Community Growth & Projections · •We project grade 9 -12 enrollment to gently decline over next...
Transcript of Community Growth & Projections · •We project grade 9 -12 enrollment to gently decline over next...
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CommunityGrowth&Projections
PresentedDecember3,2018
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PresentationOrganization
• Purpose• Projectionmethodology• Projectionresults• Observations
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Purpose
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Purpose• Projecthousinggrowthanddemographicchangebetweennowand2035usingcommunityanddeveloperplans
• Translateprojectedhousinganddemographicchangesintoenrollmentprojections– Considertheimpactofopenenrollment
• Compareenrollmentprojectionswithexistingschoolcapacities
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ProjectionMethodology
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NeighborhoodAnalysis
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HousingProjectionMethodology
• Estimate2018housingunitsineachneighborhood• Project2020,2025,2030,2035unitsineachneighborhoodby:– Understandinghousingmarketandeconomicdynamics– Analyzingmunicipalandsubdivisionplans– Interviewingmunicipalstaffandrealestateprofessionals– Decidingrateandmixofhousinggrowth
• ChecksummedhousingprojectionsagainstrecentbuildingpermitactivityandStateprojections
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EnrollmentProjectionMethodology• Determine2018resident4K-12student-per-housingunitratiosfor
eachgradegroup(4K-5,6-8,9-12)ineachneighborhood
• Projectunique2020,2025,2030,and2035student-per-housingunitratiosforeachgradegroupineachneighborhoodby:– Reviewingbirthratesandagingstudentsthroughgradegroups– Comparingneighborhoodtoothersatdifferentstages– Factoringimpactofnewhousing,consideringmix– Projectingturnoverbysubdivisionages&2010-18ratiochanges
• Multiply2020/2025/2030/2035housingunitsby2020/2025/2030/2035ratiostoarriveatenrollmentprojections
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BirthTrends,2000-2017
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0102030405060708090
100
Source:WisconsinDepartmentofHealthServices
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RecentHomeSalesbyNeighborhood
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WCSDEnrollmentTrends
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1,428 1,356
4KAdded
1,476
97 132 229
-200400600800
1,0001,2001,4001,600
WCSDResidentEnrollment GrossOpenEnrollmentIntoWCSDSchools
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HousingProjectionResults
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HousingProjections
• Weproject890newhousingunitsintheWCSDby2035—or~50newunitsperyear
• 82%projectedtobesinglefamilyhomes
• ~60%projectedtobeVillageandTownofWinneconne(549units)
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HousingProjections• Projected~50housingunitsperyearishigherthan~30unitsperyearsince2010.Why?– Recentupwardtrend– Regionalandlocalemploymentgrowth– Slightlygreatermultifamilyhousing%– Goodhighwayaccessandnewbridge– Nextfrontierinregion– ModestboostifClaytonsuccessfullyincorporates– AppealofWCSD
• Still,ourprojectionsdonotbuildinanother2007-08crisis—significantrecessionwouldsetbackprojections
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HousingProjectionsbyMunicipality
• 338newhousingunitsinVillageofWinneconneby2035,or~20peryear,includingmulti-familyandseniorhousing
• 211newhousingunitsinTownofWinneconneby2035—or~12peryear—allsinglefamily
• Ofremainingmunicipalities,Claytonexpectedtobemostnoteworthyhousingcontributor(127unitsby2035inWCSDportion)
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HousingUnitProjectionsMap
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Housing/EnrollmentProjectionRelationship
• Whathappensinexistinghousingcriticaltoenrollment– Over80%ofyear2035homesarealreadybuilt
• Futurehousingwillnothaveasmanystudentsaspast– Moreemptynester,senior,multi-familyunits– Laterandsmallerfamilies,lowerbirthrates
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• Asaresult,mostdistrictsneedsomenewhousingdevelopmenttosimplymaintainsteadyenrollment
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StudentEnrollmentProjections
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EnrollmentProjections—Grades4K-12(AllSchools)
• BetweenSept.2018and2035,weprojectanincreaseof1914K-12residentstudentsinWCSDschools– Doesnotincludeopen-enrollment-in– Open-enrollment-out&private/homeschoolingassumedtocontinueatsimilarrates
