CONSUMERS ENERGY COMPANY’S gas customer ... - force.com

STATE OF MICHIGAN

BEFORE THE MICHIGAN PUBLIC SERVICE COMMISSION

* * * * *

In the matter, on the Commission’s own )motion, to consider revision of CONSUMERS )ENERGY COMPANY’S gas customer choice and ) Case No. U-17900end use transportation programs and tariffs. )___________________________________________ )

REBUTTAL TESTIMONY AND EXHIBITS

OF FRANK J. HOLLEWA ON BEHALF OF

THE RESIDENTIAL RATEPAYER CONSORTIUM

May 19, 2016

1 REBUTTAL TESTIMONY

2 FRANK J. HOLLEWA

3 CONSUMERS ENERGY COMPANY

4 MPSC CASE NO. U-17900

5

6 Q. PLEASE STATE YOUR NAME, OCCUPATION, AND ADDRESS.

7 A. My name is Frank J. Hollewa. I am an independent energy consultant doing business

8 as EPEC (Energy Planning and Engineering Consultants). My office is at 6182

9 Grovedale Court, Suite 100, Alexandria, Virginia 22310.

10 Q. ARE YOU THE SAME FRANK J. HOLLEWA WHO PREVIOUSLY

11 SUBMITTED DIRECT TESTIMONY IN THIS PROCEEDING?

12 A. Yes.

13 Q. WHAT IS THE PURPOSE OF YOUR REBUTTAL TESTIMONY?

14 A. The purpose of my testimony is to provide rebuttal regarding various portions of the

15 testimony of RESA’s witness Daniel Dishno and ABATE’s witness Nicholas Phillips,

16 Jr. I am presenting rebuttal to correct mistakes by these intervenors relating to my own

17 testimony as well as other representations by them that are not factual.

18 Q. WHAT IS YOUR OPINION REGARDING THE TESTIMONY OF BOTH

19 INTERVENORS?

20 A. I believe that they both missed the point of Case No. U-17900 which was initiated by

21 the MPSC to preclude the possibility of excess costs being borne by the GCR

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1 customers in the event of any similar future occurrence of weather. Instead of offering

2 any potential solutions, both intervenors recommend continuation of the status quo.

3 Testimony of Nicholas Phillips, Jr.

4 Q. ON PAGE 3, LINES 13-15, MR. PHILLIPS STATES THAT “RRC WITNESS

5 HOLLEWA INDICATES THAT DAILY BALANCING IS OVERLY

6 EXPENSIVE, BUT THAT EUT CUSTOMERS BE FORCED TO DELIVER

7 EXCESS AMOUNTS OF GAS WITHOUT ANY CORRESPONDING

8 PAYMENT OR RATE REDUCTION”. WHAT IS YOUR RESPONSE?

9 A. Mr. Phillips was correct regarding daily balancing, but was entirely incorrect in his

10 interpretation of my testimony regarding forced delivery of excess amounts of gas. I

11 have included the Company’s response to discovery question 17900-AG-CE-23

12 (partial - a and b) as Exhibit RRC-4 (FJH-4). This exhibit provides the EUT

13 nominations for January through March 2014 and was utilized to develop the following

14 table with comparison to the RRC’s DDO and the Company’s Peak Day Plan:

15 Highest Lowest Average Proposed DDO CECO Plan1617 January 454,136 287,306 339,585 272,000 130,00018 February 453,369 285,147 343,796 284,000 180,00019 March 374,454 237,441 306,092 236,000 180,000

20 The RRC’s proposed DDO applicable to only the months of January through March is

21 significantly lower than the actual daily average that occurred in 2014 and is less than

22 the lowest nomination that occurred for each month. The claim that EUT customers

23 would be forced to deliver excess amounts of gas is not supported by any factual data

24 or evidence and should be disregarded.

-2-

1 Q. IS THERE ANY LIKELIHOOD THAT THE PROPOSED DDO WOULD

2 RESULT IN DELIVERY OF EXCESS AMOUNTS OF GAS DURING

3 NORMAL OR WARMER-THAN-NORMAL (WTN) WEATHER?

4 A. Nothing pertaining to weather in future years can be stated in absolute certainty.

5 However, I have included the Company’s response to discovery question

6 17900-RRC-CE-24 (partial - b, c, and d) as Exhibit RRC-5 (FJH-5). Bates No.

