Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Transcript of Competitive Access Technologies 110206
Competitive Access Technologies
SCTE November 2, 2006
David R. KozischekManager Strategic Technology
Corning Cable Systems
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• Purpose• Baseline Bandwidth needs for the Residential Subscriber
– Forces Affecting Residential Subscriber Bandwidth• Correlation between work bandwidth and home bandwidth• Data…Needs versus Wants• Demographic Change• Bandwidth per Application• Symmetric versus Asymmetric Bandwidth• Video Compression• Increase in the number of digital “streams”
• Technology Analysis (Downstream and Upstream)– HFC– ADSL & VDSL– PON
• Future of Cable, DSL and FTTH• Verizon Deployment Update
Competitive Access TechnologiesOutline
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• What this Presentation Provides– Analysis of the technical limitations of different access solutions to deliver Voice, Video and Data
services to residential customers
• What this Presentation DOES NOT Provide– Economic and/or financial analysis of the different access solutions
Competitive Access TechnologiesPurpose
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• Purpose• Baseline Bandwidth needs for the Residential Subscriber
– Forces Affecting Residential Subscriber Bandwidth• Correlation between work bandwidth and home bandwidth• Data…Needs versus Wants• Demographic Change• Bandwidth per Application• Symmetric versus Asymmetric Bandwidth• Video Compression• Increase in the number of digital “streams”
• Technology Analysis– HFC– ADSL & VDSL– PON
Competitive Access TechnologiesOutline
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Baseline Bandwidth Needs for the Residential Subscriber
• Koz Theorem… Residential customers will want the same bandwidth at home that they get at work
Avg Work (Desktop) Speeds vs Max & Avg Res SpeedsData Only
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20
40
60
80
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Mb
ps
Avg Desk Top BW (Mb/s)
Max (Power users) Res BW (Mb/s)
Avg Res BW (Mb/s)
Avg Res BW (Mbps) Source: TechnologiesFutures Inc. 2004
Source: CCS SPBD Technical Modeling
Power Users
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Baseline Bandwidth Needs for the Residential Subscriber
• For Data, its not what the Customers need…. It’s what they WANT
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20 5
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Baseline Bandwidth Needs for the Residential Subscriber
• Demographic Change
Percent UsingBroadband
60%60%55%50%49%45%34%
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Baseline Bandwidth Needs for the Residential Subscriber
• Application change– Files get bigger so speed per
application needs to increase
In 1993 the Average File size was 22 kb
Top 25 File ExtensionsRank type App Average Size (MB)
1 avi video 17302 mp3 audio 44 exe software 7.25 mpeg video 209 wav audio 15
25 jpeg image 0.044Source eMarketer Oct 2003
Note: This shows a Shift in demographics. This Analysis was done at UC-Berkley.These are the type of files the Next-Generation will beUploading and downloading
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Bandwidth Demand – Today and Tomorrow Symmetric traffic load when bandwidth is available
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
10:00 AM 4:00 PM 10:00 PM 4:00 AM 10:00 AM
Upload – Avg. 0.589 GB
Download – Avg. 0.584 GB
Total GB transferred each hour(Feb 1 / 2 , 2005)
10
20
30
40
50
60
12/16/04 12/23/04 12/30/04 1/6/05 1/13/05
Total GB transferred each day
Upload – Avg. 16.6 GB
Download – Avg. 20.4 GB
Courtesy of Paxio Inc.Courtesy of Paxio Inc.
In 1993 the Average File size
was 22 kb
Top 25 File Extensions
Rank Type Application Avg. Size(in MB)
1 .avi Video 1730
2 .mp3 Audio 4
4 .exe Software 7.2
5 .mpeg Video 20
9 .wav Audio 15
25 .jpeg Image 0.044
Source: eMarketer, October 2003
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Baseline Bandwidth Needs for the Residential Subscriber
• Application change– Files get bigger so speed per application needs to
increase…Example-Digital Cameras
Digital Camera File Size (MB) vs Megapixels
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
1 2 3 4 5 6
MPixels
MB
ytes
File Size (MB)
Source: CCS SPBD Technical Modeling
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Baseline Bandwidth Needs for the Residential Subscriber• Video Compression lowers bandwidth requirements• MPEG-2 • MPEG-4 • H.263 • H.264/AVC • Window Media 9 Series Video Codec
1080p will require approx
16Mbps
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Baseline Bandwidth Needs for the Residential Subscriber
• Video does not Stop with HDTV
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Baseline Bandwidth Needs for the Residential Subscriber
• Increase in Digital “Streams”– Personal video recorders will impact residential bandwidth by
increasing the number of digital streams
Digital TV Subs vs PVR's
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50
100
150
200
250
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Mil
lio
ns
Digital TV Subs
PVR's
Source: eMarketer 2004 and Corning Cable Systems
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 CAGRDigital TV Subs 44.2 50 58 68 78 93.0 117.0 140.2 168.0 201.3 20%PVR's 3.2 5.9 10.4 16.7 25.3 36.0 47.0 66.4 93.7 132.3 41%% of HH W/DVR 7% 12% 18% 25% 32% 39% 40% 47% 56% 66%
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2003 2004 2005Bandwidth Requirements (MAX) Mbps Mbps Mbps Max Data (Dwn) 2 3 4Voice 0.064 0.064 0.064VoD 4 4 4Std TV 4 4 4HDTV 19 15 13PVR Factor (% HDTV) 7% 12% 19%
2003 2004 2005Digital Streams Qty Qty QtyData (Dwn) 1 1 1Voice 1 3 3VoD 1 1 1Std TV 2 1 1HDTV 0 0.5 1Add Stream 0 0.12 0.19Max (Mbps) 14.1 19.2 25.9Source: CCS SPBD Modeling
Baseline Bandwidth Needs for the Residential Subscriber (Downstream Analysis)• Number and Type of Digital Streams Increase
– PVR’s and Pic-in-Pic will increase bandwidth Requirements– HDTV will increase bandwidth requirements
Power Users
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Baseline Bandwidth Needs for the Residential Subscriber (Downstream Analysis)
• Digital Data (Mbps) Requirements-Data, Voice and IP Video– Avg values
