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Current Watches and Warnings A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Sebastian Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Anna Maria Island; Florida Keys; Lake Okeechobee; Florida Bay; Southeastern Bahamas; Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, and Villa Clara; Central Bahamas; Northwestern Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect from north of Sebastian Inlet to the Flagler/Volusia County Line; north of Anna Maria Island to the Suwannee River; Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas and Matanzas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect from Sebastian Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Venice; Florida Keys

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect from north of Sebastian Inlet to the Flagler/Volusia County line; north of Venice to Anclote River; Tampa Bay

Current Details from the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

COORDINATES: 22.1° north, 76.5° west LOCATION: 345 miles (555 kilometers) southeast of Miami, Florida MOVEMENT: west at 12 mph (19 kph) WINDS: 155 mph (250 kph) with gusts to 185 mph (295 kph) RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS: 185 miles (295 kilometers) RADIUS OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS: 70 miles (110 kilometers) MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 925 millibars SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE RANKING*: Category 4 Hurricane 24-HOUR LANDFALL POTENTIAL: HIGH 24-HOUR SIGNIFICANT INSURED LOSS POTENTIAL: HIGH

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Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 2

Latest Satellite Picture

Source: NOAA

Discussion Hurricane Irma, located approximately 345 miles (555 kilometers) southeast of Miami, Florida, is currently tracking west at 12 mph (19 kph). Latest data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane from a few hours ago indicate that Irma's intensity continues to fluctuate. The NHC has maintained an initial intensity of 155 mph (250 kph) – just shy of Category 5 strength. The last minimum central pressure was 925 mb. Another reconnaissance plane is currently en route and will provide new details on Irma soon.

The environment is favorable for Irma to maintain its Category 4 status, and only unpredictable eyewall replacement cycles could result in intensity fluctuations during the next 48 hours. The interaction of the hurricane's circulation with Cuba will probably not result in any relevant change in intensity. In summary, the NHC forecast brings Irma near South Florida as a high-end Category 4 hurricane. After landfall, interaction with land and an increase in wind shear should induce gradual weakening.

Satellite images and radar fixes from Cuba indicate that Irma has slowed down and is now moving toward the west. The hurricane should continue on this track for the next 12 hours to 24 hours, and will bring the core of Irma very close to the north coast of Cuba. After that time, Irma should reach the southwestern edge of the steering ridge of high pressure and begin to move toward the northwest and north-northwest toward the Florida peninsula. The precise moment of this turn is still uncertain, and that is why NHC emphasizes that nobody should focus on the exact track of the center. This afternoon's NHC forecast was again adjusted a little bit westward following the trend of the ECMWF (Euro) model.

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Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 3

Key Messages from the National Hurricane Center

1. Irma will continue to bring life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards to portions of the Bahamas and the north coast of Cuba, especially over the adjacent Cuban Keys, through Saturday.

2. Irma is expected to make landfall in Florida as an extremely dangerous major hurricane, and will bring life-threatening wind impacts to much of the state regardless of the exact track of the center.

3. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation in southern Florida and the Florida Keys during the next 36 hours, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. The threat of significant storm surge flooding along the southwest coast of Florida has increased, and 8 to 12 feet of inundation above ground level is possible in this area. This is a life-threatening situation. Everyone in these areas should take all actions to protect life and property from rising water and follow evacuation instructions from local officials.

4. Irma is expected to produce very heavy rain and inland flooding. Total rain accumulations of 8 to 15 inches, with isolated amounts of 20 inches are expected over the Florida Keys and much of the Florida peninsula through Tuesday night. The highest amounts are expected over the eastern Florida peninsula and upper Florida Keys. Irma will likely bring periods of heavy rain to much of Georgia, South Carolina, and western North Carolina early next week, including some mountainous areas which are more prone to flash flooding. All areas seeing heavy rainfall from Irma will experience a risk of flooding and flash flooding.

Additional Information

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide:

SW Florida from Captiva to Cape Sable: 8 to 12 feet Cape Sable to Boca Raton including the Florida Keys: 5 to 10 feet Venice to Captiva: 5 to 8 feet Anclote River to Venice including Tampa Bay: 3 to 5 feet Boca Raton to Flagler/Volusia County line: 3 to 6 feet

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.

The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Southeastern and central Bahamas: 15 to 20 feet Northwestern Bahamas: 5 to 10 feet Northern coast of Cuba in the warning area: 5 to 10 feet

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Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 4

WIND: Hurricane conditions are still occurring in portions of the southeastern and Central Bahamas. Hurricane conditions are expected to continue within the hurricane warning area along the north coast of Cuba through Saturday. Hurricane conditions are expected in the northwestern Bahamas tonight and Saturday, and in portions of southern and central Florida and the Florida Keys Saturday night or early Sunday.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in central and north Florida by Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Saturday.

RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Tuesday night:

Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Turks and Caicos: additional 1 to 3 inches Southern Bahamas and northern Cuba: 10 to 15 inches (isolated 20 inches) Southern Cuba: 4 to 8 inches (isolated 12 inches) Jamaica: 1 to 2 inches Florida Keys, much of the Florida peninsula, & southeast Georgia: 8 to 15 inches (isolated 20 inches) Western and Northern Florida peninsula from Tampa northward: 4 to 8 inches (isolated 12 inches) Rest of Eastern Georgia, western South Carolina, & Western North Carolina: 4 to 7 inches Western Georgia, eastern and northern Alabama, and southern Tennessee: 2 to 5 inches

In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and, in some areas, mudslides.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible beginning Saturday morning across south Florida.

