Conferencia LA Dr. David L. Bodde
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Transcript of Conferencia LA Dr. David L. Bodde
Entrepreneurship for Urban Mobility
It’s Not Just About the CarDr. David L. Bodde
14 October, 2014
An Agenda for Today
• Part II: Technology and opportunity
• Part III: Information technology: driver of opportunity
• Part IV: Entrepreneurial Leadership for System-Level innovation
• Part I: Urban mobility challenge
– Growing population in urban centers
– Sustainability pressures
– Globalization
The Urban Mobility Challenge
• Population: the decisive influence
Urban Mobility Challenge: Population
• Beyond headcount, some subtleties…
– Birthrates dropping
• First in developed countries
• Now everywhere…level at 10 billion?
Urban Mobility Challenge: PopulationTrends Toward Urban Living
Aggregate Numbers Do Not Tell the Whole Story:Consider Huntington’s “Tectonic” Plates
Samuel P. Huntington: The Clash of Civilizations
KEY-AC.7
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America +
Western
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Orthodox
Europe
Latin
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Sinic Hindu Islamic Non-Islamic
Africa
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Human Development Index
Electric Use
(kWh/yr/Capita)
Tectonic Plate Comparisons
2050 Population/
% Urban
420/
77%
221/
78%750/
75%
1,675/
28%
2,348/
44%1,013/
31%
Net Migration in (M/yr)
1.27 0.76 0.03 0.51 0.48 0.08 0.77 0.22
Net Migration out (M/yr)
U.N. Human
Development
Index
Electricity
Utilization
Per Capita
Fertility Rate
(# of children/woman)
474/
78%
1,997/
36%
Urban Mobility Challenge: Sustainability of the City
• What is it not?– Not lock-in of the present– Not strictly environmental concept
• Eat less red meat• Turn the lights off when leaving the room
• Concepts not big enough to provide for future generations
“It doesn’t get any better than this.”
Urban Mobility Challenge: Sustainability of the City
• So…what is sustainability?
– Meeting the needs of those living today while improving the ability of future generations to meet their needs.
– Justice: a theistic concept
– Fairness: a political concept
– Environmental services: a survival concept
– Economic surplus creation: business/technology concept
Urban Mobility Challenge: Sustainability of the City
• Congestion costs rising
• Study of 498 cities in U.S. in 2011:– 5.5 billion hours wasted time
– 2.9 billion gal. wasted fuel
– Measured cost: $ 121 billion
– Pollutants from idling engines: 56 x 109 lbs. CO2
• Costs in U.S. up 5x since 1982
• Worse elsewhere: Bangkok, Beijing
• Answer is not in the car alone – in the mobility system.
Urban Mobility Challenge:Pressure on Global Environment
The 15 km Shell of Life – 12,750 km diameter
Urban Mobility Challenge:Varies With Global Context
• Developed world:– Aging transportation infrastructure– Constrained public resources for infrastructure
renovation– Limited possibilities to redesign urban centers
• Developing world:– Lack of suitable transportation infrastructure– Consumers do not adopt low emission transportation
modes • Higher cost• Lack of enforcement of government regulations
– Urbanization not informed by long term strategic development
• Driven by speculation
Urban Mobility Challenge:Vehicle Demand Now Global
Source: Smyth GM, 2014
Now…on to technology and opportunity
An Agenda for Today
• Part I: Urban mobility challenge
• Part III: Information Technology driving opportunity
• Part IV. Entrepreneurial Leadership for System-Level innovation
Technology Driven Opportunity
• An era of global technology possibilities
1. Autonomous road vehicles
2. Electric and/or fuel cell road vehicles
3. Fueling infrastructure for the above
4. Internet of things
5. Distributed electric generation: fuel cell, wind, solar
• Each a significant innovation by itself
• Each capital intensive
• Each backed by large, entrepreneurial, and powerful companies
Opportunities Considered Separately1. Autonomous Road Vehicles
• Google - the car company?!?– May 2014 announcement
– Google would build and operate small fleet of autonomous vehicles
• No steering wheel, no controls
• Customer calls the car on mobile device
• 300,000 mi driven, one accident (human error)
• “Disruptive” technology? Maybe…but of whom?
