complex university

adaptive 2013 and

beyond

operating environment

megatrends

education

economic growth

sustainability

strategic disruption solutions

outcomes

city

regional

state

national

international Complex Operating

Environment

scientific advances

Complex Operating

Environment

disruptive innovations

industry trends

macro- economic changes

operating environment

megatrends

education

economic growth

sustainability

strategic disruptive solutions

outcomes

Income Inequality in Bachelor’s

Degree Attainment

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Top Quartile

Third Quartile

Second Quartile

Bottom Quartile

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500

6 Y

ear

Gra

du

ati

on

Rate

Median SAT Score of Incoming Freshman

Few Universities Focused on Access and

Impact

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

6 Y

ear

Gra

du

ati

on

Rate

Percent of Undergrads Receiving Pell Grants

Family Income and Graduation Rates

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500

Perc

en

t U

nd

erg

rad

s

Receiv

ing

P

ell

G

ran

ts

Median SAT Score of Incoming Students

Test Scores and Family Income

Declining State Fiscal Support for Higher

Education per $1000 of Personal Income

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

$16

1978 1986 1994 2002 2010

National

Average

Arizona

University Infrastructure

in Arizona is Undersized

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800Non-Profit Higher Education Enrollment per 10,000 Population

0

50

100

150

200

250

1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011

Insufficient University Enrollment Growth

Relative to Arizona Population

Undergraduate

Students

Graduate

Students

Arizona Higher Education Enrollment per 10,000 Arizona Residents

operating environment

megatrends

education

economic growth

sustainability

strategic disruptive solutions

outcomes

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

105%

110%

115%

120%

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

Arizona Per Capita GDP Relative

to US Average

Arizona

Colorado

Minnesota

North

Carolina

Utah

Washington

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

105%

110%

115%

120%

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

Arizona Per Capita GDP Relative

to US Average

Arizona

Colorado

Minnesota

North

Carolina

Utah

Washington

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

105%

110%

115%

120%

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

Arizona Per Capita GDP Relative

to US Average

Arizona

Colorado

If Arizona matched

Colorado’s per capita GDP,

the economy of Arizona

would be $76.4 billion larger.

Arizona Export Growth Diverging

from National Trend

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

180%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

United

States

Arizona

Gro

wth

Rela

tive t

o J

an

. 2002

Other

Arms, Ammo

Optical, Med.

Instruments

Air and

Spacecraft

Electronics

Mineral, Chem.

Products

Machinery

Plant, Animal

Products

Metals

Plastics, Wood

Textiles

Composition of Arizona Exports

Ad

van

ced

Man

ufa

ctu

rin

g

Co

mm

od

itie

s

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Other

Arms, Ammo

Optical, Med.

Instruments

Air and

Spacecraft

Electronics

Mineral, Chem.

Products

Machinery

Plant, Animal

Products

Metals

Plastics, Wood

Textiles

Composition of Arizona Exports

Ad

van

ced

Man

ufa

ctu

rin

g

Co

mm

od

itie

s

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

operating environment

megatrends

education

economic growth

sustainability

strategic disruptive solutions

outcomes

Growing Drier

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Colorado River Flow

at Lee’s Ferry, AZ

Cu

bic

Feet

Per

Sec

on

d

Growing Drier and Hotter

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Colorado River Flow

at Lee’s Ferry, AZ

PHX June

Low Temp

Cu

bic

Feet

Per

Sec

on

d

Deg

rees

Arizona Energy Consumption: 1960-2009

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Tri

llio

n B

TU

s

Arizona Primary Energy Consumption: 1960-2009

Petroleum

Coal

Natural Gas

Nuclear Hydroelectric

Solar

Wind and other

Tri

llio

n B

TU

s

Year

operating environment

megatrends

education

economic growth

sustainability

strategic disruptive solutions

outcomes

strategic disruptive solutions

new health

new teacher,

new learner

new city

better designs,

better decisions

university as

enterprise

university as enterprise

new health

better designs, better decisions

McCain Institute

Complex Adaptive System Network

Center for Science and Imagination

Project Humanities

new city

new teacher, new learner

operating environment

megatrends

education

economic growth

sustainability

strategic disruption solutions

outcomes

Shanghai Jiao Tong University

ranks 1,000 universities

around the world each year.

ASU is 79th.

ASU ties Yale and Berkeley as

the 5th highest producer of U.S.

Fulbright Student Scholars.

The National Research Council

ranks more than half of

ASU’s 85 doctoral programs

in the Top 25 nationally.

The Wall Street Journal asked

corporate recruiters which schools

produce the best-qualified graduates.

ASU ranked 5th in the country.

There were 22 Flinn Scholars in 2012.

16 chose ASU.

