Competence foresight in local government...

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Competence foresight in local government services Final report Competence foresight

Transcript of Competence foresight in local government...

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Competence foresight in local governmentservices

Final report

Competence foresight

ISBN 978-952-293-154-2 (print) ISBN 978-952-293-155-9 (online)

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Sirpa Sivonen & Laura Pouru (Ed.)

Competence foresight in local government servicesFinal report

KT Local government employers Helsinki 2014

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Competence foresight in local government services project

The Competence foresight in local government services project was funded by:

This publication was edited bySirpa Sivonen and Laura Pouru

1st editionISBN 978-952-293-154-2 (print) ISBN 978-952-293-155-9 (online)© Suomen Kuntaliitto

English translation: Delingua Language Service Ltd

Layout:Kalle Pelkonen / Mainostoimisto Soihtu Ltd

Printed:Kuntaliitto Palvelut Ltd

KT Local government employersToinen linja 14FI-00530 Helsinki, Finlandtel. +358 (0)9 7711www.kt.fi

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Competence foresight in local government services project

Abstract The Competence foresight in local government services project carried out by KT Local government employers developed competence foresight frameworks and practices for the local government sector. The objective was to strengthen the role of competence foresight in the local government sector and to produce long-term foresight data regarding competence needs in the local government sector.The project approached the issue of foresight into competence needs from an open perspective, without commitment to existing professional, sectoral or academic degree structures.

Frameworks for competence foresight were developed in four regional pilots. The Central Finland pilot developed a regional foresight framework for Central Finland and practices for foresight-based human resource planning for the City of Jyväskylä and the Central Finland Health Care District. The Northern Finland pilot developed competence foresight practices for the identification of new competences required by the support service personnel of educational organisations, and created a rolling competence foresight process. The Päijät-Häme pilot focused on the integration of competence foresight into customer-focused service design in the social and health service sector. In the Capital Region pilot, the City of Helsinki developed competence foresight as part of its strategy work and used future mapping as a foresight tool. The City of Vantaa and Metropolia University of Applied Sciences developed a co-operation framework for deepening co-operation between the city and the university of applied sciences in developing the study programmes of students in social and health care services to better correspond with the needs of working life.

As future competence needs in the local government sector, the project particularly highlighted competence needs related to diversifying service processes, the renewal of management and the development of service culture. The field of diversifying service processes requires strong economic and legal competence as well as competence in the area of procurement and contracts, managing vast systems, understanding one’s own role in the overall picture and networks, and interface working skills. Management renewal requires managers and supervisors to be capable of coaching, motivating and having a management style which promotes a sense of community. They require a strong future orientation and visionary leadership, network competence and the ability to transcend boundaries, as well as delivering business expertise and internationality. The focus in the development of service culture is on developing customer focus; a personal service attitude and including customers in service planning and implementation, recognising one’s own role in the system, taking responsi-bility for the overall service received by the customer, as well as friendly customer service both online and in person.

The Competence foresight in local government services project was funded by the Finnish National Board of Education with support from the European Social Fund. Other funding providers and expert partners included KT Local government employers, the Association of Finnish Local and Regional Authorities, the Employers’ Association for Service Enterprises and Keva. Further expert partners also included the Finnish Association for the Development of Vocational Education and Training AMKE, as well as the Rectors’ Conference of Finnish Universities of Applied Sciences ARENE. The project ran from 1 March 2011 to 28 February 2014.

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1. Introduction.................................................................................................................... ....... 61.1 Project objectives .................................................................................................................61.2 Project background ..............................................................................................................81.3 The purpose and structure of this report .........................................................................9

2. Competence foresight as part of management .................................................................... 102.1 Definitions related to competence foresight .................................................................102.2 Competence foresight as part of strategic planning ....................................................112.3 Competence management and foresight used as tools for change ..........................12

3. The current state of competence foresight in the local government sector ........................... 153.1 The current state and challenges for competence foresight .......................................153.1.1 Collecting foresight data ...................................................................................................153.1.2 Identification of the competence needs necessary for the implementation of municipal strategy .........................................................................................................173.1.3 Key challenges to foresight ..............................................................................................183.2 Examples of past foresight into competence needs ....................................................193.2.1 Changes in local government sector labour and competence needs in Lapland ......193.2.2 SOTE-ennakointi (Foresight in social and health services) ...........................................203.2.3 Osaava lähihoitaja 2020 (Professionally competent practical nurse 2020) .............21

3.2.4 Oivallus project (Competence needs of learning networks in tomorrow’s Finland) .............................21 4. Competence foresight frameworks in the project pilots ....................................................... 23

4.1 Central Finland: New competence needs created by changes in local government and service structures ....................................................................234.1.1 A regional foresight framework .......................................................................................234.1.2 Competence foresight as part of human resource planning .......................................254.2 Northern Finland: Competence foresight pertaining to support service personnel in educational organisations .........................................274.3 Päijät-Häme: Competence foresight in welfare services..............................................304.4 Capital Region: Competence management as part of the strategy work of publicly funded organisations ......................................................................................314.4.1 City of Helsinki future mapping technique .....................................................................31

4.4.2 Framework for co-operation between the City of Vantaa and Metropolia University of Applied Sciences .............................................................36 5. A generic competence foresight framework ......................................................................... 39

5.1 Competence foresight process framework ....................................................................395.2 Competence foresight as part of strategic planning ....................................................425.3 On the practical implementation of the foresight process ..........................................435.4 Choosing foresight methods ............................................................................................45

6. Responding to changing competence needs ......................................................................... 46

6.1 Developing the competence of personnel .....................................................................466.2 Educational planning ..........................................................................................................476.2.1 Quantitative foresight of education needs ....................................................................476.2.2 Foresight into qualitative competence needs ................................................................476.3 Educational organisations as utilisers of information on competence needs ..........48

7. Future competence needs in the local government sector .................................................... 50

7.1 Diversifying service processes .........................................................................................507.2 Reshaping management ...................................................................................................517.3 Customer-focused service culture ...................................................................................527.4 Towards the local government services of the future ..................................................53

8. Conclusions ..........................................................................................................................55

CONTENTS

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Bibliography ..............................................................................................................................................59

Appendices........................................................................................................................................................60Appendix 1. Competence foresight in local government services project steering group members 1 March 2011 – 28 February 2014 ...........................................................................................................60Appendix 2. Competence foresight in local government services project pilot parties ..........................................63 Appendix 3. Competence needs identified in the project ...........................................................................................64

FiguresFigure 1. Regional pilot parties and themes ......................................................................................................................Figure 2. Classification of future scenarios: potential, plausible, probable ...................................................................Figure 3. Competence foresight in strategic decision-making ........................................................................................Figure 4. The generic foresight process and its interfaces with strategy work ............................................................Figure 5. The relationship between competence and organisational performance .....................................................Figure 6. Competence management framework ............................................................................................................... Figure 7. Foresight data currently collected by local governments ................................................................................Figure 8. Identification by local governments of the competence development needs necessary for the implementation of municipal strategy .................................................................................................. Figure 9. Major obstacles to competence foresight in municipalities ............................................................................Figure 10. Annual calendar for regional foresight .............................................................................................................Figure 11. A foresight-based approach to work ................................................................................................................Figure 12. Frame of reference for competence foresight ................................................................................................Figure 13. Rolling competence foresight process .............................................................................................................Figure 14. Objectives of foresight and service design .....................................................................................................Figure 15. Interfaces between foresight, competence foresight and service design processes ..............................Figure 16. Foresight process in City of Helsinki departments and public utilities ........................................................Figure 17. Competence foresight stakeholders ................................................................................................................Figure 18. The phases of the future mapping technique .................................................................................................Figure 19. Phase 1: Analysis of the operating environment ...........................................................................................Figure 20. Phases 2, 3 and 4: change maps A, B and C ..................................................................................................Figure 21. Working life related learning experiences ........................................................................................................Figure 22. Study and career path model ............................................................................................................................Figure 23. Annual calendar for planning by an educational institution ..........................................................................Figure 24. Competence foresight in educational co-operation .......................................................................................Figure 25. Competence foresight process framework .....................................................................................................Figure 26. Competence foresight produces data for decision-making ..........................................................................Figure 27. A framework for evaluating the effectiveness of competence foresight ...................................................Figure 28. Foresight methods categorised by their attributes .......................................................................................

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1. Introduction 1. 1 Project objectives

Competence foresight in local government services is a project coordinated by KT Local government employers to develop competence foresight practices in order to support competence management and development in a period of change in the local government sector. The project is based on an open approach that is not bound to existing professional or academic degree structures, which allows it to cover genuinely new types of future competences and competence needs. The project was funded by the Finnish National Board of Education with support from the European Social Fund (ESF). In addition, funding providers and expert partners included KT Local government employers, the Association of Finnish Local and Regional Authorities, the Employers’ Association for Service Enterprises and Keva. Other partners included the Finnish Association for the Development of Vocational Education and Training AMKE, as well as the Rectors’ Conference of Finnish Universities of Applied Sciences ARENE. The project ran from 1 March 2011 to 28 February 2014.

The general objective of the project was to develop and document competence foresight practices that are suitable to local governments, and to develop frameworks for the integration of competence foresight into planning processes. A further objective was to summarise the foresight data on competence needs in the local government sector created under the framework of the project. The more detailed objectives were as follows:

Develop and pilot in regional networks a competence foresight framework or frameworks that can be utilised in municipal and regional strategic decision-making and human resource management, as well as in planning concerning the content of education.

Produce long-term foresight data on the competences needed in local government services for use by education providers and for education planning.

Create network-based frameworks for foresight into competence needs to meet local and regional requirements. Develop regional operating models in four pilots.

The primary target groups of the project include local governments and joint municipal authorities, as well as municipally owned companies and organisations, education providers and regional councils. The parties that constitute the target group are connected by their involvement in making strategic decisions in their areas of activity, such as local government sector human resource policy, regional foresight and the planning and implementation of education. The project’s indirect target groups and stakeholders include Finnish government ministries and other state administrative organisations, education and training committees, the Government Foresight Network, research and development organisations, labour market organisations and other foresight projects.

The project was carried out on three levels: At the organisational level, the project developed competence foresight frameworks to serve human resource management and planning in local government organisations. At the regional level, local government sector competence needs were linked with regional foresight activities and regional educational planning. At the national level, long-term foresight data on competence needs in the local government sector was produced.

Frameworks for competence foresight were developed in four regional pilot schemes: the Capital Region, Päijät-Häme, Central Finland and Northern Finland. In addition, the cities of Kaarina and Paimio in Southwest Finland were included as satellite partners in the Päijät-Häme pilot. The needs of the pilot organisations were used as the starting point for the foresight practices developed in the pilot projects. In total, 15 local govern-ment sector organisations were involved in the project (Figure 1).

1. 2. 3.

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Region Pilot partners

Central FinlandRegional Council of Central Finland, City of Jyväskylä, Central Finland Health Care District Northern FinlandKemi-Tornionlaakso Municipal Education and Training Consortium Lappia, Oulu Region Joint Authority for Education, Regional Council of Lapland Päijät-HämeLahti Region Educational Consortium, Joint Municipal Authority for Social and Health Services in Päijät-Häme, Päijät-Häme Regional Foresight Network,Hollola Municipality, City of Kaarina, City of Paimio Capital RegionCity of Helsinki, City of Vantaa, Metropolia University of Applied Sciences

The project personnel at KT Local government employers were Raija Keuro from 1 March 2011 to 13 March 2012 and Sirpa Sivonen from 21 March 2012 to 28 February 2014, and as project coordinator, Leena Lehtinen from 1 March 2011 to 31 March 2013 and Laura Pouru from 2 April 2013 to 28 February 2014. The project’s expert consultants were Kaisa Lähteenmäki-Smith, Kalle A. Piirainen and Lassi Köppä from Ramboll Management Consulting Oy. The chairperson of the project steering group was Lena Siikaniemi from the Lahti Region Educational Consortium, with Hannu Korhonen from the Regional Council of Central Finland as the deputy chairperson. The steering group in its entirety is presented in Appendix 1, and the key pilot partners in Appendix 2.

Competence foresight perspective

New competence needs created by changes in local government and service structures Competence foresight pertaining to support service personnel in educational organisations Competence foresight in welfare services Competence management as part of the strategy work of publicly funded organisations

Figure 1. Regional pilot parties and themes

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1.2 Project background In the coming years and decades, local government sector services will face significant challenges as large groups of their personnel reach retirement age. The challenge of renewing local government services is also the challenge of renewing the workforce: how to ensure the availability of competent personnel when more than half of the current workforce retires. Estimates indicate that, between 2012 and 2030, some 292,000 people will retire from local government service, which corresponds to 57.9% of the current local government sector workforce1. The number of local government employees approaching retirement varies substantially by region, position and sector. According to a forecast by Keva, the region with the highest percentage of employees nearing retirement is Lapland, while the sector with the highest figure is the technical sector2. Foresight-based development of job descriptions and duties is one of the key instruments for responding to the challenge posed by retiring employees. In addition to the high rate of retirement, the local government sector also faces other major challenges in the coming decades. The ageing of the population will result in substantial changes to service needs. The renewal of local government legislation and changes in municipal and service structures are rearranging the entire field of local government administration. New group structures and organisational frameworks, as well as the diversification in solutions for service production are also influencing future competence needs. The underlying factors behind these challenges include economic constraints, declining resources and cost pressures3, while the cost of labour and quality requirements increase4, all of which give rise to needs for increased economic efficiency. Furthermore, changes in working life, the renewal of working culture and the goals related to the promotion of well-being at work and the extension of careers are also affecting the competence needs of local government services and increasing the need for competence foresight in municipalities. Intensifying competition for competent workers and the consolidation of the population in growth centres are forcing local goverments to define in greater detail the competences they need. Various competence needs have been analysed in Finland in several projects and reports over the past twenty years. In particular, several competence foresight projects have been carried out with ESF funding. However, the Competence foresight in local government services project is the first to examine competence needs as a whole specifically from the perspective of the local government sector. Foresight into competence needs in major local government branches, such as social and health services and education, has been discussed from the perspective of the branches in question in several branch-specific reports. The starting point for the Competence foresight in local government services project was analysing competence needs in the the local government sector from a broader perspective than that of individual professions and branches of activity. The project was not restricted in advance to specific professions, academic degrees or even branches of activity, as the objective was instead to approach competence needs from a future perspective that transcends structural boundaries.

