DAILY I FOREX REPORT 29

TH

APRIL 2013

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Australian Dollar Falls As China Growth Less Than Expected

Japan Industrial Production Rises for the Third Month

EURUSD Possibly Repeating 2010-2011 Trading Pattern

Forex Trading Weekly Forecast 04.15.2013

US Dollar in Short-term Panic Amid Weak Data, Falling Yields

The US Dollar was the second worst performing major this past week, gaining

only against the significantly weaker Japanese Yen by +0.81%.

Japanese Tumbles then Surges - Pivotal Week Ahead

The Japanese Yen came within a hair’s width of the critical ¥100 mark against

the US Dollar (ticker: USDOLLAR), once again posting the worst 7-day

performance of any major currency two weeks after the Bank of Japan embarked

on hyperactive Quantitative Easing measures.

Gold Plummets Through Key Support as Fed Mulls QE End- $1482 in Focus

Gold plummeted this week with the precious metal falling nearly 5% to trade at

$1502 at the close of trade in New York on Friday. The loss pushed bullion below

key technical barriers with Friday's range marking the largest decline in more

than a year. However, with data out of the world's largest economy coming under

increased scrutiny, could weak US data help support the battered metal? Don't

count on it.

Australian Dollar Looks to Earnings Docket to Set Direction

The Australian Dollar looks to the corporate earnings docket to break the

deadlock between competing fundamental trends and offer a clear directional

bearing.

New Zealand Dollar Poised to Gain as China GDP Likely to Impress

The New Zealand Dollar continued its gains for the fifth

consecutive week, rallying by 1.7 percent against the

Greenback.

TRADING TIPS

SELL EURUSD BELOW

1.3050 tgs

1.3030/1.3010sl

1.3080

SELL USDJPY BELOW

97.50 tgt 97.30/97.10

SL 97.80

SELL GBPUSD BELOW

1.5300 Tgt

1.5280/1.5260 SL

1.5330

HEADLINES

HOURLY EURUSD CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 1.3097

HIGH: 1.3108

LOW: 1.3052

CLOSE: 1.3077

EURUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD

TREND : BEARISH

STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE

MACD =>-.0005(BEARISH SIGNAL)

RSI => 45(BEARISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY EURUSD CHART

HOURLY USDJPY CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 98.44

HIGH: 98.71

LOW: 97.55

CLOSE: 97.75

USDJPY LOOKS DOWNWARD

TREND: BEARISH

STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE

MACD => -0.07( BEARISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>51(BEARISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY USDJPY CHART

HOURLY GBPUSD CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 1.5353

HIGH: 1.5385

LOW: 1.5304

CLOSE: 1.5330

GBPUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD

TREND: BEARISH

STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE

MACD => .002( BEARISH SIGNAL)

RSI => 43(BEARISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY GBPUSD CHART

HOURLY EURGBP CHART

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 0.8530

HIGH: 0.8541

LOW: 0.8515

CLOSE: 0.8530

EURGBP LOOKS UPWARDS

TREND: BULLISH

STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS

MACD =>-.003(BEARISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>52(BEARISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY EURGBP CHART

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HOURLY USDINDEX CHART

Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous Notes

Sun Apr 14

22:30

NZD Performance Services Index (MAR)

Medium 55.4

55.5

23:01

GBP Rightmove House Prices (MoM) (APR)

Low 2.1%

1.7%

23:01

GBP Rightmove House Prices (YoY) (APR)

Medium 0.4%

1.2%

Mon Apr 15

01:30

AUD Home Loans (FEB)

Medium 2.0% 1.5% -0.3%

01:30

AUD Investment Lending (FEB)

Low 1.8%

4.4%

ECONOMIC CALENDER

ANALYSIS

OPEN: 82.7400

HIGH: 82.7430

LOW: 82.4710

CLOSE: 82.5620

USDINDEX LOOKS DOWNWARD

TREND: BEARISH

STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE

MACD =>0.22(BEARISH SIGNAL)

RSI =>39(BEARISH SIGNAL)

