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Coupling Statistical Models with Pl l i lIf tiPaleoecological … · 2010-08-24 · P33 Whipray...
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Coupling Statistical Models with P l l i l I f ti APaleoecological Information - A
Synthesis of Pre-drainage Hydrology y g y gyand Salinity Estimates in the Greater
Everglades EcosystemEverglades Ecosystem
Past, Present & Future Hydrology: Modeling & ApplicationGEER 2010
July 13, 2010
Frank Marshall, CLFLynn Wingard, USGS
Cheryl Buckingham, RECOVER, ACOE
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Paleo Work Plan in Everglades N i l P k (ENP)National Park (ENP)
• Use paleoecological information andUse paleoecological information and empirical statistical analysis to develop independent estimates of pre-drainage h d l d li i (2006 )hydrology and salinity (2006-current)
• Compile all estimates in a synthesis of pre-d i diti i i ht fdrainage conditions using a weight-of-evidence approach (2010-2012)
• Incorporate climate change to estimate the• Incorporate climate change to estimate the pre-drainage salinity regime in a higher sea level environment (future)( )
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Progress To-DateNew since GEER 2008New since GEER 2008
Core LocationFaunal Assemblages
Basic Cluster Age Model CWP LRM
New since GEER 2008New since GEER 2008
Basic Cluster Age Model CWP LRM
Bob Allen Mudbank USGS & FIU) (FIU)
Crocodile Point In progress In progressMud Creek Core Not quantitative
Park Key 1900 data gap
Pass Key Post 1900
Rankin Bight In progress Rankin Basin full Russell Bank full Schooner Bank In progress In progress
Taylor Creek Whipray Basin full Whipray Basin full
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Work Completed To-date and U i (F d d)Upcoming (Funded)
• Focus – Florida Bay, Shark / Harney Rivers,Focus Florida Bay, Shark / Harney Rivers, Shark River and Taylor Sloughs
• 4 cores analyzed to-date, all in the Bay –This y , yPresentation
• 1 more core ahead for the Bay, then a synthesis of all 5
• 3 cores upcoming in Shark / Harney, then a th isynthesis
• 2 cores in Shark River and Taylor Sloughs
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Multiple Partners – Funding and p gParticipation
• CESI / ENP• USGS• RECOVER
FIU• FIU
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SHARK RIVER AND
SHARK / HARNEYRIVERS –
SHARK RIVER AND TAYLOR SLOUGHSRIVERS – NEXT STUDY AREARIVERS
NEXT STUDY AREA
Study Area –
Everglades N ti lNational
ParkTHIS STUDY AREA -FLORIDA BAY
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The Problem – Freshwater Reduction t th E l dto the Everglades
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Available Data in Everglades National ParkNational Park
• Sediment cores• Stage and flow in Everglades• Salinity in Florida Bay and Shark / Harney y y y
Rivers
STUDY AREA
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Florida Bay Paleoecological Data: USGS/FIU Sediment CoresUSGS/FIU Sediment Cores
USGS= USGS
= FIU
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Shark / Harney Rivers Paleo Data: USGS S di CUSGS Sediment Cores
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Stage and Flow DataStage and Flow DataTAMIAMI TRAIL FLOW
STAGE IN SHARK RIVER
SHARK RIVER SLOUGH
STAGE IN SHARK RIVER& TAYLOR SLOUGHS
SLOUGH
TAYLOR SLOUGHSLOUGHBRIDGE FLOW
TAYLOR SLOUGH
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Existing SalinityDataData
Everglades National Park Marine Monitoring Network StationsStations
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Existing SalinitySalinity Data
•• SERC / FIU monthly grab samples – water qualitySERC / FIU monthly grab samples water quality•FATHOM nutrient model regions from PCA
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Paleosalinity ProcedurePaleosalinity Procedure
• 3 Phases• 8 Stepsp• Jan 2009EstuariesEstuariesAndCoasts
