Cutting Through the Fog of the Global Equity Markets Atlantic Connection Conference

16
Tina Byles Williams, CEO & CIO December 10, 2008 MANAGER OF EMERGING MANAGERS STRATEGIES Cutting Through the Fog of the Global Equity Markets Atlantic Connection Conference Tina Byles Williams Chief Investment Office and Chief Executive Officer July 2011

description

Cutting Through the Fog of the Global Equity Markets Atlantic Connection Conference Tina Byles Williams Chief Investment Office and Chief Executive Officer July 2011. DISCLOSURES. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Transcript of Cutting Through the Fog of the Global Equity Markets Atlantic Connection Conference

Page 1: Cutting Through the Fog of the Global Equity Markets Atlantic Connection Conference

Tina Byles Williams, CEO & CIO December 10, 2008

MANAGER OF EMERGING MANAGERS STRATEGIES

Cutting Through the Fog of the Global Equity Markets

Atlantic Connection ConferenceTina Byles Williams

Chief Investment Office and Chief Executive Officer

July 2011

Page 2: Cutting Through the Fog of the Global Equity Markets Atlantic Connection Conference

2

DISCLOSURES

This report is neither an offer to sell nor a solicitation to invest in any product offered by FIS Group, Inc. The information contained herein is proprietary and confidential to FIS Group and may not be disclosed to third parties or duplicated or used for any purpose other than the purpose for which it has been provided. Any unauthorized use, duplication or disclosure of this data is strictly prohibited.

This report is based on information believed to be correct, but is subject to revision. Although the information provided herein has been obtained from sources which FIS Group believes to be reliable, FIS Group does not guarantee its accuracy, and such information may be incomplete or condensed. Additional information is available from FIS Group upon request.

Asset allocation and diversification do not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining financial markets. No assurance can be given that any particular investment objective or strategy will be achieved and investment results may vary over any given time.

All performance and other projections are historical and do not guarantee future performance.

Sector Investing: Because of their narrow focus, sector investments tend to be more volatile than investments that diversify across many sectors and companies.

International/Emerging Markets: International investing entails greater risk, as well as greater potential rewards, compared to U.S. investing. These risks include political and economic uncertainties of foreign countries as well as the risk of currency fluctuations. These risks are magnified in countries with emerging markets because these countries may have relatively unstable governments and less established markets and economics.

Fixed Income: Bonds are subject to interest rate risk. When interest rates rise, bond prices fall. Generally, the longer a bond’s maturity, the more sensitive it is to this risk. Bonds may also be subject to call risk, which is the risk that the issuer will redeem the debt at its option, fully or partially, before the scheduled maturity date. The market value of debt instruments may fluctuate, and proceeds from sales prior to maturity may be more or less than the amount originally invested or the maturity value due to changes in market conditions or changes in the credit quality of the issuer.

This report is not intended to represent the rendering of accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The ultimate responsibility for the decision on the appropriate application of accounting, tax, legal and regulatory treatment rests with the recipient and its accountants, tax and regulatory counsel. The recipient should consult, and must rely on its own professional tax, legal and specific asset class investment advisors as to matters concerning any FIS Group investment products.

Page 3: Cutting Through the Fog of the Global Equity Markets Atlantic Connection Conference

Key Highlights of FIS Group • Established in February 1996

• Assets under Management or Advisory at $3.2 Billion

• Specialists in managing funds comprised of Entrepreneurial or Emerging Managers with an objective of generating attractive risk adjusted returns

3* Insufficient data to generate Information Ratio for the strategies.

Equity Composites Inception Date

Since Inception through May 31, 2011

Excess Return (GOF) Information Ratio

FIS GROUP GLOBAL SELECT STRATEGYFebruary-08 3.96 0.86

MSCI ACWI Net Index

FIS GROUP GLOBAL SELECT STRATEGY- DYNAMICDecember-08 3.86 0.76

MSCI ACWI Net Index

FIS GROUP GLOBAL EQUITY EX-US STRATEGYOctober-08 1.45 0.34

MSCI ACWI Ex-US Net Index

FIS GROUP GLOBAL EQUITY EX-US STRATEGY - DYNAMICDecember-08 4.11 0.73

MSCI ACWI Ex-US Net Index

FIS GROUP US ALL CAP CORE STRATEGY May-99 0.53 0.26

Russell 3000 Index

FIS GROUP GLOBAL BLENDED 60% ALL CAP & 40% MSCI ACWI Ex-USDecember-10 1.05 n/a *

60% Russell 3000 & 40% MSCI ACWI Ex-US Net Index

FIS GROUP SECTOR ROTATION STRATEGYMay-11 0.68 n/a *

S&P 500 Index

Page 4: Cutting Through the Fog of the Global Equity Markets Atlantic Connection Conference

Value Added From Both Robust Manager Selection and Portfolio Strategy

4

Robust Opportunity Set of Entrepreneurial Managers

Database Approved Products

US Equity 777 97*

Non-US Equity & Global Equity# 128# 19*

ESG 8 7

Fixed Income 23 9

Total Number of Investment Products 936 125

* Includes 6 US Equity and 1 non-US Equity products which are ESG. Total does not double-count.

