•Daily Operations BriefingFriday, February 17, 2017

8:30 a.m. EST

Significant Events:

• Oroville Dam Emergency Spillway Erosion – CA

Significant Weather:

• Flash flooding possible – central to southern CA

• Heavy snow possible – portions of CA, Central Great Basin, Northern Intermountain

• Rain and snow – Pacific Northwest to Rockies, Central Great Basin, Southwest and southern CA

• Rain and thunderstorms – Southern Plains to Southeast

• Rain – Pacific Northwest to southern CA; Lower Mississippi Valley to Tennessee Valley and Southeast

• Critical/elevated fire weather – Southern Plains

• Red Flag Warnings – NM & TX

• Space Weather: Past 24 hours – none observed; next 24 hours – none expected

Tropical Activity: No activity affecting U.S. interests

Earthquake Activity: No significant activity

Declaration Activity: None

Significant Activity – Feb 16-17

Oroville Dam Spillway Erosion – CA

Current Situation

• California Department of Water Resources (DWR) continues to regulate outflow, reduce water

levels, and support repair activities at Oroville Dam

• Lake level is 862.15 (-8.86) feet as of 6:00 am EST; target is 850 feet by February 18

• Current releases remain within capacity of downstream channels

• Additional storm systems forecast to impact CA next several days but there is no anticipated

need to increase outflow of spillway

Impacts

• Evacuation advisories remain in effect

• 4 shelters (-7) open with 429 (+106) occupants (FEMA Region IX, 7:00 am)

State/Local Response

• CA SEOC at Full Activation; Governor declared State of Emergency

Federal Response

• Emergency Declaration (3381-EM-CA) approved on February 14

• FEMA Region IX RRCC at Level II, with select ESFs for day shift; RWC returned to

Watch/Steady State, 24/7

• FEMA Region IX IMAT-2 deployed to CA OES SOC

• ISB personnel deployed to FSA/ISB at Travis Air Force Base

• FEMA Region IX LNOs deployed to DWR and CA OES SOC

• National IMAT-East 1 deployed to CA

• FEMA NWC at Enhanced Watch, 24/7

Photo source: NWS Sacramento

https://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/queryF?s=oro

TomorrowToday

National Weather Forecast

Active Watches and Warnings

Precipitation Forecast – Days 1-3

Day 1

Day 2

Day 3

Flash Flood Potential

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php?opt=curr&day=1

Day 1 Day 2

Day 3

Precipitation Forecast – Days 4-7

Days 4-5 Days 6-7

Significant River Outlook

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook

Forecast Snowfall – Days 1-3

Hazards Outlook – Feb 19-23

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

U.S. Drought Monitor

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/MapsAndData/ChangeMaps.aspx

http://spaceweather.com/

Space Weather

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Space Weather

Activity

Geomagnetic

Storms

Solar

Radiation

Radio

Blackouts

Past 24 Hours None None None None

Next 24 Hours Minor None None None

For further information on NOAA Space Weather Scales refer to http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

HF Communication Impact

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/aviation-community-

dashboard

Sunspot Activity

NWS Long-Range River Flood Risk

2017 Flood Outlook Highlights• Spring flood risk is considered above normal for

the Red River of the North and Souris basins

• Near to slightly above normal spring flood risk is

forecast in the Upper Mississippi and Upper

Missouri basins

• Near or slightly below normal flood risk is

expected in the remainder of the Mississippi and

Great Lakes basins

Chance of Flooding for Mar-Apr-May Period

<50% Long-Range Flood Risk

>50% Minor Long-Range Flood Risk

>50% Moderate Long-Range Flood Risk

>50% Major Long-Range Flood Risk

(As of February 16, 2017)

Joint Preliminary Damage Assessments

RegionState /

LocationEvent IA/PA

Number of CountiesStart – End

Requested Completed

X

IdahoSevere Winter Weather

December 22, 2016 – January 19, 2017

IA 2 2 2/8 – 2/10

PA 4 4 2/8 – 2/16

OregonSevere Winter Weather

January 8 – 20, 2017

IA 0 0 N/A

PA 12 0 2/27 – TBD

Declaration Requests in ProcessRequests

APPROVED(since last report)

Requests DENIED

(since last report)

3 Date Requested 0 0

Lake Traverse Reservation, Sisseton-Wahpeton Oyate Tribe –

DR Severe Winter StormJanuary 25, 2017

NV – DR Severe Winter Storms, Flooding & Mudslides February 10, 2017

KS – DR Severe Winter Storm February 13, 2017

Disaster Requests & Declarations

Open Field Offices

Readiness – Deployable Teams and Assets

Resource Status TotalFMC

Available

Partially

Available

Not

Available

Detailed,

Deployed,

Activated

Comments Status Criteria

National

IMAT3 0 0 1 2

East-1 to CA (Oroville Dam Spillway Erosion)

East-2 reconstituting through 2/28

West to GA (DR-4294, DR-4297)

Green: >3 Teams Available

Yellow: 1 - 2 Teams Available

Red: 0 Teams Available

N-IMAT red if 50% of Section Chiefs or Team

Leader unavailable for deployment

Regional

IMAT13 8 0 0 5

Deployed:

Region IV-2 to MS (DR-4295)

Region VI-2 to LA (DR-4300)

Region VIII to SD/CO (DR-4298)

Region IX-2 to CA (EM-3381)

Region X to WA (DR-4296)

Green > 6 Teams Available

Yellow: 4 - 6 Teams Available

Red: 0 - 4 Teams Available

R-IMAT also red if TL or Ops / Log Chief is

unavailable & has no qualified replacement

FCO 35 5 0 4 26OCD Readiness

FCO Green Yellow Red

Type 1 3+ 2 1

FDRC 11 5 0 2 4Type 2 4+ 3 2

Type 3 4+ 3 2

FDRC 3 2 1

US&R 28 28 0 0 0Green: >66% Available

Yellow: 33% - 66% Available

Red: <33% Available

MERS 36 28 0 6 2

Assets are supporting:

LA: DR-4300

CA: EM-3381 (ISB support Oroville Dam)

CA: DR-4301

Green: >66% Available

Yellow: 33% - 66% Available

Red: <33% Available

ResourceForce

StrengthAvailable Deployed Other Cadres with less than 25% availability

Total Workforce 10,172 5,346 52% 3,405 1,421 None

Readiness – Activation Teams

Resource Status Total StatusActivated

Team

Activation

Level

Activation

TimesReason/Comments

NWC 5 Activated Enhanced Watch 24/7Oroville, CA Dam Emergency Spillway

Erosion

NRCC 2 Not Activated

HLT 1 Not Activated Deactivated for the Season

RWCs/MOCs 10 Not Activated Region IX

Returned to

Watch/Steady State,

24/7

RRCCs 10 Activated Region IX Level II Day shift 10:00 am-10:00 pm ESTOroville, CA Dam Emergency Spillway

Erosion

Back-up Regions (Feb 13-19): II & V