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ProductsProducts
• Paleo-based estimates ofPaleo based estimates of– Salinity in Florida Bay– Stage in Shark River and Taylor SloughsStage in Shark River and Taylor Sloughs– Flow at Tamiami Trail and Taylor Slough Bridge
required to achieve these conditions– Resultant flows in creeks for input to FATHOM
• ‘Paleo-based’ hydrology means estimate of y gyhydrology needed to meet circa 1900 salinity conditions given current operating conditions
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Florida Bay Paleo- Analyses C l d T dCompleted To-date
Fl id B C A i t d S li it D t St tiFlorida Bay CoresWhipray BasinBob Allen KeyRankin Lake
Associated Salinity Data StationMMN WBMMN BAMMN BKRankin Lake
Russell BankPark KeyCrocodile Point
MMN BKSERC 22N/AN/ACrocodile Point
Taylor Creek T24
= USED FOR SYNTHESIS
N/AMMN LM
= SUPPORTING INFORMATION
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Step 1 – Develop PaleosalinityStep 1 Develop Paleosalinity• Use sediment core analysis to estimate circa 1900 y
average salinity– Age models
C i– Casuarina– Faunal assemblage characterization
• Use NSM 4 6 2 and MLR salinity models as baseUse NSM 4.6.2 and MLR salinity models as base for time series– Add or subtract bias to/from NSM/MLR time series– Mean value of adjusted NSM/MLR = paleosalinity– NSM/MLR daily variability supplies the variation
around the adjusted meanaround the adjusted mean
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Salinity Comparison* Bias is removed from NSM462 before MLR simulation
Salinity ComparisonObservedSalinity
NSM462 /MLR
Core Station
SalinityPORMean
PaleosalinityFrom Core
MLR Salinity*
(1965-2000)
Whipray Basin WB 36.4 23.4 31.9
Rankin Lake BK 35.2 27.7 30.4
Russell Bank SERC22 32.1 28.2 28.1
Taylor Creek T24 LM 24.2 15.4 17.7
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Whipray Basin Paleosalinity Simulated vs. Observed
60
20
30
40
50
alin
ity (P
SU)
0
10
20
May-64 May-69 May-74 May-79 May-84 May-89 May-94 May-99
Sa
whippaleo whip
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Step 2 - Develop Linking Regression ModelsRegression Models
• Salinity as f (CP and 39)Salinity as f (CP and P33)
• Inverse – CP and P33 1
0
1
2
stag
e (ft
NG
VD29
CP
pcp
as f (salinity)• Flow as f (CP and P33)
-1Sep-98 Sep-99 Sep-00 Sep-01 Sep-02
s
8000• Stage @ other stations as f (CP and P33)Salinity @ other
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
cfs srs
psrs
• Salinity @ other stations as f (salinity subject location)
0
1000
2000
Dec-91 Dec-93 Dec-95 Dec-97 Dec-99
j )
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Step 3 – Input Paleosalinity, Turn Crank Produce 1965-2000Crank, Produce 1965 2000
Simulations
Output of Various Models– Flow at Tamiami Trail and Taylor Slough
Bridge– Stage throughout Shark River and Taylor
Sloughs– Salinity throughout Florida Bay– Creek flows into NE FL Bay
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Model Output – Stage at Primary Stations (CP,P33 at Primary Stations (CP,
P33)CP
P33
StageStation
Paleosalinity Input Data
Paleo Mean(m)
paleo-obs(m)
paleo:observed
CP
Station Input Data (m) (m) observed
P33 Whipray Basin 2.48 0.55 1.28Rankin Lake 2.18 0.25 1.12Russell Bank 2.27 0.21 1.10
Taylor T24 2 29 0 45 1 27Taylor T24 2.29 0.45 1.27CP Whipray Basin 0.99 0.60 2.54
Rankin Lake 0.61 0.22 1.73Russell Bank 0.65 0.22 1.49
Taylor T24 0.63 0.27 1.75
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Model Output:
SRS
Model Output:Mean FlowTSB
Flow Station
Paleosalinity Input Data MeanFlow (m3/sec)
paleo:observed
SRS Whipray Basin 115.8 2.73SRS Whipray Basin 115.8 2.73Rankin Lake 96.9 2.28Russell Bank 90.82 1.92
Taylor T24 86.04 2.10TSB Whipray Basin 8.9 3.99
Rankin Lake 5 5 2 40Rankin Lake 5.5 2.40Russell Bank 5.5 2.40
Taylor T24 4.92 3.67
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Taylor Slough Bridge10
12
14ec
)
Monthly4
