Confronting Climate Change

in the Great Lakes Region

Impacts and Solutions for Great Lakes

Communities and Ecosystems

http://www.ucsusa.org/greatlakes

Reports for California, Gulf Coast States, Great Lakes, Northeast U.S.

Available for download at: http://www.climatechoices.org http://www.ucsusa.org

Take Home Messages:

1. Climate change is real, and is changing the character of the Great Lakes region 2. Climate change magnifies existing

environmental problems

3. Science-based, common-sense solutions are available now

1. Evidence of Climate Change in the Great Lakes

Region• Temperatures are rising, especially in

winter• Extreme rainfall events are becoming

more frequent

• Winters are shorter

• Spring comes earlier

• Shorter duration of ice cover especially on small and large lakes

Plant Hardiness Zones have moved

1990 vs 2006

Extreme rainfall events (24-hr and 7-day) are becoming more frequent

Lake Mendota, Wisconsin

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000

142 Years (1856 - 1998) 1Year

Ice C

over

(Days)

Magnuson April 2001From John Magnuson

Common (but

unusual) events on

Lakes Mendota and

Monona

Winter of 2001-2002

Lake Mendota, Wisconsin

Ice C

over

(Days)

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000

142 Years (1856 - 1998) 10Years

J. Magnuson

Ice C

over

(Days)

Lake Mendota, Wisconsin

Lake Mendota, Wisconsin

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000

142 Years (1856 - 1998)

Dynamics from El Niño Years

50 Years (1949 -1998)

J. Magnuson

Trend caused by Global ChangeIc

e C

over

(Days)

Corresponds to ~1°C in Air Temperature per 100 Years

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000

142 Years (1856 - 1998)

Corresponds to ~1°C in Air Temperature per 100 Years

J. Magnuson

Lakes and Rivers are Freezing

Later, and Thawing Earlier

(37 of the 39 time series are in the direction

of warming)

Modified from J. Magnuson et al. 2000for IPCC 2001

1840 1880 1920 1960 2000

Freeze

Breakup

MacKenzie Rivern NW Terr.

Kallavesi, Finland

Lake Mendota, WI

Lake Mendota, WI

Grand Traverse Bay, Lake Michigan

Baikal, Russia

Grand Traverse Bay, Lake Michigan

Kallavesi, Finland

Baikal, Russia

1 Nov

1 Dec

1 Jan

1 Feb

1 Mar

1 Apr

1 May

1 Jun

• Temperature– Winter 5-12 °F (3-7 °C)– Summer 5-20 °F (3-11 °C)– Extreme heat more common

• Precipitation– Winter, spring increasing– Summer, fall decreasing – drier soils, more droughts

• More extreme events – storms, floods

• Ice cover decline will continue

• Boreal Forests likely to disappear in G.L. region

Projected Climate Changes in the Great Lakes Region by

2100

Climate Warming will Climate Warming will Impact the Future Impact the Future Weather we “Feel”Weather we “Feel”

summers

The Changing Character of Lakes, Streams, & Fish

• Cold-water fish will decline, warm-water species move

north

• Summer “dead zones” and fish kills will increase

• Greater susceptibility to invasive species

• Water levels likely to decline

Gerald C. Bucher

“Dead Zones” &

Fish Kills will increase

Great Lakes Regional Production ~$2 Trillion

Values in millions of $

What is at risk?