SURF: Swells generated by Irma are affecting the southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the northern coast of the Dominican Republic, and should start affecting portions of the southeast coast of the United States tonight.

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Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 5

National Hurricane Center Forecast

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Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 6

Most Likely Arrival Time of Tropical Storm-Force Winds

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Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 7

National Hurricane Center: Wind Speed Probabilities

Tropical Storm-Force Wind Probabilities (≥40 mph (65 kph))

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Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 8

Wind Probabilities (≥60 mph (95 kph))

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Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 9

Hurricane-Force Wind Probabilities (≥75 mph (120 kph))

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Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 10

NHC: Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic

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Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 11

NHC: Storm Surge Inundation Graphic

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Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 12

Weather Prediction Center: Rainfall Potential

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Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 13

Current ‘Spaghetti’ Model Output Data

Source: NHC

Additional Information and Update Schedule Wind intensity forecasts and forecast track information can be found via the National Hurricane Center at www.nhc.noaa.gov

NEXT CAT ALERT: Saturday morning after 10:00 AM Central Time (15:00 UTC).

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Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 14

*Tropical Cyclone Intensity Classifications for Global Basins WIND SPEED BASINS AND MONITORING BUREAU

KTS1 MPH1 KPH1

NE Pacific, Atlantic

NW Pacific

NW Pacific

SW Pacific Australia SW

Indian North Indian

National Hurricane

Center (NHC)

Joint Typhoon Warning

Center (JTWC)

Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)

Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS)

Bureau Of Meteorology

(BOM) Meteo-France

(MF)

India Meteorological

Department (IMD)

30 35 55 Tropical Depression

Tropical Depression

Tropical Depression

Tropical Depression

Tropical Low

Tropical Depression

Deep Depression

35 40 65

Tropical Storm

Tropical Storm

Tropical Storm

Cat. 1 Tropical Cyclone

Cat. 1 Tropical Cyclone

Moderate Tropical Storm

Cyclonic Storm 40 45 75

45 50 85

50 60 95 Severe Tropical Storm

Cat. 2 Tropical Cyclone

Cat. 2 Tropical Cyclone

Severe Tropical Storm

Severe Cyclonic Storm

55 65 100

60 70 110

65 75 120

Cat. 1 Hurricane

Typhoon

Typhoon

Cat. 3 Severe Tropical Cyclone

Cat. 3 Severe Tropical Cyclone

Tropical Cyclone

Very Severe

Cyclonic Storm

70 80 130

75 85 140

80 90 150

85 100 160

Cat. 2 Hurricane 90 105 170

Cat. 4 Severe Tropical Cyclone

Cat. 4 Severe Tropical Cyclone Intense

Tropical Cyclone

95 110 175

100 115 185

Cat. 3 Major

Hurricane

105 120 195

110 125 205

Cat. 5 Severe Tropical Cyclone

Cat. 5 Severe Tropical Cyclone

115 130 210

120 140 220

Cat. 4 Major

Hurricane Very Intense Tropical Cyclone

Super Cyclonic Storm

125 145 230

130 150 240

Super Typhoon

135 155 250

140 160 260 Cat. 5 Major

Hurricane >140 >160 >260

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Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 15

About Aon Benfield

Aon Benfield, a division of Aon plc (NYSE: AON), is the world’s leading reinsurance intermediary and full-service capital advisor. We empower our clients to better understand, manage and transfer risk through innovative solutions and personalized access to all forms of global reinsurance capital across treaty, facultative and capital markets. As a trusted advocate, we deliver local reach to the world’s markets, an unparalleled investment in innovative analytics, including catastrophe management, actuarial and rating agency advisory. Through our professionals’ expertise and experience, we advise clients in making optimal capital choices that will empower results and improve operational effectiveness for their business. With more than 80 offices in 50 countries, our worldwide client base has access to the broadest portfolio of integrated capital solutions and services. To learn how Aon Benfield helps empower results, please visit aonbenfield.com. Copyright © by Impact Forecasting® No claim to original government works. The text and graphics of this publication are provided for informational purposes only. While Impact Forecasting® has tried to provide accurate and timely information, inadvertent technical inaccuracies and typographical errors may exist, and Impact Forecasting® does not warrant that the information is accurate, complete or current. The data presented at this site is intended to convey only general information on current natural perils and must not be used to make life-or-death decisions or decisions relating to the protection of property, as the data may not be accurate. Please listen to official information sources for current storm information. This data has no official status and should not be used for emergency response decision-making under any circumstances. Cat Alerts use publicly available data from the internet and other sources. Impact Forecasting® summarizes this publicly available information for the convenience of those individuals who have contacted Impact Forecasting® and expressed an interest in natural catastrophes of various types. To find out more about Impact Forecasting or to sign up for the Cat Reports, visit Impact Forecasting’s webpage at impactforecasting.com. Copyright © by Aon plc.

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