MANAGEMENT OF OBSOLESCENCE - Tangent...
Transcript of MANAGEMENT OF OBSOLESCENCE - Tangent...
Sequence
Obsolescence case studies Research trend during Life cycle of the system Causes and role of Electronics Obsolescence Mitigation Forecasting and Cost of obsolescence.
Policy guide Manual Solution for Existing Assets Strategy for Future Systems
Definitions A loss in the utility of an asset due to
the development of improved or
superior equipment, but not due
to physical deterioration
The process or condition of going out
of date or being no longer in use the
process of becoming obsolete; falling
into disuse or becoming out dated
On Condition Maintenance (OCM)
Non Invasive Procedure
Extract Relevant Database
Predict Health A path towards an ideal
situation where
minimum “Preventive
Actions” lead to
low “Corrective Actions”
need
PAF Inventory
2006
1986
2003 1981
2006
1985
2007
2008
1998
1987
2007 1994
2006
C-130
Mirage
K-8
F-7PG & FT-7PG
FT-5
JF17
FT-7P
A-5III
F-7P
F-16
Experience on Mirage aircraft
Aircraft inducted in 1967
Obsolesces started appearing in 90’s
Australian Retired aircraft
Spanish Package & Lebanon Stock
Libyan Package
System Upgrades
Avionics Concerns Mirage Avionics Upgrade project designed by SAGEM of France. Three LRUs (HPDU, and MFD) BAE SYSTEMSUD EU, Phenomenal increase in the repair prices (10 times in three years)
Demand for 5-year long-term support package .
After repeated negotiation 7 years support package concluded .
Design authority to provide training for in country repair of PCB’s.
AGAV Radar (for AM-39 'Exocet) Support package.
Achievements
Fleet remained operational to meet National Security requirement
A reactive approach results in high cost.
Difficult to forecast the quantity accurately
Took unwanted stock as a package
Excess or shortage of stock
Customer in a poor negotiation position
Need to change to proactive approach in future
Case Study FT-5 A/C grounded on advice of Chinese
Retired A/C put under storage.
Planned for possible extension of life.
Australian firm (Aerostructures) contracted for 10 % life extension.
Aerostructures quoted $ 3.8 Million.
Price negotiated to $2.1 Million on ‘Work Share’ basis.
Program named as LOTEX: Life Of Type Extension.
USAGE SPECTRUM MONITORING
Usage Spectrum Monitoring provide usage band for the actual flights.
USM would provide stress information at critical locations.
USM Recorders (MAXLIFE) installed on five AIRCRAFT.
Usage data periodically downloaded
ENGINEERING SOLUTION
Every structure depending upon its material, geometry, loading and environment can tolerate certain amount of damage.
‘Fracture Mechanics’ provides us the tools to quantify the property of damage tolerance.
‘ Damage Tolerance’ of an aircraft structure at the end of OEM structural life limit can be figured out.
The prospects of life extension are realized.
ENGINEERING SOLUTION
Finite Element Analysis
Internal Loads Model.
Fine Grid Modeling and Analysis.
Classical Stress Analysis
Loads Analysis
Stress Analysis
Deflection Analysis
Damage Tolerance Analysis (Fracture Mechanics)
Residual Strength Analysis
Crack Growth Analysis
Lesson Learned Excellent contribution from All Stakeholders.
Knowledge Transfer gave a new dimension to in vogue engineering practices.
As envisioned, PAF capability in the area of Structural Integrity enhanced.
Damage Tolerance Analysis by joint team of engineers.
Program Management experience at Aeronautical Research Center
LOTEX is a step forward in the direction for achieving self-reliance in A/C Structural Integrity.
LIFE CYCLE PROJECT ( CADMID)
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Monitor Effectiveness of OM Activity
Develop, Implement and Periodically Revalidate Obsolescence
Strategy
OBSOLESCENCE CAUSES Aging Systems
Rapid changes in technology
Uneconomical production requirements
Environmental or safety Constraints (ROHS)
Deferred Modernization
ELECTRONIC OBSOLESCENCE
Electronic industry most dynamic sector.
Electronic parts have shorter life cycles.
Average cost to redesign a circuit card is $250,000
Study on AS900 by Honeywell International
Assume no obsolescence $ 4.24M
Design refresh $ 31.12M
Aftermarket source buy $51.16M
Obsolescence management strategy is needed
Obsolescence Mitigation Enhance weapon system through upgrades based on reuse of the existing design, especially the software.
Older Hardware replacement for fewer items
Specialist engineers to study proposed components
Lifetime buy and possible partnering with supplier.
Close cooperation required between suppliers, integrators and manufacturers
Develop Obsolescence Management Plan (OMP)
Collaboration and solution sharing exchanges across Allied Nations and their supply chains.
Policy Guide for obsolescence Management Policy guide by Joint Obsolescence Management Working Group given
in the Manual Obsolescence Impact Assessment provides understanding of current
health and prediction of future problems
Low Risk (Reactive Approach) Existing Stock • Reclamation • Equivalent • Alternative • Minor
Redesign • Major Design •Last Time Buy.
Medium /High Risk (Proactive approach ) Design Considerations • Technology Transparency • Obsolescence
Monitoring • Planned System Upgrades
Obsolescence Management Plan (OMP)
Forecasting And Cost Estimates
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•Factors to be considered
Type and complexity, Technology , number of suppliers
and laws and regulations.
• Available commercial tools (Q-star, IHS)
•Contracting for availability and Risk shared
•Estimations of the obsolescence cost at bidding stage
•Commercial tools for life cycle costs (True Planning/SEER)
•QinetiQ and ARINC assigned to derive cost metrics
Solutions for Existing Systems
Reactive Approach
Buy from Stock, Reclamation
Repair or Overhaul
F3I
Reverse Engineering
Redesign and
Information sharing and supply chain management
Conduct market surveys to stay abreast of technology advances.
Cost and forecasting Tools
Strategy for New Systems
Organisation to issue policy for Obsolescence Management (OM) .
Project Teams responsibilities
Carry out Risk assessment to determine the risk to equipment from obsolescence.
Decide Reactive or proactive approach or both.
Develop and Implement Strategy
Measure Performance of OMP
References Maintenance, repair, and operations-Wikipedia, the free
encyclopedia.mht
MAINTENANCE, REPAIR, AND OVERHAUL, MRO, AIRCRAFT MAINTENANCE, AEROSPACE.mht
Managing the Aging Aircraft Problem-John W. Lincoln(Aeronautical Systems Center)
Aircraft Maintenance Practices, NQF Level 3: BTEC National
Guide book issued by DMSMS
Avionics Architecture Standards as an Approach to Obsolescence Management. By D.J.Jibb, J.B.Walker