1 Local Government Pensions Institution (Keva) 2012 2 Halmeenmäki 2009 3 See e.g. Hanhela & Laesterä 2012 4 See e.g. Korkman 2011; Soininvaara 2009

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1.3 The purpose and structure of this report

The two key objectives of the Competence foresight in local government services project were to strengthen foresight competence in local government organisations and to highlight future competence needs in the local government sector. In the project, the terms local government sector and local government services refer to municipalities and joint municipal authorities as well as the companies, public utilities and organisations under their control, and the services produced by them. From the perspective of competence needs in the local government sector, the need for foresight extends not only to the competence needs concerning their own personnel, but also those pertaining to outsourced services. In other words, as service organisers local governments also require competence from service producers, which calls for the specification of the necessary competences. The changing competence needs in management and administration are also key aspects of the project. The special characteristics related to management in the local government sector include political decision-making, activities being prescribed by law, and local government services being tied to a foundation of values in which the production of welfare services and serving municipal residents are of central importance. Management in the local government sector and municipal groups increasingly involves managing processes, operating concepts and value chains at the interfaces of the local government organisation and its various co-operation partners, which presents new and different challenges to management competence compared to traditional local government organisations.

This report summarises the results of the development work carried out under the Competence foresight in local government services project and presents competence foresight frameworks that can be applied in municipal, regional and other network-type foresight projects. This report represents the views of the project parties and authors, based on the work carried out under the project. This report does not represent the official view of KT Local government employers, the project’s funding providers or partners. The statements and proposals presented in this report are not commitments made by the parties implementing the project, the funding providers or other partners. Chapter 2 of the report discusses the terminology related to competence foresight and the role of competence foresight in organisations based on theoretical literature. The chapter is based on a theoretical review by expert consultant Kalle A. Piirtainen. Chapter 3 covers the current state of competence foresight in the local government sector and discusses the results of a number of local government sector competence foresight projects based on a summary prepared by Project Coordinator Leena Lehtinen. Chapter 4 presents the foresight practices created as a result of the development efforts undertaken by the project’s pilot partners. The chapter is based on the work done by the pilot representatives and the pilot reports produced on them. Chapter 5 presents a generalised competence foresight framework drafted by Kalle A. Piirainen, which is based on the foresight frameworks from the pilots and competence foresight theory. Chapter 6 discusses competence development and educational planning as instruments for responding to new competence needs. Chapter 7 summarises the local government sector competence needs highlighted in the project based on the competence needs report produced in the project. Chapter 8 is the final chapter of the report.

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2. Competence foresight as part of management 2.1 Definitions related to competence foresight

Foresight is a systematic, participatory, future-intelligence-gathering and medium-to-long-term vision-building process aimed at present-day decisions and mobilising joint actions5. Foresight is a form of knowledge management in which the organisation’s existing data pertaining to the future is organised, resulting in outlines of alternative future scenarios. The objective of foresight is to outline and understand future possibilities. The key is to understand what, from the organisation’s perspective, are the key variables that affect the future. One of the most important outcomes of the foresight process is understanding what variables can and should be influenced6. Competence foresight refers to foresight pertaining to the future competence needs of the organisation. In practice, this means analysing the future with respect to what competence needs will arise, and preparing for these needs through a variety of means including education, learning on the job and recruitment. When engaging in foresight regarding future competence needs, the organisation should ask itself three questions: what competence is its current activity based on, in which markets does it want to operate in the future, and what competences does operating in the said markets require7? The following figure (Figure 2) illustrates how the future is drawn in our minds as an image of a forthcoming state of the world. Naturally, the thinking is focused on the most probable of the potential future scenarios, in which things are largely the same as they are now, with the exception of generally known changes and changes that follow directly from current general data. The objective of foresight is therefore to encourage out of the box thinking: in addition to analysing what is already known, it encourages an assessment of what else could happen based on what is known about the world. This is an effort to define boundaries for potentialities of what could happen in the future as a consequence of the various change processes that are underway. In an even broader sense, plausible, probable and preferable futures may also be differentiated in foresight processes8.

5 European Commission 20026 Siikaniemi, Saikkonen & Härkönen 2010, adapted from Aaltonen & Wilenius 20027 Siikaniemi, Saikkonen & Härkönen 2010, adapted from Aaltonen & Wilenius 20028 Voros 2003

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2.2 Competence foresight as part of strategic planning

Figure 3. Competence foresight in strategic decision-making 11

Currentinformation on the operating environment

Monitoring, foresight Competence foresight and competence management

Current information on competence and resources

Good decision:Linked to goals and objectives,

consistent

Insight,

experience,

logic

Stategic and visionary thinking

Goals andobjectives

Range of imaginable/possible

Figure 2. Classification of future scenarios: potential, plausible, probable 9

Tu(1

Tu

Tulevaisuus(3)

Plausible

Future(1)

Pesent

Future(2)

Future(3)

Future(4)

Competence foresight is closely linked to the organisation’s strategic decision-making (Figure 3). The relation-ship between foresight and strategy work can be described as follows: strategic thinking is broad-based thin-king pertaining to the organisation’s objectives and future. Strategic planning is more concrete analytical work, in which a given future objective is dissected and actions are planned to achieve this objective. The role of foresight is to extend the foundation for strategic thinking and planning, as foresight aims to provide broader answers to “what if” questions10.

9 Adapted from Piirainen 200810 Voros 2003; Aaltonen & Wilenius 200211 Aaltonen & Wilenius 2002

Range of possible

Probable

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Figure 4. The generic foresight process and its interfaces with strategy work13

Stra

tegi

c co

ntex

t

Foresight as a process is often understood narrowly as simply analysing inputs and sketching future scenarios using certain methods. However, from the perspective of achieving effective foresight, it is essential that it is normalised as part of the planning process, which allows foresight to serve organisational development to its full capacity (Figure 4). This is of fundamental importance, because producing foresight data in itself does not guide operations on an organisation-wide basis. Interpreting the foresight message requires active leadership. A second perspective on foresight is that, in addition to producing data regarding the future, the foresight process is also a learning process for its participants, adapting their thinking and perspectives on the world and the future. This is because the foresight process includes gathering inputs regarding changes in the operating environment, filtering and interpreting these inputs, as well as an interactive social process that involves discussion of observations, views and their meanings12.

2.3. Competence management and foresight used as tools for change

According to recent management literature, the source of an organisation’s long-term success is ultimately its resources and competence, as well as the ability to update these resources through learning14. Competence is manifested as the ability to do things and to utilise the organisation’s physical resources in the production of products and services (Figure 5). Competence is tied to human knowledge, personal contacts, experience and skills, but also work routines, methods, best practices and processes15.

12 Kivijärvi, Piirainen & Tuominen 201113 Adapted from Voros 200314 Teece, Pisano & Shuen 1997; Viitala 200515 Otala & Aura 2005; Winter & Szulanski 2000

Inputs Analysis Interpretation Prospection Outputs Strategy

Trends, cross-impact,analyses, systems thinking

Skenarios, visioning,backcasting etc.

Reports,presentations,workshops and

workbooks

Strategy developmentand strategic

planning,organisational

objectives and metricsSurveys, the organisation’smonitoring material,

seminars, scanning weaksignals etc.

Questionformulation

Enviromentalscanning Foresight

Expandedunderstanding

of opportunities

Developmentof strategy based

on the newunderstanding

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Customerreaction

Competitor

reaction

Informationprotection

Feedback based on customer reaction

Internal resources

Networks

Capacities Productsand services

Performance,productivity

Ability to learn/Absorptive

capacity

Management skills/strategy

implementation,prosesses,

methods and routines

Relative levelof competence

Figure 5. The relationship between competence and organisational performance16

Competence management covers the management actions taken to maintain, develop, renew and obtain the competence required to carry out the organisation’s mission and strategy17. It can also be said that an organisation that fails to develop its competences is a prisoner of its existing resources and will not be able to effectively perform tasks other than those that are at the core of its current competences18. Competence management is based on the organisation’s objectives and tasks, based on which existing core competences and future needs can be identified. There may be a disparity between existing competences and future needs, which can involve a skill shortage or competences that will not be needed in the future. The identification of skill shortages and competences to be discarded can be used as the basis of employing competence development measures such as supplementary training and retraining, job rotation and recruitment. Competence management and development are closely linked to the strategic development of the organisation (Figure 6).

16 Kortelainen 201117 Viitala 200518 Path dependency, see e.g. Cohen & Levinthal 199019 Competence foresight in local government services – Capital Region pilot report 2013

Organisational foresight

Changes in the operating environment and the city’s strategic policies

Core competnces Strategic competences

Municipal competences, sectoral competences and occupational competences

Competence to be discarded

Competence to bedeveloped

Newcompetence

VISION

Figure 6. Competence management framework19

Current competence

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While competence management is often discussed at the group level from the perspective of strategic management, it is important to recognise that day-to-day management is ultimately responsible for its implementation. Practical human resource management and planning, operational line management in addition to planning and the managing employee performance play a key role in the implementation of competence management. In fact, the questions pertaining to organisational and human learning, competence management and human resource development are largely related to routine day-to-day operational management decisions and practices pertaining to matters such as the definition of employees’ job tasks, the planning of competence development and training, resource allocation, as well as the instructions provided by the human resource management function20. Supplementary training, competence rotation within the organisation and recruitment policy are examples of measures that serve competence development. However, competence development measures take time and require a degree of preparation for change. The preparation for change can happen through a) developing flexibility and the capacity to learn, b) foresight, or c) a combination of the two. The flexibility-based reactive approach to preparation means reacting to changes as they happen. The underlying assumption is that there are periods of “normal” operations between changes, and changes are seen as abnormal periods of operation. In the reactive approach, changes may even be actively resisted. When change occurs, organisational proceses, human flexibility and the capacity to learn new tasks quickly are utilised. These tools are used to adapt to more or less surprising changes in external control or other aspects of the operating environment21. The foresight-based proactive method of preparation, on the other hand, is based on actively anticipating changes in the operating environment and the subsequent changes that will occur in competence needs. This also involves striving to develop the organisation’s operations in advance, before such a development is forced upon the organisation by external factors. The assumption is that operating conditions and the environment will change in any case, and the way to prepare for these changes is through continuous development. The foresight-based method of preparation gives the organisation time to react, as active probing of the future is used to achieve awareness of ongoing changes, opportunities and threats as well as the competence needs resulting from them22.

20 E.g. Viitala 200721 E.g. Aaltonen & Wilenius 200222 E.g. Aaltonen & Wilenius 2002

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3. The current state of competence foresight in the local government sector

23 Competence foresight in local government services – results of the competence needs survey and expert seminar 2012

3.1 The current state and challenges for competence foresight As part of the Competence foresight in local government services project, the current state of competence foresight in municipalities was surveyed in autumn 2012 by Ramboll Management Consulting Oy (RMC). RMC Oy conducted an open online survey on the subject for local government sector operators23. A total of 394 responses were received, of which 120 were complete and 274 were partial. The majority of the respondents were municipal employees. The next-largest group comprised employees of various types of educational organisations. Other respondents represented joint municipal authorities, regional development organisations, joint municipal authorities for health care, municipal economic development companies, public utilities under joint municipal authorities, and centres of excellence in the field of social services. The following subsections present some of the key questions of the survey and the responses to them.

3.1.1 Collecting foresight data The survey indicates that the subjects on which local government organisations collect the most foresight data include identifying the needs of business and economic activity and responding to these needs, the pro-motion of well-being, the attractiveness of the municipality, future service needs and the availability of skilled labour (Figure 7). The uniform distribution between the responses was partially the result of the manner in which the question was posed: each respondent could select the three types of foresight data that is collected the most in his or her municipality. The uniform distribution is also likely to indicate that local government organisations currently collect foresight data in many different forms and on many different themes.

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0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Attractiveness of the municipality

Labor market effectiveness

Citizen participation

Future service needs

Future working life and its needs

The views of municipal residents

Other theme - what?

Cannot say

Identifying the needs of business and industry and responding to

Strengthening existing competence

Developing new and necessary competence

Availability of skilled labor

Promotion of well-being

12%

9%

8%

11%

12%

12%

2%

7%

11%

5%

7%

0%

3%

Figure 7. Foresight data currently collected by local governments

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3.1.2 Identification of the competence needs necessary for the implementation of municipal strategy

Figure 8. Identification by local governments of the competence development needs necessary for the implementation of municipal strategy

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

2%

18%

54%

17%

2%

8%

1 = very poorly

2 = quite poorly

3 = moderately

4 = quite well

5 = very well

cannot say

Responses to the question “On a scale of 1–5, assess to what extent your municipality has identified the competence needs necessary for the implementation of municipal strategy” indicate that, at present, competence foresight supports the implementation of municipal strategy in the respondents’ municipalities only to a fair or satisfactory degree (Figure 8).

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Figure 9. Major obstacles to competence foresight in municipalities

3.1.3 Key challenges to foresight According to the survey, the key challenges to the implementation of foresight are related to general challen-ges to management in the local government sector, such as organisation (of foresight), the division of respon-sibilities, leadership, a sector-based approach and different operating cultures (Figure 9). The uniform distributi-on of the responses suggests that the obstacles to foresight are perceived as being highly diverse.

Unwillingness to utilise foresight data

Lack of competence

Weak leadership

Unclear division of responsibilities

Different operating cultures between organisations

Foresight being disorganised

Lack of trust between different municipal actors

Excessive sectoral orientation

Problems related to the flow of information

Information systems are unsuitable

Availability of foresight data

Lack of interaction between municipal residents and office holders

Political decision-making

Other, please specify?

Cannot say

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

10%

11%

15%

2%

7%

1%

4%

7%

7%

2%

10%

4%

6%

6%

10%

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3.2 Examples of past foresight into competence needs This subsection presents examples of previously produced reports on competence needs that concern the local government sector either directly or indirectly. The competence needs described in these reports support the competence needs outlined in The Competence foresight in local government services project. They also provide examples of how foresight into local government sector competence needs can be approached from the perspective of different professions, branches of activity or regions.

The report Changes in local government sector labour and competence needs in Lapland discusses general local government sector competence needs at the regional level. SOTE-ennakointi (Foresight in social and health services) is an extensive industry-specific foresight project that analyses the competence needs in social and health services as well as early education. The report Osaava lähihoitaja 2020 (Professionally competent practical nurse 2020) is an example of profession-specific foresight into competence needs to analyse changes that will affect the future competence needs of practical nurses. The Oivallus project (Competence needs of learning networks in tomorrow’s Finland) coordinated by the Confederation of Finnish Industries describes future competence needs specifically from the perspective of industry, but the competence needs are largely consistent with those of the the local government sector.

