Running Head: HEURISTIC USE BY AN EXPERT

Heuristic Use by an Expert in the Commercial Moving Industry

Matthey Bilyeu, Daniel Kaskoun, Quoc Le, David Nelson, Aaron Pagano

Drexel University

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Introduction

Experts are often faced with tasks that can seem quite complex and difficult to others. To

deal with such challenges, experts commonly make use of heuristics, or rules of thumb, they

have learned through their experience in their field.

As observed by Crandall, Klein and Hoffman (2006), experts tend to know a large

number of heuristics that they can apply to problems in their field (Crandall, Klein, and

Hoffman, 2006, p. 42). Experts develop these through training, working with others, and simply

making observations during their work. Having learned these heuristics, they can then break

down more complicated problems into smaller pieces and use the general heuristics they have

learned to solve these smaller, simpler problems.

In this paper, we examine an expert in the field of commercial moving (moving offices)

and present him with a series of sample moving problems. Having him think aloud, we were

able to see how he broke down each problem, identify a variety of heuristics he uses to solve the

problems, then predict the amount of workers, equipment, and time would be necessary to

complete such a project.

Methods

A highly experienced salesman in the field of commercial moving services was asked by

an observer to think aloud as he worked through the problem of estimating the time, equipment,

and manpower needed to perform hypothetical move jobs. The move jobs were modeled by

providing a drawn floor plan of a building with the offices, cubicles, and other office features

included. These floor plans can be seen in Figures 1-4 in the appendix (located on page 8). The

subject was instructed to use the provided floor plan and list of items that needed to be moved

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into a space that is comparable to the original space (i.e. having the similar features that would

make moving in comparable in difficulty to moving out). The subject was allowed to take notes

as needed during the session and use other tools at his disposal in his office that would be

normally used when doing this type of work. The session was audio recorded so that there was a

record of the subject speaking and that notes could be taken at a later time.

Observations

The subject, when solving the presented problems, appealed to known heuristics learned

through experience to quickly and efficiently estimate components such as time needed or

manpower needed. The most commonly used of these is the concept of man-hours. When

given a set number of cubicles that needed moving, the subject would divide them up based on a

known number of man-hours needed in order to move a cubicle. Based on this heuristic, the

number of cubicles moving could be divided by number of man-hours to make a simple, quick

estimate of men or time needed.

Another commonly used heuristic is the number of dollies (a small frame with wheels

used to move objects) can be fit onto a straight-truck (a large commercial truck with two or three

axles that is not a tractor-trailer) based on what is on them. The number of boxes or pieces of

furniture that needed to be moved could be divided by the number of each type of dolly-load that

can be fit on a truck to estimate the number of trucks needed to complete a job. This process was

used seamlessly throughout the session in each of the four example situations.

Another observation was that move jobs that did not include furniture were far simpler

and easier to plan out, whereas those that involved moving furniture needed specialized crews

and more complex planning. It was observed that the subject spent considerably more time

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overall planning a move that involved furniture and spent more time looking over the floor plan

and thinking before writing down notes or making calculations whereas notes and calculations

were done immediately for simpler moves.

Results

Observed heuristics. The sessions took between two and seventeen minutes, the mean

session length was 7.13 minutes. Each move required different levels of crew, time, and

equipment. However, the planning process of each move involved a common set of heuristics.

The heuristics found can be broken into five categories, under which sub-rules fall. A total of 19

“rules” or heuristics were elicited overall. The five heuristic categories are:

1. Pre- and post-move crews

2. Man-hours/Crew Size

3. Number of trucks

4. Split crews

5. Furniture

At present, these categories will likely seem vague considering the numerous sub-rules are the

determining factors. In addition, these categories often intertwine (e.g. number of trucks is

influenced if the crew is split). These ambiguities will be cleared in an example from a session

that will follow.

Session example. Session 4 was the most complex example of the four given examples.

In this example, every heuristic was employed rather than a specific sample of them. The floor

plan for example 4 is provided in Figure 4. As is seen in the floor plan and move itinerary,

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everything in the space, including furniture and cubicle panels will be moved from the site into

another, comparable site.