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Bandwidth Requirements (Avg) Mbps Mbps Mbps Mbps Mbps Mbps Mbps Mbps Mbps MbpsAvg Users (Mbps) 0.8 1.5 2.1 3.0 4.3 6.1 8.7 12.3 17.5 24.8Voice 0.064 0.064 0.064 0.064 0.064 0.064 0.064 0.064 0.064 0.064VoD 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 2Std TV 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 2HDTV 19 15 13 10 8 8 8 8 8 8PVR Factor (% HDTV) 7% 12% 18% 25% 32% 39% 40% 47% 56% 66%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Digital Streams Qty Qty Qty Qty Qty Qty Qty Qty Qty QtyData (Dwn) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Voice 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3VoD 0 1 1 1 1 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5Std TV 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1HDTV 0 0 0 0.5 1 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5Add Stream 0 0.09 0.13 0.18 0.24 0.29 0.30 0.35 0.42 0.49Avg (Mbps) 8.9 14.0 14.9 18.1 22.4 25.1 27.8 31.8 37.5 43.9
HSD BW Demand Grows at 42% CAGR
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Baseline Bandwidth Needs for the Residential Subscriber (Downstream Analysis)
• Digital Data (Mbps) Requirements-Data, Voice and IP Video– Max values for the “Power User”
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Bandwidth Requirements (MAX) Mbps Mbps Mbps Mbps Mbps Mbps Mbps Mbps Mbps Mbps Power Users (Mbps) HSD 1 2 3 4.8 7.7 12.3 19.7 31.5 50.3 80.5Voice 0.064 0.064 0.064 0.064 0.064 0.064 0.064 0.064 0.064 0.064VoD 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 2Std TV 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 2HDTV 19 15 13 10 8 8 8 8 8 8PVR Factor (% HDTV) 7% 12% 18% 25% 32% 39% 40% 47% 56% 66%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Digital Streams Qty Qty Qty Qty Qty Qty Qty Qty Qty QtyData (Dwn) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Voice 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3VoD 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1Std TV 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1HDTV 0 0.5 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2Add Stream 0 0.12 0.18 0.25 0.32 0.39 0.40 0.47 0.56 0.66Avg Num of Computers/HH 1 1 1.5 1.5 1.75 2 2 3 3 3Avg Num of TVs/HH 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4Max Power Users (Mbps) 13.1 18.2 24.9 25.4 30.5 37.6 45.1 57.4 77.0 106.0
HSD BW Demand Grows at 60% CAGR
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Baseline Bandwidth Needs for the Residential Subscriber (Downstream Analysis)
• Number of Video Streams
Averager user # of streams 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Total HSD Streams 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Total Voice Streams 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3Total STD TV Streams 2 3 3 3 2 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5Total HD TV Streams 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.2 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.0Total Video TV Streams 2.0 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.5
Power user # of streams 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Total HSD Streams 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Total Voice Streams 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3Total STD TV Streams 3 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2Total HD TV Streams 0.0 0.6 1.2 1.2 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7Total Video TV Streams 3.0 2.6 3.2 3.2 3.3 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7
Averager user # of streams 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Total HSD Streams 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Total Voice Streams 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3Total STD TV Streams 2 3 3 3 2 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5Total HD TV Streams 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.2 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.0Total Video TV Streams 2.0 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.5
Power user # of streams 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Total HSD Streams 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Total Voice Streams 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3Total STD TV Streams 3 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2Total HD TV Streams 0.0 0.6 1.2 1.2 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7Total Video TV Streams 3.0 2.6 3.2 3.2 3.3 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7
Power users will start to separate from Avg user in 2008
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Baseline Bandwidth Needs for the Residential Subscriber-SPBD Modeling-IP Video (Downstream Analysis)
• Digital Data (Mbps) Requirements-Data, Voice and Video– Graphic View (Max-Power Users and Average Users) 2003-
2012
Estimated Residential Bandwidth RequirementsMax versus Average
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Mb
ps
Max Power Users (Mbps)
Avg Users (Mbps)
Source: CCS SPBD Technical Modeling
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Baseline Bandwidth Needs for the Residential Subscriber-SPBD Modeling-RF Video (Downstream Analysis)
• Digital Data (Mbps) Requirements-Data, Voice and Video– Graphic View (Max-
Power Users and Average Users) 2003-2012
Estimated Residential Bandwidth RequirementsMax versus Average (RF Video)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Mb
ps Max Power Users (Mbps)
Avg Users (Mbps)
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Baseline Bandwidth Needs for the Residential Subscriber-IP & RF Video (Downstream Analysis)
• Bandwidth Requirements-Data, Voice and Video– Bandwidth Requirements are Driven by Delivery Platform
• Telco IPTV over Twisted Pair• CATV MSO RF Video over HFCEstimated Residential Bandwidth Requirements
Max versus Average (IP Video)
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20
40
60
80
100
120
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Mb
ps
Max Power Users (Mbps)Avg Users (Mbps)
Source: CCS SPBD Technical Modeling
xx% of Subs that require > 25 Mbps
Note: From Technologies Futures Inc. 2005, Fisher-Pry Substitution model.