3.2.1 Changes in local government sector labour and competence needs in Lapland The region of Lapland carried out a survey in 2012 to produce information on local government sector labour and competence needs from the present to 2015. The report was commissioned by the KOTTI project, which is funded by the Lapland Centre for Economic Development, Transport and the Environment (Lapland ELY Centre) and the European Social Fund (ESF) and implemented by FCG Koulutus and Konsultointi Oy. The report Changes in local government sector labour and competence needs in Lapland24 states that, according to a survey carried out in municipalities and joint municipal authorities in Lapland, changes in local government services will affect the competence and training needs of existing personnel in ways that include the widening of their work duties, as well as changing and increasing competence requirements. According to the survey carried out in municipalities and joint municipal authorities in Lapland, changes in competence needs apply particularly to the following areas: 1. Taking customer focus and the customer’s right of self-determination into consideration 2. The ability of day-care workers and assistants to respond to the needs of children requiring special care and education 3. More extensive skills related to information systems and hospital technology 4. Improving and maintaining the technological skills of teachers and the capacity to provide online education 5. Developing the competence of nurses that have an independent expert practice The perceived general competence needs in municipalities and joint municipal authorities in Lapland are: 1. Interaction skills 2. Customer focus 3. Adaptability 4. Networking skills 5. Language skills 6. Social competence 7. Skills related to management and change management

In addition, the survey responses from municipalities and joint municipal authorities in Lapland highlighted a concern regarding the deterioration of local government sector competence, such as competence related to municipal administration and economy, in several professions as well as the deterioration of competence rela-ted to office work in municipal administration. The respondents expressed a desire to see competences related to the legislation regulating local government sector work and administration strengthened through training.

24 Miettinen, Antman, Jalava & Palmunen 2012

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3.2.2 SOTE-ennakointi (Foresight in social and health services) In 2008–2011, the South Karelia Municipal Education Consortium carried out an extensive ESF-funded foresight project concerning competence needs in the area of social and health services25. The purpose of the research project was to determine future competence needs in social and health services as well as early education to facilitate the revision of curricula and to produce information for the development of working life. A further objective of the project was to develop a competence needs foresight framework in the form of a process description for educational organisations. The framework includes foresight into competence and education needs. The SOTE foresight project reports describe extensively, and in detail, the basic competence needs in the area of social and health services and early education, as well as special competence needs related to relevant professions. Some of the findings related to new occupational groups and competences are listed below: 1. The need for assistance-oriented nursing occupations will increase. They will facilitate improvements in cost-effectiveness, the division of responsibilities and the adequacy of nursing staff. 2. In nursing care for the elderly, service coordinators and persons assisting the elderly at home with routine affairs 3. Support persons and family workers for immigrant families 4. Understanding and managing processes 5. IT and technological competence: software, tools, new technological solutions 6. Competence related to interpreting: training for interpreting to ensure that personnel know how to use an interpreter and technology-assisted interpretation methods (such as video remote interpreting) 7. Competence related to multiculturalism and immigration

The interim report describes general working life capacities based on changes related to the operating environment, customer relationships and the division of responsibilities:

1. Managing multidisciplinarism and teamwork and the various related forms of collaboration in the servicesystem, including the networks in which activities take place 2. Network competence: within the organisation, with the external network, and in the customer’s own local network 3. Understanding of entrepreneurship and operating in the private sector (which would be promoted by mandatory job training in the private sector as well as study modules or assignments related to entrepreneurship and the private sector) 4. Innovation competence: the visionary and innovative planning and development of operations and the assessment and improvement of quality 5. Adapting to changes and willingness to change 6. Developing one’s own professional skills and the industry 7. Customer competences: interaction skills, interpersonal skills, multiculturalism, the ability to listen and draw conclusions 8. Professional decision-making skills 9. Management competence and, as new challenges in this area, change management, managing cost-effectiveness and human resource management 10. Skills related to the manager-subordinate relationship 11. Competence related to multiculturalism 12. Respectful attitude and education on values with respect to customers and the working community As part of the SOTE foresight project, the Hospital District of Southwest Finland and Turku University of Applied Sciences collaborated on the Future special competences in specialised health care foresight project. The project’s final report26 includes competence foresight findings related to areas of specialised health care and support services including joint on-call services, cardiac disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, gastroenterology and neurology, as well as future competences for bioanalysts and radiologists.

25 Vesterinen 2009; Vesterinen 2011 26 Nurminen 2011

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3.2.3 Osaava lähihoitaja 2020 (Professionally competent practical nurse 2020) In 2008, the Finnish Ministry of Education initiated strategy work on the development of basic vocational degree education in social and health services, which was carried out by Tampere Vocational College and Oulu Vocational College. The results are presented in the report Osaava lähihoitaja 2020 (Professionally competent practical nurse 2020)27. The report identified the following as the key change factors in social and health services: 1. Practical nurse education must increasingly emphasise the promotion of health and well-being 2. The practical nurse’s operating environment is changing with respect to the service structure and the method of service production: knowledge of the service network in its entirety is a key competence for practical nurses. In addition, work performed at customers’ homes requires multidisciplinary teamwork as well as skills related to autonomous work and decision-making. 3. The most significant changes with respect to customers include the ageing of the population, service users having been diagnosed with multiple conditions, and the diversity of psychosocial problems 4. Multiculturalisation of society 5. Communicating with customers using information and communications technology and the advancement of technology related to tools and equipment used 6. Transfer of duties from nurses to practical nurses, which will change the job descriptions of practical nurses. The change will lead to pressure to recruit people with less extensive degree qualifications for assistive duties. In the report, the competences of practical nurses are divided into broad and specialised competences. The content of competence needs is found to vary by operating environment. With regard to specialised health care, the report finds that practical nurses are required to have strong clinical skills, but there is no general and consistent definition of specialised health care competence for practical nurses. The practical nurse’s need for specialised competences is determined by the customer needs in different operating environments and, according to the report, cannot be classified into competence needs in the areas of social services, rehabilitation, basic health care and specialised health care. This being the case, the report classifies practical nurse competences from the perspective of the following areas: 1) professional development and learning, 2) occupational ethics, 3) occupational interaction, 4) nursing, care and education work that promotes ecologically, socially, culturally and economically sustainable development.

3.2.4 Oivallus project (Competence needs of learning networks in tomorrow’s Finland) Oivallus was a three-year (2008–2011) project coordinated by the Confederation of Finnish Industries to examine the future competence needs of business life28. The project’s working hypothesis was that, in the 2020s, business life will be even more highly networked than it is now. The project sought to answer questions such as what kinds of competences will be required for work that is done in networks, what will future professionals be like, and what kind of education will prepare people for work in the 2020s. In the Oivallus project, information on competence needs was collected through open foresight workshops, expert interviews and targeted international study visits. The project highlighted the following as key competence needs of the future:

1. Network skills. The ability to identify the right people and groups from the perspective of one’s own position and business activity. Network skills refer to the ability to learn from and with others, and they are manifested as the flow of information. People with strong network skills are able to attach themselves to real-time information flows and piece together the big picture based on this information. 2. Global skills. In the future, the starting point will be “born global”. Operating in a global world requires in-depth understanding of the cultures and ways of working in different market areas, special skills in international trade, as well as language skills.

27 Hakala, Tahvanainen, Ikonen & Siro 201128 Oivallus project: Final report 2011

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3. Business competence comprises the following skills: understanding and anticipating changes in the operating environment, people’s lifestyles and consumption habits, developing product and service concepts, sales and marketing skills as well as the renewal of business processes and models. 4. Technology competence in the future means that, increasingly, the objective will be to use technology to solve the customer’s problem rather than to find a use for technology. Many solutions are built on general-purpose technologies that can be applied to many purposes in different industries. New technology must be supported by a company’s intellectual capital, ability to innovate and management insight. 5. Environmental competence is needed in all industries: climate change and the dwindling of natural resources are megatrends that are changing the future. A growing number of companies are engaged in green business, i.e. offering products, processes, services, equipment and operating models that can reduce the environmental impacts of other companies, the public sector or consumers. Cleantech will be complemented by cleanservice industries, such as low-carbon lunches. 6. Service competence is seen in customer service skills, with good customer service closely linked to sales competence and often involving marketing and communication skills. Service development and productisation require skills, such as understanding service users and the use of services in different markets and customer segments. Services are increasingly offered online, which requires linking technological skills with other areas of service competence. 7. Design thinking, or designing by experimentation: testing and demonstrating are typical strengths of the design expert. In the past, design concerned making the product aesthetically attractive to the customer, whereas today the design expert has the ability to envision a product, service and user experience that delights the customer on many different levels, from its usability to its aesthetics. The focus is on the user experience. Design competence is a competitive factor even in areas where it has not played a significant role in the past. The Oivallus project argued for the promotion of creativity to be the foundation of all education, and sugge-sted that the skilled workers needed for working life in the future will be T-model experts, where the stem of the letter refers to deep substance competence and the horizontal line refers to the ability to understand other areas of competence and get excited about them. “Future education should focus on growing the hori-zontal line in T.”

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4. Competence foresight frameworks in the project pilots

4.1 Central Finland: New competence needs created by changes in local government and service structures The Central Finland pilot29 focused on new competence needs created by changes in local government and service structures. The region’s pilot partners form an aggregate, in which the regional development that is the responsibility of the Regional Council creates an operating environment for competence foresight, the regional capital Jyväskylä examines development from the perspectives of a broad reform of municipal structure and human resource development, and the Central Finland Health Care District creates added value for the project from the perspectives of developing operating models for the planned new hospital, the provision of specialised health care, competence management and developing service production. The operations of the new hospital will emphasise multidisciplinarism, co-operation and patient-centric thinking.

4.1.1 A regional foresight framework The need for foresight was highlighted in Central Finland several years ago as part of the process of drafting the national Development Plan for Education and Research (KESU), which reviewed the number of places for new students at different educational levels by region. While that process was largely focused on quantitative foresight, it soon became apparent that exclusively quantitative external foresight activities carried out at intervals of several years will not provide a sufficiently detailed overall view of the current situation and future of the region’s business life and labour markets. As a result, Central Finland begun to build a systematic regional foresight framework based on the continuous monitoring and production of information. The primary force behind the building of this framework was the Regional Council of Central Finland, with active involvement by the Centre for Economic Development, Transport and the Environment for Central Finland (ELY Centre, formerly the Employment and Economic Development Centre, or TE Centre) and educational organisations in the region. The Central Finland foresight framework is summarised in the annual calendar illustrated below (Figure 10).

29 Competence foresight in local government services – Central Finland pilot report 2013

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Figure 10. Annual calendar for regional foresight

XII

IIIIIX

VI

REGIONAL FORESIGHT PROCESS

2012

HOW IS FORESIGHT PERFORMED?

WHAT IS PRODUCED?

produces qualitative and interpretative insights into future developments and their significance to Central Finland

produces a common view of the future, scenarios of potential developments and wild guesses for years and decades ahead

describes the regional situation from the perspective of industry, employment and skilled labour, compared to one year earlier, six months ahead and one year ahead

describes and analyses regional business activity and economy using fresh, reliable and illustrative indicators.

describes economic trends from the SME perspective

KESKISUOMI.INFOA shared online platform for statistics, discussion and qualitative analysis

Expert groups that identify weak signals, analyse trends and statistics and formulate future views, for example based on the perspectives of certain themes, as well as the regional perspective.

A forum for regional operators to discuss and jointly interpret phenomena, statements, barometers and research results significant to the region’s future.

short-term future views prepared by local experts

expert analysis based on the latest statistical data

a survey aimed at SMEs regarding changes in the operating environment and factors affecting business and development prospects

SME-barometer I

SME-barometer II

Timeline II

Regional Economic Review I

Timeline I Foresight Forum II

Foresight Forum I

Regional Economic Review II

The Central Finland foresight framework represents a progressive approach to regional foresight based on genuine co-operation between various regional parties (including local government sector organisations). This comprehensive foresight framework is the result of several years of development, and to support it the Competence foresight in local government services project engaged in extensive and concrete efforts to strengthen commitment to the operating model between the various parties involved, including interactive workshops and collecting foresight promises. The Central Finland pilot’s framework represents diverse data collection, analysis and planning, in which the different organisations involved assume active roles that best suit them. The Central Finland framework can be held up as an example of flexible and comprehensive foresight at the regional level.

In the past, foresight activity in Central Finland was project-based, but it has now been made a deep-rooted part of the day-to-day operations of the relevant organisations. In the Regional Council of Central Finland, foresight has a formal role due to its statutory nature, with medium and long term foresight included in the job descriptions of two officers. However, foresight work is not defined as being limited to the two officers in question. Instead, foresight is a substantial part of the work of all Regional Council employees. One of the most important achievements of the Regional Council of Central Finland has been the participation of all personnel in the foresight work carried out by their working community and the planning of their own foresight promise, as well as that made by their own working community. A particularly interesting aspect of the Central Finland pilot is the development and implementation of a foresight-based approach to work, which reflects the extent to which foresight has become a deep-rooted part of day-to-day work (Figure 11).

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Kuvio 11. Figure 11. A foresight-based approach to work

Where and how do the foresight activities of different parties meet? How does the region form a shared view of the future?

How do I take the future into account in my own work?

How does my own activity affect the future?

What is the future footprint of my work?

What do I discuss regarding the future with my colleagues

at the workplace? Are we sharing information and forming a shared

view of the future? Whose responsibility is foresight?

Am I identifying weak signals and trends?

What conclusions can we draw from them?

Are we building alternative future

scenarios? What foresight methods do we use? How do I use quantitative data

and what conclusions do I draw from it?

SHARED FORESIGHT WORK

ACROSS ORGANISATIONAL

BOUNDARIES

STRUCTURED FUTURE SCENARIOS,

QUALITATIVE DIALOGUE

ON THE FUTURE

PERSONAL FUTURE

CONTEMPLATION

FUTURE ANALYSIS

BY WORKING COMMUNITIES

FORESIGHT TOOLS,

ANALYSIS OF QUANTITATIVE

DATA

4.1.2 Competence foresight as part of human resource planning In the City of Jyväskylä and the Central Finland Health Care District, competence foresight has been developed as part of human resource planning and in response to structural changes. The competence management and competence-based human resource planning tools used by the Central Finland Health Care District include revised practices for performance and development discussions. Operating models used for mentoring as well as internal and external mobility are also being revised.Ensuring the competence of personnel and competence-based human resource planning are central aspects of development efforts. Long-term operating plans related to human resource planning and ensuring competence are prepared in a broad-based multidisciplinary human resource working group. The health care district also co-operates with the City of Jyväskylä.