• Changes concept of vehicle– Owned object delivered service
– GM selling cars – Google selling mobility service
Opportunities Considered Separately2. Non-petroleum Vehicles
• Electric (EV) and Fuel Cell Vehicles (FCV)
• Toyota and Honda bet: hybrids and FCV
• Nissan bet: utilitarian EV
• BMW and Tesla bet: driving experience EV
• Key insight: Tesla
– Vehicle must include re-charging infrastructure
– Fast charging: 30 minutes of less
• Charging conversation includes BMW and Nissan
• Disruptive? Somewhat
Toyota FCV – Tokyo Auto Show
Opportunities Considered Separately3. Fueling / Charging Infrastructure
• In U.S. 121,000 public fueling stations for ICE
• 19,000 public charging stations for EV as of 2013– 20% in California
– Few DC Fast Charging• Tesla: ½ re-charge in 20 minutes – realistically, 70-80 miles
• 50 hydrogen fuelling stations (almost all in CA)
• Key issue: must the alternative fuels match petroleum fuels in availability and convenience to reach the mainstream market?
But Isn’t Hydrogen Dangerous?
Ignition Energy of H2, CH
4
and gasoline with Air
Flammability Limits of H2 Are Seven Times Wider Than CH4
Fuel (% Volume)
Automotive Spark Plug
0 20 40 60 80 100
Ign
itio
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rgy
(mj)
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Brush Discharge
Human Spark
0.1
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1052
0.50.2
0.050.02
Flammability Limits
0.02
Common Static
CH4
H2
Gasoline
Opportunities Considered Separately4. Internet of Things
• Internet of Things (IoT)
– Information and communication links• From any thing to any other
• At any time
• At any location
– Vehicle to guidance/navigation
– Vehicle to safety systems
– Vehicle to fueling infrastructure
• Disruptive? Totally and unpredictably
Opportunities Considered Separately5. Distributed Electric Generation
• Driven by need for fast charging of EV• Locus of electric generation shifts:
– Large scale (1 GW) Local scale (1 MW)
• Works well when:– Fuel already distributed
• Natural gas for stationary fuel cell• Solar photovoltaic
– Saves transmission infrastructure– More robust to natural disaster or terrorists
• Important in EV space– Charging station: power intensive, high power, low energy– Needs to sell electricity back to grid– Promotes “green” image (and reality!)
• Disruptive? Only to electric utilities and only if they fail to compete
Greatest Value in Combination
• Holistic mobility service for people and things• Fleet of autonomous electric vehicles (EV)
– Connected to each other– Available by mobile app– Connected to charging infrastructure
• Optimization of service v. charging time
– Connected to shops
• Drone delivery? DHL testing in Germany, Amazon + Google
• Sustainable value creation– Low cost and efficient– Reduces urban traffic and parking congestion– Saves customer time
The New Competition:Market-Technology Fragmentation Drives Niches
It is a bit freaky with this wireless technology…
An Agenda for Today
• Part I: Urban mobility challenge
• Part II: Technology and opportunity
• Part IV: Entrepreneurial Leadership for System-Level innovation
• Part III: Information technology: driver of opportunity
– Progress in computing
– Progress in human-machine interface
Information Technology Drives Possibilities:Re-shape Road Mobility
• Information Technology
– Computers• Massively parallel
• New concepts—quantum computing
– Software• New concepts for human interaction
– Telecommunications networks
• “Infrastructure” technology
– Drives advances in a variety of fields
– Medicine, materials, biotech, energy
– And URBAN MOBILITY
Technology Drives Possibilities:Information Technology as Example
• Rate of change is exponential• Computation performance improves long term
Implications - Computers
• Human brain capacity (approximate)…– 100 x 109 neurons times
– 103 connections per neuron times
– 200 “calculations” per second per connection =
– 20 x 1015 calculations per second (cps)
• IBM “Blue Gene” supercomputer– 1 x 1015 cps by 2005
Implications - Computers
• Apply simple curve fitting model, and…
– Computers achieve one human brain capacity (2x1016 cps) for $1000 by 2023…
– One human brain capacity for $.01 by 2037
– One human race capacity for $1000 by 2049
– One human race capacity for $.01 by 2059
Accelerating Change:Some Illustrations
• Doubling time for computer speed (per unit cost)
– 1910 to 1950: three years
– 1950 to 1966: two years
– now: every year
• 90 years: first MIPS/$1000
– Now: add 1 MIPS/$1000 every day
• Affordability
– 1975: world’s fastest supercomputer cost $5 million
– 2011: cost of iPhone 4 with equal performance: $400
Accelerating Change (Continued)
• Miniaturization– Technology
disappears in Hollywood & life
• Electric motors
• Computers
• Phones
– Factor of 6 per linear dimension per decade
Implications:Cheap, fast computing installed on any size device
Yet More ImplicationsHuman Interface
• Human limitations…
– Learning time intensive
– Imperfect (omissions)
– Rapid decay curve (we forget)
– Poor transfer (can’t download)
• CPS capacity not same as “intelligence”
• Combination human + machine intelligence could be formidable
The Software Revolution:Computer as Extension of Human Thought
• Chief barrier: human-machine interface• Graphical User Interface: Apple 1984• IBM Watson today: a cognitive technology
– Reads and understands natural language• puns, synonyms and homonyms, slang and jargon.
