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Forests in the Balance: Forests as Providers of Ecosystem Services vs. Emissions from
Deforestation and Forest Degradation
Daniel NepstadChief Program Officer, Environmental Conservation Program
June 18, 2009
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4Forests inhale and exhale on an annual cycle
5Forest carbon stocks leaking into the atmosphere: deforestation
Houghton et al. 2007;
Page et al. 2003;
Alencar et al. 2006
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~half of Amazon forests depend upon deep root systems (>8 m) to remain physiologically active during seasonal drought, supplying
the atmosphere with water vaporNepstad et al. 1994 Nature
8A drought threshold experiment: 2000-2005
Nepstad, et al. 2007 Ecology
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The drought threshold:
• Large canopy trees are most vulnerable to drought
• Lianas and trees more vulnerable than palms
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Nepstad et al. 2007
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Value of forests to nearby coffee farms
Coffee near forest (within 1 km):
• 2x more bee visits
• 5x more bee species
• 20% higher yields
Lowerbound value of forest:
• $60,000/year (7% of farm revenue)
• Equivalent to competing land uses
$
$
Ricketts et al. 2004. PNAS
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Forest dieback has begun
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18Amazon 2030: 55% cleared or degraded; 15-25 B tons C emitted
Nepstad et al. 2008 Phil Trans Roy Soc
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Nepstad et al. 2006 Cons Biol
20REDD alone is not enough. The world needs more food
Area of Cattle & Sugar Cane, Brazil
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40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Cattle Pasture 2006 Sugar Cane 2006 Sugar Cane 2020
Mill
ions
of H
ecta
res
21A 20-year land agenda
Could we reduce carbon emissions from land by 3 B tons per year in two decades?
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0
0.5
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1.5
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2.5
DeforestationNew ForestsSoil CarbonNet Flux
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Carb
on e
mis
sions
from
the land
(Bill
ions
of
Tons
per
Year)
Year
3 B ton reduction by 2020