• About½ofincreaseexpectedtocomefromVillage• EnrollmentfromtheTownsofWinneconneandClaytonisalsoprojectedtoincrease
• Remainingtownsprojectedtohaveacombinedenrollmentdecrease of13%
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4K-12EnrollmentProjectionsMap
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EnrollmentProjections—Grades4K-5
• BetweenSept.2018and2035,weprojecta92residentstudentenrollmentincreaseingrades4K-5,totaling7654K-4WCSDresidentstudentsby2035
• Resident 4K-5enrollmentprojectedtoapproachelementaryschool’stargetedcapacityby2035– RememberthatourenrollmentprojectionsincludeWCSDresidentstudentsonly
– Ifthecurrentlevelofopen-enrollment-incontinues,thenthecapacitypicturechanges
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EnrollmentProjections—Grades4K-5
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784
871
673 660 674 729 765
0100200300400500600700800900
1,000
Sept.2018 2020 2025 2030 2035
UnderTargetedBuildingCapacityBetweenTargetedandMaximumCapacityProjectedWCSDResidentEnrollmentProjectedEnrollmentwithContinuationof2018Open-Enrollment-In
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4K-5EnrollmentProjectionsMap
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EnrollmentProjections—Grades6-8
• BetweenSept.2018and2035,weprojecta51residentstudentenrollmentincreaseingrades6-8,totaling3846-8WCSDresidentstudentsby2035
• WinneconneMiddleSchoolprojectedtobeatitstargetedcapacity~2035,assumingonlyWSCDresidentstudents– Ifthecurrentlevelofopen-enrollment-incontinues,thenthecapacitypicturechanges
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EnrollmentProjections—Grades6-8
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383
450
333 336 337 361
384
050
100150200250300350400450500
Sept.2018 2020 2025 2030 2035
UnderTargetedBuildingCapacity
BetweenTargetedandMaximumCapacity
ProjectedWCSDResidentEnrollment
ProjectedEnrollmentwithContinuationof2018Open-Enrollment-In
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6-8EnrollmentProjectionsMap
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EnrollmentProjections—Grades9-12
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•BetweenSept.2018and2035,weprojecta48residentstudentenrollmentincreaseingrades9-12,totaling5279-12WCSDresidentstudentsby2035
•Weprojectgrade9-12enrollmenttogentlydeclineovernextseveralyearsaslargerclassesgraduatewithoutbeingfullyreplacedbyincomingfreshmen– e.g.,201812thgradeclasshas150students,while2018Kindergartenclasshas106students
– Newhouseholdstypicallybringnooryoungerkids,sonewhousinggrowthwillhavedelayedimpact
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EnrollmentProjections—Grades9-12
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646
819
479 455 450 486527
0100200300400500600700800900
Sept.2018 2020 2025 2030 2035
UnderTargetedBuildingCapacity
BetweenTargetedandMaximumCapacity
ProjectedWCSDResidentEnrollment
ProjectedEnrollmentwithContinuationof2018Open-Enrollment-In
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9-12EnrollmentProjectionsMap
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EnrollmentProjectionsOverview
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GradeGrouping
ActualEnrollment,September2018 ResidentEnrollmentProjections Change,
2018-2035Total
StudentsinSeats
WCSDResidentStudents
2020 2025 2030 2035
4K-5 791 673 660 674 729 765 +92
6-8 380 333 336 337 361 384 +51
9-12 541 479 455 450 486 527 +48
Total4K-12 1,712 1,485 1,451 1,461 1,576 1,676 +191
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ConcludingObservations
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ResultsOverview
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• Weprojectanincreasefrom1,485resident 4K-12studentsinSeptember2018to1,676studentsin2035—a191studentor13%increase
• 191studentincreasedividedasfollows:– 92moreelementaryschool(4K-5)students– 51moremiddleschool(6-8)students– 48morehighschool(9-12)students
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Implications
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• Residentenrollmentprojectionsalonearenotprojectedtotestschoolcapacities,exceptperhapsatWinneconneMiddleSchool~2035
• But,assumingcontinuationofcurrentlevelsofopen-enrollment-in:– WinneconneElementaryandMiddleSchoolswouldbothapproachtheirtargetedcapacitiesbetween2020-2025andmaximumcapacitiesby~2035
– Evenassumingcontinuationofcurrentlevelsofopen-enrollment-in,WinneconneHighSchoolisnotprojectedtohavecapacityissuesthrough2035
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CommunityGrowth&Projections
PresentedDecember3,2018