Context and Challenges For Nuclear...
Transcript of Context and Challenges For Nuclear...
EnergyEnergy
EU ENERGY POLICY Context and ChallengesFor Nuclear Energy
MARC DEFFRENNES
DG ENER – UNIT D2
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EU energy challenges1. Sustainability (GHG, safety, waste,…)
2. Security of energy supply (ia stability and reliability of elect)
3. Competitiveness (Affordability)
To tackle these challenges, EU needs:• proper mix of a wide range of low carbon energy
sources + large investments• ambitious energy efficiency measures
NOTE: Nuclear provides today around 30% base-load electricity (contributing to reliability and stability of supply)
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Energy policy for Europe• Integrated energy and climate policy
Objective: 80 to 95 % GHG reduction in 2050
• Year 2020 targets (2007): 3x20% AND SET Plan – 80 Billion Euros over 10 y – incl Nuclear Fission
• 2nd Strategic Energy Review (2008)CO2 free electricity in 2050
• Energy Strategy 2020 (2010): 5 priorities (EE, Market Operation and Infrastructures, Innovation SET Plan, Safety and Security, International Cooperation)
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Energy Strategy 2020 and MFF: nuclear• Continuously improve safety and security
Safeguards and Decomm Funds: 700 MEuros for MFF
• Keep EU leadership in safe nuclear energyH2020 EC Proposal: Euratom IA 350M + DA 720M + FU 700M + ITER 2,7 B + Structural Funds + Euratom Loans ? H2020 EC Proposal: TEU Energy nearly 6B Euros (+ EERP and NER300 to be spent over same period) + other tools (structural funds, RSFF,…)
• Contribute to its responsible use worldwide by promoting legally binding standards (INSCDevco 600M)
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Energy Roadmap 2050
• Adopted by the Commission in December 2011; Council conclusions in May 2012
• An exploration of possible futuresfor the EU energy system: 7 scenarios
• Diverse Long-term perspectives for nuclear• Discussion with Member States and
stakeholders• A basis for policy action = regulatory
framework and financing/investment policy
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Basis of scenarios 80% domestic GHG reduction in 2050
Efficient pathway:-25% in 2020-40% in 2030-60% in 2040
Context: Low-Carbon Economy Roadmap (Mar 2011)
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Current policyPower Sector
Residential & Tertiary
Non CO2 Other Sectors
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Energy Roadmap 2050 - scenarios
1 Business as usual (Common Reference Scenario)
1bis Current Policy Initiatives scenario
2 High Energy Efficiency
3 Diversified supply technologies
4 High Renewables
5 Delayed CCS
6 Low Nuclear
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EU-27 resultsReference scenario: GDP, energy consumption and CO2 emissions 40 years back and ahead (1990 = 100)
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ResultsCurrent Policy initiatives scenario: Primary energy demand, savings from REF and carbon intensity
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Results Gross energy consumption: range in current trends and decarbonisation scenarios (in Mtoe)
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REF/CPI: effects of additional policies and updated assumptions
Decarbonisation cases: effects from different policy focus / technology availability
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ResultsShare of electricity in final energy demand under current trends and with decarbonisation (in %)
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Range for current trends scenarios:
Range regarding decarbonisation scenarios
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ResultsImport dependency under current trends and decarbonisation in (%)
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low Nuclear
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ResultsRatio of energy system costs* to GDP under current trends and decarbonisation (average over 2011-2050)
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Reference CPI EnergyEfficiency
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low Nuclear
* Without auction payments and estimates for disutility
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Decarbonisation of the energy system: Some conclusions• Decarbonisation under global climate action is feasible; several pathways are possible
and costs do not differ substantially from current trends
• Reduction of energy consumption through energy efficiency improvements
• All decarbonisation options can contribute: EE, RES, nuclear, CCS
• But Renewables increases in all cases: - at least 55% of gross final energy consumption- at least 60% of electricity generation
Electricity will play a greater role in energy supplies (20% of final energy demand today, almost 40% by 2050) also in areas such as transport and heating = 4800 TWh per year in 2050
• Power generation almost carbon free by 2050
• Electricity prices increase up to 2030 and slightly decline afterwards (besides the High RES scenario where electricity is 25% more expensive)
• Transition from high fuel / operational expenditure to high capital expenditure
• Reduced import dependency and external fuel bill
• Massive investments in generation capacity and grids to ensure stable and reliable energy supply
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Nuclear in Energy Roadmap 2050
• Reference scenario (pre-Fukushima) - shares of nuclear• 14.3% in 2030 and 16.7% in 2050 in primary energy (around 14% today)• 26.4 % in 2050 in power generation (around 28% today)