01:30

AUD Value of Loans (MoM) (FEB)

Low 1.2%

1.2%

02:00

CNY Entrepreneur Confidence Index (1Q)

Low 122.4

120.4

02:00

CNY Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (MAR)

Medium 9.5% 10.0% 9.9%

02:00

CNY Business Climate Index (1Q)

Low 125.6

124.4

02:00

CNY Industrial Production (YoY) (MAR)

Medium 8.9% 10.1%

02:00

CNY Fixed Assets Inv Excl. Rural YTD YoY (MAR)

Medium 20.9% 21.3% 21.2%

02:00

CNY Retail Sales YTD (YoY) (MAR)

Medium 12.4% 12.5% 12.3%

02:00

CNY Retail Sales (YoY) (MAR)

Medium 12.6% 12.6%

02:00

CNY Real GDP YTD (YoY) (1Q)

High 7.7% 8.0% 7.8%

02:00

CNY Real GDP (QoQ) (1Q)

High 1.6% 2.0% 2.0%

02:00

CNY Real GDP (YoY) (1Q)

High 7.7% 8.0% 7.9%

04:30

JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (FEB F)

Low 0.6%

-0.1%

04:30

JPY Industrial Production (YoY) (FEB F)

Medium -10.5%

-11.0%

04:30

JPY Capacity Utilization (MoM) (FEB F)

Low 0.7%

1.7%

06:00

JPY Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (MAR F)

Medium -15.7%

-21.6%

06:15

JPY BOJ Governor Kuroda Speech

Medium

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Trade Balance s.a. (euros) (FEB)

Low 12.0B 10.0B 8.7B

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Trade Balance (euros) (FEB)

Low 10.4B 5.0B -4.7B

12:30

USD Empire Manufacturing (APR)

Low

7 9.24

13:00

USD Total Net TIC Flows (FEB)

Low

$110.9B

13:00

USD Net Long-term TIC Flows (FEB)

Medium

$40.0B $25.7B

13:00

CAD Existing Home Sales (MoM) (MAR)

Medium

-2.1%

14:00

USD NAHB Housing Market Index (APR)

Low

45 44

Tue Apr 16

01:30

AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) (MAR)

Low

0.0%

01:30

AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) (MAR)

Low

9.4%

01:30

AUD RBA Policy Meeting Minutes (APR)

High

04:00

JPY Tokyo Condominium Sales (YoY) (MAR)

Low

-10.9%

07:15

CHF Producer & Import Prices (MoM) (MAR)

Low

0.0% 0.1%

07:15

CHF Producer & Import Prices (YoY) (MAR)

Medium

-0.2% 0.1%

08:30

GBP Producer Price Index Input n.s.a. (MoM) (MAR)

Low

-0.2% 3.2%

08:30

GBP Producer Price Index Input n.s.a. (YoY) (MAR)

Low

0.7% 2.5%

08:30

GBP Producer Price Index Output n.s.a. (MoM) (MAR)

Low

0.3% 0.8%

08:30

GBP Producer Price Index Output n.s.a. (YoY) (MAR)

Medium

2.0% 2.3%

08:30

GBP Producer Price Index Output Core n.s.a. (MoM) (MAR)

Low

0.2% 0.3%

08:30

GBP Producer Price Index Output Core n.s.a. (YoY) (MAR)

Medium

1.4% 1.3%

08:30

GBP DCLG UK House Prices (YoY) (FEB)

Low

2.4% 2.2%

08:30

GBP Consumer Price Index (MoM) (MAR)

Medium

0.3% 0.7%

08:30

GBP Consumer Price Index (YoY) (MAR)

High

2.8% 2.8%

08:30

GBP Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) (MAR)

High

2.3% 2.3%

08:30

GBP Retail Price Index (MAR)

Low

248.7 247.6

08:30

GBP Retail Price Index (MoM) (MAR)

Low

0.4% 0.7%

08:30

GBP Retail Price Index (YoY) (MAR)

Medium

3.3% 3.2%

08:30

GBP Retail Price Index Ex Mort Int.Payments (YoY) (MAR)

