Dark silicon, Shiny objects, and the uncertain futurePredicting the future is hard • The future is...
Transcript of Dark silicon, Shiny objects, and the uncertain futurePredicting the future is hard • The future is...
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Dark silicon, Shiny objects, and the uncertain future
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Moore’s Law
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Dennard Scaling
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Power = Capacitance-per-component X Components X Activation X Frequency X Voltage^2
Linear mode of operation: Voltage prop Frequency
P = 1/2CV2fA ; V pprop f
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What now?
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Specialize
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A6 A9X
Specialization is the answer?
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Do less
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Which one is the iPhone and which one is the Macbook?
to scale
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Do something else
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Fundamental market shift?
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the death of the desktop?
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the death of the laptop?
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Predicting the future is hard• The future is more uncertain now than ever.
• in 1998 Moore’s law was supposed to end in a 3-5 years because of wavelength limitations
• in 2001 I remember everyone thinking we’d scale pipelines out to 40-60 stages and push frequency up to 10-20Ghz, but then Denard Scaling ended
• …. in 2003 the CTO of Intel told me we’d have 128 core Xeon chips in 10 years, but then Dark Silicon happened
• …. in 2006
• everyone thought parallel programming would be “solved” in 2-3 years, but hopefully this class has shown you that didn’t happen
• the iPhone happened, …but are we peeking? (half way there at least?)
• Google started to use the term “the cloud” (1/4 of the way there?)