2% 20% 60%
Estimated Residential Bandwidth RequirementsMax versus Average (RF Video)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Mbp
s
Max Power Users (Mbps)
Avg Users (Mbps)
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Estimated Residential Bandwidth Requirements(Max vs Avg)
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Mb
ps
Max Power Users (Mbps)Avg (Mbps)
Jas Shangha, AFCIOC 2004 (Mbps)MDV Average
MDV top 10%
Source: CCS SPBD Technical Modeling
Baseline Bandwidth Needs for the Residential Subscriber-SPBD Modeling and Other Views (Downstream Analysis)
• Digital Data (Mbps) Requirements-Data, Voice and Video– Graphic View (Max-Power Users and Average Users) 2003-
2012
CCS SPBDModeling
CCS SPBDModeling
Power Users
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Baseline Bandwidth Needs for the Residential Subscriber-SPBD Modeling and Other Views (Downstream Analysis)
• What Does it Mean?– Bandwidth is King…And will be used as a Competitive
Weapon– Marketing will Target and Exploit the “User Experience”
MP3 Music FileFile Size (MB) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4File Size (Mbps) 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32Downstream Rate (Mbps) 0.5 1 2 4 5 10 15 25 50Downstream Rate % Overhead 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25%Downstream Rate (Mbps) Adj 0.375 0.75 1.5 3 3.75 7.5 11.25 18.75 37.5Time to Download (sec) 85.33 42.67 21.33 10.67 8.53 4.27 2.84 1.71 0.85Time to Download (Min) 1.42 0.71 0.36 0.18 0.14 0.07 0.05 0.03 0.01
Digital Photos FileFile Size (MB) 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60File Size (Mbps) 480 480 480 480 480 480 480 480 480Downstream Rate (Mbps) 0.5 1 2 4 5 10 15 25 50Downstream Rate % Overhead 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25%Downstream Rate (Mbps) Adj 0.375 0.75 1.5 3 3.75 7.5 11.25 18.75 37.5Time to Download (sec) 1280.00 640.00 320.00 160.00 128.00 64.00 42.67 25.60 12.80Time to Download (Min) 21.33 10.67 5.33 2.67 2.13 1.07 0.71 0.43 0.21Source:CCS SPBD
DSL
Cable FTTH
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Baseline Bandwidth Needs for the Residential Subscriber-SPBD Modeling and Other Views (Downstream Analysis)
• What Does it Mean?– Bandwidth is King…And will be used as a Competitive
Weapon– Marketing will Target and Exploit the “User Experience”
HDTV 2 Hr Movie Download File Size (MB) 18000 18000 18000 18000 18000 18000 18000 18000 18000File Size (Mbps) 144000 144000 144000 144000 144000 144000 144000 144000 144000Downstream Rate (Mbps) 0.256 0.384 0.768 1 5 10 25 50 100Downstream Rate % Overhead 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25%Downstream Rate (Mbps) Adj 0.192 0.288 0.576 0.75 3.75 7.5 18.75 37.5 75Time to Download (sec) 750000 500000 250000 192000 38400 19200 7680 3840 1920Time to Download (Min) 12500 8333 4167 3200 640 320 128 64 32Time to Download (Hrs) 208 139 69 53 11 5 2 1.1 0.5Time to Download (Days) 9 6 3 2 0 0 0 0 0Source:CCS SPBD
DSL
Cable FTTH
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Baseline Bandwidth Needs for the Residential Subscriber- Bandwidth beyond 2012 (Downstream Analysis)
• Bandwidth Curve Extrapolation
Estimated Residential Bandwidth Requirements(Power vs Normal User)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Mb
ps
Max Power Users (Mbps)
Normal Users (Mbps)
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Baseline Bandwidth Needs for the Residential Subscriber- Bandwidth beyond 2012 (Downstream Analysis)
• Drivers for Increased Bandwidth– “The 1 and 2 Min Drills”
Application Download Times (Min)
0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.0
1 5 10 100 500 1000 10000Mbps
Min
MP3
MS Office
Dig Photos (60MB)
File (100MB)
10 Mbps will enable < 2 Min Downloads for
most of today’s Applications
>60Mbps will be needed for
< 1 Min Downloads for most of today’s
Applications
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Application Download Times (Min)
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
1 5 10 100 500 1000 10000Mbps
Min
DVD
HD DVD
Baseline Bandwidth Needs for the Residential Subscriber- Bandwidth beyond 2012 (Downstream Analysis)
• Drivers for Increased Bandwidth– “The 1 and 2 Min Drills”
