COP21: Are we Tackling the

Causes of Global Warming

Effectively?

Sir David King UK Foreign Secretary’s Special Representative for Climate

Change

Chair, Future Cities Catapult

Implications of ‘L’Appel de Paris’ for the future of real estate.

Real Estate Forum, , UK Sustainability Council.

K&L Gates, One New Change, London EC4M 9AF

29th February 2016

UNCLASSIFIED

The Paris Agreement

Long Term Goal

The Paris agreement aims to hold the increase in global average temperatures well below 2°C and to pursue efforts to limit the increase to 1.5°C.

Emissions

To achieve the temperature goal greenhouse gas emissions should peak as soon as possible and rapidly reduce thereafter to achieve a balance between emissions and ‘sinks’ in the second half of this century.

Review Mechanism

Every five years Parties will update their Nationally Determined Contributions informed by a stock-take of global progress. Successive Contributions shall represent a progression beyond the existing Contribution.

The Paris Agreement

Finance

Developed countries shall provide financial resources to assist developing countries reduce emissions and adapt to climate impacts. This will be ‘at least’ $100 billion per year after 2020 with a review in 2025.

Differentiation

Developed countries should continue to take the lead in the reduction emissions with developing countries enhancing their efforts in light of different national circumstances.

Loss and Damage

Parties recognised the importance of averting, minimising and addressing loss and damage associated with climate impacts.

Some important agreements outside the UNFCCC process.

• New York Forests Declaration.

• Expansion of Carbon Pricing Activities around the world

• UK-USA Agreement on Energy Africa/Power Africa, to assist African Governments to roll out Clean Energy to off-grid villages across Africa, reaching 620 mn people by 2030.

• Mission Innovation

Cumulative total anthropogenic CO2 emissions from 1870

(GtCO2)

15

20

25

30

35

40

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Gig

ato

nn

es p

.a.

Forecast

Required path

COP21 International INDCs to 2030, compared

with global carbon budgets

UNCLASSIFIED

UK actions, commitments

• 1997 renewables obligation on grid;• 2001 foundation of The Carbon Trust.• 2003, 2007 Energy White Papers; feed-in tariffs; Dept of Energy &

Climate Change formed. • 2005 Gleneagles G8, topics Climate Change and Development,

commitment to raise ODA to 0.7% GDP. 2008, Clim Ch Act of Parliament, incl commitment 80% redn by 2050 & creation of Climate Change Com. International Climate Fund, £3.89bn REFINANCED AT A FURTHER £5.8bn in October 2015..

• 2015 All-party commitment on climate change reaffirmed.Proposal to G7 on RD&D surge for energy storage & smart grids.

• Outcomes: 29% reduction achieved to date; 2028 Carbon Budget means 52% by 2028. Pressure on EU.

• UK aid budget now $17-18bn pa, includes development support with climate resilience. $1.2bn committed to global Green CllimateFund

Long-term commitment to sea level rise

THE NEW LOW CARBON SECTOR• In 2014 more renewable energy was installed worldwide than

fossil fuel.

• In UK: 11,500 companies employing 460,000 people are involved in the new low carbon economy.

• Annual turnover in 2013: about £120 bn.

• This is twice the turnover of our auto-manufacturing industry.

• Annual gross value = the food and drinks industry.

Falling costs for Clean Energy Technologies

David King, John Browne, Richard Layard, Gus O’Donnell,

Martin Rees, Nicholas Stern, Adair Turner

Global Apollo Program becomes Mission Innovation in Paris

• Launched by Obama, Modi, Hollande and Cameron in Paris.

• 20 nations have joined, committed to doubling Clean Energy RD&D by 2020: amounting to annual spend of aprox $20bn.

• Breakthrough Energy Coalition also announced, organised by Bill Gates, up to $20bn total over next 10 years to spin out potential market facing Clean Energy solutions.

• It is hoped that roll-out will be completed in June 2016.

Functionality:

VariaLift Airship

2nd Generation BiofuelsGranbio plant, Brazil –22 mn gallons p.a.

EUROPEAN TEMPERATURES 1900-2100

Source: Hadley Centre

Risk of Crop Failure (Rice)

Risk of fatal heat stress

Probability of exceeding 4°C

Probability of exceeding 7°C