Contrarian Views on Advertising

© 2013 Cheil Worldwide

A Contrarian View...1


Here is a collection of ideas intended to challenge your assumptions.

They are not conclusive answers or an argument against digital.

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“A contrarian is a person who takes up a contrary position, especially a position that is opposed to that of the majority, regardless of how unpopular it may be.”Good ol’ Wikipedia

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A contrarian view on us...(i.e. people who work in advertising)

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© 2013 Cheil Worldwidehttp://martinweigel.org/2013/06/26/if-you-work-in-adland-youre-not-normal-the-evidence/

http://martinweigel.org/2013/06/26/if-you-work-in-adland-youre-not-normal-the-evidence/



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A contrarian view on TV and the 30 second spot...

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Anyone remember this book?9

Published 2005


The debate continues...10

Published 2013


“More than half (51%) of UK households now

own a DVR”

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http://www.csimagazine.com/csi/UK-time-shifted-TV-viewing-reaching-peak.php

Sounds plausible, right?



But...


“The average viewer watched 47 ads a day

during 2012”

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and...


“Almost 90% of linear TV in 2012 was

watched live, as it was broadcast”

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“...the average British person now watches an average of four hours and two minutes of TV a day, up

from an average of three hours and 36 minutes a day in 2006.”

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http://www.guardian.co.uk/tv-and-radio/2013/mar/18/britons-own-fewer-tvs-research

Ohh... and.




... on the Measurability of Digital

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Measuring Twitter impressions

‘Impressions’, the standard metric on Twitter, assume that every single person who could possibly have seen a Tweet actually saw it.eg in this case there would be 300 impressions... Really?How many people see even 50% of the Tweets in their feed? Surely a Tweet can’t make an impression unless you actually see it.

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100 Followers

50

Tweet

50 50 50

Retweets


Add to that the fake account issue

20 million fake Twitter accounts!

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http://bit.ly/17x0RsBhttp://bit.ly/17x17rx

http://bit.ly/17x0RsB

http://bit.ly/17x0RsB

http://bit.ly/17x17rx

http://bit.ly/17x17rx


54% of online display ads shown in "thousands" of campaigns measured by

comScore Inc. between May of 2012 and February of this year weren't seen by

anyone, according to a study completed last month.

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http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324904004578537131312357490.html

Why don’t we hear more about this measurement




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Einstein says...

“Not everything that can be counted counts, and not everything that counts can be counted”


...on Real Time Marketing20


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http://www.slideshare.net/michaelgoldstein/0retweets-things-i-hate-about-digital-advertising




..on brand loyalty22


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Double jeopardy

Double jeopardy is an empirical law in marketing where, with few exceptions, the

lower market share brands in a market have lower brand loyalty.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marketing

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marketing

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brand_loyalty

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brand_loyalty


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Maybe growth is the key to loyalty

http://bit.ly/14jupMv

growth




...on Change25


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“Even power-users of Facebook with 1,000 or more friends still only communicate regularly with around

150 people, and of that 150 they strongly communicate with a group less than 20.”

Robin Dunbar, Anthropologist

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http://gawker.com/5855697/the-biological-reason-you-have-too-many-facebook-friends

Human’s don’t change that quickly.




In Summary29


You and your coworkers are not representative of the general population

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The 30 sec is far from dead

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Data and statistics aren’t as objective and scientific

as we like to think

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Old Habits Die Hard

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People don’t change that quickly

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The things that matter the most change slower than

we think

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@faris@ProfByron@AdContrarian@mweigel@davetrott

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Contrarians to follow

https://twitter.com/faris

https://twitter.com/faris

https://twitter.com/ProfByron

https://twitter.com/ProfByron

https://twitter.com/AdContrarian

https://twitter.com/AdContrarian

https://twitter.com/mweigel

https://twitter.com/mweigel

https://twitter.com/davetrott

https://twitter.com/davetrott

Thank you.

Contrarian Views on Advertising

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