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Latest numbers on COVID-19 in the UK – 30 October 2020 Mostly bad. With many thanks to Catherine Finnecy for help in collating and understanding the data and Luke Shepherd for the international plots. 1. Growth of cases, hospitalisations and deaths 2. What do we know about how it’s spreading? 3. How can we reverse growth?

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  • Latest numbers on COVID-19 in the UK – 30 October 2020

    Mostly bad.

    With many thanks to Catherine Finnecy for help in collating and understanding the data and Luke Shepherd for the international plots.

    1. Growth of cases, hospitalisations and deaths

    2. What do we know about how it’s spreading?

    3. How can we reverse growth?

  • Number of new UK confirmed COVID-19 cases by reported date(people who have had a positive test)

    New confirmed cases

    7-day rolling average

    Data from https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk and https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/latest

  • Data from https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk.

    Number of new confirmed COVID-19 cases / 100,000 people – UK nations

    NI circuit breaker

    Wales circuit breaker

    England tier system

    Scotland stronger restrictions in

    central belt

    England rule of six & 10pm curfew.

    Some places ban on household mixing

  • Number of new confirmed COVID-19 cases / 100,000 people –England regions

    Data from https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk and https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/latest

    NE & Yorks

    NW

    London

    Midlands

  • Number of new confirmed COVID-19 cases / 100,000 people –England regions

    Data from https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk

    East of England

    SW

    London

    SE

  • Number of new hospital admissions with COVID-19 per day in England

    Data from https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

    Just over 1 doubling from April peak(3 weeks…?)

  • 3-day average of daily number of new hospital admissions with COVID-19 per day / million people across different regions in England

    NW

    London

    Midlands

    Data from https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/

    NE & Yorks

    Where London was around lockdown day in March

  • Number of new UK deaths from COVID-19 per week

    Data from :England and Wales: www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/latestScotland: https://data.gov.scot/coronavirus-covid-19/detail.html Northern Ireland: www.nisra.gov.uk/publications/weekly-deaths

    Scotland

    Northern Ireland

    England and Wales

    These are registered deaths where COVID-19 was mentioned on the death certificate, regardless of location

    234 w/e 25th Sept

    158 w/e 18th Sept

    w/e 12 Mar w/e 17 Apr

    333 w/e 2nd Oct474 w/e 9th Oct

    762 w/e 16th Oct

  • Number of deaths within 28 days of +ve COVID test reported per day in England

    Data from https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

    2 wks 2,1472 wks 8672 wks 4162 wks 152People infected mid August

    Next two weeks 4,000?

    Two weeks after that 8,000?

    So what can we do to reverse growth?

  • What do we know about current spread?

    Graphics from https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/930819/Weekly_COVID-19_and_Influenza_Surveillance_Graphs_W44.pdf

    Big young people spike now coming down – but older age groups still increasing

  • What do we know about current spread?

    Graphics from https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/930819/Weekly_COVID-19_and_Influenza_Surveillance_Graphs_W44.pdf

    But, when you look closer, school age children are increasingly catching COVID

  • What do we know about current spread?

    Graphics from https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/930819/Weekly_COVID-19_and_Influenza_Surveillance_Graphs_W44.pdf

    Secondary schools

    Data from https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/latest

  • What do we know about current spread?

    Graphics from https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/930819/Weekly_COVID-19_and_Influenza_Surveillance_Graphs_W44.pdf

    Hospitality and schools among most common locations.

  • A closer look at the Netherlands

    Closure of bars and restaurants may be slowing growth but curfew did not do much.Household mixing still allowed.

    With thanks to Luke Shepherd for producing the charts

  • A closer look at France

    Marseille closes bars and restaurants Paris closes

    bars and restaurants

    Overnight curfew extended to 38 more departments

    Lockdown,Schools open

    With thanks to Luke Shepherd for producing the charts

  • A closer look at Ireland

    Level 2 – rule of 6, bars + restaurants openLevel 3 – can only mix with 1 household, gyms, museum close, outdoor dining, pub restrictionsLevel 4 – No household mixing, shops, hairdressers etc close, take away / outdoor onlyLevel 5 – Stay at home. Schools, universities, creches stay open.With thanks to Luke Shepherd for producing the charts

  • What can be done?

    We need to reduce cases rapidly. This means getting R below 1 (currently R somewhere between 1.2 and 1.6).

    If we can get R to 0.6 (total lockdown) then cases will halve about every week.

    Getting R to 0.85 means cases will halve about every 3 weeks. Could do this with closing a lot of things except schools.

    We believe we need to aim to get cases below 5,000 confirmed cases per day and reform test and trace to be able to cope with that number.

  • What should be done?

    New cases per day in England

    Days into new intervention policy

    R=0.6“hard lockdown” for 3 weeks

    R=0.85Lockdown with open schools for 9 weeks

    R=0.95Choose less restrictive set of measures to reduce R to just below 1, indefinitely

    Relax measures to maintain R=1 once cases low enough

    Slow comes at a cost. Total number of cases over those 4 months:R=0.6: 500,000R=0.85: 800,000R=0.95: 1.7 million

    Only see impact on cases in 1 week’s time

  • Summary

    COVID continues to spread across Wales and England – but Scotland levelling off, Northern Ireland coming down. Wales should see impact from its firebreak next week.

    The government urgently needs to halt and reverse growth.

    Trade-offs between severity of circuit break and duration. Keeping schools open would require more restrictions for longer.

    The better Test and Trace is, the fewer restrictions are needed once cases are below 5,000. Supporting people to isolate is crucial.

    We are just over one “doubling” away from reaching the peak of hospital admissions seen in April. This is 17-20 days at current rates.


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