(Tourism, recreation)

2. Climate Change Impacts Will Not Occur in a

Vacuum• Population is growing• Increased urbanization & sprawl• Landscape fragmentation

• Air and Water pollution

• Social challenges • Geographic limits

Michigan Land Michigan Land Use, 1980Use, 1980

Built

Agriculture

Other vegetation

Forest

Lake

Wetland

2001 Michigan Land Resource Project

Michigan Land Michigan Land Use Projections, Use Projections,

20402040

Built

Agriculture

Other vegetation

Forest

Lake

Wetland

2001 Michigan Land Resource

Project

Exacerbation of Existing Problems Water Resources

• Small streams & wetlands likely to dry up – loss of biodiversity

• Pressure to increase water extraction from the Great Lakes

• Lake levels expected to decline

• Pollution from PCBs and heavy metals will increase as more dredging is required

Exacerbation of Existing Problems Human Health

• Cold-related health problems will decline while heat- related morbidity and mortality will increase

• Extreme heat more likely:– 40+ days by 2100 >90°F (32 °C)– 25+ days by 2100 >97°F (36 °C)

• Higher ground-level ozone concentrations

• Waterborne and other infectious diseases may become more frequent and

widespread

Meeting the Climate

Challenge

• Avoiding the

unmanageable

• Managing the

unavoidable

3. Worst Impacts Are Not Inevitable

No-regrets solutions available now

Three-pronged approach to deal with climate change:

1. Reducing our emissions

2. Minimizing pressure on the environment

3. Planning and preparing to manage the impacts of a changing climate

Renewable Portfolio Standards

ME: 30% by 2000

HI : 20% by 2020

I A: 105 MW

AZ: 15% by 2025

CO: 10% by 2015

NM: 10% by 2011

TX: 5,880 MW by 2015

CA: 33% by 2020

NV: 20% by 2015

MT: 15% by 2015

MN: Xcel 1250 MW by 2013

WI : 10% by 2015

NY: 25% by 2013

MA: 4% New by 2009

DC: 11% by 2022

NJ : 20% by 2020CT: 10% by 2010

MD: 7.5% by 2019

RI : 16% by 2020

PA: 18% by 2020

Renewable Portfolio Standards

ME: 30% by 2000

HI : 20% by 2020

I A: 105 MW

AZ: 15% by 2025

CO: 10% by 2015

NM: 10% by 2011

TX: 5,880 MW by 2015

CA: 33% by 2020

NV: 20% by 2015

MT: 15% by 2015

MN: Xcel 1250 MW by 2013

WI : 10% by 2015

NY: 25% by 2013

MA: 4% New by 2009

DC: 11% by 2022

NJ : 20% by 2020CT: 10% by 2010

MD: 7.5% by 2019

RI : 16% by 2020

PA: 18% by 2020

VT: equal to load growth 2005 - 2012

ME: 30% by 2000

HI : 20% by 2020

I A: 105 MW

AZ: 15% by 2025

CO: 10% by 2015

NM: 10% by 2011

NV: 20% by 2015

MT: 15% by 2015

WI : 10% by 2015

NY: 25% by 2013

MA: 4% New by 2009

DC: 11% by 2022

NJ : 20% by 2020CT: 10% by 2010

PA: 18% by 2020

VT: equal to load growth 2005 - 2012

I L: 8% by 2013 †

DE: 10% by 2019

† I L implements its RPS through voluntary utility commitments Barry Rabe; PEW Center

Azar, C. and S.H. Schneider. 2002. Ecological Economics 42: 73–80.

Global GDP

The projected costs of stabilizing atmospheric CO2 levels are low in terms of Global Gross Domestic Product

- Business as usual

75-90% reduction in GHG by 2100 costs 1-4% GDP; GDP grows by 2-3%/yr; environmental benefits not included

We delay the time we become 10 times richer

from 2100 to 2102

Personal Solutions

• Be carbon conscious

• Look for the Energy Star label

• Choose clean power

• Unplug underused appliances

• Get a home energy audit

• Light bulbs matter

• Take the stairs

• Buy good wood

• Let policy makers know you are concerned about global warming

Summary• Climate change must be considered in

preserving the character of any localityor region.

• “Saving” the Great Lakes or the northern forests or the rainforest requires both policy and management initiatives.

• Science tells us that the longer we wait, the larger the negative impacts will be. Common sense solutions are available now.

Take home point:

“Nothing happens in a vacuum…”