in spite of
the lockdown nationwide. During 1QFY21, the refund has started to pile up again and
it would further expand on account of reduction in sales tax but it can be
compensated by the increasing advances on the back of elevating volumes (lead time
for delivery is around 5-6 weeks), giving some respite to working capital requirement,
going forward.
Diversification through investment in Hyundai
MTL’s ownership in Hyundai, a South Korean player, partnered with Nishat group
under the umbrella of Hyundai Nishat Motors is one of the few players who started
commercial production in Pakistan after achieving the greenfield status successfully
in the ADP policy 2016-21. They have commenced their production with Hyundai
Porter H-100 in Jan’20 and recently launched Hyundai Tucson, an SUV, in Aug’20
which is exhibiting strong demand and the lead time of their SUV is around 6 months.
The overwhelming response from the market was above expectations leading to
extension in delivery times. The company is going to expand its footprint in premium
SUV segment by launching Hyundai Elantra and Hyundai Santa Fe in near future.
We have incorporated the value of Hyundai in our target price at PKR 41/share based
on our methodology of sustainable ROE
Regional comparison of tractor prices
Countries Company HP Model Prices in USD
Pakistan Millat Tractor 50 MF 240 5,919
Millat Tractor 50 MF 350 plus 6,353
India Mahindara Tractor 50 Arjun International 9,932
Indo Farm 50 3048 DI 4WD 10,811
Srilanka Brown & Company 40 MFWD 6,900
Source: Fortune Research
to enhance volumetric sales
4QFY20 improved the liquidity
fuel more value to the overall
company’s target price
Millat Tractors Limited
Company Financials
Standalone Income Statement (PKR mn) FY18A FY19A FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E
Net sales 38,517 31,144 22,942 36,376 47,526 57,207
Cost of sales 30,082 25,198 18,697 28,960 37,155 44,413
Gross profit 8,435 5,946 4,246 7,417 10,371 12,794
Distribution and marketing exp. 630 579 568 746 919 1,108
Administrative expenses 492 446 448 585 700 802
Operating profit 7,313 4,921 3,230 6,086 8,752 10,884
Other operating expenses 577 597 296 442 634 801
Other Income 1,046 800 254 265 378 670
EBIT 7,782 5,125 3,187 5,908 8,497 10,754
D&A 85 84 87 87 85 84
EBITDA 7,867 5,209 3,274 5,995 8,581 10,838
Finance cost 2 42 218 4 4 4
PBT 7,780 5,083 2,970 5,903 8,492 10,750
Taxation 2,446 1,445 819 1,688 2,429 3,057
PAT 5,334 3,638 2,151 4,215 6,063 7,693
EPS 120.4 73.0 43.2 84.6 121.7 154.4
DPS 120.0 85.0 50.0 93.0 134.0 170.0
Payout ratio 99.6% 116.4% 115.9% 110.0% 110.0% 110.0%
Standalone Balance Sheet (PKR mn) FY18A FY19A FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E
Fixed assets 727 735 725 719 716 714
Long term loans & investment 968 1,642 2,298 2,298 2,298 2,298
Other non-current assets - 232 - - - -
Total non-current assets 1,695 2,610 3,023 3,017 3,014 3,011
Current assets (ex. Cash & STI) 7,088 7,112 6,062 6,558 7,882 8,640
Cash & equivalents 7,788 852 1,719 3,262 5,389 9,262
Total current assets 14,876 7,964 7,782 9,820 13,272 17,903
TOTAL ASSETS 16,571 10,574 10,805 12,837 16,286 20,914
Share capital 443 443 498 498 498 498
Reserves 5,212 4,390 3,574 4,450 5,058 5,351
Total shareholder's equity 5,655 4,833 4,072 4,949 5,556 5,849
Non-current liabilities 94 13 332 261 223 223
Trade and other payables 1,493 2,498 2,848 3,174 3,563 4,259
Advances from customers 8,917 2,773 3,121 3,986 6,510 10,188
Other current liabilities 412 457 432 467 433 396
Total liabilities 10,917 5,741 6,733 7,888 10,730 15,065
TOTAL LIABILITIES & EQUITY 16,571 10,574 10,805 12,837 16,286 20,914
Cash flows statement (PKR mn) FY18A FY19A FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E
Net cash from operating activities 4,646 (1,395) 3,933 4,995 7,730 11,392
Net cash from investing activities (272) (999) (499) (81) (82) (82)
Net cash from financing activities (5,366) (4,541) (2,566) (3,372) (5,521) (7,437)
Net increase/(decrease) in cash flows (991) (6,936) 867 1,542 2,128 3,873
Source: Company Accounts, Fortune Research
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Millat Tractors Limited
Fortune Securities Limited |Equity Research
Analyst Certification The research analyst on the cover of this report certifies that: 1) all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; 2) no part of any of the research analyst’s compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) expressed by the research analyst(s) in this report; 3) he/she does not have a financial interest in any and all of the subject securities or issuers aggregating more than 1% of the value of the company(s); 4) he/she or its close relative has not served as a director/officer/associate in the past three years in any and all of the subject securities or issuers; 5) he/she or its close relative has received any compensation from any and all of the subject securities or issuers in the previous 12 months; and 6) he/she has not traded in the subject security(ies) or issuer(s) in the past 7 trading days and will not trade in the next 5 trading days of issuing a coverage initiation or a material Target Price revision report.