7 90000012 for the 2013-2014 winter and Bates No. 90000013 for the 2014-2015 winter

8 were utilized to develop the following table with comparisons to the RRC’s DDO

9 delivery requirement:

10 2013-2014 GCR Year 2014-2015 GCR Year 11 January February March January February March1213 Normal Weather 9,160 8,784 7,808 9,361 8,847 8,11714 90% DDO 8,244 7,906 7,027 8,425 7,962 7,30515 DDO Difference 916 878 781 936 885 81216 EUT Use/DD 4.08 4.08 4.08 3.88 3.88 3.8817 Equivalent DD 225 215 191 241 228 20918 Normal DD 1229 1041 851 1229 1041 85119 Percent WTN 18.3 20.7 22.4 19.6 21.9 24.6

20 Any weather that might be even warmer would certainly result in a Company

21 notification to EUT customers cancelling the DDO requirement. EUT customers

22 would obviously have to increase deliveries above the DDO for Normal and any type

23 of CTN weather at their own discretion and timing. For example, the EUT customers

24 could under-deliver like what actually occurred during the first 10 days of March 2014

25 when gas prices were at record levels and then over-deliver for the balance of the

26 month when prices were much more economical.

-3-

1 Q. PLEASE EXPLAIN WHY THE RRC RECOMMENDED A DDO AND WHY IT

2 WAS LOWER THAN WHAT ACTUALLY OCCURRED IN 2014.

3 A. The RRC recommended a DDO based on the following:

4 1. The Company’s statement that “Historically, actual End User Transport winter

5 supply has been highly variable and unpredictable. It has also been both higher

6 and lower than the peak day assumptions used in Exhibit A-20 (DWH-11)”.

7 2. The Company’s statement that “The relatively low End User Transport supply

8 assumption was used because End User Transport customers do not have

9 minimum daily supply requirements.”

10 3. Exhibit A-20 in Case No. U-17334 shows a Design Day load requirement of 442

11 MMcf on 1/31/15 for the end user transport customer group and the supply

12 assumption of 130 MMcf.

13 With the establishment of a modest DDO for January through March, the Company

14 would be able to reduce the level of incremental purchases necessary to protect against

15 Design Days (see Hollewa direct testimony on page 19, lines 9-20). In order to achieve

16 this potential savings for GCR customers, the EUT customers would only have to

17 provide 90% of the average day supply and would retain the same benefits and savings

18 such as occurred in March 2014.

19 Q. PLEASE EXPLAIN THE SAME BENEFITS AND SAVINGS SUCH AS

20 OCCURRED IN MARCH 2014.

21 A. EUT customers delivered an average of 250,893 Dth/D for the first 10 days of March

22 when the average Consumers Citygate Index price was $21.75. The average daily

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1 delivery for the next 21 days in March was 332,378 Dth/D at an average Consumers

2 Citygate price of $6.00. The average daily gas usage by EUT customers was much

3 higher for the first 10 days than the average of the next 21 days.

4 The RRC’s proposed DDO of 236,000 Dth/D for March would have permitted the

5 EUT customers the same access to storage and the same opportunity to create savings.

6 The testimony of Mr. Phillips on page 8, lines 1-9 is accurate as it pertains to daily

7 balances, but claiming that the same condition occurs with the RRC proposal is

8 misguided and completely false.

9 Testimony of Daniel Dishno

10 Q. MR. DISHNO STATES THAT “GCC SUPPLIERS HAVE OFTEN

11 BENEFITTED GCR CUSTOMERS AT TIMES WHEN GCC SUPPLIERS

12 OVER-DELIVER GAS SUPPLY IN RELATION TO GCC CUSTOMER LOAD

13 PURSUANT TO CONSUMERS’ DDOs”. WHAT IS YOUR RESPONSE?

14 A. Mr.Dishno follows this quote with a number of representations without any factual data

15 from the bottom of page 5 through the top of page 8 of his testimony. I will address

16 each of these representations in the order that they occur.

17 1. Page 5, lines 19-22. The first point is that Consumers’ operational planning

18 includes over-deliveries to accommodate colder-than-normal (CTN) weather.

19 Second, both GCR and GCC customers must also be responsible for any necessary

20 purchases to protect against a Design March and a Design Day at the end of the

21 month. Third, the operating plan shows a positive storage balance for both GCR

22 and GCC which would only be reduced after a Design March occurrence. In my

-5-

1 opinion, Consumers would have made a mistake in any year (absent another Polar

2 Vortex winter) and in any weather if GCC customers did not over-deliver on an

3 annual basis.