30 Kiiskilä 2013

The foresight promise developed in the Central Finland pilot is a tool that promotes participation and engagement. It helps increase overall awareness of foresight, particularly in the personal day-to-day work of individual office holders. The foresight promise is a promise that specifies how the individual or organisation will engage in foresight, what the individual or organisation will contribute to the broader foresight process, and how the individual or organisation will participate in regional foresight co-operation. An example of a foresight promise: In my work, future-oriented thinking involves planning and continuously scanning information to anticipate the future. I use various means to search for information: expert contacts, working groups, seminars and workshops, international contacts and co-operation with consultants. I continuously produce reports, plans, strategies and material for lobbying. I speak about the future in co-operation forums, to decision-makers and in the media.30

The foresight promise can be formulated jointly to have it correspond to the needs of both the information producer and the foresight process. In this project, and at the initiative of the Regional Council of Central Finland, foresight promises have also been prepared by other regional parties on organisational and individual levels.

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In the financial and operational planning of the City of Jyväskylä, the importance of human resource planning has increased substantially and the significance of the qualitative section of the human resource plan has been emphasised. The human resource plan in the municipal budget now includes a competence perspective in addition to the number and structure of personnel. Revised performance and development discussions as well as their related concrete outputs have been adopted in the organisation and reviewed in co-operation with the partner network. The more detailed objectives and tools for the development of human resource planning of the City of Jyväskylä include the following:

1. Competence foresight and development will be incorporated into human resource planning related to the municipal budget. - Qualitative human resource planning pilot in the municipal budgeting process in autumn 2012 - The human resource plan in the budget includes the following new section: Personnel competence development needs resulting from organisational and operational changes, and the needs of, and plan for, internal mobility

2. Managers are provided with systematic support for human resource planning

- A survey of managers’ needs for support in qualitative and competence-based human resource planning (master’s thesis, spring 2013, Jyväskylä University School of Business and Economics / Anni Puttonen) - An internal training programme (starting February 2013) will be used to train all managers and supervisors at the City of Jyväskylä in using competence-based human resource planning as a tool for foresight and day-to-day management.

3. Performance and development discussions will be used as a key management tool in foresight- oriented and competence-based human resource planning - Performance and development discussions between employees and their supervisors will become more substantial tools for competence foresight and supporting work performance -The organisation will adopt a common working community level performance and development discussion that involves assessing and agreeing on which competence needs are to be promoted, which competences will be developed, which will be lost through retirement, and what new competence needs exist - The organisation will adopt a common discussion model at the group and team levels.- The organisation will adopt a common exit discussion for leaving employees with the aim of collecting information on the loss of competence. - Management performance and development discussions will be adopted to support more foresight- oriented management - Managers will receive training on the revised model for implementing performance and development discussions (starting February 2013)

4. Internal mobility as a tool for foresight-based human resource planning and competence development

- The aim of the City of Jyväskylä (7,500 employees, over 500 different job titles) is to take advantage of the organisation’s multidisciplinary expertise with the help of an operating model for internal mobility. - Internal mobility will become a key method of competence development for the City, and it will provide more information on competence resources at the City level - Internal mobility will increase the utilisation of competences across boundaries between service branches

As of the beginning of 2013, two new forms of internal mobility are being used: reciprocal job exchanges and work shadowing. The reciprocal job exchange is a long-term method for systematically developing professional competence, involving an employee voluntarily transferring to a different position for a fixed period of time. Work shadowing involves an employee spending a day or two to learn about the day-to-day operations of another work community within the organisation.

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Figure 12. Frame of reference for competence foresight

One of the conclusions of the pilot was that the planning and development of customer-focused solutions requires a multi-skilled team that must provide an expert perspective on the following fields: information and communications technology, library and information services, property services, education, electronic learning systems and training provision.

4.2 Northern Finland: Competence foresight pertaining to support service personnel in educational organisations The Northern Finland pilot31 focused on competence foresight pertaining to support service personnel in educational organisations. The pilot partners were the Kemi-Tornionlaakso Municipal Education and Training Consortium Lappia, the Oulu Region Joint Authority for Education and the Regional Council of Lapland. In the frame of reference for competence foresight in the Northern Finland pilot, the focus was on the customer. Foresight into the future competences of support service personnel was based on a customer-centric approach: what types of support services will customers (the teaching staff and students of educational organisations) need in the future? Employees who work at the customer interface were seen as the key contact persons and good measures of foresight performance. Other key factors include service concepts and service processes, the management of support services, strategic management and changes in the operating environment. The model for the frame of reference for competence foresight (Figure 12) lists six common themes for competence development on the left. They are customer-based and cut across all contextual levels. The themes are 1) sustainable development, 2) contracting capabilities, 3) the development of learning environments, 4) communication and interaction, 5) multidisciplinary competence, 6) customer relationship management and 7) project operations. Internal entrepreneurship and coaching-style management are also included as generic competence needs in the box on the right.

31 Competence foresight in local government services – Northern Finland pilot report 2013

Sustainable development

Contracting capabilities

The development of learning environments

Communication and interaction

Multidisci

plinary competence

Customer

relati

onship

man

agem

ent

Projec

t-typ

e acti

vity

Internal entrepreneurship – coaching-style managem

ent

FRAME OF REFERENCE FOR COMPETENCE FORESIGHT

Customer service/ employee working at the customer interface

Service concepts and processes

Management of support services

Strategic management

Changes in the operating environment

CUSTOMER

Com

mon

com

pete

nce

deve

lopm

ent

them

es

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Figure 13. Rolling competence foresight process

Foresight data

Development discussions

InputsData

analysis and categorisation

Competence development

needs

Prioritising based on strategy

Methodology toolkit

- Scenarios- Strategic choices- Employee and external feedback

Strategy Competence foresight

Operational, financial

and personnel planning

Implemen-tation

- Personnel plan - Competence development plan

Feedback and

evaluation

32 Osaamisen ennakointi kuntapalveluissa – Päijät-Hämeen pilottiraportti 2013

The Northern Finland pilot developed a rolling competence foresight framework that represents an example of integrating foresight closely into planning and decision-making processes (Figure 13). The framework illustrates the integration of competence foresight into operational management through human resource planning processes and performance and development discussions. In the framework, the competence foresight phase was outlined as a separate sub process (green boxes in the figure) that supports practical implementation. The foresight process outlined in the rolling competence foresight framework also includes follow-up and revision. The world is changing, new change processes begin and old ones end. For this reason, competence foresight should be established as a recurring process in connection with annual or strategy period planning.

4.3 Päijät-Häme: Competence foresight in welfare services

The participants in the Päijät-Häme pilot32 included the Lahti Region Educational Consortium, the Joint Municipal Authority for Social and Health Services in Päijät-Häme, Hollola Municipality, the Päijät-Häme Regional Foresight Network and, as satellite partners, the cities of Kaarina and Paimio. The theme of the pilot was competence foresight in welfare services. The pilot focused on the achievement of regional objectives, and was refined into developing frameworks for service design, competence foresight and regional development work. The pilot partners’ workshop jointly prepared service design objectives and a view of combining foresight and service design processes based on the pilot partners’ own organisations and regional needs (Figure 14). Developing competitiveness was set as the goal of service design. The tools specified for achieving this objective were foresight work, ensuring competence, strengthening change management tools and improving effectiveness and performance.

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Figure 14. Objectives of foresight and service design

Change management tools

Organisational agility:

-Tools and methods for changing thinking

towards a more custo-mer-focused direction

- Supporting the changing of

the operating culture

Future services:- Highlighting customer

needs that customers do not know they have

- Outlining future servicesNot the same service for everyone, taking different

needs and individuality into consideration

Tools for foresight into customer needs:

- Including customers in the planning of

operations by using various tools

- Tools for anticipating customer needs

- Establishing a flat foresight process

Co-operation between working life, educational

institutions and end users

Efficient and customer-focused social and health

services:- Efficient operations,

also from the customer’s

perspective - Cost-effectiveness

- Reallocating resources from “unnecessary” and

overlapping services

Effectiveness and performance

Strengthening the understanding

and insight of decision-makers:

- Financial perspective as quantitative data for

decision-makers

A new way to highlight the human resources

perspective:- The aim is to have

multi-talented personnel and to take advantage of their competence

- Information arising from customer needs used

for planning supplementary training

Ensuring competence

Demand exceeds supply:

- Partial shortages of competent personnel

- Committing personnel to the renewal process

Cross-sectoral co-operation

in municipalities:- Participation by

all occupational groups - Finding consensus

- Fully utilising personnel competences across

organisational boundariesModern learning

culture:- Developing an

understanding based on the customer’s

(latent) service needs - The service

producers’ ability to ask the right

Service design as part of foresight work

Utilising information produced through

foresight- Anticipating changes in

the environment - Anticipating future

service needs Influencing

national-level operating conditions,

e.g. legislation

Dynamic foresight process:

- Long-term changes - Deeper changes in a participatory

manner, and faster - Committing customers

to development in order to improve

effectiveness

Weak signals from the operating environment:

What competences are needed over a time period of

5-10 years

Competitiveness

As the project progressed, efforts were made to establish the link between service design and competence foresight in more detail. Service design as a method is based on customer needs and focused on the renewal of service processes. As a broader practical research case, the pilot developed a service design process used in the service renewal of the Päijät-Häme Social and Health Care Group (PHSOTEY). At PHSOTEY, service design was approached from two directions: 1) future customer needs in a time of structural change, concerning the end users of services, and 2) PHSOTEY’s internal service design pertaining to competence development methods and operating models.

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Figure 15. Interfaces between foresight, competence foresight and service design processes34

In the project, it became clear that the service design process must include a competence foresight phase in order to determine the competences required by the new service concept and implement the necessary development measures in a timely manner. For this reason, the pilot outlines in detail the interfaces between foresight, competence foresight and service design processes (Figure 15). The figure shows the key phases of foresight and service design processes: inputs, dialogue, networks and outputs. The service design process produces inputs for the competence foresight process. The foresight process is the basis for both processes33.

The starting point for service design and competence foresight is identifying the problem and the need for change: perhaps resources are inadequate for producing services in the current manner, or the service fails to fulfil needs either now or in the future. The inputs to the process include written and oral sources, as well as an understanding of the service and customer. Engaging in dialogue and operating in networks produce understanding and common meaning for the required changes. Using these as inputs, the service design process builds a service strategy, which is used as the basis for planning the service’s operating models, products, premises, systems and customer experiences. These are the outputs of the service design process. The competence foresight process receives its inputs either 1) simultaneously with the service design process, providing the opportunity to produce radical initiatives for competence foresight that provide further inputs, for example for the municipal strategy, or 2) after the service strategy has been formulated, in which case the strategy and processes outline more detailed needs as inputs for the competence foresight process.

Service design1. Quality 2. Cost-effectiveness 3. User experience/ user focus

Radical openings for competence foresight

as inputs to strategy and influencing e.g. structures

Strategy and process

based needs for competence

foresight

Resources are not sufficient for pro-ducing services in the current manner

Service does not match the need now or in the future

Written and oral sources

Understanding of the service, customer and context and their futures

Service environ-ment, culture and life cycle process description

- Planning the service strategy and operating models - Planning the service, product or space- Planning processes and systems- Planning the customer experience

Service building and continuous development (channels for continuous customer involvement)

Defining a strategicdirection for theservice strategy

Competence foresight1. Context 2. Timeframe 3. Networks 4. Dynamics

Process phases

Foresight

Problem,perceived need

Inputs Dialogue,networks

Outputs

Inputs

Operations

Changes in operations, strategies and ensuring competence

Building common meaning (developing a foresight-oriented approach)

Concept and idea development

Understanding and analysis, future possibilities

Choosing the best ideas

34Saikkonen & Siikaniemi 2012

33Saikkonen & Siikaniemi 2012: The process description is based on the following sources: Moritz 2005 (service design process); Siikaniemi et al 2010 (competence foresight process); Horton 1999 (foresight process); Voros 2003 (foresight process)

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4.4 Capital Region: Competence management as part of the strategy work of publicly funded organisations The theme of the Capital Region pilot35 was competence management as part of the strategy work of publicly funded organisations. In the pilot, competence foresight was implemented in two separate cases. The City of Helsinki used future mapping as a tool for anticipating future competence needs in the buildings and real esta-te cluster. The City of Vantaa, in partnership with Metropolia University of Applied Sciences, developed compe-tence foresight by linking studies and working life together more closely in the social and health service sector.

4.4.1 City of Helsinki future mapping technique For the City of Helsinki, foresight into personnel needs is an integral part of operational planning and strate-gic planning for the future (Figure 16). Foresight work provides answers to questions related to key changes in the operating environments of City departments or public utilities, as well as which new factors the City departments or public utilities expect to materialise in the future, which factors will be reduced in significance, and which factors will be eliminated. The following objectives were set for the City of Helsinki foresight frame-work:

Figure 16. The foresight process in City of Helsinki departments and public utilities

Assemble the foresight group (“future workshop”)

Assemble the necessary background material

Produce change maps

Prepare personnel calculations

Report on the results of foresight

35 Competence foresight in local government services – Capital Region pilot report 2013

- leads to the organisation having competent personnel at appropriate numbers- offers a good fit with current strategic planning - provides the methods and tools necessary for qualitative and quantitative fore sight into personnel needs- is suitable for use in different sectors, departments and organisational units in foresight work pertaining to different periods of time- utilises weak signals transmitted through the customer interface and networks (signs of change) as well as innovations and development ideas from the same sources - produces innovative solutions for the organisation to make its own future

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Implementing the foresight process requires careful preparation. It is beneficial to appoint a responsible person or persons for the preparation and implementation of the process. Definitions produced in the preparatory stage include the preliminary problem, framing the problem, stakeholders, tools, process participants, timetables etc. Among the stakeholders, further definitions can be produced to identify information sources, information users, and the parties whom the information produced will influence (Figure 17). Some groups may have several overlapping roles, in which case such groups should be closely committed to the process. The competence foresight process should be carried out in co-operation with the organisation’s management, employees and employee representatives to ensure a common view on key issues and the commitment of all parties to the outcomes of the process. Using employees as “sensors” to detect changes in the operating environment is beneficial, for example when analysing weak signals. Employees have valuable information, such as contact with service users, which can highlight factors that are significant with respect to the future.

Figure 17. Competence foresight stakeholders

Ministry of Social Affairs and Health

StakeholdersParties influenced

Information sources Information users

Suppliers, partners

Customers

Recruiters

Uusimaa Regional Council

Uusimaa Regional Council,

Comparison of 6 largest cities

Major cities

KT, Association of Finnish Local and Regional Authorities

KTELY CentreState

administration

MSAH, NIHW

Ministry of Education and Culture,

FNBE

Educational committees

Qualification committees

City Board / Council

Senior city management

Financial management and planning

Information service and

research groupsCity

departments, public utilities

Educational institutions

TeachersEducation directors

Experts

Statistics producers

Keva,FIOHResidents,

Service users

Line management,supervisorsDevelopment

directors

HR

Committees

Regulators, funding providers

City Board / Council

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The City of Helsinki foresight framework is based on the future mapping technique, which consists of an ana-lysis of the operating environment and three successive change maps used to proceed through the foresight process phase by phase (Figure 18). Change maps facilitate the effective modelling of the organisation’s ope-rating environment, various internal and external variables, the potential ways these variables will transpire, and the consequences regarding the organisation’s future.