>1 Gbps will enable < 2 Min Downloads for
tomorrows Applications
10 Gbps will be needed for < 1 Min Downloads for tomorrows Applications
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• Purpose• Baseline Bandwidth needs for the Residential Subscriber
– Forces Affecting Residential Subscriber Bandwidth• Correlation between work bandwidth and home bandwidth• Data…Needs versus Wants• Demographic Change• Bandwidth per Application• Symmetric versus Asymmetric Bandwidth• Video Compression• Increase in the number of digital “streams”
• Technology Analysis (Downstream and Upstream)– HFC– ADSL & VDSL– PON
Competitive Access TechnologiesOutline
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Technology Analysis
• HFC• ADSL & VDSL• PON
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• Increase in Downstream Channel Allocation– Digital Services require Spectrum
• Data• Standard Digital TV/High Definition TV• VOD
5 MHz 860 MHz54 MHz 550 MHz
6MHz Data
64 QAM=10 SDTV CH256 QAM=12-15 SDTV CH
64 QAM=3 SDTV CH, 1 HDTV CH256 QAM=5 SDTV CH, 1 HDTV CH256 QAM= 2 HDTV CH
VOD 10 Streams
6MHz
6MHz
6MHz
Increase in new service penetration will lead to
allocation of more downstream channels
Data
SDTV
HDTV
VoD
CapabilitiesCATV HFC Network (Downstream Analysis)
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• DOCSIS 1.0 to DOCSIS 2.X to DOCSIS 3.0– Residential Bandwidth is a function of Homes per Node
CapabilitiesCATV HFC Network (Downstream Analysis)
Cable Modem (Max DWN Rate vs HH/Node)
0
20
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60
80
100
120
140
500 400 300 200 150 100 50Homes per Node
Mb
ps Data (Dwn) DOCSIS 1.0-2.X
Data (Dwn) DOCSIS 3.0
Source: CCS SPBD Technical Modeling
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Estimated Residential Bandwidth RequirementsMax versus Average (RF Video)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Mb
ps Max Power Users (Mbps)
Avg Users (Mbps)
• DOCSIS 1.0 to DOCSIS 2.X to DOCSIS 3.0– Residential Bandwidth Requirements vs Cable Capabilities– For HFC you need to look at Data Delivery… Video can be Handled
by QAM
CapabilitiesCATV HFC Network (Downstream Analysis)
DOCSIS 2.0 can support Power Users Residential BW Requirements Out to 2010
DOCSIS 1-2.0 @ 500 HHP/Node
DOCSIS 1-2.0 @ 50 HHP/Node
DOCSIS 3.0 @ 100 HHP/Node
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Estimated Max Residential Bandwidth Requirements
0
20
40
60
80
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Mb
ps
Cable Modem (Max DWN Rate vs HH/Node)
0
20
40
60
80
500 400 300 200 150 100 50Homes per Node
Mb
ps
DOCSIS 1.0-2.XMaxDw n Rate (Mbps)
DOCSIS 3.0 MaxDw n Rate (Mbps)
Source: Corning Cable Systems
CapabilitiesCATV HFC Network (Downstream Analysis)
• DOCSIS 1.0 to DOCSIS 2.X to DOCSIS 3.0– Keep RF Video
In 2007 HFC networks will need to be<150 Homes per node for DOCSIS 2.0…Average today is 400 H/N
In 2010 HFC networks will need to be<50 Homes per node for DOCSIS 2.0 and < 200 for DOCSIS 3.0
Power Users
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Technology Analysis
• HFC• ADSL & VDSL• PON• WiMax• BPL (Broadband Over Powerline)
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CapabilitiesADSL, ADSL2,Bonded ADSL2,ADSL2+,VDSL (Downstream Analysis)
• Asymmetrical Digital Subscriber Line– Copper Solution
ADSLMUX
Local Loop
Services
Data
Voice
ADSLmodem
OC-3, OC-12
POTS Splitter
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CapabilitiesADSL, ADSL2,Bonded ADSL2,ADSL2+,VDSL (Downstream Analysis)
• PSTN Network Requires an ALL DIGITAL Bit Stream– Data,VoiP,VoD,STD TV, HDTV will need to be digital bit
streams
Note: These Loop Lengths are the MAX distance you can deploy and still be able to deliver the Max Data Rate
ADSL ADSL2Bonded ADSL2 ADSL2+ VDSL VDSL
VDSL2 Band
VDSL3 Band
VDSL4 Band
VDSL5 Band
Bandwidth Capabilities Mbps Mbps Mbps Mbps Mbps Mbps Mbps Mbps Mbps MbpsData Down (Max) 9 12 25 25 55 25 35 65 65 100Data Up 0.8 1 1 1 6 3 6 11 35 35
Length Requirements Ft Ft Ft Ft Ft Ft Ft Ft Ft FtLoop Length (Max) 9000 5000 6000 3000 1000 3000 1000 1000 1000 500
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Estimated Residential Bandwidth RequirementsMax versus Average (IP Video)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Mb
