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Transcript of Debating the Causes of WW1 – 3 Puzzles, 3 Levels Volusia County PS 2012 Workshop Gary Armstrong,...
Debating the Causes of Debating the Causes of WW1 – 3 Puzzles, 3 WW1 – 3 Puzzles, 3
LevelsLevels
Volusia County PSVolusia County PS2012 Workshop2012 Workshop
Gary Armstrong, Ph.D.Gary Armstrong, Ph.D.William Jewell CollegeWilliam Jewell College
Causes of World War ICauses of World War IA.A. Why 1914 MattersWhy 1914 MattersB.B. Incomplete ExplanationsIncomplete Explanations
A chauffeurA chauffeur’’s wrong turn?s wrong turn? A withered arm?A withered arm? Arms Race?Arms Race? Thinking War was Impossible?Thinking War was Impossible? What Causes War? What Causes War? ““3 Lenses3 Lenses””
C.C. 33rdrd Lens: Rise of German Power Lens: Rise of German Power Effects of German power: Rigid AlliancesEffects of German power: Rigid Alliances The Schlieffen Plan (& Forster Thesis)The Schlieffen Plan (& Forster Thesis)
D.D. 22ndnd Lens: Domestic Crises Lens: Domestic Crises Crises within Multinational EmpiresCrises within Multinational Empires Fischer ThesisFischer Thesis
E.E. 11stst Lens: Ideas Lens: IdeasF.F. Learning from 1914 – Competing TheoriesLearning from 1914 – Competing Theories
““Motives TheoryMotives Theory”” & & ““Accidental WarAccidental War”” (& Levy (& Levy’’s Preference Scheme)s Preference Scheme) ““Spiral TheorySpiral Theory”” (& Turn the Army Around!) (& Turn the Army Around!) ““Deterrence TheoryDeterrence Theory”” (& Britain as Missing Deterer) (& Britain as Missing Deterer) ““Cult of the OffensiveCult of the Offensive”” (and Red Pants!) (and Red Pants!)
Great War BasicsGreat War Basics
1914-19181914-1918Central Powers vs. AlliesCentral Powers vs. AlliesDead: 9 Million military, 7 million civilianDead: 9 Million military, 7 million civilianFirstsFirsts– Use of chemical weaponsUse of chemical weapons– Mass attacks on civilians from airMass attacks on civilians from air– Genocide Genocide – Immobile FrontImmobile Front– US in European WarUS in European War
Widespread Collapse & Social ExhaustionWidespread Collapse & Social ExhaustionNew World ComingNew World Coming
““The lamps are going out all The lamps are going out all over Europe. We shall not over Europe. We shall not
see them lit again in our see them lit again in our lifetime.lifetime.””
Sir Edward Grey,Sir Edward Grey,
British Foreign British Foreign Secretary, 1905-1916Secretary, 1905-1916
1862-19331862-1933
Niall FergusonNiall Ferguson
No persuasive evidence that No persuasive evidence that Germany intended to Germany intended to ““conquer conquer the worldthe world””
GermanyGermany’’s September 1914 s September 1914 Program would have created Program would have created German-dominated customs German-dominated customs unionunion
ThatThat’’s what we have today – 90 s what we have today – 90 years later!years later!
The ChauffeurThe Chauffeur’’s Faults Fault
Kaiser Wilhelm IIKaiser Wilhelm II1959-19411959-1941
reign 1888-1918reign 1888-1918
Psychological Psychological Pathologies?Pathologies?
The Naval The Naval RevolutionRevolution
HMS HMS DreadnoughtDreadnought
19071907
Irrational Arms Race?Irrational Arms Race?
Dreadnought schemaDreadnought schema
Naval Strength, 1914Naval Strength, 1914
CountryCountry PersonnelPersonnel Major Warships Major Warships DreadnoughtsDreadnoughts
RussiaRussia 54,000 54,000 44
FranceFrance 68,000 68,000 1010
BritainBritain 209,000209,000 2929 2020
GermanyGermany 79,000 79,000 1717 1313
A-HA-H 16,000 16,000 3 3
Confidence that Globalization Confidence that Globalization wonwon’’t let it happent let it happen
Economist, Economist, 10/9710/97
War is not rational – War is not rational – Norman AngellNorman Angell
Norman AngellNorman Angell1872-19671872-1967Nobel Peace Prize, 1933Nobel Peace Prize, 1933Read MillRead Mill’’s s ““Essay on LibertyEssay on Liberty”” at age 12 at age 12Great IllusionGreat Illusion, 1910, 1910““……military and political power give a military and political power give a nation no commercial advantage, that nation no commercial advantage, that it is an economic impossibility for one it is an economic impossibility for one nation to seize or destroy the wealth nation to seize or destroy the wealth of another, or for one nation to enrich of another, or for one nation to enrich itself by subjugating another.itself by subjugating another.””