Figure 18. The phases of the future mapping technique

Obtaining and producing information for analysis of the operating environment (trends, historical data, weak signals, megatrends)

Change map A: Analysis of the operating environment • Alternative (plausible) future scenarios • Scenario mapping• Choosing the desired future Change map B: Changes in strategy • The impacts of the selected futures on strategic planning • Outlining competence needs

Change map C: Impacts on personneland personnel calculations• Competence review (old and new competences)• Task review• Quantitative impacts

Description of activity Foresight phases Foresight maps

Phase 1

Phase 2.

Phase 3.

Phase 4.

Preparatory work begins approximately one month before the first future workshop

One-day future workshop and its preparatory work(One day, or two half-day sessions)

One-day future workshop and its preparatory work(One day, or two half-day sessions)

One-day session and its preparatory work

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The first phase is analysis of the operating environment (Figure 19), which produces information on internal and external changes in the operating environment (megatrends, trends, weak signals etc.)

Figure 19. Phase 1: Analysis of the operating environment

Internal changes:

OrganisationProcessesPersonnel

Social and societal

changesChanges in the customer

base

Economic changes

Technological and ecological

changes

Security-related changes

Service changes

Political and legislative

changes

Weak signals

Demographic changes

After the analysis of the operating environment, in phases 2 to 4, the work is done with the help of change maps (Figure 20). In the second phase, the participants get together in a workshop to work on change map A, which outlines the organisation’s plausible future scenarios based on information obtained and produced in the previous phase.

In the third phase, the focus is on change map B, which illustrates the impacts on the organisation’s operations based on the future scenarios outlined in the previous phase. The aim is to answer the question “What impacts will the anticipated future scenario have on the organisation’s strategic planning?” This is followed by work on change map C, which focuses on the impacts of the chosen future scenario on human resource planning and summarises competence needs. The aim is to answer the question “What kind of human resources do we need to respond to future challenges?” This phase also includes the drafting of a quantitative personnel calculation.

A more detailed description of the City of Helsinki foresight framework is presented in the Capital Region pilot report.

External changes:

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Figure 20. Phases 2, 3 and 4: change maps A, B and C

Change Plausible future A

Plausible future B

Plausible future C

Plausible future D

External changes

Internal changes

Weak signals

Innovation

X XX XXXX XXX

XXX XXXX XX X

XX XXX XXX XXXX

XXXX X X XX

Change map A Future map

The future to prepare for

Customer, customer expectations

Processes and operations

Competence Tangible / intangible resources

XXXX

XXXX

XXXX

XXXX

Change map B Impacts on strategic planning

The future to prepare for

XXXX

XXXX

XXXX

XXXX

New / to-be-strengthened competence that is needed

Education or qualification level changes

Changes in personnel structure

Need to adjust the number of personnel

Other personnel impacts

Change map C Impacts on personnel planning

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Students

Educational institutions Employers

Points of contact between education and working life

LEARNING EXPERIENCE RELATED TO WORKING LIFEPutting theoretical knowledge into practiceProfessional development and the growth of professional identityDeveloping competences required in the labour marketFacilitating the move to working life

Promoting learning among studentsLinking theory to practiceResearch, development and innovation activityDevelopment of working lifeForesight of competence needs

Personnel availability and competence needsHaving studies correspond with working life Utilising new (research) data and partnerships in development projectsSocial responsibility and participation in the education of future professionals

4.4.2 Framework for co-operation between the City of Vantaa and Metropolia University of Applied Sciences The aim of the City of Vantaa and Metropolia University of Applied Sciences was to achieve closer co-operation between the city and the educational organisation in the social and health service sector. For the City of Vantaa, closer co-operation is manifested in the form of foresight-based recruitment aimed at facilitating the recruitment of competent employees for the city’s social and health services. For Metropolia, the co-operation provides an opportunity to support the entry of students into working life, as well as an opportunity to revise degree programmes to better meet the needs of working life. The benefits of having points of contact between education and working life are analysed in Figure 21. The highlighted sections indicate the areas that are closely related to competence foresight.

Figure 21. Working life related learning experiences (highlighted sections are related to competence foresight)

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In developing educational co-operation and competence foresight, the City of Vantaa and Metropolia Universi-ty of Applied Sciences used the study and career path model developed in the Opinnoista osaajaksi (Education makes Experts) project (Figure 22)36. The study and career path model strengthens interaction, co-operation and networking between the various parties involved, makes studies correspond more closely with working life and creates a more pro-student environment, particularly in sectors experiencing shortages in the availabi-lity of personnel. The study and career path model highlights the importance of goal-oriented co-operation, a systematic approach and the student’s learning experiences. The model includes various forms of co-operation linked to the student’s studies and the workplace’s operations. The model is aimed at developing work tasks suitable for students, taking into consideration the organisation’s service needs and the competence needs outlined in the curriculum. In the study and career path model, co-operation may be linked to aspects such as the development of services or working practices in the form of projects, school assignments and theses, training and internships, study visits, and the provision of part-time and fixed-term jobs.

Figure 22. Study and career path model

Points of contact between education and working life

Study visit

Project work and learning assignments

Work training

Summer jobs, part-time work, fixed-term work

Thesis

Career path

Study path

Work path

36 Opinnoista Osaajaksi -hanke 2010

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For the co-operation to produce the desired results, it is essential that the foresight information produced with regard to local government sector competence needs is utilised in the appropriate phase of the educational organisation’s planning cycle, enabling it to have an impact on the outcome of the education planning. The inclusion of new or changing competence needs in the following school year’s curricula takes place in conjunction with annual planning in the autumn and, at the latest, after the start of the new year (Figure 23). The planning of teaching for the following school year is discussed in Metropolia University of Applied Scien-ces’ working life co-operation committees in the spring. Final confirmation also takes place in the spring, followed by the preparation of teaching for the coming autumn. Major policy changes in education and research are discussed and decided on as part of the organisation’s strategy work.

Committees

Committees

Influencing the

planning of

educational content

Committees

Planning of

educational content

School year

Kesäkausi

Teaching preparation

Christmas break

MaySeptember

Finalising the next year’s teaching

plan

Figure 23. Annual calendar for planning by an educational institution

Summer

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Competence foresight is at its most useful in co-operation aimed at improving the extent to which student competences match the needs of working life. The objective is to move from a traditional educational organisation-employer relationship to co-operation involving the requirements related to student competence needs being shared between employers and education providers (Figure 24). The aim of the co-operation is to develop the content of education to more closely match the future needs of the labour market, facilitate the move from studying to working life and improve the end user’s service experience.

Service obligations, regulation

Competence

needs

Signals of changes in the operating environment etc.

Service needs

Graduates ServicesEducationalorganisations Employers

Students

Students

Service end users

Knowledge and skills

Convergence of study and career paths

New route for service needs

Figure 24. Competence foresight in educational co-operation

Shared learning environment

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5. A generic competence foresight framework

5.1 Competence foresight process framework Based on the pilots and the theoretical literature on the subject, expert consultant Kalle A. Piirainen has drafted a competence foresight process framework for the local government sector, in which the foresight and stakeholder processes are shown in parallel (Figure 25). The foresight framework follows the previously introduced general frame of reference for foresight (see Chapter 2), with the difference being that the analysis of objectives and expectations at the beginning of the process are purposely emphasised. As the framework was drafted from the perspective of the core group responsible for the implementation of the foresight process, the elements of the foresight process are highlighted in it. The framework intentionally separates the foresight content process and stakeholder work, as taking stakeholders into consideration is a key precondition for successful foresight and influence. The starting point for the foresight process is a view, formed together with the stakeholders, of what future intelligence is required, what the timetable of the process will be, and whose work the process and its results will serve. The core group of the process is responsible for carrying out the actual foresight work (indicated as the foresight process in the figure). For the stakeholder representatives participating in the foresight process, workshops (indicated as the stakeholder process) are the key interface with the foresight work. The following is a more detailed description of the phases of the competence foresight process framework:

1. Initial workshop The foresight process begins with an analysis of the organisation’s operating environment (see the City of Helsinki framework, Chapter 4.4.1). This is followed by the initial workshop, in which expectations are discussed and objectives are set for the foresight process in co-operation with the stakeholders. More detailed framing of the process and research questions for the foresight work are based on these objectives.

2. Processing inputsThe process core group collects and processes inputs related to the subject and pertaining to its own organisation, key driving forces, weak signals etc. The methods used to collect inputs may include surveys, seminars, workshops or the organisation’s own monitoring materials. The inputs are reviewed, reflected on and validated in the second stakeholder workshop.

3. Analysis & Interpretation & Foresight of competence needsThe selected foresight method or methods are applied in the processing of the collected inputs. Plausible future scenarios are outlined and used to assess future competence needs. The preliminary competence needs produced in this manner are reflected on and validated in the third stakeholder workshop. The potential need for additional information is considered. If necessary, the third stakeholder workshop may be organised earlier, halfway through the analysis and foresight process.

4. Results and their implementationThe final results are adapted into reportable form after the third stakeholder workshop. The final results are presented to the extended stakeholders in the implementation workshop. This includes an analysis of what measures are required by the identified future competence needs. The participants discuss further measures and how to put the results and agreed-upon measures into practice (e.g. influence roadmap).

5. Strategy work and decision-makingThe results of the foresight process are used as inputs for the organisation’s strategy and decision-making.

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Figure 25. Competence foresight process framework 37

37Based on Voros 2003; Kortelainen 2011; Kortelainen et al. 2011

Strategy development and strategic planning,

organisational objectives and

metrics

Surveys, semi-nars, the

organisation’s monitoring

data, scanning for weak

signals etc.

Trends, cross-impact analysis, systems thinking, scenarios, visioning, backcasts etc.

Reports, presentations,

workshops and workbooks

Foresight process

Stakeholder process

3rd stakeholderworkshop

- Reflection on and validation of analysis / foresight outputs- Determining additional needs

2nd stakeholderworkshop

- Reflection on and validation of inputs

- Determining additional needs

Implementation workshop

(4th stakeholder workshop)- Presentation of results

- Discussion and generating commitment

- Objectives androadmap for development/influence

and roadmap

Analysis

Initial workshop

(1st stakeholder workshop)- Discussion

of expectations- Defining objectives

Questions and framing based on the results of the initial workshop

Inputs Interpretation OutputsForesight of competence

needs

Strategy work and decision-making

Environmental scanning (analysis of the operating

environment)

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Figure 26. Competence foresight produces data for decision-making

5.2 Competence foresight as part of strategic planning Competence foresight produces data for multi-level development and decision-making (Figure 26) and is part of the broader field of societal decision-making. The foresight process produces data on competence needs for planning at the organisational, regional and national levels. Foresight by local government sector organisations used as the local government sector organisation’s internal competence foresight produces information primarily for strategic human resource management in the local government organisation, and helps target competence development measures in such a way as to support the implementation of the organisation’s strategy. Regional competence foresight examines the region’s competence needs in a broader sense. Participation in regional foresight ensures that the views and competence needs of local government sector organisations are communicated to and used as part of regional and national planning and decision-making with regard to both educational planning and regional development.

Utilising foresight data in strategic and operational decision-making

Methods, tools, processes

Implementing decisions and communica-ting views

Methods, tools, processes

Strategic human resource management in local government organisations: competence management measures - Competence development- Recruitment- New job positions - ...

Regional planning:- Regional Councils: KESU- Education providers: courses offered, new student places, curricula, learning environments, learning on the job, qualifications, new training- ...

National planning:- KESU, courses offered and course contents - Educational committees- Eligibility criteria, qualification requirements, applicable degrees- Agreements, development of working life- ….

Methods, tools, processes

Methods, tools, processes

Methods, tools, processes

Local government organisations’ competence foresightIncorporating the competence foresight process into strategic human resource management and strategy processes

Regional competence foresightLocal government organisation participation in regional foresight work and the utilisation of foresight data

- Regional Councils- Education providers: vocational institutions, universities of applied sciences, universities- ELY Centres- Other parties? E.g. foresight forums under Chambers of Commerce

Utilising feedback

Competence foresightdecision:

Identification &definition of datasources

Methods,tools and processes

Datacollection

Methods,tools and processes

Analysing and reporting competenceforesight data

Methods, tools, pro-cesses

Informa-tionin a usableform

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1. At the municipal level:The foresight process produces information on competence needs for the municipal organisation’s own strategic human resource management, such as competence management measures including proactive human resource planning, competence development, new work duties and recruitment.

2. At the regional level:The foresight process produces information on the competence needs of municipalities and companies for educational planning, and to be transmitted via regional operators (such as the regional council and education providers) for use in the preparation of the national Development Plan for Education and Research (KESU).

3. At the national level:The foresight process produces information on the competence needs of municipalities for use in the national Development Plan for Education and Research (KESU) process, education and training committee work, the planning of qualification criteria, working life development measures etc.

The following chapter (Chapter 6) discusses in more detail the utilisation of information produced in competence foresight efforts in planning at the municipal, regional and national levels. It is important to bear in mind that the foresight process itself is also a continuously developing process of mutual learning. For this reason, the development of the process should utilise feedback data received on the foresight process and its results.

5.3 On the practical implementation of the foresight process In the initial stage of implementing the foresight process, the division of responsibilities regarding practical arrangements and the preparation of the input materials should be agreed upon clearly: this should include who is to be responsible for process implementation in each stage, and what is expected of each of these parties. The more detailed organisation of the foresight process and the division of responsibilities between different units should be determined based on organisational attributes and the competence and motivation of the individuals involved. As a general recommendation, the process should include parties that participate in the organisation’s strategic and human resource planning that use and produce information on competence needs and personnel requirements. From the perspective of managing the foresight process, in carrying out foresight activities on a networked basis it is essential that the process has a clear owner and core group that are responsible for progress in the work phases and can provide quality assurance.

For foresight and stakeholder work to be successful, it is important to achieve a consensus on objectives and to take the expertise of stakeholders into consideration throughout the process. Stakeholder commitment to results is stronger when the stakeholders feel that they have the opportunity to participate in content production. Different stakeholders’ hopes, goals and expectations regarding foresight are determined and analysed in the initial workshop that starts the foresight process. This phase typically reveals many different and even conflicting goals and expectations due to the stakeholders having different interests. Goals should be prioritised according to the core foresight questions and key information requirements in order for the foresight project to be manageable and achieve its objectives. Presenting the foresight results and linking them to decision-making may be done either through communication or by incorporating the foresight process into the organisation’s normal planning processes. Influence through communication is primarily suited for working with external stakeholders, and for internal use within the organisation in foresight projects of a one-time nature.