4 2. Page 6, lines 1-6. I have included the Company’s response to discovery question

5 17900-RRC-CE-25 as Exhibit RRC-6 (FJH-6). I expected the response to be only

6 2/4/14 because of my involvement with all Consumers Energy Company GCR

7 cases since 1999. I did not participate in the 2014-2015 GCR Reconciliation Case,

8 but it would be reasonable to assume that the 5 other purchases over 8 days in

9 February 2015 had no significant volumes. Therefore, the reduction in the level of

10 spot purchases is not only wrong, but demonstrates a lack of knowledge regarding

11 how Consumers manages purchases and storage.

12 3. Page 6, lines 5 and 6. Mr. Dishno references a true price-impact analysis, but fails

13 to present any factual data. I developed the following based on the NYMEX Close

14 Prices for the winter period (November-March) versus the summer period (April-

15 October). Negative values reflect the average reduced winter prices when

16 compared to summer prices.

17 2010-2011 -$0.20/Dth18 2011-2012 -$1.16/Dth19 2012-2013 +$0.85/Dth*20 2013-2014 +$0.64/Dth21 2014-2015 -$0.91/Dth22 2015-2016 -$0.75/Dth23 24 * Followed the record warm 2011-20112 winter period when summer prices25 for 2012-2013 resulted in a NYMEX Close Price average of $2.5853.

-6-

1 I do not believe that there is any way to “spin” a scenario where over-deliveries at

2 less expensive prices constitute a benefit for GCR customers.

3 4. Mr. Dishno provides a hypothetical example which would result in a net benefit

4 for GCR customers due to AGS under-deliveries. To my knowledge, this

5 hypothetical has not occurred to date and it is very likely that an actual occurrence

6 would have been used if such an event had actually happened. However, I

7 documented the excess cost for GCR customers in Case No. U-17133-R which

8 was not challenged by any of the parties, including Consumers. This factual data

9 is as follows:

10 o The GCC reconciliation showed a negative GCC purchase of 3,606,678 Mcf

11 for $20,239,470 ($5.61/Mcf).

12 o The avoided GCR purchases for February would have been 1.0 Bcf at $8.27.

13 $8.27 - $5.61 x 1.0 Bcf = $2,660,000.

14 o The avoided GCR purchases for March would have been 0.6 Bcf at $11.14.

15 $11.14 - $5.61 x 0.6 Bcf = $3,318,000.

16 o The total net increased cost to GCR customers was $5,978,000.

17 o The remaining 2.0 Bcf of under-deliveries occurred in January, but could not

18 have been foreseen by Consumers at the end of December.

19 Q. MR. DISHNO COVERS THE RRC’S PROPOSAL FOR A 90% DDO ON

20 PAGE 17, LINE 3 THROUGH LINE 18. WHAT IS YOUR RESPONSE?

21 A. The RRC proposal “avoids” infringing on the totality of the EUT program. The

22 previous rebuttal to Mr. Phillips demonstrates that there would be no restrictions to the

-7-

1 use of the ATL and that 90% translates to a delivery volume which would

2 accommodate 18.5%-24.6% warmer-than-normal (WTN) weather. The range between

3 20% WTN and 20% CTN is more than adequate to utilize 100% of any EUT ATL.

4 Q. DO YOU HAVE ANY FINAL COMMENT ON MR. DISHNO’S TESTIMONY?

5 A. Yes. His statement on page 4, line 17 that I recommend modifications of DDOs

6 mid-month is absolutely false.

7 Q. DOES THIS CONCLUDE YOUR REBUTTAL TESTIMONY?

8 A. Yes, it does.

-8-

17900-AG-CE-23 (partial- a. and b.)

Question:

23. Please provide the following information in Excel:

a. The actual total gas supply delivered by EUT customers for each day from January 1, 2014 to March 31, 2014. Identify how much of this gas supply was for MCV.

b. The total gas supply nominations by EUT customers for each day from January 1, 2014 to March 31, 2014. Identify how much of this gas supply wasforMCV.

c. The actual Heating Degree Days for each day from November l, 2013 to March 31, 2014. If the Company calculates weighted HDD based on customers consumption in different weather stations/regions, please provide this information as well.

d. The Heating Degree Days for each day from November 1, 2013 to March 31, 2014 used in arriving at the Transport volumes under Normal Weather and also under Design Nov/Mar Early Season in Exhibit A-21 in case No. U-17133.

e. For the Transportation volumes listed under Normal Weather, Design Nov/Mar Early Season and Normal Nov Design Dec/Mar in Exhibit A-21 in case No. U-17133, identify how much of the gas supply for each month was for MCV.

f. The actual storage withdrawals, injections and storage balances for all EUT customers in MMcffor each day from January 1, 2014 to March 31, 2014. If this information is not available for only EUT customers, please provide it in total for on-system customers (i.e., EUT, GCR and GCC customers) and excluding off-system customers. Identify how much of this storage information was for MCV.

