Ireland’s Competitiveness Challenge Adrian Devitt Competitiveness Department, Forfás 1.
Competitiveness and Growth: Key...
Transcript of Competitiveness and Growth: Key...
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Czech Republic Competitiveness and Growth: Key
Challenges
Martin TLAPA Deputy State Secretary for European Affairs
Office of the Government of the Czech Republic
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National Competitiveness
• National competitiveness is a popular term widely used by politicians, business leaders, scholars and ordinary people around the globe nowadays.
• Bill Clinton’s analogy that each nation is like “a big corporation competing in the global marketplace” (Krugman, 1997).
• Annual publication of world competitiveness reports: – World Economic Forum
– International Institute for Management Development
– World Bank
Office of the Government of the Czech Republic
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Competitiveness: A dangerous obsession?
• „Competitiveness is a meaningless concept when applied to national economies“(Krugman, 1994)
• Justifications: – uncompetitive corporations may go out of
business, countries do not have such a bottom line and therefore the concept of national competitiveness is elusive.
– countries do not compete with each other the way corporations do because international trade is not a zero-sum game, meaning one country’s gain is not another’s loss.
Office of the Government of the Czech Republic
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Why a dangerous obsession?
• Competitiveness policies “lead, directly and indirectly, to bad economic policies on a wide range of issues, domestic and foreign, whether it be in health care or trade” (Krugman, 1994)
• Three reasons for a dangerous obsession: • it could result in misallocation of resources in pursuit of
improving national competitiveness;
• it could lead to protectionism and trade wars;
• it could result in bad public policy on a spectrum of important issues.
Office of the Government of the Czech Republic
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Competitiveness Definitions
• Michael Porter (2004) “economic value is indirectly generated by nations through enterprises, therefore the role of the nations is to create an environment that promotes the activities of enterprises” and “the only meaningful concept of competitiveness at national level is national productivity”.
• Garelli (IMD) “competitiveness is not an objective in itself but an economic tool. However a tool is linked and dependent on the objectives pursued by the various economic actors, which constitute a nation.”
• WEF “competitiveness is the set of institutions, policies, and factors that make a nation remain productive over the longer term while ensuring social and environmental sustainability”
• OECD “competitiveness is the degree to which a nation can, under free trade and fair market conditions, produce goods and services which meet the test of international markets, while simultaneously maintaining and expanding the real incomes of its people over the longterm.”
Office of the Government of the Czech Republic
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Competitiveness and Growth
• Competitiveness seen as ability to earn or the economy's overall results in macroeconomic terms (higher GDP or standard of living).
• Source is seen in (or is even equivalent to) productivity (Porter, 1990)
Office of the Government of the Czech Republic
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Sekce pro evropské záležitosti Úřadu vlády ČR
•
GDP per capita/GCI
7
SE
SW
AT FI
DE
SK
ES IT
NO
LU
QA
Source: WEF, 2013
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Reports Rankings Comparasion
Sekce pro evropské záležitosti Úřadu vlády ČR
1
11
21
31
41
51
61
71
81
91
BE BU CZ DK EE FI FR HR IE IT LV LU HU DE NL PL PT AT RO EL SK SL UK ES SE
Pe
rce
ntu
áln
e u
mie
stn
en
ie
WEF
IMD
DB
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WEF vs. IMD
BE
BU
CZ
DK
EE
FI
FR
HR
IE
IT
LV
LU
HU
DE
NL
PL
PT
AT
RO EL
SK
SL
UK
ES
SE
y = 0.9077x + 1.2
1
2
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10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
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25
12345678910111213141516171819202122232425
IMD
WEF
Office of the Government of the Czech Republic
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Global Competitiveness 2007-2013
Sekce pro evropské záležitosti Úřadu vlády ČR
•
Source: WEF, 2013
31 33 33
31
36 38 39
46
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2006-2007 2007-2008 2008-2009 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014
FI
SE
NL
DE
CZ
PT
IT
SK
PL
HU
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Czech Republic vs. Switzerland (WEF)
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1
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Insitutions
Infrastructure
Macroeconomic environment
Healthcare and primarlyeducation
Higher education and training
Goods market efficiency
Labour market flexibility
Financial market development
Techonological readiness
Market size
Business sophistication
Inovation
Czech Rep. Switzerland
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Southern Europe vs. Northern Europe
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EU 27 vs. USA
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Weaknesses identified by WEF and IMD
• Political instability
• Public institutions
• Corruption
• Pension system
• Education system
• Labor market flexibility
• Finding consensus on EU policies
Office of the Government of the Czech Republic
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Weaknesses identified by the WB
• Starting Business
• Paying taxes
• Enforcing contracts
• Dealing with construction permits
• Obtaining an electricity connection
Office of the Government of the Czech Republic
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Weaknesses identified by the European Commission
• Increasing structural budget deficit
• Taxation of labour and discrepancies in the tax treatment of employees and the self-employed
• Efficiency of tax administration
• Long-term sustainability of public finance
• Child-care services
• Education system
• Efficiency of public administration and corruption
• Energy efficiency in the buildings and industry
Office of the Government of the Czech Republic
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Challenges for the Czech Republic?