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More depth to strategic management

Management system operations

Improving competence management

Ensuring strategic competence:

- Common view of the organisation’s

goals and competence needs

- Better internalisation

of strategic management

Risk management: - Informed outsourcing

decisions: what should be performed in-house and what should be bought- Developing the

competence required for the

implementation of strategy

More organisational agility:

- Create opportunities to do more with less - More innovation in

operations

Better implementation of strategy

Increases well-being at work:

- Easier planning of job descriptions Empowers line

management via the process

- Facilitates human resource management

Facilitates performance management - Recognising

needs Choosing indicators for competence and

its development - Improves

productivity and economy

Personnel training and development: - The foundation of competence development

- Planning the substance of

personnel training

Easier outlining of competence profiles:

- Support for recruitment - Prioritising

competence needs

Support for change in per-

sonnel structures:

- Career path planning

- Personnel planning

How does competence foresight serve the strategic development of the city?

38 Voros 2003 39Competence foresight in local government services – Päijät-Häme pilot report 2013

Despite the opportunities for organisational development presented by foresight, the foresight process may encounter prejudice within the organisation. The challenges to foresight both within the organisation and in stakeholder organisations are often related to introducing the foresight results to strategic management, and committing senior management to the foresight process. Management commitment is particularly significant in the latter phases of the process when the foresight results are available, as that phase requires willingness and resources for change. Another frequent challenge is putting foresight data into practice in human resource planning and line management, for example in the case of individual recruitment decisions. Presenting the opportunities provided to the organisation by foresight clearly and transparently from the beginning helps reduce prejudice. Being open to the views of different parties and taking them into consideration also helps achieve a consensus on objectives and commit the various parties to the foresight process. In some cases, the issue of prejudice has been resolved by the organisation carrying out training related to foresight, and incorporating foresight into its existing planning processes.38 The significance of foresight within the organisation is illustrated by the framework for evaluating the effectiveness of foresight developed in the planning phase of the Päijät-Häme pilot’s foresight process (Figure 27). Creating this type of framework in co-operation with the producers and users of information helps build mutual understanding and commit the parties to the process.

Figure 27. A framework for evaluating the effectiveness of competence foresight 39

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5.4 Choosing foresight methods

PESTEL

Creativity

Expertise Interaction

Evidence

Science fiction

Simulation gaming

Essay/scenario writing

Bibliometrics

Citizen panel Roadmapping

Morfological analysis

Konference, workshop

Key/critical technologies Stakeholder analysis

Quantitative scenario

Interviews

Cross-impact, structural analysis

Patent analysis

Benchmarking

Extrapolation Scanning

Literature review

Modelling

40 Popper 2008 41Adapted from Popper 200842 Glenn & Gordon 2009

Competence foresight can apply the same foresight methods as other foresight. The choice of the foresight method guides the entire foresight process, determines the input materials required and affects what form the outputs will have. If necessary, different methods and frames of reference can be applied in different phases of the foresight process. Research indicates that the average foresight project applies approximately five different methods. Popper’s foresight diamond (Figure 28) lists some of the most frequently used methods and classifies them according to whether they highlight human interaction and engagement, creativity, evidence-based analysis and expertise.40

Popper’s diamond can be seen as a collection of foresight methods from which a set of methods are chosen in a manner that balances creativity and engagement with expertise and evidence. In a rough sense, if the objective of foresight is to communicate the organisation’s goals and build a shared image of the future and the organisation’s purpose, the dimensions of creativity and engagement are emphasised. On the other hand, if the objective is to form a clear picture of plausible future developments, evidence-based, analytical and expertise-based methods are key. More detailed descriptions of the methods are available in foresight literature, such as the UNU Millennium Project publication Futures Research Methodology42.

Figure 28. Foresight methods categorised by their attributes 41

Genius forecastingBrainstorming

Scenario workshopSWOT

Delphi Survey

Backcasting

Expert panel

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43 Information bulletin by KT Local government employers and its main negotiation organisations (draft) 201344 Information bulletin by KT Local government employers and its main negotiation organisations (draft) 201345KT Local government employers 2013a

6. Responding to changing competence needs

The responses to the competence needs revealed by the foresight process include not only new recruitment, but also, and especially, retraining and developing the competence of existing personnel. Developing the competence of personnel is an established activity in local government organisations, aimed at ensuring that personnel competences meet the changing competence needs of changing local government organisations. The development of competence is an economically productive activity that also has considerable human value. It is also aimed at improving service quality and organisational performance. From the employee’s perspective, the renewal and development of competence presents an opportunity to develop oneself and maintain working ability in changing conditions throughout one’s career. The development of competence is also a responsibility of each individual in order to perform work in the manner required by changing competence requirements. Competence development applies to all members of the working community: employees, supervisors and senior management.43

As a result of changes in service needs, structural reforms and the weakening economic situation, it is possible that local government sector organisations may be unable to continue to offer individual employees the same type of work they have had in the past. However, as local government organisations are multidisciplinary operators, they may be able to provide work in other units or positions. This may result in a situation where the employee is required to undergo retraining to take on an entirely or partly new occupation. Enabling the supplementary training and retraining needed in these situations requires seamless co-operation between educational organisations and local government sector organisations.44 Future challenges will require local government organisations to improve their competence development practices to ensure that competence needs and the development of personnel competences are in line with each other. This is also supported by the Finnish Act on Financial Support for the Development of Professional Skills45. The aim of the Act is to promote the development of competence based on the service and business needs of the organisation, to promote the anticipation of and preparation for change, the extension of careers and the improvement of productivity and competitiveness. A further aim is to promote a systematic approach to competence development, as eligibility for financial support requires the preparation of a training plan and for the development of competence to be in line with the plan. In light of this project and previous reports, when outlining competence development needs and preparing educational plans, in addition to the substance perspective and specific professional perspectives, other competence needs must also be taken into consideration (such as T-expertise, changes in and needs related to customer service and other service operations). Taking different perspectives more extensively into consideration helps ensure the broad-based competence of personnel with respect to future service needs.

6.1 Developing the competence of personnel

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46 Finnish Ministry of Education and Culture 201347 Finnish Act on Regional Development, 1651/2009, Section 1048 Finnish Ministry of Employment and the Economy 2011a; Finnish Ministry of Employment and the Economy 2011b49 The Finnish National Board of Education 2013c

6.2 Educational planning In the longer term, the response to local government sector competence needs is to develop the qualifications of young people graduating from educational organisations so they better meet the competence requirements of local government organisations. For this purpose, it is important that local government sector competence needs are taken into account in national and regional educational planning, as this allows educational organisations to consider local government sector competence needs in planning the content of their curricula. The following subsections explain the Finnish system for foresight and planning in education in more detail.

6.2.1 Quantitative foresight of education needs The quantitative distribution of student places in Finland is determined by the Finnish Ministry of Education and Culture (OKM). OKM manages the distribution of new student places as part of the Development Plan for Education and Research (KESU), which is prepared at four-year intervals. KESU defines the key quantitative, structural and qualitative policies for education. For higher education institutions, the quantitative decisions concerning the provision of education and courses offered are based on three-year performance and target agreements. The target agreements for universities of applied sciences specify the number of new student places by field of study, while the performance agreements for universities specify targets in terms of the number of graduates by discipline and overall targets for new student intake. The licences for vocational education and training specify the maximum number of students for vocational education and training, according to which the education providers make decisions on the courses and training services offered in their respective fields.46

The Finnish National Board of Education, which operates under the Ministry of Education and Culture, engages in foresight pertaining to quantitative long-term labour and education needs at the national level. At the regional level, the regional councils have a statutory responsibility for coordinating foresight concerning regional long- and medium-term educational needs and preparing regional educational objectives as part of the development planning of education and research. In addition, regional councils are responsible for the coordination of foresight in the region, and evaluate and monitor the development of the region and parts thereof.47 The Centres for Economic Development, Transport and the Environment support the foresight coordi-nation of regional councils and carry out short-term foresight activity regarding labour and education needs in their respective regions48. Educational organisations (vocational education and training providers, universities of applied sciences and universities) engage in foresight regarding quantitative and qualitative competence needs to support their educational planning in co-operation with working life, for example through committees.

6.2.2 Foresight into qualitative competence needs

Foresight into competence needs differs from foresight into educational needs in that foresight into compe-tence needs produces outputs primarily in qualitative and verbal form, whereas the outputs of foresight into educational needs tend to be quantitative and expressed in numerical form. Foresight into competence needs produces qualitative competence descriptions: information on competences needed in future working life as well as on changes in work duties, working methods and working conditions. The purpose of foresight into competence needs is to collect information for the development of qualifications, study programmes, national core curricula and educational content.49

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50 Taipale-Lehto 2012; Finnish National Board of Education 2013c51 The Finnish National Board of Education 2013c52 KT Local government employers 2013b53 Finnish Polytechnics Act 351/2003, Sections 4 and 5 54 The Finnish National Board of Education 2013a

6.3 Educational organisations as utilisers of information on competence needs

Educational organisations play a key role in putting the outputs of local government sector competence foresight into practice. The competence foresight process can highlight new, even radical, competence needs, in which case the question becomes how to use education to respond to them. This may lead to a need to adapt or combine educational content, or create entirely new qualifications. As co-operation with educational institutions is the primary method for influencing the content of curricula, it is important for municipalities to bring educa-tional institutions into the foresight process at an early stage and actively participate in the foresight activity carried out by educational institutions themselves through committees, for example. In 2012, just under half (47.1%) of all personnel in the local government sector had completed primary or secondary education, while the other half (52.9%) had completed some level of tertiary education. More precisely, the percentages were 7% for primary education, 40.1% for secondary education, 16.8% for lowest-level tertiary education (such as nursing, engineering or vocational qualifications in business and administration), 16.5% for bachelor’s degrees, 18.3% for master’s degrees and 1.3% for doctorates or equivalent level tertiary educati-on.52 Due to the diverse educational background of local government sector personnel, vocational institutions, universities of applied sciences and universities are all important stakeholders in local government sector foresight. Vocational education and training providers and universities of applied sciences are under a statutory obligation to take the needs of the regional business sector and other working life into consideration and to respond to these needs through their provision of education53. The role of universities, on the other hand, is perceived as training experts for the national, and even the global, labour markets54.

The primary responsibility for the qualitative development of education and training lies with the Finnish National Board of Education under the Ministry of Education and Culture, as well as with the educational organisations themselves. However, foresight into qualitative competence needs has not been as well-established in the Finnish National Board of Education’s foresight activities as quantitative foresight into labour and education needs has been for several years. Nevertheless, in 2008–2012 the Finnish National Board of Education developed a national process framework for foresight into competence needs as part of the National Project on Anticipation of Competences and Skills Needs (VOSE) project. This activity was established as part of the Finnish National Board of Education’s permanent foresight activities after the conclusion of the project. In addition to carrying out the VOSE project, the Finnish National Board of Education has financed several competence foresight projects using ESF funding.50 Information produced by the VOSE framework is intended to be used for purposes including the development of national core curricula, the contents of curricula and the structure of qualifications. The foresight framework is aimed at meeting the needs of the educational administration, vocational education and training providers, educational institutions, universities of applied sciences and universities to receive up-to-date information on changing competence needs in working life. During the project, the foresight framework was tested and developed in three pilots: in the property and construction industry, day-care and the tourism and hospitality industry.51 The VOSE foresight process framework has been proposed for continued use in the foresight work of national education and training committees in various fields. The education and training committee system acts as an expert body for qualitative foresight in education, coordinated by the Finnish National Board of Education. The members of the education and training committees are selected based on proposals by labour market organisations. For example, KT Local government employers proposes local government sector expert representatives to education and training committees. One of the main tasks of education and training committees is engage in foresight into competence needs.

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55 The Finnish National Board of Education 2013a56 The Finnish National Board of Education 2013a57 Finnish Ministry of Employment and the Economy 201058 The Finnish National Board of Education 2013a

Foresight plays a key role in the planning of secondary education, particularly in the preparation of national core curricula and in the early stages of degree structure reform processes. The national core curricula for secondary education are determined by the Finnish National Board of Education, which prepares them in co-operation with key sector-specific labour organisations, education providers, teachers and students. Based on the national core curricula determined in this manner, each secondary level educational organisation prepares its own more detailed curricula.55 Due to their autonomy, universities of applied sciences and universities have more independence in deciding on their educational content and curricula. Foresight data is utilised in several different stages of curriculum planning in both universities of applied sciences and universities, but as planning processes and the division of responsibilities vary by school, it is impossible to make generalised statements on what stages of the planning process foresight data is utilised in.56 Due to the legal obligation they are under, it can be generalised that universities of applied sciences prepare the contents of their degree programmes in co-operation with the business sector, organisations and experts in the university field of applied sciences. As the curriculum planning processes of universities are more autonomous and their premises are derived from deeper in the world of science, they are not necessarily as closely linked to the needs of other parties. The Finnish Ministry of Employment and the Economy has determined the effectiveness of foresight into labour and education needs regionally57. As their most important sources of foresight data, educational organisations list 1) forecasts by government ministries and central organisations, 2) regional co-operation forums, 3) national statistics, 4) regional barometers and interviews with businesses, and 5) forecasts by research institutes and organisations. In addition, educational organisations produce their own foresight data, such as the results of interviews with their contacts, monitoring the sizes of age groups, broader reports related to their field of education, and various trend forecasts. As many as 40% of the respondents from educational organisations state they are not satisfied with the regional division of responsibilities for foresight, indicating that it is neither clear nor effective. The perceived problems include inadequate allocation of responsibilities and resources, the project-style nature of the work, the lack of common goals, the large number of parties involved and problems related to the flow of information. The Finnish National Board of Education has also studied how educational organisations utilise foresight data in planning qualifications58. According to the report, the prejudices caused by quantitative foresight are slowing down the utilisation of qualitative foresight data in educational planning. Nevertheless, universities of applied sciences and universities have a clear need for the data produced by qualitative foresight, which is why the special nature of qualitative foresight data compared to quantitative foresight data should be emphasised more in the future. Foresight data should also be distributed more extensively to teachers, as they ultimately decide on course content. The role of teachers as receivers of foresight data is also highlighted because the new needs of working life often require changes in teaching methods and pedagogy. The reports produced by the Finnish Ministry of Employment and the Economy and the Finnish National Board of Education indicate that foresight data should be communicated in sufficiently understandable form for use by the authorities that regulate national core curricula. Educational organisations perceive current foresight data as fragmented, with conflicts between information from different sources. Foresight data is frequently too difficult to understand, outdated and too general to be useful. Educational institutions are calling for clear, high- quality and targeted information at the right time and in the right place. Local government sector organisations must respond to this challenge by developing their own competence foresight practices in order to produce the necessary information on local government sector competence needs for use by educational organisa-tions.