17900-AG-CE-23 (partial)Page 1 of 2

90000050

Exhibit RRC-4 (FJH-4) MPSC Case No. U-17900 Page 1 of 4

17900-AG-CE-23 (partial - a. and b. Contd.)

Response:

a. Please see the provided attachment for the January 1, 2014 to March 31, 2014 EUT nominations. Those nominations represent scheduled supply into Consumers's system for each day. None of the listed nominations include gas supply for MCV, as MCV is not an EUT customer.

b. Please see the provided attachment for the January 1, 2014 to March 31, 2014 EUT nominations. None of the listed nominations include MCV volumes, as MCV is not an EUT customer.

Gas Management Services Department

17900-AG-CE-23 (partial)Page 2 of 2

90000051


a. & b. c.

1/1/2014 289,424 11/1/2013 12.46

1/2/2014 287,306 11/2/2013 23.50

1/3/2014 299,382 11/3/2013 25.80

1/4/2014 317,807 11/4/2013 23.36

1/5/2014 316,470 11/5/2013 16.72

1/6/2014 304,225 11/6/2013 15.30

1/7/2014 307,396 11/7/2013 25.14

1/8/2014 313,106 11/8/2013 26.82

1/9/2014 338,446 11/9/2013 17.98

1/10/2014 338,992 11/10/2013 23.32

1/11/2014 349,135 11/11/2013 29.80

1/12/2014 351,080 11/12/2013 36.30

1/13/2014 349,633 11/13/2013 35.34

1/14/2014 346,240 11/14/2013 25.34

1/15/2014 327,515 11/15/2013 21.54

1/16/2014 328,299 11/16/2013 19.52

1/17/2014 350,593 11/17/2013 9.96

1/18/2014 364,585 11/18/2013 24.30

1/19/2014 365,283 11/19/2013 29.48

1/20/2014 362,139 11/20/2013 28.32

1/21/2014 360,747 11/21/2013 21.84

1/22/2014 341,534 11/22/2013 28.96

1/23/2014 349,526 11/23/2013 41.80

1/24/2014 351,765 11/24/2013 45.32

1/25/2014 348,950 11/25/2013 39.84

1/26/2014 345,368 11/26/2013 33.28

1/27/2014 342,227 11/27/2013 41.14

1/28/2014 291,148 11/28/2013 41.98

1/29/2014 350,844 11/29/2013 39.02

1/30/2014 383,846 11/30/2013 29.34

1/31/2014 454,136 12/1/2013 28.82

2/1/2014 309,300 12/2/2013 31.48

2/2/2014 309,300 12/3/2013 32.14

2/3/2014 309,300 12/4/2013 18.36

2/4/2014 317,464 12/5/2013 20.482/5/2014 300,109 12/6/2013 39.80

2/6/2014 285,147 12/7/2013 45.28

2/7/2014 307,452 12/8/2013 44.26

2/8/2014 325,786 12/9/2013 40.80

2/9/2014 327,469 12/10/2013 48.64

2/10/2014 324,971 12/11/2013 50.28

END USER NOMINATIONS FOR

JANUARY THROUGH MARCH 2014

Gas Day

TOTAL NOMINATIONS

(MMBTU)

2013‐2014 Actual HDD

(68% Det, 32% Lan)