ps
Max Power Users (Mbps)Avg Users (Mbps)
Source: CCS SPBD Technical Modeling
CapabilitiesADSL, ADSL2,Bonded ADSL2,ADSL2+,VDSL (Downstream Analysis)
• PSTN Network Requires an ALL DIGITAL Bit Stream– Data,VoiP,VoD,STD TV, HDTV will need to be Digital Bit Streams– VDSL at 3000 Feet is not Enough Bandwidth
VDSL5 @ 500Ft Loop
VDSL @ 3000Ft Loop
VDSL @ 1000Ft Loop
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Technology Analysis (Downstream)
• HFC• ADSL & VDSL• PON
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CapabilitiesPON
SiSi
OLT
ONT
SiSi
SiSi
SiSi
Splitter
Optical Distribution Network
SiSi
OLT
ONT
SiSi
SiSi
SiSi
Splitter
Optical Distribution Network
SiSi
OLT
ONT
SiSi
SiSi
SiSi
Splitter
Optical Distribution Network
• B-PON (Today) G-PON (Tomorrow• Full Service Access Network (FSAN)• ATM Network• Split Ratio up to 32 for B-PON• Split Ratio up to 128 for G-PON
Network Line Rates
Upstream Downstream UnitB-PON 155 155 Mb/s
622 622 Mb/s155
Upstream Downstream UnitG-PON 155 Gb/s
622 Gb/s1.244 Gb/s2.488 2.488 Gb/s
1.244 or 2.488UnitMb/sMb/sGb/sGb/s
UnitMb/sMb/s
1.244 or 2.4881.244 or 2.488
Figure 16
Upstream Downstream UnitB-PON 155 155 Mb/s
622 622 Mb/s155
Upstream Downstream UnitG-PON 155 Gb/s
622 Gb/s1.244 Gb/s2.488 2.488 Gb/s
Upstream Downstream UnitG-PON 155 Gb/s
622 Gb/s1.244 Gb/s2.488 2.488 Gb/s
1.244 or 2.488UnitMb/sMb/sGb/sGb/s
UnitMb/sMb/s
1.244 or 2.4881.244 or 2.488
Figure 16
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CapabilitiesPON w RF Video (Downstream Analysis)
• PON Networks Migration– Data is handled by ATM protocol– Video is RF
Estimated Residential Bandwidth Requirements Vs PON CapabilitiesRF Video
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Mb
ps
Max Power Users (Mbps)
PON BW per Sub (1x32 Split)
PON BW per Sub (1x32 -1x64 Split)
Avg (Mbps)
Source: Corning Cable Systems
BPON @ 622 Mbps
GPON @ 1.244 Gbps
GPON @ 2.488 Gbps
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CapabilitiesPON w/ IP Video (Downstream Analysis)
• PON Networks Migration– Data is handled by ATM protocol– Video is IP
Estimated Residential Bandwidth Requirements Vs PON CapabilitiesIP Video
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Mb
ps
Max Power Users (Mbps)
PON BW per Sub (1x32 Split)
PON BW per Sub (1x32 -1x64 Split)
Avg (Mbps)
Source: Corning Cable Systems
Estimated Residential Bandwidth Requirements Vs PON CapabilitiesIP Video
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Mb
ps
Max Power Users (Mbps)
PON BW per Sub (1x32 Split)
PON BW per Sub (1x32 -1x64 Split)
Avg (Mbps)
Source: Corning Cable Systems
PON can meet Avg and Max BW Demand and improve Efficiencies by migrating to higher split rations
Power Users
Figure 17a
BPON 622 Mb/s
GPON 1.244 Gb/s
GPON 2.488 Gb/s
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CapabilitiesPON w IP Video (Downstream Analysis)• PON Network Migration
– IP Video is Easily Migrated into the Network– FTTH will Migrate to 2.4Gbps PONs….They will “Bypass” 1.2Gbps
PONs
Estimated Residential Bandwidth RequirementsMax versus Average (IP Video)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Mb
ps
Max Power Users (Mbps)Avg Users (Mbps)
Source: CCS SPBD Technical Modeling
BPON @ 1x32 Split
1.2Gbps GPON @ 1x32 Split
2.4Gbps GPON @ 1x32 Split
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Technology Analysis (Upstream)
• HFC• ADSL & VDSL• PON
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Baseline Bandwidth Needs for the Residential Subscriber (Upstream Analysis) 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Bandwidth Requirements (MAX) File Size Mbps Mbps Mbps Mbps Mbps Mbps Mbps Mbps Mbps Mbps Internet Web Page Requests 0.2 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20Peer to Peer Video Transfer (MPG2) 480 480 480 480 489.60 499.39 509.38 519.57 529.96 540.56Peer to Peer Audio Transfer (MP3) 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32Peer to Peer Soft Transfer (exe) 58 60.90 63.95 67.14 70.50 74.02 77.73 81.61 85.69 89.98Email send Pics (Dig Photos) 30 33.00 36.30 39.93 43.92 48.32 53.15 58.46 64.31 70.74Large File (exe) aka Norton Antivirus 800 816.00 832.32 848.97 865.95 883.26 900.93 918.95 937.33 956.07Large File (Video) 2hr DVD 48000 48000 48000 48000 48000 52800 58080 63888 70277 77304