Considerable planning was made, using the heuristics, starting with furniture. A sub-rule

under the furniture heuristic category is that furniture must be moved and set up in the new space

before boxes can be delivered to the new offices/cubicles. Additionally, moving furniture uses

two heuristic categories, man-hours and number of trucks. A heuristic used for man-hours to

knock down furniture is that it is one man-hour for each cubicle or office (i.e. it takes one man,

one hour to take apart office furniture or cubicle panels and wrap it to be moved). Additionally,

to pack one truck with furniture is one man-hour (due to safety reasons, this is split between two

workers, who take 30 minutes to pack a truck with furniture).

To determine number of trucks needed the split-crew and number of trucks heuristic

categories were used. Because of the size and complexity of the job, as well as the need to work

on both the destination and origin so furniture can be placed and set at destination while boxes

are packed at origin (a split-crew sub-rule), the crew must be split between the two sites.

Therefore, the most efficient use or trucks would be to shuttle two trucks between the two sites

continuously until the origin is cleared (a split-crew sub-rule). Man-hours for loading the trucks

is calculated using the sub-rules for number of dollies that can be fit on a truck and based on how

many boxes and pieces of furniture need to be moved. In the case of example 4, 10 truck-loads

are required.

Based on the heuristics used, the subject determined that a total of 125 man-hours were

required for the move (28 workstations + 18 offices + 2 conference rooms + file cabinets + truck

loading + post-move crew) using rules such as each cubicle equals one man-hour at both the

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origin and destination. Also, it was determined that two trucks are needed by using the split-

crew sub-rule of shuttling trucks.

After the conclusion of the move, because furniture was moved and reinstalled, a post-

move crew would be needed (a pre-/post-move crew sub-rule). The reason for this is that

employees of the client often want minor adjustments to their furniture for ergonomic or

aesthetic reasons. Also, because of the vast number of boxes used in the move, empty and

discarded boxes need to be taken away.

As an overview, each category of heuristic was used in this example. A post-move crew

was determined necessary because furniture needed moving, man-hours were decided based on

the number of cubicles, offices, number of truck-loads, furniture, the need for supervisors, and

the use of an elevator. The number of trucks needed was decided based on the number of dolly-

loads a truck can hold based on the types of things being dollied (furniture, boxes). And lastly,

the need to move furniture decided the need for the split-crew, the number of man-hours, the

number of trucks, and the type of workers needed (skill level). As can be seen based on these

results, all heuristics from all five categories are used in this type of move situation.

Discussion

From the present study, we can see that experts often face problems in their field that are

rarely seen by other people. Therefore, they have developed some special rules of thumb that

help them solve problems quickly. These skills are often acquired through real-world experience

and formal training.

The expert in the study had to work through some problems in which he estimated the

amount of man-hours, dollies, and trucks were needed to move a certain number of offices and

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cubicles given the constraints of the building. By letting him “think out loud”, we are able to see

the heuristics that he developed to solve them. This task, which would likely take non-expert

hours to finish, only took between two to seventeen minutes.

There was only one expert subject in the present research. There are a couple of ways to

expand this study for future research. First, instead of one expert, it would be beneficial to have

multiple experts working on these problems, either individually or collaboratively. Through

collaborative work, a researcher may able to understand not only experts’ rules of thumb but also

the way experts communicate to accomplish such tasks. Moreover, this type of study could also

include non-experts under the same conditions, in order to compare and contrast their methods.

The results of this research could be applicable for designing professional working environments

or support software to aid those who may be non-experts or to allow experts to work more

quickly.

Appendix

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Figure 1: The first floor plan used. Note on the bottom left the list of items being moved.

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Figure 2: The second floor plan shown. Note the list of items being moved on the lower

portion.

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Figure 3: The third floor plan shown. Note the list of items being moved on the bottom

right.

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Figure 4: The fourth and final floor plan shown. Note in the center the list of items to be

moved.

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References

Crandall, B., Klein, G., Hoffman, R.R. (2006). Working minds. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.