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7. Future competence needs in the local government sector

This chapter describes the future competence needs of the local government sector highlighted in the pilots and the competence needs survey and expert seminar conducted as part of the project in autumn 201259 . As the starting point of the project was to review foresight and competence needs from a cross-sectoral perspective, the identified competence needs are also generic and broadly generalisable for the local government sector. Occupation-specific and sector-specific competence needs have been analysed in more detail in other reports. This project focused on the local government sector as a whole, and its results expand on and provide more depth to information on competence needs produced in previous studies, such as the ones described in Chapter 3. The future competence needs of the local government sector outlined in the project are categorised by three main themes: 1) diversifying service processes, 2) reshaping management, 3) customer-focused service culture. The identified future competence needs can be considered to already be in evidence at present, but their significance will increase further as the local government sector develops. The following subsections cover future competence needs by theme and discuss the challenges related to changes in the local government sector at a general level. The competence needs highlighted in the project are listed in more detail in the table included as an appendix to this report (Appendix 3).

7.1 Diversifying service processes In the future, local government sector services will be produced by an increasingly diverse set of operators. For this reason, competences related to managing and operating in diverse service processes are highlighted as future competence needs. These needs are classified into five categories: 1. Managing vast systems 2. Implementation skills 3. Interaction and network competence 4. Procurement competence 5. Understanding people and customers

59 Competence foresight in local government services – Local government sector competence needs report 2012

Managing vast systems will become an increasingly important skill as the field of operations diversifies and becomes more highly networked. The ability to see the big picture, understand one’s own role in the organisation and being familiar with the organisation’s operating model as a whole are key elements of managing vast systems. Further competences that are needed include a comprehensive view of the roles and responsibilities of different parties to service producer networks and the capacity to take responsibility for the effectiveness of interfaces. Willingness to change, open-mindedness and a practical approach to arranging services are also necessary.

Implementation skills are necessary in a world that is changing rapidly and continuously. In particular, cross-administrative thinking and implementation skills will be needed. Also required are the ability to learn across sectoral boundaries, including the boundary between public and private sectors, and the ability to identify, implement and distribute best practices. Awareness of different types of operating logic, knowledge of opera-ting methods and process management are also important future competence needs.

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Network competence is one of the most important future competence needs, as a growing proportion of operations is carried out in various service networks. At the heart of network competence are interaction skills: co-operation and negotiation skills, as well as skills related to the management of effectiveness. Further skills needed include the ability to manage networks, the ability to distribute and acquire information, and the ability to delegate and promote participation and engagement. Network competence also requires an understanding of different needs and benefits, as well as the more effective utilisation of diversity and different groups (including volunteer activities).

In the area of procurement competence, the role of legal and financial competences is highlighted. As service processes become increasingly diversified, there is a growing need for competences related to managing the procurement process, such as legal expertise, contracting capabilities, managing specifications of requirements and understanding the organisation of procurement. Strong financial skills competences are also required, such as the ability to assess cost effects and manage productivity and effectiveness.

From the perspective of understanding people and customers, the key competence needs are appreciative interaction, orientation towards dialogue and the ability to communicate and interact with various stake-holders and interest groups. The ability to challenge views in a constructive and appreciative manner is also needed, as is the ability to work with decision-makers and persons elected to positions of trust. In the deve-lopment of customer services, the highlighted needs include the promotion of stronger customer participation and engagement, as well as moving in a direction where customers have more responsibility and take more initiative.

7.2 Reshaping management Reshaping management requires people in management roles to have the ability to reshape their own leadership and management style and the organisation’s management culture. They also require self-management skills as well as an insightful, inspirational and empowering approach to management. In an operating culture characterised by the diversification of service processes and multi-party networks, the field of management competences is also moving from strong substance knowledge towards more diversity. In multi-party networks, the responsibility for smooth day-to-day operations requires management to be more consciously strategic, innovative and capable of utilising and developing different competences. The competence needs related to the reshaping of management are classified into five categories: 1. Creating meaning 2. The power of presence 3. Network competence 4. Strategy competence 5. Interpersonal competence Creating meaning is a broad theme for management competence needs related to strengthening the impor-tance and meaningfulness of work. People are increasingly seeking meaning and inspiration from work, and management plays a significant role in making this possible. Future competence needs in this area will include a coaching and inspiring approach to management, as well as the management of meaning and the direction of work.

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The power of presence is a theme that highlights the significance of management presence in the working community. Managers are expected to be present and take a leading role in promoting communality. Com-petence needs related to presence include interaction and sociability, having interest in the work of team members, taking insights and ideas from team members into consideration, utilising and sharing the skills and expertise of team members, preventing and resolving conflicts, and consistently giving feedback and praise. Network competence is also a key competence need from the perspective of management. Operating in net-works requires perception, understanding and management skills that transcend administrative, sectoral and occupational boundaries. Highlighted management needs also include the ability to create relationships and partnerships (bridge building) and maintaining these relationships. Otherwise the network competence needs are the same as in Chapter 7.1.

With regard to strategy competence in management, the ability to provide long-term and visionary leadership in a short-sighted world will be emphasised. Proactive thinking, foresight competence, insightfulness and the ability to show direction, the ability to solicit thoughts and ideas, courage and realism, and skills related to development and renewal are key future competence needs. In the area of interpersonal competence, the competence needs in management involve taking different types of people into account and better utilising their different competences. This requires skills related to compe-tence management and knowledge management, flexibility, coaching and facilitation skills, as well as creativity, courage and visionary leadership.

7.3 Customer-focused service culture In local government services, the customer, or municipal resident, must be the focus of customer service. The service is produced for the customer, not for the organisation or supervisor. The renewal of service culture requires customer participation in service planning, while respecting the customer’s right of self-determination and emphasising the importance of customer initiative also leading to greater customer engagement in service production. The local government services of the future require a service attitude that will enable friendly and knowledgeable customer service both in person and online. A new opportunity that was highlighted in the analysis was including requirements related to service skills in professional qualifications at the education and training stage. The competence needs related to customer service in the future can be summarised in four key categories:

1. Service attitude and service quality2. Understanding the service system as a whole and one’s own role within it3. Customer participation and engagement in service planning and implementation4. Utilisation of technology

Service attitude and service quality are strongly emphasised in the future competence needs in the area of customer service. Skills related to personal encounters are emphasised. Customer service also requires understanding the customer, commitment to resolving the customer’s problems, multicultural competences and language skills. The need for ethical competence is emphasised particularly in situations involving coercion and providing services to customers who are incapable of thinking about their own interests. Also required are the ability and willingness to unlearn old practices and the desire to develop services and one’s own competence. Understanding the service system as a whole and one’s own role in it is another very important theme in customer service in the future. The required competences include the skill to define the customer’s overall service needs and the ability to formulate a combination of services that is understandable to the customer. Formulating combinations of services requires having a population perspective, segmentation competence, fairness, making choices regarding values and utilising research data. All of this calls for the ability to separate the relevant from the irrelevant.

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Promoting customer participation and engagement in service planning and implementation requires the ability to adapt the service process according to the customer base, as well as strong competence with respect to including customers as participants in service planning. As customers are expected to assume more personal responsibility with respect to the use of local government services, the key competences needed include the ability to produce services in co-operation with the customer, the customer’s family members or other relati-ves. In the future, there will be a need for people who have the ability to work innovatively at the customer interface and the courage to move away from the traditional bureaucratic style of service production.

The utilisation of technology and the trend of technologisation are reshaping customer service concepts and creating a need for competences related to the use of devices and technical services, as well as providing instructions on their use. Service planning requires competence related to taking advantage of the opportunities offered by new technology and technology that is still under development. Electronic services, social media, the general proliferation of technology and technical devices and the opportunities presented by robotisation are examples of developments that require new competences and transcending traditional sectoral boundaries.

7.4 Towards the local government services of the future A key general observation concerning the results of the analysis of competence needs is that management competence related to new public sector operating models are significantly emphasised. Administration in the future will challenge the sector-oriented and expert-centric organisational culture on multiple fronts. Customer needs are increasingly identified as the central focus for service development, which will lead to multidisciplinary service combinations and potentially even to the merging of administrative branches. In addition to service development, the move towards networked operations is promoted by cost and outsourcing pressures. Together, they put pressure particularly on management by emphasising the need to develop long-term strategic insights, managing vast systems and maintaining active and regular interaction with the diverse parties that make up the operating environment. Management competence, the diversification of service processes and high-quality customer service are emphasised in the future competence needs of the local government sector. Competence needs related to general management competence include financial competence, process competence, contract and labour law, managing strategy work, managing innovation, change management and human resource management. In managing people, the theme of a dialogue-oriented and coaching-style approach to management and the sensitivity required to listen to the community are highlighted in particular. Besides management competence needs, competence needs that will play an increasingly significant role in the transformation of the local government sector include competences related to networked operations, as well as related financial and procurement competences. Networked operations can be viewed from the perspective of the internal multi-disciplinary service processes of local government organisations, but also in the much-publicised context of privatisation and service procurement. Networked operations involve the ability to create co-operation that transcends traditional boundaries by coordinating the activity of regional operators (including organisations, associations, private individuals, businesses etc.) in the development and organisation of services. Further competence needs related to networked operations include operational management and interaction skills (including building and maintaining relationships, sharing contacts, communication, promoting commitment and engagement as well as identifying and coordinating the strengths of the various parties involved). In procurement competences, the above-mentioned skills are complemented by the specification of procurement objectives, defining criteria for competitive tendering, making procurement comparisons, contracting capabilities, project management and project evaluation. Customer focus in the way in which services are organised is also highlighted as an important future compe-tence need. The social and health service sector, in particular, highlighted new ideas on developing and defining services on the customer’s terms. This requires the ability to use participatory methods, such as service design, and methods for co-operation with residents and customers. Customer-focused development also involves co-operation between branches of administration. Based on the survey, there are opportunities for mutual co-operation particularly between the social and health service sector and the education and culture sector.

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Other, more general competence needs in the local government sector will include self-management for every employee, the skills necessary for using the required information and communications technology, continuously developing one’s own competence and unlearning the old. Strong skills in the use of various communication channels (including social media as well as internal and external organisational communication) are also emphasised among the competence needs. The Päijät-Häme pilot highlighted the observation that educational planning and contents should emphasise information processing skills and internalising self-directed learning due to the production of information being so rapid, broad and fragmented in today’s world. This also calls for closer co-operation between educational institutions and employers to ensure that the competence needs of working life are communicated to educational institutions, which will make them better able to react to changing demands. Strong substance knowledge will remain important even in a period of change. However, it appears that sector- specific substance knowledge is quite strong in municipalities, as it is not as clearly highlighted in future competence needs as the above-mentioned more generic competence needs. The need for substance knowledge was highlighted the most in the technical, community management and environmental sectors as well as the social and health service sector. This observation can be interpreted as a need for future education, recruitment and career planning to take into consideration the development of general management competence, the right customer service attitude, multidisciplinary substance knowledge and competence related to networked operating models.

Going forward, there is also a need to broaden the perspective from which the future competence needs of the local government sector are assessed. Traditionally in the local government sector, competence development has been primarily directed from the perspective of sector-specific substance knowledge, but going forward, competence needs that transcend sectoral boundaries must be the main focus of development. This will facilitate greater consideration for how the customer’s overall service is formed and the acquisition of the competences required by current and future services.

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60 Meristö, Molarius, Leppimäki, Laitinen & Tuohimaa 2007

This report has presented the results of the Competence foresight in local government services project. The primary objective of the project was to develop frameworks for competence foresight as well as incorporating the foresight perspective closely into the strategy work and human resource planning of local government sector organisations (objectives 1 and 3 described in the introduction). The response to these objectives took the shape of the foresight practices developed by pilot partners described in this report, as well as the compe-tence foresight process framework created based on these practices and the theoretical literature in the field. The third objective of the project (objective 2 described in the introduction) was to produce long-term foresight data on local government sector competence needs and to highlight these competence needs in order for them to be utilised in regional and national educational planning. Information on competence needs was produced through pilot initiatives as well as a survey of competence needs conducted in 2012 and an expert seminar that supported the survey. These competence needs are presented in this report as well as in the report Local government sector competence needs published as part of the project. This report also highlights how information on local government competence needs can be communicated to and used as part of regional and national educational planning. Why should local governments invest in competence foresight? Because foresight into future competence needs facilitates more effective use of the existing and declining resources of local governments and helps create flexibility in the local government organisation in order to prepare for future changes. A special charac-teristic of the local government sector is that the main duties of the organisations are statutory and often subject to external regulation, for example via steering by government ministries and other political bodies. Public ownership brings a degree of stability to operations, but it can also cause surprisingly rapid changes in service tasks and funding structures. When faced with these types of surprising changes, organisational agility, learning and advance preparation are key to successful change management. The role of foresight for an organisation has been compared the role of spar buoys for a ship: they allow it to evade rocks and safely navigate in the desired direction60 . For this reason, competence foresight is essential in the local government sector, which is faced with changes in municipal and population structure, as well as global economic structural changes in progress at present and over the coming years. Competence foresight in local government organisations involves a number of development challenges. Effective foresight requires that foresight is established as a part of the municipality’s strategic planning and implemented throughout the organisation. Foresight must be perceived as a comprehensive approach that cuts across all operations and decision-making and is part of the day-to-day work of every employee. The objective of the Competence foresight in local government services project was to strengthen the role of competence foresight in the local government sector and to create frameworks for the concrete implementa-tion and application of foresight in local government sector organisations. In today’s world, it is customary to measure performance and success in both the private and public sectors using fairly simple financial indicators. If performance is only measured in the short-term and by using financial indicators, long-term investments and their benefits are likely to be disregarded. However, competence foresight and development are long-term investments in the organisation’s ability to perform its tasks effectively and with a high level of quality both now and in the future. The project clearly highlighted the need for foresight that transcends organisational and sectoral boundaries. This applies to boundaries between different municipal sectors as well as those between the public and private sectors. Traditional sector-specific foresight and development will not effectively respond to future service needs. Instead, new thinking that transcends boundaries is required. For example, combining the technology sector with the social and health service sector, or combining private sector productisation, sales and marke-ting competences with public educational competences could produce solutions for the renewal of social and health services and the export of education.