Low

3.2% 3.2%

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (MoM) (MAR)

Medium

1.2% 0.4%

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (YoY) (MAR)

High

1.7% 1.7%

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY) (MAR)

High

1.4% 1.3%

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) (APR)

Medium

33.4

09:00

EUR German ZEW Survey (Current Situation) (APR)

Medium

14 13.6

09:00

EUR German ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) (APR)

High

41 48.5

12:30

CAD International Securities Transactions (Canadian dollar) (FEB)

Low

13.34B

12:30

CAD Manufacturing Shipments (MoM) (FEB)

Low

0.7% -0.2%

12:30

USD Consumer Price Index (MoM) (MAR)

Medium

0.0% 0.7%

12:30

USD Consumer Price Index (YoY) (MAR)

High

1.6% 2.0%

12:30

USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM) (MAR)

Medium

0.2% 0.2%

12:30

USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (MAR)

High

2.0% 2.0%

12:30

USD Housing Starts (MAR)

Low

930K 917K

12:30

USD Housing Starts (MoM) (MAR)

Medium

1.4% 0.8%

12:30

USD Building Permits (MAR)

Low

943K 939K

12:30

USD Building Permits (MoM) (MAR)

Medium

0.4% 3.9%

12:30

USD Consumer Price Index Core Index s.a. (MAR)

Low

232.512

12:30

USD Consumer Price Index n.s.a. (MAR)

Low

232.966 232.166

13:15

USD Industrial Production (MAR)

Medium

0.2% 0.8%

13:15

USD Capacity Utilization (MAR)

Low

78.4% 78.3%

13:15

USD Manufacturing (SIC) Production (MAR)

Medium

0.1% 0.8%

16:00

USD Fed's Duke Speaks to Bankers in Washington

Low

19:30

USD Fed's Kocherlakota Speaks in Minneapolis

Low

22:45

NZD Consumer Prices Index (QoQ) (1Q)

Medium

0.5% -0.2%

22:45

NZD Consumer Prices Index (YoY) (1Q)

High

0.9% 0.9%

Wed Apr 17

00:30

AUD Westpac Leading Index (MoM) (FEB)

Low

0.3%

05:00

JPY Consumer Confidence (MAR)

Medium

44.3

06:00

EUR EU 25 New Car Registrations (MAR)

Low

-10.5%

08:30

GBP Bank of England Minutes

High

08:30

GBP Claimant Count Rate (MAR)

Medium

4.7% 4.7%

08:30

GBP Jobless Claims Change (MAR)

Medium

0.0K -1.5K

08:30

GBP Average Weekly Earnings 3M/YoY (FEB)

Medium

1.4% 1.2%

08:30

GBP Weekly Earnings exBonus 3M/YoY (FEB)

Low

1.1% 1.2%

08:30

GBP ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) (FEB)

Medium

7.8% 7.8%

08:30

GBP Employment Change (3M/3M) (FEB)

Medium

80K 131K

09:00

CHF ZEW Survey (Expectations) (APR)

Medium

2.3

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Construction Output s.a. (MoM) (FEB)

Low

-1.4%

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Construction Output w.d.a. (YoY) (FEB)

Low

-7.3%

11:00

USD MBA Mortgage Applications (APR 12)

Low

13:00

CAD Teranet/National Bank HPI (MoM) (MAR)

Low

-0.2%

13:00

CAD Teranet/National Bank HPI (YoY) (MAR)

Low

2.7%

13:00

CAD Teranet/National Bank HP Index (MAR)

Low

152.72

13:30

USD Fed's Bullard Speaks in New York

Low

14:00

CAD Bank of Canada Rate Decision (APR 17)

High

1.00% 1.00%

14:30

USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (APR 12)

Low

250K

14:30

USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (APR 12)

Low

889K

14:30

USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (APR 12)

Low

1699K

14:30

USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (APR 12)

Low

-169K

16:00

USD Fed's Rosengren Speaks in New York

Low

18:00

USD U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book

High

22:00

NZD ANZ NZ Job Ads (MoM) (MAR)

