Dachshunds and data: Developing a tool to help dog breeders predict genetic risks.
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Transcript of Dachshunds and data: Developing a tool to help dog breeders predict genetic risks.
Dachshunds and DataDeveloping a tool to help dog breeders predict genetic risksOR56: Sept. 2014
Lafora disease and DNA testing.
Developing a tool
Overview
Learning and next
steps
Happy dogs and owners
Presented by Ian Seath & Sophie Carr
DNA tests Miniature Wirehaired Dachshunds
4 populations
2 tests available
Not consistently used
Tested and no recessive gene (clear)
Tested and non-symptomatic (carrier)
Known to suffer from epilepsy (Lafora disease)
Need to identify breeding pairs which may produce
affected puppies
Tested and symptomatic (affected)
Tested ”Not affected” (clear or carrier)
Identifies if the dog carries the recessive gene
Lafora disease and DNA testing
What is the probability of breeding an
affected puppy?
Has either parent dog had the DNA test?
Show dog?
Hobby breeder?Bred with the dog down the road?
If tested are the parent dogs:
clear; carriers or affected?
If the parent dogs have not been tested, do they show signs of being affected?
Underlying probabilities of a dog being clear, carrier or affected?
DataLots of unknowns and estimated values.
RequirementSimple, robust model which provides indicative results.
SolutionProbability trees.
1
2
3
Developing a tool
Clear
Affected
Carrier
0.4
5
0.1
0.45
Clear
Carrier
0.4
5
0.1
0.45
Affected
Clear
Carrier
Affected
0.75
0.25
0
When a carrier and clear dog breed, the resulting puppies can be clear or carriers – there are not two recessive genes present to allow for an affected puppy
Simple probability tree
THEORETICAL PROBABILITY OF PUPPIES WHICH ARECLEAR CARRIER AFFECTED
CLEAR TO CLEAR 1.000 0.000 0.000CLEAR TO AFFECTED 0.000 1.000 0.000CLEAR TO CARRIER 0.750 0.250 0.000CLEAR TO NOT AFFECTED 0.863 0.138 0.000CLEAR TO NOT TESTED 0.788 0.213 0.000CARRIER TO NOT AFFECTED 0.475 0.388 0.138NOT AFFECTED TO NOT AFFECTED 0.649 0.275 0.076CARRIER TO NOT TESTED 0.450 0.388 0.163NOT AFFECTED TO NOT TESTED 0.602 0.309 0.089NOT TESTED TO NOT TESTED 0.557 0.338 0.106AFFECTED TO NOT TESTED 0.000 0.675 0.325
The tool
The benefits
Increasing awareness
•Probability of breeding affected puppies
Informed decisions
•Robust, simple to use model
Simple methodology
• Investigate different breeding strategies
Predictive analysis
Enhance model methodology
Increased volume and accuracy of data
Review model assumptions
Investigate impact of new
breeding strategies
Future improveme
nts