Kenneth WaltzKenneth Waltz
Emeritus Professor, UC Emeritus Professor, UC BerkeleyBerkeleyMost cited Neo-Realist Most cited Neo-Realist Man, The State, & WarMan, The State, & War (1959) (1959)Theory of International PoliticsTheory of International Politics (1979)(1979)Spread of Nuclear Weapons: Spread of Nuclear Weapons: Would More Be Better?Would More Be Better? (1995) (1995)
What Causes War?What Causes War?Waltz & 3 ImagesWaltz & 3 Images
First Image: Nature of man First Image: Nature of man – Augustine, Reinhold NiebuhrAugustine, Reinhold Niebuhr– Waltz: Why This DoesnWaltz: Why This Doesn’’t Workt Work
Second Image: Defects in RegimesSecond Image: Defects in Regimes– Woodrow Wilson, LeninWoodrow Wilson, Lenin– The Liberal Democratic PeaceThe Liberal Democratic Peace– Waltz: Why This DoesnWaltz: Why This Doesn’’t Workt Work
Third Image: Structure of World PoliticsThird Image: Structure of World Politics– Anarchy & Security DilemmasAnarchy & Security Dilemmas
Rise of German PowerRise of German PowerIndustrial Power (UK 1900 = 100)Industrial Power (UK 1900 = 100)
CountryCountry18801880 19001900 19131913 19281928UKUK 73.373.3 [100][100] 127.2127.2 135135USAUSA 46.946.9 127.8127.8 298.1298.1 533533GermanyGermany 27.427.4 71.271.2 137.7137.7 214214FranceFrance 25.125.1 36.836.8 57.357.3 7474RussiaRussia 24.524.5 47.547.5 76.676.6 7272A-HA-H 1414 25.625.6 40.740.7 ----ItalyItaly 8.18.1 13.613.6 22.522.5 3737JapanJapan 7.67.6 1313 25.125.1 4545
Source: Kennedy, Source: Kennedy, Rise & Fall of the Rise & Fall of the Great PowersGreat Powers
Rise of German Power: Rise of German Power: Military ManpowerMilitary Manpower
CountryCountry18801880 18901890 19001900 19141914
RussiaRussia 791k791k 677k677k 1.16 M1.16 M 1.35 M1.35 M
FranceFrance 543k543k 542k542k 715k715k 910k910k
GermanyGermany 426k426k 504k504k 694k694k 891k891k
UKUK 367k367k 420k420k 624k624k 532k532k
A-HA-H 246k246k 346k346k 385k385k 444k444k
ItalyItaly 216k216k 284k284k 255k255k 345k345k
USAUSA 34k34k 39k39k 127k127k 164k164kSource: Kennedy, Source: Kennedy, Rise & Fall of the Rise & Fall of the Great PowersGreat Powers
Rise of German Power:Rise of German Power:Population (in millions)Population (in millions)
CountryCountry 18901890 19001900 19101910 19131913
RussiaRussia116.8116.8 135.6135.6 159.3159.3 175.1175.1
USAUSA 62.6 62.6 75.9 75.9 91.9 91.9 97.1 97.1
GermanyGermany 49.2 49.2 56.0 56.0 65.5 65.5 66.9 66.9
A-HA-H 42.6 42.6 46.7 46.7 50.8 50.8 52.1 52.1
FranceFrance 38.3 38.3 38.9 38.9 39.5 39.5 39.7 39.7
UKUK 37.3 37.3 41.1 41.1 44.9 44.9 45.6 45.6
Source: Kennedy, Source: Kennedy, Rise & Fall of the Rise & Fall of the Great PowersGreat Powers
Rise of German PowerRise of German PowerUrbanization (%)Urbanization (%)
CountryCountry 18901890 19001900 19131913
UKUK 29.929.9 32.832.8 34.634.6
USAUSA 15.315.3 18.718.7 23.123.1
GermanyGermany 11.311.3 15.515.5 21.121.1
FranceFrance 11.711.7 13.313.3 14.814.8
A-HA-H 5.6 5.6 6.6 6.6 8.8 8.8
RussiaRussia 3.6 3.6 4.8 4.8 7.0 7.0
Source: Kennedy, Source: Kennedy, Rise & Fall of the Rise & Fall of the Great PowersGreat Powers
Alliance System, 1914Alliance System, 1914
Building an Building an ententeentente
1904: France & UK begin conversations1904: France & UK begin conversations
1905: Russia nearly collapses1905: Russia nearly collapses
1907: France, Russia, UK form 1907: France, Russia, UK form entente entente cordialecordiale
Building: Another WayBuilding: Another Way
Wilson: How many Wilson: How many British troops do you British troops do you need if Germany need if Germany attacks?attacks?
