Dávid Burka: Comparing different scenarios of Hungarian demographic processes

Comparing different scenarios of Hungarian

demographic processes

Dávid Burka

Corvinus University of Budapest

Key Issues

OGIK-2016Burka - Developing a complex microsimulation system...

Pension system Income ▼/ Expenses ▲

Aging society (Life expectancies ▲ / Birth rates ▼)

Active workers ▼/ Pensioners ▲Health care demand ▲

150 years of our pension system

Burka - Developing a complex microsimulation system... OGIK-2016

1870

2015

Source: Hungarian Central Statistical Office

Key Issues


The taxes and expenses can be projected on the forecasted population based on different scenarios

It is necessary to forecast the demographic processes according to the available statistical indicators

„There is no sustainable development without sustainable society”

Stjepan Šterc

Such a projection is only possible when detailed data is available for each individual

Pension and health care costs


Pension costs10%

Health care7%

Other83%

Age based73%

Relative based11%

Disability10%

Other6%

GDPCosts97%

Prevention3%

Goals• Find a suitable method to forecast he population• Identifying the key factors that affect the life path

of an individual• Map the correlation between these factors with

respect to the causalities• Map availability of the necessary statistical data in

Hungary• Analyze the quality of the available data• Implement a Forecasting Framework


Cohort-component method


T

0 F 0 M

1 F 1 M

15 F 15 M

16 F 16 M

109 F 109 M

…

…

49 F 49 M

50 F 50 M

…

110 F 110 M

0

1

15

16

109

…

…

49

50

…

110

T+1

0 F 0 M

1 F 1 M

15 F 15 M

16 F 16 M

109 F 109 M

…

…

49 F 49 M

50 F 50 M

…

110 F 110 M

0

1

15

16

109

…

…

49

50

…

110

Microsimulation methodology


Results

Queries

Simulation

Forecasted datasets

Initial population

Parameter estimation

Data register



Prob

abili

ty

Parameter Estimation• Expert estimations• Estimations based on the data of other countries• Based on historical data

o Forecasts• Simple trends• Regression• Lee-Carter Model• Markov models• Compartment model

o Backpropagation• Heuristic algorithms




Results

Queries

Simulation

Forecasted datasets

Initial population


Forecasting Framework• Modules implemented

Birth (Mohácsi)Death (Mohácsi)Education and careerIncome and pensionRelationship• Leaving home (growing up)• Divorce• Marriage (based on statistical matching)

• Modules under developmentHealth and diseases (Kovács)Nationality and migration




Results

Queries

Simulation

Forecasted datasets

Initial population


Forecasted dataset


♂46 ♂42 ♂17 ♂65 ♀59 ♂28 ♀24Year T

♂47 ♂43 ♂18 ♂66 ♀60 ♂29 ♀25

♂56 ♂52 ♂27 ♀59 ♂38 ♀34

♂66 ♂62 ♂37

Year T+1

Year T+10

Year T+20 ♂48 ♀44

10.0 million

10.1 million

11.0 million

12.0 million

♂0

♂9

♂19

…

…

…

…

Forecasted dataset


♂46 ♂42 ♂17 ♂65 ♀59 ♂28 ♀24Year T

♂47 ♂43 ♂18 ♂66 ♀60 ♂29 ♀25

♂56 ♂52 ♂27 ♀59 ♂38 ♀34

♂66 ♂62 ♂37

Year T+1

Year T+10

Year T+20 ♂48 ♀44

10.0 million

10.1 million

11.0 million

12.0 million

♂0

♂9

♂19

…

…

…

…

+

+

+

2.2m 1.8m - 3.2m 1.7m 2.4m 0m

2.2m 1.8m - 3.2m 1.7m 2.4m 0m -2.4m

2.2m 1.8m - 3.2m 1.7m 2.4m 0m -2.4m

0m 1.8m 1.4m 3.2m 1.7m 0m 0m -

221 million entity state100 bytes storage for each

~21 Gbyte of data



Results

Queries

Simulation

Forecasted datasets

Initial population


Age tree forecasts


95-

90-94

85-89

80-84

75-79

70-74

65-69

60-64

55-59

50-54

45-49

40-44

35-39

30-34

25-29

20-24

15-19

10-14

5-9

0-4

Number of children per household


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055

Tota

l num

ber o

f hou

seho

lds

with

chi

ldre

n (in

thou

sand

s)

Households with 3 children

Households with 2 children

Households with 1 child

Contributions and pension costs


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055

Am

ount

(in

billi

ons)

Contribution Pension

Forecasts and reality

Burka - Developing a complex microsimulation system... OGIK-2016

British demographic forecasts compared to reality (Source: Office of National Statistics)

Framework demonstration


Dávid Burka: Comparing different scenarios of Hungarian demographic processes

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