TECHEMERGENCE CONSENSUS:CONSCIOUS MACHINES

Time Scale Esitmates from 33 AI Researchers

The data from this consensus was collected between October and December of 2015

In this TechEmergence Consensus, we contacted a total of 33 artificial intelligence researchers (all except one hold a PhD) and asked them about the possibility of machines obtaining human-like conscious awareness.

This slide deck displays the major trends of responses as well as some of the most poignant quotes from the recognized experts we spoke with.

Access to the complete data set and all quotes and answers from all the researchers that we connected with for our AI Conciousness Consensus as well as our 20 year and 100 year AI Risk Consensus is available for free down-load as a spreadsheet or Google Sheet in the link below:

>> CLICK HERE

0 2 4 6 8 10

© TechEmergence Consensus October-December 2015

In what timeframe would you give suspect with 90% certainty that “conscious” machines might be developed?

24.24%

18.18%

15.15%

12.12%

12.12%

6.06%

6.06%

2036 – 2060

[No Timeframe Given]

2021 - 2035

2061 - 2100

Before 2021

2101 - 2200

Before 3000

NO. OF RESPONSES

RESP

ON

SE T

YPE

& O

VERA

LL P

ERCE

NTA

GE

3.03% Likely Never

We’ve selected one or two quotes from each of the major response categories. Beneath each quote is a link (if available) of our complete interview with this guest on the TechEmergence Podcast.* These consensus answers were recorded seperately from our podcasts interviews, but most podcasts are focused on related topics around the ethical implications of emerging technologies.

2036 - 2060

I think that as brain-computer interfacing, neuroscience and AGI develop, we will gradually gain a better understanding of consciousness — but this may require an expansion of the scientific methodology itself. I wrote a blog post titled “Second Person Science” considering this issue.

- Dr. Ben Goertzel PhD in Mathematics | Chief Scientist of Hanson Robotics

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Listen to or read our full interview with Dr. Ben Goertzel at techemergence.com:

2036 - 2060

I think that the issue of machine consciousness (and consciousness in general) can be resolved empirically, but that it has not been to date. That said, I see no scientific reason why artificial systems could not be conscious, if sufficiently complex and appropriately organized.

- Dr. Bruce Maclennan PhD in Computer Science, Purdue | Associate Professor Dept. of Electrical Engineering & Computer Science University of Tennessee

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Listen to or read our full interview with Dr. Bruce Maclennanat techemergence.com:

NO TIMEFRAME GIVEN

Consciousness is not a scientific concept; it can’t be detected or tested for in any way. It also doesn’t do anything so no reason exists to invest in research developing artificial consciousness.

- Dr. Roman Yampolskiy PhD Computer Science, University of Buffalo | Associate Professor Computer Scientist at Speed School of Engineering, the University of Louisville

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Listen to or read our full interview with Dr. Roman Yampolskiy techemergence.com:

NO TIMEFRAME GIVEN

Human consciousness has many aspects ranging from having a self model, to having subjective experiences or “qualia”, to having a sense of being a unitary being with continuity through time. We don’t yet understand the nature of these in us, so I think it’s too early to predict whether machines will have them.

- Dr. Steve Omohundro PhD in Mathematical Physics | Author, Scientist, Physicist, Entrepreneur

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Listen to our full interview with Dr. Steve Omohundro at techemergence.com:

2021 - 2035

Machines will be able to have something similar to what we call consciousness in the next 10-20 years, but we will not need that to achieve machines with narrow (task-specific) super-human capa-bilities. This is achieved already today and this is the real use of AI for our society.

- Dr. Massimiliano Versace PhD in Cognitive and Neural Systems, Boston University | Co-founder and CEO of Neurala Inc

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Read or listen to our full interview with Dr. Massimilliano Versace at techemergence.com:

2061 - 2100

We already have conscious machines. Their degree of consciousness will evolve and become greater and greater as we progress in the technology and knowledge that we put into them. For example, autonomous cars will be very self conscious.

- Dr. Eyal Amir Chief Executive Officer and Chief Data Scientist at Parknav Technologies

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Read or listen to our full interview with Dr. Eyal Amir at techemergence.com:

BEFORE 2021

Both consciousness and sentience have already been implemented within machines beginning with the reductions to practice behind US Patent 5,659,666, “Device for the Autonomous Generation of Useful Information.”

- Dr. Stephen Thaler PhD Physics, University of Missouri-Columbia | Founder and Board Chairman at Imagitron, LLC

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Listen to or read our full interview with Dr. Stephen Thaler at techemergence.com:

2101 - 2200

Machines can be conscious, because we humans are conscious, and we ARE machines. Complex squishy machines, but machines nonetheless.

- Dr. Robin D Hanson PhD in Social Sciences, CalTech | Associate Professor of Economics at George Mason University Chief Scientist at Consensus Point

BEFORE 3000

Yes, it’s possible. Humans are made from stuff that obeys the laws of physics - they constitute an existance proof. The difficulty is just that of working out how the machine (taken in a very wide sense) works and how to build an equivalent.

- Dr. Sean Holden PhD in Engineering, Corpus Christi | Senior Lecturer in Machine Learning at Cambridge University

LIKELY NEVER

Are dogs conscious? It seems so, but we really don’t know what that question means. We assume conscious awareness in people, but not in machines. We are “fleshists.” There is no way to build something when we don’t really know what it is.

- Dr. Roger Schank Professor Emeritus at Northwestern University | Founder of Socratic Arts and XTOL

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Listen to our full interview with Dr. Roger Schank at techemergence.com:

If you’ve enjoyed this presentation and you’d like to see the full set of 33 AI researcher responses from our AI Conciousness Consensus as well as our 20 year and 100 year AI Risk Consensus, the entire dataset is made freely availble in a simple spreadsheet accessible via the form below:

>> CLICK HERE

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