– Analyzed unstructured data– Forms hypotheses when asked question– Tests hypotheses against data– Chooses best answer– Learns from success/failure
• Processes information more like human than computer
Current Research
• Primate experiments
– 2003 Duke University monkey moves cursor on screen• Device reads neural signals
• Translates into motion of robot arm
– 2008 University of Pittsburg• Primate learns to feed itself with thought control of robot arm
• Next: human prosthetic devices?
• Then: human thought control of, say, automobile?
• And then: “improved” baseball players?
Implications - Ethics
• Do we create a “master race”?
– Barry Bonds without steroids?
• Who gets these devices and why?
• What will the recipients do with their new powers?
Implications of Technology Revolution:Urban Mobility
• Car can be offered as a service, not as a thing
• Not for all markets
– No “zoom-zoom” experience
• Implications of car-as-service
– Less costly: spreads fixed costs of ownership
– Saves parking congestion
– Mobility for the poor
• But…less cars needed?
A Cautionary Note
• Too easy to extrapolate
Opportunities False Realities
• Much humility required
• Tend to imagine technology opportunities
within the present social constructs
• Some examples…
The Future that
Never
Happened
• Why?!?
• New wine in
the old wineskin
A Future that Never Happened
• failure to consider entire system
A Future that
Never Happened
• Why?
• Misapplied metaphor:
-- jet aircraft
Advertisement, Official Program, Seattle World’s Fair,
1963
An Agenda for Today
• Part I: The Urban Mobility Challenge
• Part II: Technology and opportunity
• Part III: Information technology: driver of opportunity
• Part IV: Entrepreneurial Leadership for System-Level innovation
Thinking Differently About Opportunity (Perhaps Better)
• What if we consider opportunities holistically?
• Could the combination create even more value?
• My thesis:
– Information technology allows previously singular innovations to combine to offer holistic value
– We need fresh ways of thinking about entrepreneurship and innovation to achieve
– System-level entrepreneurship, Systems Entrepreneurship
• Supplement, not replacement
Entrepreneurship for Urban MobilityAn Illustration
• Say you have invented a really good inductive charger for electric vehicles: singular innovation
– Highly efficient
– Flexible and robust
– Embedded control systems
– Quick charge at stop lights
• Now what?!?
– Who is customer?
– What else do you need to serve customer?
Entrepreneurship for Urban MobilityAn Illustration
• You need OEM to make compatible vehicles
• What else do you need?
OEM
Entrepreneurship for Urban MobilityAn Illustration
• You need high power electric supply
• What else do you need?
OEM
Electric Supply
Entrepreneurship for Urban MobilityAn Illustration
• You need permission from local authorities
• What else do you need?
OEM
Electric Supply
Permission from City
Entrepreneurship for Urban MobilityAn Illustration
• You need a construction/installation contractor
• What else do you need?
OEM
Electric Supply
Permission from City
Construction
Entrepreneurship for Urban MobilityAn Illustration
• You need an Innovation Ecosystem
• Partners collaborating continuously to achieve:
– An Innovation Ecosystem
The Central Question
• How can Innovation Ecosystems be built? – As a deliberate act of entrepreneurship?
• Emerging as important question in study of entrepreneurship
• Consider entrepreneur not as:– Small business
– Singular innovator
• But rather as ecosystem leader/manager
Tesla as Ecosystem Business Model
TeslaDesigner-Builder of vehicles
TeslaCharging Infrastructure
PanasonicBattery Factory
GovernmentsRegulations and Subsidies
U.S. FederalCaliforniaNevada
Solar CityInstaller of Solar Energy
Systems
Electric Utilities
Other Ecosystem Business Models
• R&D Consortia
– Tend to be task specific
• Venture forum connecting entrepreneurs and industry incumbents
• Collaborative research organizations
– EPRI
• Need to think differently about entrepreneurship
In Conclusion
• Cannot solve urban mobility challenge with better cars
– Even though better cars plainly desirable
• Think holistically
– Build Innovation Ecosystems to solve complex problems
…a time to cast away stones,
And a time to gather stones together…
Ecclesiastes 3:5
Entrepreneurial BehaviorsDomains of Habitual Thinking
Associative Thinking
Reductionist Thinking
Opportunity Creation•Anticipatory•Problem-finding•Action-oriented process•Outcome: marketplace
Process: solving technologyproblems posed by others
Outcome: effective solutions
Process: creating opportunitiesfrom technology
Outcome: economic growth andsocietal value from technologySolution Finding
•Reaction-driven•Problem solving•Thought-oriented process•Outcome: solution