Office of the Government of the Czech Republic
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Challenges for the Czech Republic
• Stabilization and restoring trust in politics
Office of the Government of the Czech Republic
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Confidence in Government (December 2013)
Office of the Government of the Czech Republic
21%
24%
28%
41%
41%
59%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Chamber of Deputies
Government
Senate
President
Regional government
Municipal government
December 2013, CVVM
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Corruption and Government (Gallup Institute, 2013)
Office of the Government of the Czech Republic
Gallup Institute, 2013
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Challenges for the Czech Republic
• Stabilization and restoring trust in politics
• Stabilization of macroeconomic conditions
Office of the Government of the Czech Republic
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Government Deficit Outlook % GDP
Office of the Government of the Czech Republic
MF, 2014
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Government Debt Outlook % GDP
Office of the Government of the Czech Republic
MF, 2014
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Challenges for the Czech Republic
• Stabilization and restoring trust in politics (including fight against corruption)
• Stabilization of macroeconomic conditions
• Long-term sustainability of public finance
Office of the Government of the Czech Republic
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Office of the Government of the Czech Republic
Long-term sustainability
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
% GPD
Public pension expenditure Public expenditure on health Public expenditure on long term care
MF, 2014
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Challenges for the Czech Republic
• Stabilization and restoring trust in politics
• Stabilization of macroeconomic conditions
• Long-term sustainability of public finance
• Prevent cyclical unemployment
Office of the Government of the Czech Republic
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Office of the Government of the Czech Republic
Structural unemployment rate
OECD, 2014
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Challenges for the Czech Republic
• Stabilization and restoring trust in politics
• Stabilization of macroeconomic conditions
• Long-term sustainability of public finance
• Prevent cyclical unemployment
• Address social aspects of crisis
Office of the Government of the Czech Republic
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Office of the Government of the Czech Republic
Risk of poverty (% of population)
7
7.5
8
8.5
9
9.5
10
10.5
11
2008 2009 2010 2011
total
male
female
vupsv, 2013
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Challenges for the Czech Republic
• Stabilization and restoring trust in politics
• Stabilization of macroeconomic conditions
• Long-term sustainability of public finance
• Prevent cyclical unemployment
• Address social aspects of crisis
• Improve labour productivity
Office of the Government of the Czech Republic
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Office of the Government of the Czech Republic
Average tax wedge on labour
OECD, 2014
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Hourly labour productivity levels
OECD, 2014
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Office of the Government of the Czech Republic
Regulation of temporary contracts
0
1
1
2
2
3
3
4
4
GB
R
NL
D
SW
E
IRL
ISR
DE
U
DN
K
FIN
HU
N
CZ
E
AU
T
PO
L
PR
T
BE
L
SV
K
ITA
GR
C
ES
T
ES
P
FR
A
Scale 0-6
Temporary work agency employment Fixed-term contracts
OECD, 2013
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Challenges for the Czech Republic
• Stabilization and restoring trust in politics
• Stabilization of macroeconomic conditions
• Long-term sustainability of public finance
• Prevent cyclical unemployment
• Address social aspects of crisis
• Improve labour productivity
• Effective system of investment incentives
Office of the Government of the Czech Republic
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Office of the Government of the Czech Republic
FDI STOCKS
ČNB, 2014
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
mil/EUR
CZ
PL
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Challenges for the Czech Republic
• Stabilization and restoring trust in politics
• Stabilization of macroeconomic conditions
• Long-term sustainability of public finance
• Prevent cyclical unemployment
• Address social aspects of crisis
• Improve labour market flexibility
• Effective system of investment incentives
• Fostering innovative and dynamic entrepreneurship
Office of the Government of the Czech Republic
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Innovation performance
Office of the Government of the Czech Republic
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Challenges for the Czech Republic
• Stabilization and restoring trust in politics • Stabilization of macroeconomic conditions • Long-term sustainability of public finance • Prevent cyclical unemployment • Address social aspects of crisis • Improve labour productivity • Effective system of investment incentives • Fostering innovative and dynamic
entrepreneurship • Enhancing education
Office of the Government of the Czech Republic
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Office of the Government of the Czech Republic
Educational achievement
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Challenges for the Czech Republic
• Stabilization and restoring trust in politics • Stabilization of macroeconomic conditions • Long-term sustainability of public finance • Prevent cyclical unemployment • Address social aspects of crisis • Improve labor productivity • Effective system of investment incentives • Fostering innovative and dynamic entrepreneurship • Enhancing education • Economic dependency on the euro area
Office of the Government of the Czech Republic
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Office of the Government of the Czech Republic