8. Conclusions

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The development work continues in the project’s pilot organisations. The pilot organisations have been satisfied with the foresight methods they developed in the project, and they will continue to incorporate foresight practices into their operations and develop them further. The pilot organisations provide useful benchmarks for other local government sector organisations. The information on competence needs produced by the pilot or-ganisations will continue to be communicated through the channels created in the project for use in regional and national educational planning. For example, in Central Finland a framework is under development to facilitate the use of information collected in the competence and development discussions by the City of Jyväskylä and the Central Finland Health Care District in the regional foresight activities of the Regional Council of Central Finland. On the research side, one outcome of the project was the preparation of a follow-up study at the University of Vaasa related to competence bottlenecks in the local government sector. Further research is also needed on diversifying service processes and the utilisation of future technology in nursing and health care services. Responding to future competence needs is largely a challenge related to the reshaping of management. KT Local government employers will respond to this challenge through local government sector management training, which is currently being prepared and will be organised as part of local government work, and by being actively involved in pursuing the objectives of the Working Life 2020 project. The efforts to promote the strengthening of competence foresight that began in the Competence foresight in local government services project will continue beyond the end of the project itself. KT Local government employers will disseminate information on competence foresight practices to local government sector organisations by various means, including the drafting of a publication on competence foresight to be published as part of the Best practices in human resource management series for use by local government organisations. KT Local government employers will also regularly collect information on the qualitative competence needs of local government sector organisations in connection with the quantitative assessment of recruitment needs. In addition, KT Local government employers will continue to introduce information on local government sector competence needs to existing forums, while also continuing to participate in national foresight activities and their development. Local government organisations have the primary role in the further development of competence foresight. We hope that the foresight practices introduced in this report motivate managers and supervisors in local government organisations to boldly look to the future and recognise the significance of foresight into competence needs with respect to the municipal group as a whole, including service quality, human resources and maintaining a balanced budget. The pilot organisations that participated in the project provide good practical examples of foresight into competence needs.

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Lena Siikaniemi, Director of Human Resources (Chairperson of steering group)Lahti Region Educational Consortium

Hannu Korhonen, Director of Planning and Development (Deputy Chairperson of steering group)Regional Council of Central Finland

Matti Poutanen, Development Manager / Päivi Mäkeläinen, Development Manager City of Helsinki

Pia Viskarinen, Labour Market Manager City of Vantaa

Torsti Kirvelä, Development Manager / Markus Pauni, Development Manager Association of Finnish Local and Regional Authorities

Taina Tuomi, Well-being at Work Manager Keva

Mirja-Maija Tossavainen, Labour Market Lawyer / Nelli Koistinen, Labour Market LawyerEmployers’ Association for Service Enterprises

Sinimaaria Ranki, Director, Strategy and Communications Metropolia University of Applied Sciences Oy

Annukka Lankila, Human Resource Manager Oulu Region Joint Authority for Education

Appendix Appendix 1. Competence foresight in local governmet services project steering group members 1 march 2011 – 28 february 2014

Sinikka Valtonen, Human Resources Director / Maija Hanhiala, Human Resources Director City of Kaarina

Timo Luopajärvi, Secretary General Rectors’ Conference of Finnish Universities of Applied Sciences ARENE ry

Johan Hahkala, Executive Director Finnish Association for the Development of Vocational Education and Training AMKE ry

Seppo Hyppönen, Councellor of Education (representative of funding provider)The Finnish National Board of Education

Riikka-Maria Yli-Suomu, Development Manager /Jorma Palola, Chief Negotiator KT Local government employers

Terttu Pakarinen, Development Manager KT Local government employers

Raija Keuro / Sirpa Sivonen, Project Manager (rapporteur)KT Local government employers

Leena Lehtinen / Laura Pouru, Project Coordinator (secretary)KT Local government employers

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Appendix 2. Competence foresight in local government services project pilot parties

CENTRAL FINLAND PILOT:Hannu Korhonen, Director of Planning and Development, Regional Council of Central FinlandAnu Tokila, Developmeng Manager, Education, Regional Council of Central FinlandAnu Huotari, Communications Planner, Regional Council of Central FinlandKirsi Mukkala, Regional Planning Officer, Regional Council of Central FinlandPertti Malkki, Director of Human Resources, City of JyväskyläSari Uotila, Personnel Development Manager, City of JyväskyläMerja Adenius-Jokivuori, Personnel Development Manager, City of JyväskyläEeva Aarnio, Director of Human Resources, Central Finland Health Care DistrictUlla Lauttamus, Personnel Development Manager, Central Finland Health Care DistrictTuula Kivinen, Director of Research and Development, Nursing, Central Finland Health Care DistrictHelena Hakulinen-Enroos, Education Planner, Central Finland Health Care DistrictPäivi Mäkinen, Education Coordinator, Central Finland Health Care DistrictRaija Tuohinen, Education Secretary, Central Finland Health Care District

NORTHERN FINLAND PILOT:Annukka Lankila, Human Resource Manager, Oulu Region Joint Authority for EducationTiina Räisänen, HR Specialist, Oulu Region Joint Authority for EducationAila Paaso, Education Director, Oulu Region Joint Authority for EducationAila Näätsaari, Director of Human Resources, Kemi-Tornionlaakso Municipal Education and Training Consortium Lappia Tuula Sillanpää, Development Manager, Kemi-Tornionlaakso Municipal Education and Training Consortium Lappia

PÄIJÄT-HÄME PILOT:Lena Siikaniemi, Director of Human Resources, Lahti Region Educational ConsortiumSoili Saikkonen, Development Manager, Lahti Region Educational ConsortiumAino Tarhala, Development Manager, Joint Municipal Authority for Social and Health Services in Päijät-HämeLeena Savolainen, Senior Nurse, Joint Municipal Authority for Social and Health Services in Päijät-HämeHilkka Myllymäki, Human Resources Director, Hollola MunicipalityTarja Rautsiala, Development Coordinator, Hollola MunicipalityMaija Hanhiala, Human Resources Director, City of KaarinaSinikka Valtonen, Human Resources Director, City of KaarinaEila Hulkkonen, Human Resources Director, City of PaimioJukka Mikkonen, Research Manager, Regional Council of Päijät-Häme

CAPITAL REGION PILOTPäivi Mäkeläinen, Development Manager, City of Helsinki Matti Poutanen, Development Manager, City of Helsinki Aino Lääkkölä-Pyykkönen, HR Specialist, City of Helsinki Maija Summanen, HR Specialist, City of Helsinki Pia Viskarinen, Labour Market Manager, City of VantaaTuula Heinonen, Human Resource Planner, City of VantaaTuija Hulkkonen, Human Resource Consultant, City of VantaaSinimaaria Ranki, Director, Strategy and Communications, Metropolia University of Applied Sciences OyJörgen Eriksson, Development Manager, Metropolia University of Applied Sciences Oy

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APPENDIX 3. COMPETENCE NEEDS IDENTIFIED IN THE PROJECT

Survey and expert seminar• Competence related to managing one’s own work• Technical competences; information management• Competences related to evaluation and evaluative data• Competences related to seeing the big picture and cause-effect relationships

Managing vast systems and learning

• Employee self-management

• Multidisciplina-ry competence (interface and between-the-lines competence and identification), T-expertise (in addition to one’s own core competence, having knowledge of a broader range of areas)• Internal entrepre-neurship attitude

Capital Region• Familiarity with operations, guidance and setting goals• Changing operating environments call for the willingness and ability to expand one’s own competence, multidisciplinary competence, multi-skilled approach• Tolerance for differences in diverse working communities• Language skills emphasised• Social interaction, communication and presentation skills• Planning and developing one’s own work • Maintaining and sharing expertise (willingness and ability, and unlearning the old)• Basic IT skills for personnel• New working methods, remote work, IT development • Basic IT skills must be strengthened for all personnel • In addition to expertise, the informatisation of work requires knowledge of infor-mation systems• IT / information systems competence • Knowledge management: information collection, processing and management / meta-data competence • Information modelling, format and technical competence• Producing electronic custo-mer and information services and information seeking skills

Common themes Central Finland Northern Finland Capital Region Survey and expert seminar

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• Competences related to managing a self-directing expert organisation; a coaching style of management • Managing multidisciplinarism• Flexible management of working life and job descriptions• Competences related to a coa-ching style of management; a respectful and appreciative approach to management, leading through encouragement and inspiration

Interpersonal skills and managing personnel performance (managerial skills)

• Managerial skills (see below in the context of a proactive approach to work)• Scenario discussions•Identifying and utilising different learning methods• Managerial competence, including the ability to discuss, evaluate and manage competence• Trust• Motivating employees • Reporting• Courage• Dialogue(listening, understanding) • Operations (management and leadership)

• Rules, roles, responsibilities, handling concerns regarding change

• Human resource management is highlighted in diverse working communities• Human resource management, managing diverse people (culture, age, religion, lifestyle)• Managing expert and specialist work (managing planning and project work)• Managing different service relationships• Management also requires strong substance knowledge in the field in question• Familiarity with operations, guidance and setting goals• Managing project work• Motivating and rewarding personnel• Change management and managing organisational changes• Legal competence, knowledge of legislation, monitoring and interpreting changes

Common themes Central Finland Northern Finland Capital Region Survey and expert seminar

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• Foresight competence, future orientation for development activities• Strategy competence • Evidence and fact based management, competences related to financial analysis and cost calculations, and using these in productivity management• Knowledge management; managing and developing the knowledge of personnel, knowledge modelling• Identifying and refining experimental and community-based ideas, activating potential future actors and utilising the identified development paths. Sensitivity.

Skills related to strategic and insightful management (management competences)

• Methods and operating models for responding to challenges such as excessively short timeframes, missing view of what is important • Foresight understanding → workshops, practical exercises, storytelling, weak signals, customer panels etc.

• Competence in productisation (cost calculation, pricing, legal issues, taxation etc.)

• Managing vast systems, systems expertise• Quality management, process and evaluation competence• Competences related to the development of operations and processes, managing development activities• In-depth familiarity with the city organisation and its operations, as well as cross-administrative processes• Human resource planning and foresight competence• Foresight into competence needs and competence management• Managing competence and development• Project and strategy competence• Financial and budgeting competence (financial administration, supervisors and projects)• Combining financial control tasks with substance knowledge• Business competence

Common themes Central Finland Northern Finland Capital Region Survey and expert seminar

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• Competence related to different service production models: familiarity with one’s own sector and other sectors, the ability to learn from other sectors • The ability to create co-operation between administrative branches• Knowledge of the operating logic of municipal administration and decision-making • Open-minded approach to development and service production that connects different branches of administration • Network competence; networking with working life and volunteer organisations, strengthening the role of libraries • The ability to recognise different management styles, organisations and their characteristics in co-operation across various organisational boundaries • Competence related to the management of the service network and service availability • Co-operation and network competence; managing complex multi-party networks and processes • Knowledge management and communication competence and networking skills • Competence related to innovative public procurement• Procurement competence and purchaser competence; knowledge of legislation and contracts, drafting proactive contracts, contract management and monitoring• The ability to create partnerships and utilise the competences of different parties in developing operations, partnership thinking• Competence and knowledge of the service system; the ability to direct the customer to the right service “Activities should be consolidated, one-stop principle!”

Network and procurement competence

• Co-operation between processes, quality management• Contract portfolio management and contracting capabilities• Project competence and procurement competence

• Organisational guidance and co-operation, expanding substance knowledge across administrative boundaries and building partnerships• Taking advantage of synergies• Outsourced services and competence related to the use of leased workers• Competence and guidance related to process interfaces• Competence related to the procurement of outsourcing services• Procurement competence related to expert and other services (familiarity with the service being purchased, evaluation)• Tendering competence• Purchaser competence• Contract law and procurement legislation• The ability to operate in and apply expertise to changing operating environments• Knowledge of partners, competence related to the work, work contents and operating methods of customers and co-operation partners

Common themes Central Finland Northern Finland Capital Region Survey and expert seminar

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• Communication competence related to communication within the municipal organisation and to its stakeholders; electronic communication competence

Communication skills and competences

• Communication competence

• Communication competence, skills related to the use of new communication methods and tools• Producing and publishing electronic information content• Managing social media• Digitalisation competence

Common themes Central Finland Northern Finland Capital Region Survey and expert seminar

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• The skill to take customer focus into consideration in administration • Service design and service productisation competence• Customer-focused approach to development work: customer participation and engagement through e.g. service design • The skill to promote the participation of volunteers, people in rehabilitation, the unemployed and those outside the workforce in development and service production• Skills related to encountering multiculturalism and the integration of immigrants• The skill of developing syste-matic collection and utilisation of customer feedback and needs, and evaluating the need for care/services • The skill to produce service plans taking customer needs into consideration, the skill to assess customer resources and to draw the line between the service and the customer’s own activity

Competence related to the customer-focused way of working

• Customer relationship mana-gement (including partnerships)

• Customer focus and service competence • Listening to customers, participation, customer encounters and interaction skills• Customer segmentation, managing different needs and expectations• Service design competence• Service design projects and service processes require competence• Service steering competence• Service steering competence regarding the services used (for young people and groups of young people)• New service concepts require planning and training characterised as on-the-job training • Global skills and cultural knowledge

• Methods for listening to the customer• From an organisation, occupational and production oriented view to a customer-focused approach• Consistent service principles

Common themes Central Finland Northern Finland Capital Region Survey and expert seminar

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Competence foresight in local government services project

• Utilisation of new learning environments; utilising technology, such as mobile devices and social media, in teaching, taking advantage of the opportunities presented by distance learning• Competences related to the evaluation, development and utilisation of teaching methods • Competences related to foresight and taking the needs of working life into consideration, incorporating foresight into curriculum development• Competence related to the development and customisation of study paths • Evaluating and developing qualification structures, eliminating overlap • Educational competence: pedagogic competence, skills related to educating children and young people, group formation skills, competence related to supporting parents• Competence related to using regional development funding

Supporting substance knowledge

• Admin users for applications (intermediary role), such as cashier systems, personnel systems, learning environments and systems etc.• Competence related to learning environments• Sustainable development and risk management

• Shared planning platforms, information systems, information services, system maintenance competence• Managing and developing open data• Technical implementation of mobile services• Data security competence, continuous maintenance• Use of technology for teaching, e-learning and teaching• Intellectual property rights for online materials• Knowledge of the municipal organisation and its activities• Competence in democracy• Risk management and security competence

• Multidisciplinary educational contents• Working life as the foundation for planning, “working life committees”• Work experience opportunities and presentations in upper secondary schools, closer dialogue

Common themes Central Finland Northern Finland Capital Region Survey and expert seminar

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ISBN 978-952-293-154-2 (print) ISBN 978-952-293-155-9 (online)