Low

1.0%

23:50

JPY Merchandise Trade Balance Total (Yen) (MAR)

Medium

-¥522.2B -¥777.5B

23:50

JPY Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance (Yen) (MAR)

Low

-¥934.5B -¥1086.6B

23:50

JPY Merchandise Trade Exports (YoY) (MAR)

Low

0.2 -2.9

23:50

JPY Merchandise Trade Imports (YoY) (MAR)

Low

6.3 11.9

23:50

JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (APR 12)

Low

-¥1144.9B

23:50

JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (APR 12)

Low

¥6.3B

23:50

JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (APR 12)

Low

¥463.6B

23:50

JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (APR 12)

Low

¥868.6B

Thu Apr 18

JPY BOJ Policy Member Miyao Speaks with Business Leaders

Low

JPY Nationwide Department Store Sales (YoY) (MAR)

Low

0.3%

CNY Actual FDI (YoY) (MAR)

Medium

1.9% 6.3%

JPY Tokyo Department Store Sales (YoY) (MAR)

Low

2.5%

01:00

NZD ANZ Consumer Confidence Index (APR)

Low

114.8

01:00

NZD ANZ Consumer Confidence (MoM) (APR)

Low

-5.1%

01:30

AUD NAB Business Confidence (1Q)

Medium

-5

01:30

CNY China Property Prices (MAR)

Medium

01:30

AUD RBA FX Transactions Other (MAR)

Low

01:30

AUD RBA Foreign Exchange Transaction (Australian dollar) (MAR)

Low

328M

03:30

AUD RBA FX Transactions Govt. (MAR)

Low

08:30

GBP Retail Sales (MoM) (MAR)

Low

-0.5% 1.9%

08:30

GBP Retail Sales (YoY) (MAR)

Medium

0.9% 3.3%

08:30

GBP Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel (MoM) (MAR)

Low

-0.5% 2.1%

08:30

GBP Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel (YoY) (MAR)

Medium

-0.4% 2.6%

12:30

USD Initial Jobless Claims (APR 13)

Medium

346K

12:30

USD Continuing Claims (APR 6)

Low

3079K

13:00

USD Fed's Kocherlakota Speaks in New York

Low

13:30

USD Fed's Lacker Speaks on Credit in Charlotte, North Carolina

Low

14:00

USD Philadelphia Fed. (APR)

Medium

3 2

14:00

USD Leading Indicators (MAR)

Medium

0.1% 0.5%

14:30

USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (APR 12)

Low

-14

16:00

USD Fed's Raskin Speaks in New York

Low

Fri

Apr 19 01:35

CNY MNI Flash Business Sentiment Indicator (APR)

Low

02:00

CNY Conference Board China Leading Economic Index (MAR)

Low

05:00

JPY Coincident Index (FEB F)

Low

92.1

05:00

JPY Leading Index (FEB F)

Medium

97.5

06:00

EUR German Producer Prices (MoM) (MAR)

Low

0.1% -0.1%

06:00

EUR German Producer Prices (YoY) (MAR)

Medium

0.7% 1.2%

08:00

EUR Euro-Zone Current Account s.a. (euros) (FEB)

Low

14.8B

08:00

EUR Euro-Zone Current Account n.s.a. (euros) (FEB)

Low

-4.5B

12:30

CAD Wholesale Sales (MoM) (FEB)

Low

0.3%

12:30

CAD Consumer Price Index (MoM) (MAR)

Medium

0.5% 1.2%

12:30

CAD Consumer Price Index (YoY) (MAR)

High

0.2% 1.2%

12:30

CAD Bank Canada Consumer Price Index Core (MoM) (MAR)

Medium

1.0% 0.8%

12:30

CAD Bank Canada Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) (MAR)

High

0.2% 1.4%

12:30

CAD Consumer Price Index SA (MoM) (MAR)

Low

1.4% 0.7%

12:30

CAD Core CPI SA (MoM) (MAR)

Low

0.4%

12:30

CAD Consumer Price Index (MAR)

Low

122.7

16:00

USD Fed's Stein Speaks on Credit Markets in Charlotte

Low

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