Acronyms bps basis points LCY Local Currency BVPS Book Value per share MRP Market risk premium CAGR Compounded Annual Growth Rate NAV Net Asset Value CAPM Capital Asset Pricing Model NPV Net Present Value DCF Discounted Cash Flow PB Price-to-Book Value DDM Discounted Dividend Model PCF Price-to-cash flow DE Debt-to-Equity PE Price-to-Earnings DPS Dividend per share PKR Pakistani Rupee DY Dividend yield ppt percentage point EPS Earnings per share PS Price-to-Sales EUR Euro PV Present Value EV Enterprise Value RFR Risk-free rate EVA Economic Value Added RI Residual Income FCF Free Cash Flow ROA Return on Assets FCFE Free Cash Flow to Equity ROE Return on Equity FCFF Free Cash Flow to Firm SOTP Sum Of The Parts FCY Foreign Currency TP Target Price g Growth TSR Total Stock Return IRR Internal Rate of Return USD US Dollars JPBV Justified Price-to-Book Value WACC Weighted average cost of capital
Disclosure The investment recommendation(s) take into account both risk and expected return. FSL based the long-term Target Price estimate on fundamental analysis of the subject security(ies)’s future prospects, after having taken perceived risks into consideration. FSL have conducted extensive research to arrive at the investment recommendation(s) and target price(s) for the subject security (ies). Readers should understand that financial projection(s), target price estimate(s) and statement(s) regarding future prospects may or may not be realized. Forward looking statement(s), opinion(s) and estimate(s) included in this report constitute FSL’s judgment as of this date and are subject to change without prior notice. The target price(s) stated in reports on company update(s), initiation(s) and corporate action adjustment(s) of stocks listed on the PSX are on a 12-month basis. All other reports on PSX-listed securities, such as scoops, sector or company commentaries, do not include, denote, or imply any changes to target price(s). Disclaimer The research report prepared by Fortune Securities Limited (hereinafter referred as FSL) are based on public information and the report is for information purposes only and does not constitute nor it is intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of security(ies) or other financial instruments. FSL makes every effort to use reliable, comprehensive information, but it makes no representation that the information contained herein is accurate or complete. Facts and views presented in this report have not been reviewed by and may not reflect information known to professionals in other business areas of FSL or any of its associated entities. FSL has established information barriers between business groups and associations maintaining complete independence of this research report. This report is not intended to provide personal investment advice nor does it provide individually tailored investment advice. This report does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation/financial circumstances and the particular needs of any specific person. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in financial instruments and implementing investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. FSL recommends that investors independently evaluate particular investments and strategies and it encourages investors to seek the advice of a financial advisor. FSL has taken all reasonable care to ensure that the information contained herein is accurate, up to date, and complies with all Pakistani legislations. However, no liability can be accepted for any errors or omissions, or for any loss resulting from the use of the information provided as any data and research material provided ahead of an investment decision are for information purposes only. We shall not be liable for any errors in the provision of this information, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon. Copyright and confidentiality No part of this document may be reproduced without the written permission of FSL. The information within this research report must not be disclosed to any other person if and until FSL has made the information publicly available.
Key risks Tightening fiscal space can impede agricultural subsidies Unexpected decline in the agriculture output Piling up of sales tax refunds on MTL books can restrict dividend
payouts More than expected currency devaluation
Valuation Methodology To arrive at period-end Target Price(s), FSL uses different valuation methodologies: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF, DDM) Relative Valuation (PE, PB, PS, PCF) Equity and Asset return based methodologies (EVA, RI, etc.)
Rating
BUY TSR > 15% HOLD -10% > TSR > 15% SELL TSR < -10% NR Not Rated
TSR = Capital gain + DY Old Rating Overweight TSR > 15% Marketweight 0% > TSR > 15% Underweight TSR < 0%
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Millat Tractors Limited
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Arvind Anand
Muqeet Naeem