ASU Lower Income Student Enrollment:

3% to 40%

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Un

derg

rad

uate

E

nro

llm

en

t

Connecting Lower Income Students to

Knowledge Creation at Unrivaled Scale

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

0 5 10 15

Percent Point Change in Freshman Receiving Pell Grants, 2008-10

To

tal

Pell U

nd

erg

rad

s,

20

10

ASU

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011

Undergrad Enrollment Per 10,000 Arizona Residents

ASU Enrollment Now Growing Faster

than Arizona Population

ASU

UA

NAU

All Others

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

$14,000

$14,500

$15,000

$15,500

$16,000

$16,500

$17,000

$17,500

$18,000

$18,500

Core Revenues per Student and Degrees Awarded

ASU Leads Degree Production Efficiency

ASU Research Expenditures: 1980-2012

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Millio

ns

ASU Research Expenditures: 1980-2020

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Millio

ns

Export value of Arizona cotton crop

ASU’s research expenditures

$385 million

$339 million

vision To establish ASU as the model for

the New American University, measured

not by who we exclude, but rather by

who we include and how they succeed;

pursuing research and discovery that

benefits the public good; assuming

major responsibility for the economic,

social and cultural vitality and health and

well-being of the community.

Demonstrate American leadership in academic excellence and accessibility

Maintain the fundamental principle of accessibility to all students qualified to study at a research university

Maintain university accessibility to match Arizona’s socioeconomic diversity

Improve freshmen persistence to 90%

Enhance university graduation rate to 75%-80% and 25,000 graduates

Enhance quality while reducing the cost of a degree

Enroll 100,000 online and distance education degree seeking students

Enhance linkages with community colleges so as to expand baccalaureate degree production to national leadership levels

Enhance measured student development and individual student learning to national leadership levels

Establish national standing in academic quality and impact of colleges and schools in every field

Attain national standing in academic quality for each college & school (top 5-10% for each college)

Attain national standing in the learning value added to our graduates in each college & school

Become the leading university academically (faculty, discovery, research, creativity) in at least one department or school within each college/school

Establish ASU as the global center for interdisciplinary research, discovery and development by 2020

Become a leading global center for interdisciplinary scholarship discovery and development

Become a leading American center for discovery and scholarship in the social sciences, arts and humanities

Enhance research competitiveness to more than $700 million in annual research expenditures

Augment regional economic competitiveness through research and discovery and value-added programs

Enhance our local impact and social embeddedness

Enhance linkage to local and regional social and community development groups

Establish/develop/enhance linkages and partnerships with local, regional and national NGO’s, governments and public agencies, and private sector firms with a focus on community development

Undertake applied sustainability research that impacts the social, environmental and economic evolution of the southwest

Provide an objective and ongoing facilitation role for the region’s progress

2 of 11

Establish ASU as the global center for interdisciplinary research, discovery and development by 2020

Demonstrate American leadership in academic excellence and accessibility

Establish national standing in academic quality and impact of colleges and schools in every field

Enhance our local impact and social embeddedness

Kyle Whitman

Notes and Data Citations

Slide 2: Complex Adaptive University Background picture source: “The Internet Map,” available at http://internet-map.net/ Slide 7: Inequality in College Degree Attainment Source: Postsecondary Education Opportunity, “Bachelor’s Degree Attainment by Age 24 by Family Income Quartiles, 1970 to 2010.” Slide 8: Institutions: Inputs Determine Outputs Source: ASU analysis of IPEDS data. Slide 9: Family Income and Graduation Rates Source: ASU analysis of IPEDS data. Slide 10: Test Scores and Graduation Rates Source: ASU analysis of IPEDS data. Slide 11: State Fiscal Support for Higher Education per $1000 of Personal Income Source: Postsecondary Education Opportunity Slide 12: State Support to Arizona Universities Reaches Zero in 2032 Given 32 Year Trend Source: Postsecondary Education Opportunity Slide 13: University Infrastructure in Arizona is Undersized Source: ASU analysis of IPEDS and BEA data. Slide 14: Insufficient University Enrollment Growth Relative to Arizona Population Source: ASU analysis of IPEDS and BEA data. Slide 16: Arizona Per Capita GDP Relative to US Average Source: ASU analysis of BEA data. Slide 17: Arizona Per Capita GDP Relative to US Average Source: ASU analysis of BEA data. Slide 18: Arizona Per Capita GDP Relative to US Average Source: ASU analysis of BEA data.

Slide 19: Performance of Sectors Source: ASU analysis of BEA data. Slide 20: Arizona Export Growth Diverging from National Trend Source: ASU Analysis of US Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Division data. Slide 21-2: Composition of Arizona Exports Source: ASU analysis of US Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Division data. Slide 24: Growing Drier Source: USGS, National Water Information System Slide 25: Growing Drier and Hotter Source: NOAA's National Climatic Data Center, Satellite and Information Service Slide 26: Arizona Energy Consumption: 1960-2009 Source: Energy Information Administration, Table CT2 Slide 40: ASU Lower Income Student Enrollment: 3% to 40% Source: ASU Office of Institutional Analysis Slide 41: Connecting Lower Income Students to Knowledge Creation at Unrivaled Scale Source: ASU analysis of IPEDS and NSF data. Slide 42: ASU Enrollment Now Growing Faster than Arizona Population Source: ASU analysis of IPEDS and BEA data. Slide 43: ASU Leads Degree Production Efficiency Source: Office of the University Planner, ASU Slide 44-5: ASU Research Expenditures Source: NSF, ASU Slide 46: Arizona Cotton and ASU research Source: ASU analysis of ASU and US Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Division data.