Foch: One. And we Foch: One. And we will see to it that he is will see to it that he is killed.killed.– 19101910
General General Henry Henry WilsonWilson
General General Ferdinand Ferdinand FochFoch
Count Alfred von SchlieffenCount Alfred von Schlieffen1833-19131833-1913
The Schlieffen PlanThe Schlieffen Plan
German TimetableGerman Timetable
Liege open by Liege open by M+12M+12
Brussels by M+19Brussels by M+19 French frontier on French frontier on
M+22M+22 Thionville-St. Thionville-St.
Quentin by M+31Quentin by M+31 Paris by M+39Paris by M+39
1219
2231
39
Mobilization ChronologyMobilization Chronology
6/286/28 Assassination of Archduke Franz FerdinandAssassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand
7/237/23 AH ultimatum to SerbiaAH ultimatum to Serbia
7/257/25 Russia begins pre-mobilizationRussia begins pre-mobilization
7/267/26 Russia issues Russia issues ““period preparatory to warperiod preparatory to war”” alertalert””
7/287/28 AH declares war on Serbia, begins AH declares war on Serbia, begins mobilizationmobilization
7/297/29 Russia begins partial mobilization, then Russia begins partial mobilization, then general mobilization, then cancels general mobilization, then cancels mobilizationmobilization
Mobilization ChronologyMobilization Chronology7/307/30 Russia orders general mobilization (1700)Russia orders general mobilization (1700)7/317/31 Germany learns of Russian mobilization (1200)Germany learns of Russian mobilization (1200)7/317/31 German German ““Danger of WarDanger of War”” alert (1300)alert (1300)7/317/31 German ultimatum to Russia to stop mobilizationGerman ultimatum to Russia to stop mobilization7/317/31 French mobilization, 10 km withdrawalFrench mobilization, 10 km withdrawal8/18/1 German mobilization (1700)German mobilization (1700)8/18/1 Germany declares war on Russia (1900)Germany declares war on Russia (1900)8/28/2 German invasion of LuxembourgGerman invasion of Luxembourg8/28/2 British Cabinet orders Royal British Cabinet orders Royal
Navy to protect English ChannelNavy to protect English Channel8/28/2 German ultimatum to Belgium German ultimatum to Belgium
(1900)(1900)8/38/3 UK orders army mobilizationUK orders army mobilization8/38/3 Germany declares war on FranceGermany declares war on France8/48/4 Germany invades Belgium (0802)Germany invades Belgium (0802)
Causes of World War ICauses of World War IA.A. What 1914 MattersWhat 1914 MattersB.B. Incomplete ExplanationsIncomplete Explanations
A chauffeurA chauffeur’’s wrong turn?s wrong turn? A withered arm?A withered arm? Arms Race?Arms Race? Thinking War was Impossible?Thinking War was Impossible?
