19/09/2013 1

Sanathanan Rajagopal

DES CAAS-CEF-HOP-CF-8@mod.uk

Cost of Software Obsolescence

What is Obsolescence ?

Transition from availability from the original manufacturer to

unavailability - IEC 62402:20071

Obsolescence Management is the coordinated activities to direct and control an organisations with regard to obsolescence

19/09/2013 2

Obsolescence The Threat

Obsolescence is bigger issue than reliability- British Airways Engineering

Obsolescence is now one of the biggest threats to the future of many sectors of industry BAE System

Obsolescence is number 2 risk to the project Eurofighter Typhoon

Slides from Cranfield University

19/09/2013 3

Types of Obsolescence

Skills

Software

Mechanical Components

Electronic Components

Documentations

Tools

Process

Materials

People

19/09/2013 4

19/09/2013 5

Software Obsolescence

The only big companies that succeed will be those that obsolete their product before somebody else does and to be successful we must

obsolete our product.

- Bill Gates 2003

19/09/2013 6

Military Software Dependency

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1960 1964 1970 1975 1982 1990 2000 2010

Year

% F

un

cti

on

s p

ero

rme

d b

y s

oft

wa

re

JSF

B-2

F4

Software v/s Hardware

Software defects are design defects

Software does not have energy related wear-out. Errors can occur without warning

Software reliability is not a function of time

Environmental factors does not effect software reliability

Software reliability cannot be predicted from any physical basis, it depends completely on human factors in design

Software interfaces are purely conceptual other than visual

19/09/2013 7

Software Reliability

Is the probability of failure-free software operation for a specific time

Software is not a function of time

Software reliability is an important attribute to software quality

Software reliability is hard to achieve as software complexity is high

19/09/2013 8

Software Maintainability

It is the ease with

The program can be corrected

Adapted if the environment changes

Enhanced if the customer wants to change

No Direct way to measure software maintainability

19/09/2013 9

19/09/2013 10

Hardware Obsolescence

Software Obsolescence

19/09/2013 11

19/09/2013 12

What is Software Obsolescence ?

When a software is not supported

When software cannot be updated

When there is a change in the hardware

Effect of Software Obsolescence

System3

Software 3

System 2

Software 2

System 1

software1

19/09/2013 13

Software Obsolescence

Software Obsolescence happens due to one of the three main

causes

Functional Obsolescence

Technological Obsolescence

Logistical Obsolescence

19/09/2013 14

Root Cause of Software Obsolescence by P Sandborn

19/09/2013 15

Software Obsolescence

Technological

Purchase

License

Copyright

Support

Technical

Updates

Expansion

Functional

Compatibility

System

Peripherals

Logistical

Infrastructure

Build

Test

Integrate

Distribution

Network

Portable

Software Obsolescence Mitigation and Cost

The following areas of cost/resource/time have to be considered

Mitigation

Software License downgrade

Source Code Purchase

Third Party Purchase

Re-development

Re-qualifying

Re-hosting

Media Management

Case Resolutions

19/09/2013 16

Cost of Software Obsolescence - The Problem

Unavailability of the data related to Software Obsolescence

Inadequate design documentation and configuration

Unavailability of historic cost data associated with Software Obsolescence

Unavailability of Software Obsolescence Management strategy

19/09/2013 17

Likely Key Cost Drivers

Software Maintenance

Sustaining Engineering

Facilities and infrastructure

Software License

Certification and Accreditation

Management

19/09/2013 18

My Research - Aim

The aim of my research is to develop a Model to estimate the cost of

Software Obsolescence at very early stages of the project by

identifying the likely cost drivers. The study will include aspects of

complex software engineering issues such as systems of systems

integration, software maintenance along with risk and uncertainty

analysis

19/09/2013 19

Approach

19/09/2013 20

Proposed findings and Recommendations

Development of Model to estimates the cost of Software Obsolescence

Identify the key source and Cost drivers of Software Obsolescence

Producing new procedures and standards for estimating cost of Software Obsolescence

19/09/2013 21

19/09/2013 22