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Bandwidth Requirements (MAX) Streaming Apps Mbps Mbps Mbps Mbps Mbps Mbps Mbps Mbps Mbps MbpsGaming 0.50 0.70 0.98 1.37 1.92 2.69 3.76 5.27 7.38 10.33Peer to Peer Video 0.38 0.58 0.86 1.30 1.94 2.92 4.37 6.56 9.84 14.76Voice 0.064 0.064 0.064 0.064 0.064 0.064 0.064 0.064 0.064 0.064
Upload Time Max (sec) 200000.0 120000.0 72000.0 43200.0 25920.0 15552.0 9331.2 5598.7 3359.2 2015.5Avg Num of Computers/HH 1 1 1.5 1.5 1.75 2 2 3 3 3
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Digital Streams Qty Qty Qty Qty Qty Qty Qty Qty Qty Qty Internet Web Page Requests 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Peer to Peer Video Transfer (MPG2) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Peer to Peer Audio Transfer (MP3) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Peer to Peer Soft Transfer (exe) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Email send Pics (Dig Photos) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Large File (exe) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Large File (Video) 2hr DVD 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Digital Streams 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Gaming 0 0 0 0 0 0.25 0.35 0.45 0.55 0.65Peer to Peer Video 0 0 0 0 0 0.25 0.35 0.45 0.55 0.65Voice 1 1 1 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 0.5 0.55Max BW for Non_realtime (Mbps) 49400.2 49422.1 49444.8 49468.2 49502.2 54337.2 59653.4 65498.8 71926.3 78994.0Max BW for realtime (Mbps) 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.02 0.02 1.42 2.87 5.35 9.50 16.35
Source: CCS SPBD Modeling 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012File Size (MB) 6175 6178 6181 6184 6188 6792 7457 8187 8991 9874File Size (Mbps) 49400 49422 49445 49468 49502 54337 59653 65499 71926 78994Upstream Rate (Mbps) Power User 0.373 0.579 0.922 1.447 2.406 5.791 10.865 19.977 36.268 65.336Upstream Rate % Overhead 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25%Time to Upload (sec) 200000 120000 72000 43200 25920 15552 9331 5599 3359 2016Upstream Rate (Mbps) Average User 0.373 0.450 0.547 0.620 0.775 2.460 4.296 7.305 12.183 20.024
Application 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Internet Web Page Requests 0.54 0.35 0.22 0.14 0.08 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.00Peer to Peer Video Transfer (MPG2) 1288 829 520 332 203 86 47 26 15 8Peer to Peer Audio Transfer (MP3) 86 55 35 22 13 6 3 2 1 0Peer to Peer Soft Transfer (exe) 156 105 69 46 29 13 7 4 2 1Email send Pics (Dig Photos) 80.48 57.01 39.35 27.59 18.25 8.34 4.89 2.93 1.77 1.08Large File (exe) 2146 1410 902 587 360 153 83 46 26 15
49
Baseline Bandwidth Needs for the Residential Subscriber (Upstream Analysis)
• What Does it Mean?– Bandwidth is King…And will be used as a Competitive Weapon
MP3 Music FileFile Size (MB) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4File Size (Mbps) 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32Upstream Rate (Mbps) 0.256 0.384 0.768 1 2 4 8 16 40Upstream Rate % Overhead 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25%Upstream Rate (Mbps) Adj 0.192 0.288 0.576 0.75 1.5 3 6 12 30Time to Upload (sec) 166.67 111.11 55.56 42.67 21.33 10.67 5.33 2.67 1.07Time to Upload (Min) 2.78 1.85 0.93 0.71 0.36 0.18 0.09 0.04 0.02
Digital PhotosFile Size (MB) 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60File Size (Mbps) 480 480 480 480 480 480 480 480 480Upstream Rate (Mbps) 0.256 0.384 0.768 1 2 4 8 16 40Upstream Rate % Overhead 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25%Upstream Rate (Mbps) Adj 0.192 0.288 0.576 0.75 1.5 3 6 12 30Time to Upload (sec) 2500.00 1666.67 833.33 640.00 320.00 160.00 80.00 40.00 16.00Time to Upload (Min) 41.67 27.78 13.89 10.67 5.33 2.67 1.33 0.67 0.27
DSL
Cable FTTH
50
Baseline Bandwidth Needs for the Residential Subscriber (Upstream Analysis)
• What Does it Mean?– New Value-added Services are Enabled by High Upstream Bandwidth