C.C. 33rdrd Image: Rise of German Power Image: Rise of German Power Effects of German power: Rigid AlliancesEffects of German power: Rigid Alliances The Schlieffen Plan (& Forster Thesis)The Schlieffen Plan (& Forster Thesis)
D.D. 22ndnd Image: Domestic Crises Image: Domestic Crises Crises within Multinational EmpiresCrises within Multinational Empires Fischer ThesisFischer Thesis
E.E. 11stst Image: Ideas Image: IdeasF.F. Learning from 1914 – Competing TheoriesLearning from 1914 – Competing Theories
““Motives TheoryMotives Theory”” & & ““Accidental WarAccidental War”” (& Levy (& Levy’’s Preference Scheme)s Preference Scheme) ““Spiral TheorySpiral Theory”” (& Turn the Army Around!) (& Turn the Army Around!) ““Deterrence TheoryDeterrence Theory”” (& Britain as Missing Deterer) (& Britain as Missing Deterer) ““Cult of the OffensiveCult of the Offensive”” (and Red Pants!) (and Red Pants!)
Austria-HungaryAustria-Hungary
Head of State: Kaiser Franz-Head of State: Kaiser Franz-Josef I (r 1848-1916)Josef I (r 1848-1916)Population: 52 MPopulation: 52 MFederal EmpireFederal EmpireLanguages: 24% German, Languages: 24% German, 20% Hungarian, 13% Czech, 20% Hungarian, 13% Czech, 10% Polish, 8% Ruthenian, 10% Polish, 8% Ruthenian, 6% Romanian, 5% Croat, 5% 6% Romanian, 5% Croat, 5% Slovene, 3% ItalianSlovene, 3% Italian
CommanderCommanderFranz Conrad von HFranz Conrad von Hötzendorfötzendorf
1852-19251852-1925Chief of Staff, Chief of Staff, KuKKuK Army, Army, 1906-19171906-1917Proposed War with Serbia Proposed War with Serbia 25 times, 191325 times, 1913Dismissed, 1917, by new Dismissed, 1917, by new Emperor KarlEmperor Karl
Socialist VoteSocialist Vote
DateDate PercentagePercentage SocialistSocialist TotalTotal
of Voteof Vote SeatsSeats ParlParl
A-HA-H 19111911 25.425.4 3333
FranceFrance 19141914 16.816.8 103103
GermanyGermany19121912 34.834.8 110110 397397
RussiaRussia 19121912 n.a.n.a. 2424
BritainBritain 19101910 6.4 6.4 4242 670670
Ferguson, Pity of War
Fischer ThesisFischer ThesisFritz Fischer, German Historian, Fritz Fischer, German Historian, 1908-19991908-1999German leaders obsessed with German leaders obsessed with internal threat of Socialist revolutioninternal threat of Socialist revolutionGerman domestic pressure groups German domestic pressure groups produced aggressive foreign policyproduced aggressive foreign policyGermany deliberately began WW1 Germany deliberately began WW1 in bid for world powerin bid for world powerGermany intended to commit ethnic Germany intended to commit ethnic cleansing in Russia, then re-cleansing in Russia, then re-colonize with Germanscolonize with GermansContinuity in German foreign policyContinuity in German foreign policyHuge ControversyHuge Controversy
Wobbly Autocracy?Wobbly Autocracy?Internal UnrestInternal Unrest
in Russiain Russia
Evidence of UnrestEvidence of UnrestTroops Used to suppress internal unrestTroops Used to suppress internal unrest– 19011901 155155– 19031903 322322– Jan 1909Jan 1909 13,50713,507– All 1909All 1909 114,108114,108
1903: 54 aristocratic estates wrecked1903: 54 aristocratic estates wrecked1913: 100,000 arrests for 1913: 100,000 arrests for ““attacks on state attacks on state powerpower””
Kennedy, Kennedy, Rise & Fall of the Great PowersRise & Fall of the Great Powers
Wobbly Authoritarian?Wobbly Authoritarian?Internal Unrest Internal Unrest
in Chinain China
Murray Tanner, “China Rethinks Unrest,” 2004
ChinaChina’’s s Demographic ChallengeDemographic Challenge
Global Average = 103-107 Boy:Girl
11stst Image: Ideas & War in 1914 Image: Ideas & War in 1914
German Author General von Bernhardi,1849-1930 German Author General von Bernhardi,1849-1930
Germany & the Next WarGermany & the Next War– The Right to Make WarThe Right to Make War– The Duty to Make WarThe Duty to Make War– World Power or DownfallWorld Power or Downfall– War as biological necessity based on natural law War as biological necessity based on natural law
requiring struggle for existencerequiring struggle for existence
Key IdeasKey Ideas– MilitarismMilitarism– Social DarwinismSocial Darwinism– War as Moral CorrectiveWar as Moral Corrective
Causes of World War ICauses of World War IA.A. What 1914 MattersWhat 1914 MattersB.B. Incomplete ExplanationsIncomplete Explanations
A chauffeurA chauffeur’’s wrong turn?s wrong turn? A withered arm?A withered arm? Arms Race?Arms Race? Thinking War was Impossible?Thinking War was Impossible?