• Current Policy Initiatives scenario (post-Fukushima scenario) – change in assumptions
• 12.1% in 2030 and 13.5% in 2050 in primary energy• 20.5% in 2030 and 2050 in power generation
• Share of nuclear in decarbonisation scenarios vary depending on assumptions taken = from 2 to 18% in primary energy – 3 to 19 % in electricity (note: RES between 55% and 75% in final energy – which correspond to 60% to 90% in electricity) – of 4800 TWh
• A Low nuclear scenario and a Delayed CCS scenarios are showing the extreme results for nuclear (no high nuclear scenario was modelled)(EU 27 results mask important differences at MS level)
• Both scenarios with high nuclear share (Delayed CCS and Diversified supply technologies scenarios) show lowest costs; lower electricity prices so diversified supply can keep costs and prices downHigh renewables is 25% more expensive in price of electricity
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For info - EURELECTRIC Study 20502010 « PowerChoices » Scenario
Target: EU 75% GHG reduction in 2050 vs 1990 to respect IPPC 4th Assessment: 440 ppm CO2 eq and 2 deg C 50% GHG reduction worldwide and 60 to 80% OECD
Means carbon-free electricity in 2050 in EU = 2nd SER
Lot of energy efficiency and savings – primary energy needs decrease from 1800 Mtoe (2005) to 1400 Mtoe (2050)
Electricity demand increases from 3100 to 4800 TWh
Mainly RES – from 15% to 40 % – mainly wind 2x15 % by Coal and GasNuclear from 950 TWh to 1300 TWh (31 to 28%)
Overall cost of PowerChoices: Investment needed: 2 trillion Euros for 2050 (of 2005)…EC estimation Power Infrastructures 2020 1 trillion Euros= 600B plants + 400B grid – of which 200B priority interconnections (10B from MFF Infrastructures Interconnecting Europe
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Perspectives for nuclear in EU…
Further development is contingent on:• high level of nuclear safety & security - at large
(technology, waste mgnt, emerg mgnt, liability,…)• public acceptance + MS position on nuclear• climate targets maintained + how well are "others" doing• positive investment climate• research and innovation critical – leadership/knowledge• international cooperation and opportunities
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Working together at EU level
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A Nuclear Scenario from Now-2050…- EU Roadmap 2050 – up to 20% Nuclear Electricity- 4800 TWh per year – 140 Gwe (for 7000 hr per year) =
100 Units of 1400 MWe avg- Today 28% Nuclear Electricity = 125 Gwe – 135 Units- Closing DE+BE+UK AGRs = rest 100 Units – LTO- Average age of NPPS today in EU = 30 years- Vision: LTO between 2015 and 2035
New Built between 2025 and 2045 - Investment ? 900 Meuros per Unit for LTO to 60 y
5 Beuros for new Built (EPR) – 7 Years- Jobs ? Base 900 000 + 50 000 LTO + 250 000 New Built- Value added: 70 BEuros/y + 5 Beuros/y + 25 Beuros/y
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Stress tests: Commission mandate
15 March 2011: High Level Conference
24-25 March 2011: European Council:• comprehensive and transparent risk and safety
assessments
• similar stress tests should be carried out in the neighbouring countries and worldwide
• revision of the safety legal and regulatory framework
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Stress tests: features
They go beyond safety evaluations during the licensing process and periodic reviews
The aim: assess whether safety margins are sufficient to cover various unexpected events
Conducted on a voluntary basis in three-steps:• licensees (nuclear operators)
• independent national authorities (regulators)
• peer reviews
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Stress tests: state of play
• All assessments started before 1 June 2011• In August, operators carried out
self-assessments• In September, regulators compiled
national progress reports and submitted them to the Commission
• The Commission prepared an interim reportand presented it to the European Councilin December
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Stress tests: state of play
• By end December 2011, regulators prepared final national reports
• Reports provided by:all Member States operating NPPs + LithuaniaSwitzerland and Ukraine
• Peer reviews of final national reports are ongoing and will end in April 2012
• The Commission report will be presentedto the European Council in June 2012
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Peer reviews: features
They guarantee credibility and accountabilityPeer review teams:• experts from Member States and from
the European CommissionBoard supervising the process:• national regulators, non nuclear countries,
Commission; chaired by P. Jamet (ASN, FR)Deliverables:• Topical Summary Reports• Country Reports• Peer Review Summary Report
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Peer reviews: timetable
• Stakeholders Meeting Jan + May 2012
• Horizontal/topical reviews:January-February 2012
• Vertical/country reviews:March-April 2012
• ENSREG “wrap up” meeting:25 April 2012
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Stress tests: security aspects
Security threats are an important part ofstress tests
They are assessed in a separate process:• ad hoc Council working group to address this issue
• the Group reports attached to Commission reports
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Revision of the EU safety framework
Presentation results ST to Council June 2012
3rd quarter 2012: Commission legislative proposals
Main areas for legislative improvements:• technical safety requirements
• nuclear safety governance
• emergency preparedness and response