Hard Drive Back-UP File Size (MB) 60000 60000 60000 60000 60000 60000 60000 60000 60000File Size (Mbps) 480000 480000 480000 480000 480000 480000 480000 480000 480000Upstream Rate (Mbps) 0.256 0.384 0.768 1 5 10 25 50 100Upstream Rate % Overhead 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25%Upstream Rate (Mbps) Adj 0.192 0.288 0.576 0.75 3.75 7.5 18.75 37.5 75Time to Upload (sec) 2500000 1666667 833333 640000 128000 64000 25600 12800 6400Time to Upload (Min) 41667 27778 13889 10667 2133 1067 427 213 107Time to Upload (Hrs) 694 463 231 178 36 18 7 4 2Time to Upload (Days) 29 19 10 7 1 1 0 0 0Source:CCS SPBD
To Back up a 60 GB hard drive, with a 1 Mbps
Upstream bandwidth would take 7 DAYS …You Need at least 50Mbps to offer this Service
DSL
Cable FTTH
51
Baseline Bandwidth Needs for the Residential Subscriber (Upstream Analysis)
Estimated Upstream Residential Bandwidth Requirements
0
20
40
60
80
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Mb
ps
Upstream Rate (Mbps) Pow er User
Upstream Rate (Mbps) Average User
Source: Corning Cable Systems
52
Technology Analysis (Upstream)
• HFC• ADSL & VDSL• PON
55
Estimated Upstream Residential Bandwidth Requirements
0
20
40
60
80
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Mb
ps
Upstream Rate (Mbps) Pow er User
Upstream Rate (Mbps) Average User
Source: Corning Cable Systems
CapabilitiesCATV HFC Network (Upstream Analysis)
DOCSIS 3.0 @ 50 HHP/Node
DOCSIS 2.0 @ 50 HHP/Node
DOCSIS 1.0 @ 500HHP/Node
56
Technology Analysis (Upstream)
• HFC• ADSL & VDSL• PON
59
Estimated Upstream Residential Bandwidth Requirements
0
20
40
60
80
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Mb
ps
Upstream Rate (Mbps) Pow er User
Upstream Rate (Mbps) Average User
Source: Corning Cable Systems
CapabilitiesADSL, ADSL2,Bonded ADSL2,ADSL2+,VDSL (Upstream Analysis)
• DSL– No Bonding
Note: 3000 ft Loops can support UpBW out to 2007 with VDSLNeed 500 ft Loops to support UpBW out to 2010 with VDSL5
VDSL5 @ 500Ft Loop
VDSL @ 1000Ft LoopVDSL @ 3000Ft
Loop
60
Technology Analysis (Upstream)
• HFC• ADSL & VDSL• PON
63
Estimated Upstream Residential Bandwidth Requirements
0
20
40
60
80
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Mb
ps
Upstream Rate (Mbps) Pow er User
Upstream Rate (Mbps) Average User
Source: Corning Cable Systems
CapabilitiesPON w IP Video (Upstream Analysis)
• PON– 1 x32 Splits
Note: PON…Build OncePlenty of UpBW for High Symmetrical Service
Note: Telco’s will Probably move to 2.4Gpon from BPON
BPON @ 1x32 Split
1.2Gbps GPON @ 1x32 Split
2.4Gbps GPON @ 1x32 Split
64
Technology Analysis (Summary)• Who Wins?
– Depends on “Who” you Compete With and “How” you Compete…Note: Service and Quality are “Table Stakes”
• Have Robust HDTV Offering…This willBe difficult with the current Platform
• High Speed Data…Need 10/2 (Dn/Up) Mbps by 2008• High Speed Data… Need 25/25 (Dn/Up) Mbps by 2010
• Telco w/FTTN Vs MSO
• Telco Needs to…
• Have Robust HDTV Offering• High Speed Data…Need 50/50 (Dn/Up) Mbps by 2008• High Speed Data… Need 100/100 (Dn/Up) Mbps by 2010
• Telco w/FTTP Vs MSO
• Telco Needs to…
The MSO can “EASILY” Match this with Little Investment
The MSO will have to Invest to Match
65
Technology Analysis
• HFC• ADSL & VDSL• PON• WiMax• BPL (Broadband Over Powerline)
66
CapabilitiesWiMax
• Line of Sight and Non-Line of Sight
This could be a Fiber
Link
This is typically a Fiber Link
67
CapabilitiesWiMax
This is Shared
BW
68
CapabilitiesWiMax• WiMax Network Requires an ALL DIGITAL Bit Stream
– Data,VoiP,VoD,STD TV, HDTV will need to be digital bit streams• So WiMax needs to supply 14Mbps today and 56Mbps tomorrow• WiMax can only achieve 1.2Mbps at very low penetration rates
Modem Speed CalculatorMax Dwn Rate DWN Rt 75 MbpsMax Up Rate Up Rt 75 MbpsHouseholds Passed per WiMax Ant (5 Mile Radius) HHP/Node 5000 NumberBroadband Penetration on Node BB Pen Rate 20% %% of modems on line at the same time Peak Hr Modem on-line 25% %% of modems on line at the same time rec Dwn Data Peak Hr Modem Dwn Data 25% %% of modems on line at the same time Tx Up Data Peak Hr Modem Up Data 25% %Max rate that could be provisioned and maintain SLA Max DWN Rate 1.2 MbpsMax rate that could be provisioned and maintain SLA Max Up Rate 1.2 Mbps
Source: CCS Strategic Planning Modeling
69
Technology Analysis