Year-on-year changes in real GDP and in the industrial production index (%)
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Office of the Government of the Czech Republic
Shares of exports to the euro area in total exports (%)
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Office of the Government of the Czech Republic
Shares of imports from the euro area in total imports (%)
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Challenges for the Czech Republic
• Stabilization and restoring trust in politics • Stabilization of macroeconomic conditions • Long-term sustainability of public finance • Prevent cyclical unemployment • Address social aspects of crisis • Improve labor productivity • Effective system of investment incentives • Fostering innovative and dynamic entrepreneurship • Enhancing education • Economic dependency on the euro area • Position in global economy
Office of the Government of the Czech Republic
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GVC participation index in OECD countries (2009)
Office of the Government of the Czech Republic
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Trade in Value Added
Total manufacturing
15T16: Food products, beverages and tobacco
17T19: Textiles, textile products, leather and footwear
20T22: Wood, paper, paper products, printing and publishing
23T26: Chemicals and non-metallic mineral products
27T28: Basic metals and fabricated metal products
29: Machinery and equipment, nec
30T33: Electrical and optical equipment
34T35: Transport equipment
36T37: Manufacturing nec; recycling
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
CR
Denmark
Sweden
Office of the Government of the Czech Republic
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Strengthening growth in the long run?
What policy responses?
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Office of the Government of the Czech Republic
• Build mutual trust between the government and citizens; public administration and taxpayers
• Adopting Act on the Civil Service as the first step to improving stability and effectiveness of public administration
• Promote an active role of public administration: prevent privatization of administration activities
• Implementation of strict anti-corruption measures and prevent poor or illegitimate public finance management
• Improving collection of taxes and reducing tax evasion
Trust building management
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Office of the Government of the Czech Republic
• Formulating a long-term vision of the Czech economic policy for turbulent times - address the necessary steps that can ensure the sustainable level of prosperity in years ahead.
• Avoid inefficient and short-term perception of the problems and look for real and appropriate solutions.
• Creating a central coordination body and establish system of systematic implementations of reforms.
• Play active role in European integration project. Become part of core of the EU and support further integration of the internal market.
Vision and delivery
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Office of the Government of the Czech Republic
• Reduce unnecessary administrative burden. Simplify tax collection and ensure stable and business friendly environment (including infrastructure).
• Improve education system so that it will reflect the needs of labor market. Establish the funding system framework, which supports the quality and relevance of education.
• Enhance cooperation of research institutions and private sector by establishing a funding system reflecting needs of industry.
• Enhance programs improving qualification of workers according to the needs of labor market. Increase the capacity and competences of Labor Offices shifting towards active consultancy role.
• Reduce the poverty risks by improving accessibility, quality and variability of social services.
• Systematic approach to investment promotion system that is more focused on value added and motivation for reinvestment.
Productivity
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Office of the Government of the Czech Republic
• Link discussions about future of the Czech economy with analyses of global trends. This will lead to systematic thinking and rational decision making in terms of economic heading of the Czech Republic.
• Building a system and developing capabilities for monitoring of world markets and progress in the field of R&D and new high technologies.
• Identification of key technology areas for the future of the Czech Republic.
Thinking in global perspectives
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Office of the Government of the Czech Republic
Foresight vs. Forecast
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Towards new export policy
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Services of Agencies
Market intelligence
Foresight
Business plans
Seed capital
Technology transfer
IPR
KETs
Global needs Innovation
Internationalisation
Commertialisation
Business Opportunities
Institutions
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Office of the Government of the Czech Republic
• Foresight is the process of monitoring: – global markets and
– developments in R&D and technologies enabling the early identification of social, economic and technological trends.
• Foresight services for public funding – prioritizing public funding and support of innovation and R&D based on
collected data.
• Foresight services for exporters – help domestic businesses identify perspective sectors for their activities in
foreign markets;
– enable companies to make better decisions regarding investment in innovation and respond to emerging opportunities;
– strengthen their competitiveness and value added of their products and services.
Foresight for growth
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Policy Responses of the Czech Republic
1. Build trust
2. Bring vision and delivery
3. Enhance productivity
4. Think in global perspectives
Office of the Government of the Czech Republic
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Thank you for your attention!
Martin TLAPA
Office of the Government of the Czech Republic