C.C. 33rdrd Image: Rise of German Power Image: Rise of German Power Effects of German power: Rigid AlliancesEffects of German power: Rigid Alliances The Schlieffen Plan (& Forster Thesis)The Schlieffen Plan (& Forster Thesis)
D.D. 22ndnd Image: Domestic Crises Image: Domestic Crises Crises within Multinational EmpiresCrises within Multinational Empires Fischer ThesisFischer Thesis
E.E. 11stst Image: Ideas Image: IdeasF.F. Learning from 1914 – Competing TheoriesLearning from 1914 – Competing Theories
““Motives TheoryMotives Theory”” & & ““Accidental WarAccidental War”” (& Levy (& Levy’’s Preference Scheme)s Preference Scheme) ““Spiral TheorySpiral Theory”” (& Turn the Army Around!) (& Turn the Army Around!) ““Deterrence TheoryDeterrence Theory”” (& Britain as Missing Deterer) (& Britain as Missing Deterer) ““Cult of the OffensiveCult of the Offensive”” (and Red Pants!) (and Red Pants!)
Accidental or Inadvertent War?Accidental or Inadvertent War?LevyLevy’’s Preference Schemes Preference Scheme
AHAH LW>>CW>>NP>>WWLW>>CW>>NP>>WW
GermanyGermany LW>>CW>>NP>>WWLW>>CW>>NP>>WW
RussiaRussiaNP>>WW>>CW>>LWNP>>WW>>CW>>LW
FranceFrance NP>>LW>>WW>>CWNP>>LW>>WW>>CW
UKUK NP>>LW>>WW>?LWNP>>LW>>WW>?LW
Levy in Levy in Avoiding WarAvoiding War
Barbara TuchmanBarbara Tuchman1912-19891912-1989
Spiral Spiral TheoryTheory
Spiral Theory: WhatSpiral Theory: What’’s Luxemburg Got to Do s Luxemburg Got to Do With This?With This?
Chancellor Chancellor Bethmann Bethmann HollwegHollweg
General General MoltkeMoltke
KW2 akaKW2 aka
Supreme Supreme War LordWar Lord
Cult of the Offensive? Cult of the Offensive?
World Politics in an Offensive World Politics in an Offensive Dominant WorldDominant World
Arguments for territorial expansion seem Arguments for territorial expansion seem persuasivepersuasive
Strong incentives for preemptive attackStrong incentives for preemptive attack
Strong incentives for preventive warStrong incentives for preventive war
Push diplomacy in crisisPush diplomacy in crisis
Premium on secrecyPremium on secrecy
The Cult of the OffensiveThe Cult of the Offensive
Assumption: Defensive military strategies Assumption: Defensive military strategies dominated World War I.dominated World War I.
Puzzle: Why did belligerents adopt Puzzle: Why did belligerents adopt offensive strategies?offensive strategies?
Michael Howard: Logic of Michael Howard: Logic of ““Men Against Men Against FireFire””
Map: Ger penetration 1918Map: Ger penetration 1918
Map: German control highpoint Map: German control highpoint 19181918
Elan Vitale!Elan Vitale!
Losses: KIALosses: KIAAug-Nov 1914Aug-Nov 1914
306,000
241,000
30,000
Key Lessons of 1914Key Lessons of 1914
““German RevolutionGerman Revolution”” pressuring pressuring international stabilityinternational stability
Rigid Military Planning Created Crisis Rigid Military Planning Created Crisis CascadeCascade
Incomplete Democratization (or Incomplete Democratization (or Liberalization) Dangerous Liberalization) Dangerous
Dangers of View that War is Inevitable or Dangers of View that War is Inevitable or GoodGood
Some ConclusionsSome Conclusions
Deep Causes vs. TriggerDeep Causes vs. Trigger
Immense Pressures Creating Strong Immense Pressures Creating Strong Pressure for ConflictPressure for Conflict
Some Pressures Look Similar TodaySome Pressures Look Similar Today