# Non-US Equity and Global Equity are combined as Non-US Equity in our database.

Page 5: Cutting Through the Fog of the Global Equity Markets Atlantic Connection Conference

Thesis: Global Economy has Decoupled Into a Bipolar Landscape

5

Developed Economies EM Countries (with focus on BRICS)

Economic Growth Major policy concern is how to stimulate growth

Major concern is how to slow growth

Inflation Disinflation or low inflation High (but has not reached level of early to mid 1990s)

Monetary Policy Debate in most of G7 countries is whether more accommodation needed.

Policy issue is how much to tighten

Wage Growth Slow Fast

Credit Growth Anemic Explosive

Property Prices Continued slump Escalating property prices is causing major policy headache

• Chasm in indicators and policies between G7 and EM World at historic extreme

• Symptomatic that the ongoing shift of economic power between the G7 and emerging regions may have reached a threshold after which the EM world is being driven by its own dynamics

Page 6: Cutting Through the Fog of the Global Equity Markets Atlantic Connection Conference

Global Equity Markets in a Bipolar Landscape

6

1. Emerging markets are in a cyclical bear market within the context of a secular bear market.

Cyclical Downdraft in Midst of Secular Bull Market for EM

Page 7: Cutting Through the Fog of the Global Equity Markets Atlantic Connection Conference

Global Equity Markets in a Bipolar Landscape (continued)

7

2. Developed countries are in a cyclical bull market within the context of a secular bear market.

Cyclical Bull Market in Midst of Secular Bear Market

Page 8: Cutting Through the Fog of the Global Equity Markets Atlantic Connection Conference

Emerging Countries Have Superior Macro and OK Market Fundamentals

8

Page 9: Cutting Through the Fog of the Global Equity Markets Atlantic Connection Conference

Macro Economic Profile: G7 too Cold. Emerging and Developing Economies Too “Hot” But Recent Monetary Tightening Has Begun to Take Effect

9

Credit Growth (YOY) Inflation (YOY)

Quarterly Real GDP Growth (Annualized)

Employment Growth (YOY)

Source: IMF

Page 10: Cutting Through the Fog of the Global Equity Markets Atlantic Connection Conference

Monetary Tightening Measures to Combat Inflation Gradually Taking Hold

10

Page 11: Cutting Through the Fog of the Global Equity Markets Atlantic Connection Conference

U.S. Tracking Aftermath of Previous Credit/Housing Busts

11Source: MRB Partners

Based on average data from 4 credit/housing busts: Finland in 1989; Norway in 1989; Sweden in 1991 and U.K. in 1991.

Page 12: Cutting Through the Fog of the Global Equity Markets Atlantic Connection Conference

Despite Considerable Investor Skepticism, Promising Earnings Outlook Should Sustain Halting Bull Market, Particularly with Positive Liquidity Support in U.S.

12

Elevated ERP in Late 2008 and in May 2010. While clearly rising as a result of heightened uncertainty, the current ERP level has not breached the mid 2010 level

Page 13: Cutting Through the Fog of the Global Equity Markets Atlantic Connection Conference

Base Case: Subpar Recovery & Mid to High Single Digit Equity Returns

13

Page 14: Cutting Through the Fog of the Global Equity Markets Atlantic Connection Conference

Euro Area: Growth in North. Rest, Source of Intermittent Market Volatility

14

• Debt crisis highlights contradictions of imposing a common currency regime on vastly different country growth profiles, scant fiscal integration, limited labor market mobility and inadequate political amalgamation

•€120 billion bailout package should buy Greece some time but unlikely to generate sufficient growth to meet outstanding debt expiring after 2012.

• If contagion is limited, crisis will continue to spur intermittent volatility. If Italy and Spain drawn in, world wide financial stability will be threatened.

Page 15: Cutting Through the Fog of the Global Equity Markets Atlantic Connection Conference

Japan Faces Structural Challenges But With Surge in Post Earthquake Production Activity, Represents a Short Term Value Opportunity

15

Debt as % of GDP over 200%

Sharp pickup in post Earthquake Production and Profits

Current valuations at significant discount to Global Markets

Page 16: Cutting Through the Fog of the Global Equity Markets Atlantic Connection Conference

Conclusions

16

Region Cyclical Equity Market Recommendation

Secular Equity Market Recommendation

U.S. Overweight Neutral

Europe Underweight (except Germany and selective northern counties)

Underweight (except countries leveraged to Germany)

Japan Neutral Underweight

EM Underweight (till Inflation and particularly food prices decisively roll over)

Overweight

Frontier Markets

Overweight (Avoid volatile MENA region)

Overweight