Date HDD

90000054


2/11/2014 306,458 12/12/2013 53.16

2/12/2014 315,742 12/13/2013 41.66

2/13/2014 338,393 12/14/2013 45.62

2/14/2014 340,234 12/15/2013 46.12

2/15/2014 353,879 12/16/2013 53.28

2/16/2014 355,944 12/17/2013 44.02

2/17/2014 354,676 12/18/2013 39.18

2/18/2014 356,952 12/19/2013 32.18

2/19/2014 383,588 12/20/2013 29.42

2/20/2014 453,369 12/21/2013 32.30

2/21/2014 407,519 12/22/2013 30.76

2/22/2014 372,925 12/23/2013 38.24

2/23/2014 377,322 12/24/2013 48.78

2/24/2014 375,965 12/25/2013 47.32

2/25/2014 378,017 12/26/2013 39.46

2/26/2014 368,630 12/27/2013 32.50

2/27/2014 355,887 12/28/2013 26.64

2/28/2014 314,503 12/29/2013 32.94

3/1/2014 256,400 12/30/2013 47.14

3/2/2014 240,991 12/31/2013 47.28

3/3/2014 237,441 1/1/2014 51.80

3/4/2014 250,397 1/2/2014 56.94

3/5/2014 241,985 1/3/2014 62.30

3/6/2014 237,922 1/4/2014 44.02

3/7/2014 270,997 1/5/2014 40.12

3/8/2014 257,476 1/6/2014 62.32

3/9/2014 257,476 1/7/2014 71.86

3/10/2014 257,844 1/8/2014 59.38

3/11/2014 362,823 1/9/2014 55.20

3/12/2014 322,749 1/10/2014 35.00

3/13/2014 321,825 1/11/2014 27.48

3/14/2014 374,454 1/12/2014 30.00

3/15/2014 321,978 1/13/2014 25.66

3/16/2014 321,854 1/14/2014 33.16

3/17/2014 323,187 1/15/2014 40.12

3/18/2014 306,750 1/16/2014 41.64

3/19/2014 325,525 1/17/2014 40.80

3/20/2014 351,337 1/18/2014 51.06

3/21/2014 345,342 1/19/2014 43.98

3/22/2014 321,332 1/20/2014 43.80

3/23/2014 320,545 1/21/2014 59.94

3/24/2014 319,470 1/22/2014 62.02

3/25/2014 282,206 1/23/2014 57.46

3/26/2014 306,524 1/24/2014 57.02

3/27/2014 335,254 1/25/2014 48.96

3/28/2014 356,348 1/26/2014 50.48

3/29/2014 349,390 1/27/2014 55.74

3/30/2014 350,011 1/28/2014 66.52

3/31/2014 361,026 1/29/2014 58.02

90000055


17900-RRC-CE-24 (partial- b, c, & d)

Question:

RRC-1 Please provide the following relating to the ATLs for EUT customers during the 10-year GCR periods from 2005-2006 through 2014-2015:

Response:

RRC-1

a. Total combined ATLas ofNovember 1st for each year.

b. Amount of ATL utilized for each month from November thorugh March.

c. Remaining ATL balance as of the end of each month for November through March.

d. Plan Forecast of EUT sendout by month for November through March.

b. Please see the Excel file provided with this response for the requested monthly actual EUT storage injections and withdrawals.

c. Please see the Excel file provided with this response for the requested end of month actual EUT storage inventory balance.

d. Please see the attached PDF which contains the appropriate Company GCR Plan Case exhibit from Case No.'s U-15704, U-16149, U-16485, U-16924, U-17133, & U-17334 for GCRperiods 2009-2010 to 2014-2015 and the equivalent workpaper for GCR periods 2005-2006 to 2008-2009.

Gas Management Services Department

90000002

(NOTE: Attached are numbered documents 90000003 through 90000013.)


b.

Month 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15November -831 592 811 -302 -883 595 -144 271 5 -101December 1092 -699 971 967 775 359 -370 -351 781 -92

January -1405 1787 1943 605 1251 537 36 646 838 300February 880 2493 1749 -638 377 56 -38 259 308 1060

March 189 -81 102 -74 535 512 -602 178 -369 371

c.

Month 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15November 6569 7414 7662 5455 6841 4320 3869 3612 3735 5039December 5477 8113 6691 4488 6066 3961 4239 3963 2954 5131

January 6882 6326 4748 3883 4816 3424 4203 3317 2116 4831February 6002 3833 2999 4521 4438 3368 4241 3059 1808 3771

March 5813 3914 2897 4595 3903 2856 4843 2880 2177 3400

GCR Period

GCR Period

End User Transport Monthly Actual Injections & Withdrawals (-Inj./+Wd.)(Volumes listed are in MMcf @ 14.65 Dry Pressure Base)

End User Transport Monthly Actual Storage Balance(Volumes listed are in MMcf @ 14.65 Dry Pressure Base)

90000003


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90000013


17900-RRC-CE-25

QUESTION:

2. Please provide the number oftimes during the past 10 years when the Company made intra-month spot purchases during the November-March period.

RESPONSE:

The Company has this information for the past 7 years. During that time, the Company made intra-month spot purchases during the November-March period six times on the following dates: 02/04/14,02117/15,02/18/15,02/20/15,02/24/15, and 02/25115.

Gas Management Services

c:;....._- vid W Howard March 2016

90000014


CONSUMERS ENERGY COMPANY’S gas customer ... - force.com

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