Copyright 2015 T3P LIMITED 1 · MARK STEVENSON: AN OPTIMIST’S TOUR OF THE FUTURE 10 © Copyright...

© Copyright 2015 T3P LIMITED

“Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful.”

George Edward Pelham Box(1919.10.18–2013.03.28) was a British mathematician and Professor of Statistics at the University of Wisconsin. He was a pioneer in the areas of quality control, time series analysis, design of experiments and Bayesian inference.

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There is a naïve belief that mathematical models can foretell future risks…

…but they ignore ‘outliers’, include too few variables and use simplified assumptions

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“Now, something too good to be true is often mistakenly

assumed to be the result of a super-intelligent, complex

quant analyses.”

MANAGING EXTREME FINANCIAL RISK BY KARAMJEET PAUL

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RISK MANAGEMENTIS ABOUT

MANAGING THE FUTURE

Assessing and managing the risk of: • not being paid in the future for

goods delivered, or • not being compensated for

transactions repudiated in the future.

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THE FUTURE DOES NOT EXIST

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Only the Present ExistsOne moment at a time


CHANGE HAS CHANGED

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LEADING THE REVOLUTION © 2000 GARY HAMEL

No longer is it additive.

No longer does it move in a straight line.

In the twenty-first century, change is discontinuous, abrupt, seditious.


Acknowledging Change

“The world is transforming around you. The truth is, the thing(s) you did to get (where you are) will no longer work to keep you there.”

This is something they call ‘The Big Shift’ which is already affecting every aspect of society

MARK STEVENSON: AN OPTIMIST’S TOUR OF THE FUTURE10


Mark Stevenson’s New Philosophy

• Embrace the exponential• Adopt a questing disposition• Measure my value by what I create,

not what I own• Evolution isn’t over• Institutions that don’t innovate will die




• Embrace the exponential



EXPONENTIAL CHANGE

VS

LINEAR CHANGE


The Speed & Quantum of Change“If you look at progress in genome sequencing for example — itself an interplay of infotech, nanotech and biotech — it’s outstripping Moore’s Law* by a factor of four.(Therefore) What I think is more important to pay attention to is how all these disciplines are blurring together sometimes creating hyper-exponential growth.”

MARK STEVENSON: INTERVIEW BY R U SIRIUS IN JULY 2011*The number of transistors in an integrated circuit doubles +/- every two years

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The Speed & Quantum of Change

‘… interplay of infotech, nanotech and biotech…’

‘… how all these disciplines are blurring together sometimes creating hyper-exponential growth.’

MARK STEVENSON: INTERVIEW BY R U SIRIUS IN JULY 201115



• Institutions that don’t innovate will die



NADYA ZHEXEMBAYEVA IN HER TED TALK TITLED TO HOLD ON, LET GO, IN APRIL 2015 - VIEW THE TALK AT:

https://youtu.be/f4kySpcdvFg

To Hold On, Let GoForget ‘built to last’. Build to reinvent

“The business you are in today (will) not be the business you’ll be in three and a half years from now.”

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“We must remake who we are, what we offer, and how we deliver our offerings to the world.

Take the essence of what you are, and let go of everything else.”

NADYA ZHEXEMBAYEVA


THE DEMANDS OF CHANGE

“… (in) running the business, old processes were focussed on.

We needed new processes that were focussed on changing the business.” Vineet Nayar CEO of HCL Technologies.

GARY HAMEL: WHAT MATTERS NOW - HOW TO WIN IN A WORLD OF RELENTLESS CHANGE, FEROCIOUS

COMPETITION AND UNSTOPPABLE INNOVATION 18


IGNORED EXTERNAL CHANGE

“In the face of rapid change and globalisation, data driven risk management methods alone are no longer adequate.”

RON WELLS: THE CHAMELEON IN THE ROOM EMBRACE BUSINESS RISK – ENSURE SURVIVAL & GROWTH 19


UNKNOWN UNKNOWNS

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UNQUANTIFIABLE UNCERTAINTY

Risk from unquantifiable uncertainty cannot be modelled, therefore cannot

be covered by traditional risk management practices or insurance.