6
8
flow
(m3/
se tsb obs
ptsb_WBCWP
ptsb_BK
ptsb_22
ptsb LM Monthly Average 0
2
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12month
ptsb_LM
Flow Comparison140
160
180
Comparison
60
80
100
120
flow
(m3
/sec
)
srs
psrs_WBCWP
psrs_BK
psrs 22
Tamiami Trail (srs)0
20
40
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
psrs_22
psrs_LM
WETWETDRY
Tamiami Trail (srs)Month
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Model Output: Stage Difference (paleo-observed) at Other Stations inobserved) at Other Stations in
Everglades
WB paleo
Rankinpaleo
Russell paleo
Taylor paleo
Station Locationpaleo diff(m)
paleo diff (m)
paleo diff (m)
paleo diff (m)
Shark River
G3273 Slough 0.37 0.38 0.37 0.44Shark River
NP206 Slough 0.51 0.43 0.4 0.53
TSHTaylor Slough 0.44 0.30 0.19 0.25
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Output: Paleo-based Salinity Regime in Fl id BFlorida Bay
• Paleo-salinity in FL Bay was modeled by y y yregression models and by FATHOM
• Good agreement between regression models and FATHOM outputand FATHOM output
• Difference between observed salinity and paleo-based salinity ranges from 2 – 12paleo based salinity ranges from 2 12 ppt/psu
• Largest difference is in near-shore b tembayments
• Smallest difference is at west FL Bay stations
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Paleo-based Salinity Regimey gExist WhiprayWhipray RankineRankine RussellRussell Taylor T24Taylor T24
SOURCE: Bulger, Hayden, Monaco, Nelson, McCormackSOURCE: Bulger, Hayden, Monaco, Nelson, McCormack--Ray; Ray; Estuaries Vol. 16, No. 2, p. 311Estuaries Vol. 16, No. 2, p. 311--322 June 1993322 June 1993
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Comparison to Current Flow Target Al iAlternatives
Taylor SloughS B b J h Pl
150000
200000
250000
300000
annu
al a
vg
See: Bob Johnson Plenary8:30-10 AM Wed.
Ed Brown Presentation
0
50000
100000
ac-ft
a
River of Grass4:40-5 PM Tue.
30000003500000
g
Shark River Slough
5000001000000150000020000002500000
ac-ft
ann
ual a
v
River of Grass0
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CLIMATECLIMATE CHANGE GOAL: Determine the
Naturaltrendline
Determine the offset needed for salinity
offsetfor salinity restoration targets taking into account irreversible anthropogenicanthropogenic changes and SLR
Salinity (ppt)
SLR
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Summary – Findings To-dateSummary Findings To date
• The use of sediment faunalThe use of sediment faunal characterizations with regression models has proved to be a useful tool for linking p gpaleosalinity data to upstream hydrology in the Everglades
• Consistent results from paleo evaluations to-date
• The time has come to interpret the results as a package
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Summary – Findings To-datey g
• Currently:• Currently:– Average Everglades stage is about 0.25 -
0.5 m lower.0.5 m lower.– Taylor Slough flow deficit is >>> than the
deficit in Shark River Slough during the dry g g yseason.
– Florida Bay salinity is about 2 – 12 psu hi hhigher.
• Upcoming work in Shark / Harney Rivers and Shark River / Taylor Sloughs will validate orShark River / Taylor Sloughs will validate or modify these findings.
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Summary - Findings To-dateSummary - Findings To-date
• Establishing pre-drainage salinity regime requiresEstablishing pre drainage salinity regime requires about 2 – 2.25 times more freshwater than the current flow regime.
• Result is a more estuarine Florida Bay - mesohaline to polyhaline as opposed to euryhaline current condition
• Restoring flow regime restores hydroperiod and i SRS TSpattern in SRS, TS
• Range of paleo estimates is in line with other ti t f d i h d lestimates of pre-drainage hydrology
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Photo by A. Gelber via D. Deis
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