Craig Morris Petite Planète petiteplanete

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Craig Morris Petite Planète www.petiteplanete.org Ukraine’s Energy Future Sep 13, 2012 “Energiewende” The German energy transition – what can other countries learn?

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Craig Morris Petite Planète www.petiteplanete.org. Ukraine’s Energy Future Sep 13, 2012. “ Energiewende ” The German energy transition – what can other countries learn?. Craig Morris, Petite Planète , www.petiteplanete.org The German energy transition, Kiev. Ukraine’s Energy Future - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Craig Morris Petite  Planète petiteplanete

Craig MorrisPetite Planètewww.petiteplanete.org

Ukraine’s Energy Future

Sep 13, 2012

“Energiewende”

The German energy transition – what can other

countries learn?

Page 2: Craig Morris Petite  Planète petiteplanete

Craig Morris, Petite Planète, www.petiteplanete.orgThe German energy transition, Kiev

Ukraine’s Energy Future

Sep 13, 2012

Renewables International: news in renewables in Germany and abroad every workday

www.renewablesinternational.net

Page 3: Craig Morris Petite  Planète petiteplanete

Craig Morris, Petite Planète, www.petiteplanete.orgThe German energy transition, Kiev

Ukraine’s Energy Future

Sep 13, 2012

Website on German energy transition for Heinrich Böll Foundation end of October

Page 4: Craig Morris Petite  Planète petiteplanete

Craig Morris, Petite Planète, www.petiteplanete.orgThe German energy transition, Kiev

Solar and PV already close to baseload demand; will cut into baseload within decade when targets are met.

Combined installed wind+PV will exceed peak demand by 25% Peak power demand

winter/summer/baseloadInstalled onshore wind,

2011/target/offshoreInstalled PV, 2011/target0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Baseload40 GW

Wind 29 GWPV 25 GW

Summer peak70 GW

Target onshore46 GW

PV target 52 GW

Nov peak 80 GW

Target offshore10 GW

Page 5: Craig Morris Petite  Planète petiteplanete

Craig Morris, Petite Planète, www.petiteplanete.orgThe German energy transition, Kiev

Not April Fools: Renewables already increasingly cut into baseload, such as on Sunday, April 1.

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Craig Morris, Petite Planète, www.petiteplanete.orgThe German energy transition, Kiev

What happened at 4 pm on April 1?

Left: solar power production

Right: wind power

Visit EEX Transparency website

Page 7: Craig Morris Petite  Planète petiteplanete

Craig Morris, Petite Planète, www.petiteplanete.orgThe German energy transition, Kiev

The result was negative prices at 4 pm.

Good: firms benefit from low wholesale prices thanks to RE

Bad: Investments in dispatchable conventional power less attractive

Page 8: Craig Morris Petite  Planète petiteplanete

Craig Morris, Petite Planète, www.petiteplanete.orgThe German energy transition, Kiev

RE shaves peaks, lowering wholesale prices (merit-order effect).

Wind (light green) and solar (yellow) complement each other well.

Source: Bruno Burger, Fraunhofer ISE

Page 9: Craig Morris Petite  Planète petiteplanete

Craig Morris, Petite Planète, www.petiteplanete.orgThe German energy transition, Kiev

RE shaves peaks, lowering wholesale prices (merit-order effect).

Wind (blue) and solar (orange) complement each other well.

Source: Bernard Chabot, Renewables International

Page 10: Craig Morris Petite  Planète petiteplanete

Craig Morris, Petite Planète, www.petiteplanete.orgThe German energy transition, Kiev

Conclusions:

If Ukraine has ~22 GW summer peak demand, 11 GW of wind and 11 of solar in Ukraine should have similar effect

Germany remains power exporter; grid stability best in EU (world?); CO2 emissions dropped again in 2011 despite nuclear phase-out

In mid-2012, Germany had 30 GW of wind and 29 of PV, each roughly equal to 50% of average demand (60-70 GW)

At 50%, RE offsets peak and medium load, lowers wholesale prices

Above that level, RE increasingly cuts into baseload Increasingly, RE power will have to be stored or lost PV currently makes up 5.3% of power supply, so 10% is

feasible, but more will increasingly require (seasonal) storage

Countries with lots of air-conditioning (USA) have greater summer than winter peaks, so larger share of PV is possible there

Wind now makes up around 8% in Germany, ~20% easily feasible (assuming grid integration)