THE CHAMELEON IN THE ROOM BY RON WELLS

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Risk from unquantifiable uncertainty cannot be modelled, therefore cannot be covered by revenues generated.

MANAGING EXTREME FINANCIAL RISK BY KARAMJEET PAUL

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It takes Courage to take a Risk – Not Numbers

LIFE'S A PITCH BY STEPHEN BAYLEY & ROGER MAVITY

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If you can’t hide behind numbers, how can you find the courage to make a decision?

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How do you defend your decisions?

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Only the Present ExistsOne moment at a time


AnticipateAlternative Futures

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THE FUTURE

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Past Decisions shaped the Foundation

Brave Decisions taken by 7 billion people

interacting with Nature and Major Impact Events shape

The Future


Noitanigami

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OPPORTUNITY, MOTIVE & MEANS TO PERFORM

Opportunity: Sufficiently hedged to tolerate any

Potential Future Exposure

Motive: Motivated to meet its commitments

Means: The financial means to pay ‘performance

failure compensation’


MEANS, MOTIVE AND OPPORTUNITY TO PAY = M2O

The means to pay when the invoice is due

The motivation to pay when the invoice is due

The opportunity to pay when the invoice is due



Risk from unquantifiable uncertainty cannot be modelled, therefore cannot

be covered by traditional risk management practices or insurance.

THE CHAMELEON IN THE ROOM BY RON WELLS

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“The future is already here — it's just not very evenly distributed.”

William Gibson - 1993

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“The future is already here — it's just not very evenly distributed.”


“The future is not Google-able.”


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“Scenarios are learning stories ... the process of working through them

(and) experiencing them, is as important as the conclusions.”

Quotation from Russia 2010 and what it means for the Worldby Daniel Yergin & Thane Gustafson © 1993, 1995 Cambridge Energy Research Associates.

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MORE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON Barrettwells.co.uk see webpage: http://www.barrettwells.co.uk/credit_2010.html#SCENARIO%20PLANNING


“You can’t outrun the Future if you don’t see it coming.”

GARY HAMEL: WHAT MATTERS NOW - HOW TO WIN IN A WORLD OF RELENTLESS

CHANGE, FEROCIOUS COMPETITION AND UNSTOPPABLE INNOVATION

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THE CHAMELEON IN THE ROOM

PUBLISHED ON JULY 8 2015

This book presents alternative ways to cope with the diabolical array of risks that threaten non-financial businesses; including some seldom written about to date; e.g. Black Swan Events.

Look inside using this link: http://www.book2look.de/book/XDU8RVItrX

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In the face of rapid change and globalisation, data driven risk management methods alone are no longer adequate.


Disclaimer:The information provided in this document and the associated live presentation has been derived from sourcesbelieved to be accurate and reliable. Such information is provided "as is" without warranty of any kind and T3PLIMITED and/or its Associate(s) make no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy,timeliness, completeness, merchantability or fitness for any particular purpose of the information. Under nocircumstances do T3P LIMITED and/or its Associate(s) have any liability to any person or entity for (a) any loss ordamage in whole or in part caused by, resulting from, or relating to, any error or other circumstance or contingencywithin or outside the control of T3P LIMITED and/or its Associate(s) in connection with the procurement, collection,compilation, analysis, interpretation, editing, transcription, transmission, communication, publication or delivery of anysuch information, or (b) any direct, indirect, special, consequential, compensatory, or incidental damages whatsoever(including without limitation, lost profits).

T3P LIMITEDCompany Number: 04344371Registered in England & Wales1st Floor MIDAS House62 Goldsworth RoadWoking Surrey GU21 6LQUnited Kingdom Email: [email protected]: www.t3plimited.com

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Copyright 2015 T3P LIMITED 1 · MARK STEVENSON: AN OPTIMIST’S TOUR OF THE FUTURE 10 © Copyright...

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