• HFC• ADSL & VDSL• PON• WiMax• BPL (Broadband Over Powerline)
70
CapabilitiesBPL
• BPL (Broadband Over Powerline)
Injects a low Frequency signal at the last Power Station before the house. Data rate at this point is 20-40Mbps
The distribution is a “bus” so the BW is Shared. The voltage is 3-12kv
At the house the Transformer at the pole has to be bypassed
Some use wireless at the pole, some will re-inject the signal onto the 240v drop
Connections to computers are made at any elec outlet
A 50MVA Sub can service approx 1200 homes
71
CapabilitiesBPL
72
CapabilitiesBPL
• BPL Network Requires an ALL DIGITAL Bit Stream– Data,VoiP,VoD,STD TV, HDTV will need to be digital bit streams
• BPL’s need to supply 14Mbps today and 56Mbps tomorrow• Most BPL networks can support about 500kbps to the subscriber
BPL Can NOT support Today OR Tomorrow BW requirements
Modem Speed CalculatorMax Dwn Rate DWN Rt 20 MbpsMax Up Rate Up Rt 20 MbpsHouseholds Passed per BPL Dist HHP/Node 1200 NumberBroadband Penetration on Node BB Pen Rate 50% %% of modems on line at the same time Peak Hr Modem on-line 25% %% of modems on line at the same time rec Dwn Data Peak Hr Modem Dwn Data 25% %% of modems on line at the same time Tx Up Data Peak Hr Modem Up Data 25% %Max rate that could be provisioned and maintain SLA Max DWN Rate 0.5 MbpsMax rate that could be provisioned and maintain SLA Max Up Rate 0.5 Mbps
Source: CCS Strategic Planning Modeling
What does all this Bandwidth Mean?The Future of Cable, DSL & FTTH (US)
74
“Universe” Total US Households
The Future of FTTH (US)
Total US Households
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
Mil
lio
ns
Total US HH
Total US HH (actual)
Source: Futures Technologies Inc, CCS SPBD
75
Cable Modem Adoption as a Percentage of US HH
The Future of FTTH (US)History can Predict the Future
US Cable Modem Penetration
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
US Cable Modem HH
US Cable Modem HH (actual)
b=.145
Note: b value is a measure of how fast a technology is adopted
Source: TIA, CCS SPBD
76
US DSL Penetration
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
US DSL Households
US DSL HH (actual)
DSL Adoption as a Percentage of US HH
The Future of FTTH (US)History can Predict the Future
b=.154
Note: b value is a measure of how fast a technology is adopted
Source: TIA, CCS SPBD
77
CM & DSL Adoption as a Percentage of US HH Without FTTH as a Substitution
The Future of FTTH (US)History can Predict the Future
Source: TIA, CCS SPBD
CM and DSL Penetration
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
CM Adoption
DSL Adoption
Total Penetration
78
US FTTH Penetration-HH Connected
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
US FTTH Con 125%
US FTTH Con 100%
US FTTH Con 75%
US FTTH Con 50%
US FTTH HH (actual)
FTTH Adoption as a Percentage of US HH (Four Futures) 50% Penetration = Vz + Inde + Munis 75% Penetration = Vz + Inde + Munis + ATT 100% Penetration = Vz + Inde + Munis + ATT + MSO 125% Penetration = Vz + Inde + Munis + ATT + MSO_Aggressive
The Future of FTTH (US)History can Predict the Future
b=.152
Source: RVA, CCS SPBD
79
CM_DSL Vs FTTH Lifecycle Curves
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
CM & DSL
FTTH Gz 50% Pene
FTTH Substitution for CM and DSL 50% Penetration = Vz + Inde + Munis 75% Penetration = Vz + Inde + Munis + ATT 100% Penetration = Vz + Inde + Munis + ATT + MSO 125% Penetration = Vz + Inde + Munis + ATT + MSO_Aggressive
The Future of FTTH (US)History can Predict the Future
Source: RVA, CCS SPBD
CM_DSL Vs FTTH Lifecycle Curves
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
CM & DSL
FTTH Gz 75% Pene
CM_DSL Vs FTTH Lifecycle Curves
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
CM & DSL
FTTH Gz 100% Pene
CM_DSL Vs FTTH Lifecycle Curves
0%20%40%
60%80%
100%CM & DSL
FTTH GZ 125% Pene
What is going on with FTTH?The Competition (US)
81
What is going on with FTTH (US)The Competition
82
What is going on with FTTH (US)The Competition
83
What is going on with FTTH (US)The Competition
84
What is going on with FTTH (US)The Competition
85
What is going on with FTTH (US)The Competition
86
What is going on with FTTH (US)The Competition
87
What is going on with FTTH (US)The Competition
Thank you